Transcripts For CNBC Closing 20240704

Ceo tim cook pledging the company will break ground this year when it comes to generative ai. Okay. Those shares have been in a bit of a slump lately, for the past six months. Elsewhere, in less than an hour, we will set you up, as well as looking at overtime. Underperforming tech, and why it might be a great thing for this bull market. Work with me here. Lets welcome in josh brown, the ceo of ritz holds wealth management. Its great to have you back. Its Piper Sandler today, which says broadening out. I would say, it feels like no contest, let broadening out. Over the last month, discretionary is up seven, materials up five, these are percent, financial healthcare up 4 . Tech is only up 3 . What you thing of the story . I will tell you the problem, people are looking at the russell 2000. They are missing the boat on whats really happening here. There is a bifurcation taking place between large and small, mid caps somewhere in the middle. That part is true. The question is, which one do we focus more on . We focus on russell 2000, which is smaller than the meal that apple just ate for lunch, or do we focus on how many huge, Important Companies are, as we speak, making 52 week highs or alltime record highs. From my perspective, dont worry about the small caps, focus on the big story. Im so glad you went there. I always go there. Yes, you do. Stocks in the last week, outside of tech that it made alltime highs. Hilton, marriott, booking holdings, tjx, ross, tractor supply, autozone, oreilly, colgate, costco, philips, american express, mastercard, visa, i could keep going. That is half the list, but that gives banks, can you imagine . How about today . Autozone tjx, otis, mastercard, home depot, costco, general electric, disney had a 52week high. Dont tell anyone. If these are the stocks that are leading the market, and they are, by the way. Apple is making lows. Its not leaving the market. Rsi is 37, not even in the game. Alphabet, somehow, looks worse. Tesla, 19 . Those are not the leaders. These new companies that we are talking about, not really new, new to the conversation, they are not part of max seven, whatever. They are going up, and from my perspective, that is the more important message, and by the way, look at equal weight nasdaq. Technology, writ large, it looks amazing. Look at equal weight s p. Its licking making higher highs. It may not be video strength, but thats what you want to see. Yes, there are a few thousand stocks that are really that important that dont look great right now. There is no real cause for alarm. I want to leave you with something. Jc perez had this out this morning. This is the bottom line for me. There are no new lows. Right now, 13 of the s p 500 making new highs, thats great. Its not higher than normal. Its fairly normal. The fact that there are no new lows is the point. If you are seeing 52week lows spiking, thats when you want to get concerned about the health of the rally. It does not exist. There is no list. When are you going to see that spike . Well, lets start with tenday lows, then look at one month lows, been threemonth lows. We will build up to the 52 week low. There is nothing on any of those lists, and until there is, i think the bulls have it, and i think thats a very logical way to think about the overall market. The russell is up 3 1 2 in the last month, but i do know, 25 , 30 of the company does not make any money. Its loaded with regional banks. We, for a while, we were using it as a litmus test for the broadening of the market, but i like where youre going, because over the last month, lets say the biggest winners in the market of the last month, in areas that should get more respect, discretionary. Ralph lauren is up 10 , tapestry of 22 . I mentioned chapelle play. Did you see abercrombie . Industrials, uber. Ford up 17. A lot of materials, healthcare has woken up. Chipotle. This is a very broad Cross Section of companies that are in the consumer economy, they are in the industrial economy. They are staples. There are staples that are making highs. Its not that this is a silver bullet, and as long as you have new highs from Large Companies you have nothing else to worry about, but if you have new highs from that broad of Cross Section of different sectors, industry groups, some cyclical, some noncyclical, some countercyclical, when you have all of that happening, what are you looking at . Seven billion dollar market cap companies. What signal do you think is there . The only thing that that part of the market is telling us is that higher borrowing costs are going to be disruptive to those companies. We all understand that. We look at that. This also means, according to barclays, that further upside in the market hinges on the story continuing to play out , that if tech is going to take a breather, that you need these other spaces. I agree. You need these other faces and names to continue to do well. I 100 agree, and one of the things that we are starting to hear from companies that are not tech companies, are the ways in which they are going to use Ai Technology to grow their earnings, so these are not companies doing gpus, but this is mcdonalds telling s, for example, a stock i just bought recently, about what ai is going to mean for their own efforts to become more efficient and serve customers faster and more profitably, wendys telling addict a ridiculous story, but whatever. Look, there are a lot of companies that in the second half of this year will have grown earnings that have nothing to do with tech, but the story they will be telling is, we are becoming more efficient because of all the stuff that we just bought for microsoft and from nvidia, so that is part of this ai story, its just not ai stocks. What happens if the russell actually wakes up . Oh, my god. Can that happen, though . There are going to be these lingering concerns. First read cut, jim. If the first raid cut is june, you dont want to be materially underweight. Lets just put it that way. These stocks could be coiling like a spring. That is the catalyst, when they would might wake up. What do i do with apple . We will circle back to the mega caps, and the one we said has not done anything for six months, and you could even say two years, it has been a sideways trade. Weve had momentum from the sales side reversed. That has been an issue. Now, we have the announcement about the car. Whatever. Theyre going to put more attention towards generative ai, tim cook saying as much today at the Shareholder Meeting. What gets the stock going again . On long apple, so please take what im about to say in context. I have been an apple will sense 2003 when we were wearing bondage hats. That being said, there are times when apple has a positive halo around it because so many things are going right at the same time. They hit an iphone cycle, a new product launch, et cetera. This is not one of those times. The halo is pitch black right now. All of the negatives about apple that have been boiling beneath the surface are starting to bubble up at the same time, and it doesnt mean panic out of the name, because its fairly close to record highs. Its just not at a record high, but people are concerned about apple because the omentum is not there in the share price, and the headlines are not going their way, so one really great example is how many people are trying to return the first wave of division pros. We kind of knew that when apple launches a new product, thats one of the risks. Journalists will seize upon the story, hey, maybe this thing is a flop . Its way too early to say one way or the other whether its a flop, that those headlines could get worse. Thats number one. Number two, burke shire, which was buying every share that was not nailed down, going back to 2012, last quarter for the first time, they started to trim their position, so they should trim. Its half the stock portfolio. Its a quarter of their market cap, but still, they are not active buyers of apple, and its hard to see why that might change, so those are two things that are going against the company right now. The third thing is, they really havent given you something to be excited about on generative ai, and as a result, they are not in that category of the mega caps that are still making new highs. Now, heres what is good. They are telling reporters that is coming later this year. Tim cook is now, actually, saying, generative ai, for the first time, he hasnt really been talking about it, they have a worldwide developer conference in june. I wouldnt be surprised if thats the moment they choose to unveil something specific. They claim they are already using ai, all of the devices are ai ready. He said today at the Shareholder Meeting that they would break new ground this year. We talked about active buyers. Im glad we have stephanie link with us today, from hightower, and the cnbc contributor, right there, you are looking at her. An active buyer of apple. Go off, queen. [ laughter ] look, i think apple is not going to go back up anytime soon. Theres not really a shortterm catalyst. There is a smaller catalyst in the near term, the april quarter, in that timeframe, and thats because i do think the quarter is going to be better than expected. They will have made progress with china. Services will stay double digit growth, and i think they are going to announce another 90 billion buyback program. Who knows . They could actually increase the dividend too, and i think that would get apple back on the radar for folks, and then we wait until june as josh mentioned, and we will get more information, and the news today about them abandoning the car. I think that is really good news, because they knew they couldnt win. You have 200 Global Companies that are focusing on evs and autonomous cars. You have 20 out there delivering over 10,000 cars each per year, plus. There is tons of competition. Meanwhile, these guys are still in their infancy, and doing testing. They made the news. They gave the announcement. Theyre going to use that 1 billion per year that they spent on the car to focus on ai, and that is going to be the story in the next couple of years. It may not be the story this year, scott, but the next couple of years, its going to be huge for the next upgrade cycle. The list that i read, josh, at the beginning of the program, about stocks making an alltime high within the past week outside of tech seemed to me to be the exact kinds of stocks that get you excited to do what you do every day in these markets, because these are your kinds of stocks, correct . I went down the list. Ge healthcare. Youve got industrial stocks within there. Parker hannifin, the costcos of the world, tractor supply, marriott. You are a believer in this story , and it probably has not gotten enough respect. I would agree with you. One of the things that we talk about a lot is the Economic Data , and why do we talk about the Economic Data . Because, it does have a direct impact to earnings, and we just got a gdp report of 3. 2 , led by 3 growth from the consumer. That is huge. That 70 of our economy. At the same time, we didnt even talk about this last week, scott. I mentioned it briefly, but we were all wrapped up with nvidia. We had a smp global pmi number, manufacturing, that when in went into expansion. That is also very much expansionary, and a leading indicator why do we care about it all . It does have applications to earnings, and so, tech earnings this past quarter were up 7 . Calm services of 9 . However, as you mentioned, healthcare up 8 , financials up 7 , and industrials up 6 . People are paying attention because those of the stocks that nobody really owns, and they were really, really cheap. I think there is a lot of momentum in those sectors, and thats really where i want to be. I dont not want to be in tech, because i have been buying some tech, but i have been trimming some tech too. You want diversification. Its exciting. There is no question in your mind as to what Piper Sandler is asking about, or suggesting, even, that we are at a significant inflection point, the words they used, that the market is either poised to top out or brought now. You think its the latter . I do think its the latter, because again, i think the earnings are coming through, and oh, by the way, the guidance was really good in many different sectors. What i do during earnings season, and you know this, i always have a little bit of cash on hand, and we talked about this last week. Ge healthcare fell 4 , random, no reason, so i bought some of that. Qantas services is still lagging the industrial. I bought more of that. Home depot, which by the way, since they reported that horrible quarter two weeks ago, the stock has done nothing but go up, so for me, im trying to Pay Attention to the direction of where earnings are going, and eventually, stocks will follow those earnings. It may not happen right away, but i do think you get your opportunities. Hey, steph, so glad to be on with you today. We are looking at companies that are within 95 of alltime highs, and then we are looking for rsis that are not overbought, and obviously, we want profitable companies, and ranking them by size. Then, ripping out all of the tech stocks. Here is the top four that are not nvidia. It is lily, visa, you have walmart in there. Walmart and visa, lets stick with those two. If those are within 3 of all time highs, walmart, by the way, looks incredible, broke above 57, which is the previous hybrid rsi is 76. The stock is absolutely on fire. Visa within a 52 week high. If those two stocks are doing that, people are in search of indicators. They are reading surveys from people who work at lightbulb factories. Here is your leading indicator. This is visa and walmart. I would argue that covers 90 of the consumers in america, right . If those stocks are doing that, what other indicators do you honestly need if you are trying to figure out, is this thing about the brought now and take the whole market higher . For me, those are my indicators. Where my wrong . No, i think you are 100 right, and its all about the consumer. We talk about jobs. We always look at initial claims, and those numbers are ridiculously low. Wages are just fine. Inflation is coming down. Savings rates are still elevated okay, they are down from their peak levels, but they are still elevated, and consumers are spending. You know this country. We are a nation of spenders, josh, and you and i are both guilty of that. To me, i look at all of these indicators the macro, and you are looking at the micro, and im also looking at things like american express. Lets look at Something Like is not going to look good on a chart, i know this, but target. They report next week. If walmart is any indication, if costco is any indication, and by the way, tjx had a great quarter. I think target is poised to move higher. Whether or not it does in the report, thats one thing, but its all about the consumer, and it such a big part of our economy, so i am right there with you, in terms of watching consumer stocks. Sorry, steph, lets set people up for a couple of earnings that matter a lot. Salesforce, josh, number one. This is a get lien story, like so many of the big tech winners over the last year. Operating margins have been absolutely killer. Between january of 2021 hen they were accused of bloat, through january 2020. Operating margins were 3 , 6 , 5 , and 0 , and this was problematic. That is not the story napping the last four quarters of operating margin for salesforce, 14, 14, 18, 18, why . They fired all the people and close down the expense accounts that were not there to work, but were there to schmooze. What you have left when you do that is people that are working, so they dont get caught up in the next wave of layoffs. Its unfortunate, but this is how human nature works. This stock, where its trading right now, close to making a record high, not quite terribly overbought, but those late 21 highs are in sight. If tonight the great report, they should punch right through there, no problem. I dont see a lot of resistance, and by the way, this is a dow component too. You crushed that one. Now, steph, to you on snowflake, which you have been buying. Yeah, its a fairly new position for me. I bought it when it was already up 10 on the year. Its now up 17 on the year and its going to be volatile one way or the other. I didnt bite for the quarter, scott. I bought it because ai is only as good as the data you put into ai, and they have the Data Analytics in size and scale. They have a new product cycle story but the number you have to watch is product revenue. It should grow 30 . Whether or not they do or not, i think they are going to see an Enormous Growth over the next 10 years, plus, but i think its off the radar for some people. It was for me, for a while, but i think its a powerful story and a way to play ai, which is a huge market, as you know. Guys, that was awesome. We mentioned the names of 40 stocks or so in19 minutes, and few, if anything, had to do with max 7 or ai. Thanks, great conversation with you guys. Lets start with chinas largest internet search engine, sing its shares drop almost a percent right now, despite a 6 yearoveryear increase, and that was driven by ai applications and advertising dollars, which is still its main source of revenue, but expectations were high going into this Earnings Report, and the Earnings Report failed to impress investors, who wanted a bigger revenue beat. Its also a tough day for urban outfitters. Those shares are down 14 after an earnings miss, driven by weaker sales, not at urban outfitters, but at anthropology and its free people brands. The stock ran 30 this year ahead of earnings, so expectations, like baidu, were high. Shoppers were not as exuberant as when they first came out of the pandemic. Christina, thank you. We will be back to you shortly. Were just Getting Started. Up next, the fall of the max 7. We are categorizing what is happening in the tech space right now, so join me next with why she is playing that sector, and we are live at the new york stock exchange. You are watching closing bell on cc. Nb ving tra even more ways to sharpen their skills with tailored education. Get an expanding library filled with new online videos, webcasts, articles, courses, and more all crafted just for traders. And with guided learning paths stacked with content curated to fit your unique goals, you can spend less time searching and more time learning. 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Well send you our exclusive bond guide, free with details about how bonds can be an important part of your portfolio. Hennion walsh has specialized in fixed income and Growth Solutions for 30 years, and offers highquality Municipal Bonds from across the country. They provide the potential for regular income are federally taxfree and have historically low risk. Call today to request your free bond guide. 18002173217. Thats 18002173217. Welcome back. Apple, not the only mega cap stock lower today. Alphabet trailing the group and adding to its losses for the year. Our next guest says bifurcation is set to continue. Lets bring in ankur crawford, executive Vice President and manager. Its nice to see again. This bifurcation you are talking about is byebye, mag 7, and hello, mag 4. That is what we are seeing right now with apple, google and tesla. Apple, amazon, well, amazon is in, apple, google and tesla, there goes the curve . Just for now. Apple . Heres the thing with apple. Apple has great prospects, they just have to deliver, and oftentimes, apple is a late bloomer, so they werent necessarily the first ones to a large screen phone. They were the first ones to think about a phone without a keyboard. So, its okay for apple to be a fast follower, and i think thats what they will be for the consumer. Its just not now. I would say, vision pro is okay. Its not fantastic. But, in the past, because of everything you said, they are not first mover, they are usually best mover. We give them the benefit of the doubt. Thats why the stock usually runs up ahead of earnings and things like that. Whats wrong this time . Why isnt the stock getting the benefit of the doubt when it comes to ai . I think, given the multiple, it has been given the benefit of the doubt, to some extent, because the multiple is not reflective of the growth you think the multiple is too high, the growth is too low . Thats right, and i would argue that meta is more compelling than apple today, in terms of the growth and valuation relative to apple. I think its more about the opportunity cost. If you have to put one dollar into something today, do you want the lower growth higher multiple or the higher growth lower multiple . And, you would always choose the higher growth, lower multiple. For somebody who owns many of these large tech stocks, are you concerned about the underperformance . Lets just say, over the last month, as other sectors have done much better. The underperformance of apple . Of text, as a group. Tech is the six the best sector over the past month, behind discretionary and healthcare. Is that something thats just Getting Started . May be. However, inside of tech there is a big bifurcation, so security and software is doing really well. Semis are on fire, and then there are other parts of tech like the i. T. Services companies that are doing poorly. Even inside of tech, you are getting it bifurcation of winners and losers, so i think its hard to put a broad swath and say, all of tech is doing great. Nvidia is doing fantastic. Well put. Its not all, obviously, doing poorly, but there is some thought in the market that it is primed for a breather, maybe nvidia included. It just cant keep going up to the moon every day. That would be nice. It has been. Dont be greedy. But, its going to take a breather, and some of these stocks will have ven more legs than they have shown recently. In all fairness, that probably has to happen, and in part, because if you look at the valuation discrepancies in other sectors today, they are widening, and usually, when we see that, we either have a catch up trade, as things lag, or we get a normalization of everything that works, and at this point, given where the economy is, and the strength of the economy, where Interest Rates are, i think we more have a catch up trade. You believe in this biotech trade . If you want to say there are pockets of speculative activity in the market, i hear people say, biotech is going bananas every day, and bitcoin is matched with that ign of animal spirits in the market as well. Biotech. Are you a believer . I am a believer. Big picture, longer duration assets are getting a bid, whether its biotech or other longduration assets, they are getting a bid because we are in a more stable economy, Interest Rates, if they are not going down, at least they arent going up, but you know, we also have last year was the lowest m and a cycle we have seen in 10 years, and so there could be a bid coming up just across the market. But, biotech has a really interesting nuance. In between 2025 and 2030, there going to be 200 billion of revenue that goes off patent for big pharma. That is really interesting, because the Pharma Companies are going to have to fill in the hole of these drugs going generic with something, and that is going to spark an m and a cycle. Welcome back. Its good to see again. You too. Ankur crawford, joining us again, a liz young. Morgan stanleys chris to me is back. He is doubling down on his bare stance, im told. If he doubling down or quadrupling down . Eae ill mix it up after th brk. We are back. The major averages underbid a pressure today after rallying more than 10 over the last three months. My next guest says we could see more profittaking from here. Morgan stanleys chris toomey runs one of the highest rated private wealth teams in the country. He joins me here. Its nice to see you again. I was like, this has to be the day. This has to be the day that chris toomey is going to sit across from me, or next to me and say, you know what, i have finally turned. I am bullish this market, as there is no other place to be and no other way to see it. You are shaking your head, no. Why . Im sorry. Just because you want something or think something should be something isnt what is actually going to happen, and i think if you look at, despite your previous guests conversations, s p is up 7 year to date, equal weight is up to and a half percent. Thats what the median return is about. We have gone up 25 since the october lows. Right now, i think people are saying, what we have gotten here, maybe i need to take something off the table a little bit. If you look at what has worked really well on the hedge fund side, you go law momentum, which is 75 , the max 7, and you go short, the small caps, the unprofitables. You look at whats performing in the last week or so, and you see china is up about 10 . Bitcoin is going through the roof. Some of these biotech names are doing well. Unprofitable growth is doing really well, so what you might see is some of these trades unwinding, people starting to take some profits, and i think what is really interesting is, we got a really difficult january number. We had a difficult retail sale, a difficult cpi, which we can talk about, the market sold off a little bit. What was interesting was, the names that actually did the best where the names that had been doing the best, so you didnt necessarily see people taking profits there, and in reality, those quality names continued to outperform. Okay. Almost everything has been going up, right . Over the last month. I will read it again, because i think its a story thats not getting enough credit, and people who are bearish or cautious dont seem to want to mention it. Discretionary stocks are up 7 in the last month. Industrials, the charts looked unbelievable, up 6 . Materials, up 5 . Financials and healthcare, up four and half percent, respectively. Tech is only up 3 . Ralph lauren, up 10 . I have 60 stocks in front of me right here, tried and true names in this economy that are hitting 52 week highs or all time highs over the past week. Not one of them is a mega cap tech stock on my list. Right. What more evidence do you need . You have the mag 7, which is mag 5, mag 4. There was time for them to come down a little bit and for some of these other names to catch up, but what i think is important is looking at the fundamentals. Going all the way back to 2022, the market was pricing 150 basis points worth of cuts, the fed was talking about 75 basis points of cuts. We saw 50 basis points in hikes, right . At the start of this year, we had six cuts priced and starting in march, and now we are at three. So, over that time period, we actually had flat earnings in the s p 500. Everyone talks about the fourth quarter, how we outperformed. We did, but no one talks about the fact that three months before earnings started, they cut estimates by 8 , right . This is your son saying, im going to get a d in math, and coming back and saying, i got a. This is not really whats going to drive performance on the s p 500. When your expectations were that he might get kicked out of the class, and here we are, because the economy is superstrong, strong enough. We have no recession. Multiples, you could make an argument, are justified at these levels because of the economy, the fact that earnings came in better than expected. Most of the naysayer predictions just have not happened. They havent. They havent happened with regards to price, but they have happened with regards to fundamentals. If you look at the s p 500, up 25 on flat earnings. Why is the multiple expanding . We are not cutting rates. Here is the bigger problem. If you think about the fact that we are going to be cutting rates the way the market is pricing it, what happens . We dont need it. No, thats what we dont need now, that you have 800 billion worth of corporate debt that is rolling over this year. You have over 1. 2 trillion of corporate debt rolling over next year. 4 trillion until 2030. We are going to get rate cuts, but when are we going to get them . These companies are running out of cash. You look at the consumer, the consumer has 1. 2 trillion worth of debt that hey are paying 25 on, so everyones talking about how great the consumer is. He is just extending, waiting for these rate cuts, the rate cuts are getting pushed back further and further, and as much as powell would want to cut, hes not, he is concerned about inflation because he seeing it, and because there is precedent if you look back at the 70s. Its hard to get this perfectly right with regards to inflation. What i want to be paying a premium for the market . What i want to be bidding up the stocks right now . Not necessarily. What you want to be doing why the stock market continues to go higher . I would stay in quality. The benefit is, you have alternatives. You have a 10 year in the 4 to 5 range can be a private credit paying you 10 , you have triple net lease paying seven to 10 , so you have alternatives to equities. Is jpmorgan quality . Is berkshire quality . Is marriott quality . The quality names are going to continue to do well, so this is not about eliminating all of your equity exposure. You look at Warren Buffetts letter this weekend, he has 167 billion in cash. He is waiting around for things to get cheaper to put money to work. My only advice is to say, dont be afraid to take some profits here, sit on some cash, and wait for the market to come to you. Hes not saying, im not buying anything because the landscape sucks. He is saying, i cant find anything worthy of buying, because prices are high everywhere. Well, so, halfdozen, six halfdozen of the other. In our mind, the fact of the matter is, there are a lot of things that are not being priced in the market. The market is priced for perfection, in our minds, if youre going to focus in on return of capital before return on capital, it makes sense to be prudent here, and not add too much risk to your portfolio. We will leave it there. I always like to debate with you, chris toomey. Thanks for being back. Morgan stanley management director of private wealth management, the Founding Partner of Morgan Stanley global. Up next, we are tracking the biggest movers as we headed to the close. Kristina partsinevelo is standing by. Lets talk about the department of justice launching an antitrust probe into united health, and the bitcoin rally causing an outage at one firm. Those movers, next. Oh no, a rash. Maybe itll go away. Awww, how am i going to find a doctor ill actually like . Is that a qr code . Dr. Stafford makes you feel at ease. Thanks rash youve got more options than you know. Book now. We are about 15 out from the closing. Lets get back to Kristina Partsinevelo now for look at the key stocks moving into the close. Lets start with cryptocurrency, because bitcoin did for us 63,000 yesterday for the First Time Since 2021. You can see its down around 60,000, but investors are hoping to reach that alltime high of 69,000, especially before this years half inning in quarter two, when the reward for bitcoin is split to reduce the amount for minors and maintain scarcity. Bitcoin tends to be a barometer of risk appetite, and the rally even caused an outage on coin base today. Speaking of not united health, lets talk about united health, a big drag on the dow after the department of justice launches an antitrust investigation into the company. Investigators are looking into the relationship between its Insurance Unit and its Health Services arm, which owns physician groups. The move is part of the Biden Administration push to lower drug prices. Shares are down about 30 . I got through it, scott. Yes, you did. As always, thank you so much, Kristina Partsinevelo. Still ahead, we get you set up for salesforce, the Software Giant reporting results in overtime. We will tell you what to watch for, coming up, but first, a quick message as cnbc celebrates black heritage. Its truly an homage to reflect on the stories of those who are broken barriers and inspired the next generation. It was representation like ursula burns that allowed me to see the possibilities of becoming a president and ceo of fedex. I humbly understand my assignment of responsibility to have a positive impact through my conibio, trutnsin paving the way for our community. Do you have a Life Insurance policy you no longer need . Now you can sell your policy even a term policy for an immediate cash payment. Call Coventry Direct to learn more. We thought we had planned carefully for our retirement. But we quickly realized we needed a way to supplement our income. 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Visit indeed. Com hire welcome back. Today, we announced cnbcs firstever changemakers listed 50 women transforming business and philanthropy. You can find all 50 changemakers at cnbc. Com changemakers, and learn more about the event we are hosting to celebrate these women on april 18th. Coming up, salesforce and paramount reporting at theop t h tofheour. We will tell you what to watch for when those numbers hit in overtime. That and much more, when we take you inside the market zone. Your record label is taking off. But so is your sound engineer. You need to hire. I need indeed. Indeed you do. Indeed instant match instantly delivers quality candidates matching your job description. Visit indeed. Com hire we are now in the closing market zone. Mike santilli is here to break down the crucial moments of this trading day, 2 releases out in overtime that we are watching early. Kate rooney on salesforce per Julia Boorstin on paramount. We are going to turn to pce. Maybe that is one of the key determining factors as to whether the broadening of this market, which is legit, continues. Its a matter of whether the market has been hesitating ahead of that, maybe as a bulk of earnings came through, and that is a big macro touch point. We are at an interesting moment where the s p has really been tethered to levels that first got to to weeks ago. Right in the 5050 area, and you have been mentioned, the tape action is healthy underneath. There is a lot of participation. I dont think, even though its a bull market, its acting like a bull market, that means the overshoots happened to the upside. The persistence has been giving it the benefit of the doubt. All that said, it does not give me a lot of conviction to say that the next 3 or 5 is up versus down, just because of the seasonal stuff, the positioning stuff, the fact you are starting to see a little bit of the aggressive, fast money action on the fringes of the market. Like biotech, and bitcoin, even, right . Bitcoin alone today was unbelievable. It was a 10 range or something. All that stuff shows you there is this high energy flow in the market. Its okay. This is what happens at the latter phases, but you have this thing where, you have to find the next nvidia. We have to find the next chipotle, and they are all ripping. I think that can be fine. It still part of the rotational story, but it does leave me a little bit cautious about whether that tone can just continue without getting a little bit of a check on it. Tech earnings have been good. We are going to get another check from salesforce, kate rooney in overtime, what should we expect here . Salesforce is seen as a barometer for Enterprise Spending and front office budget, so the key Software Report to watch. Watch 2025 guidance. Will they indicate acceleration in booking, for example, for the prior quarter, watch cr p. O. , that margins are key as well. And then, Revenue Growth rates as well. The ceo asked about what he has seen in the market. That will be closely watched, and any comments about ai. What is the pipeline for salesforce when it comes to generative ai, and how that will affect spending . That is among a top pick at Morgan Stanley. Analysts their point out salesforce have been trading at roughly a 57 discount to large cap peers like microsoft and adobe. Its up 14 or so, year to date. It is important for all of the reasons kate said, and its a nice time for this report. If you look multiyear, it has gone back to its price highs, just about, but on a cash yield basis, which is how you have to look at a big software company, its still less expensive than it was at the high. The margin work is in there, and so, i dont think that, necessarily, it is priced all that aggressively, relative to the fundamentals, if they can keep on this pace of delivering, as they have been. Then, there is paramount. Julia boorstin, what are you looking for . All eyes will be on its streaming division, along with what the company could say about potential m and a. Paramount is expected to report declining revenue, but the most important area to watch is its direct to consumer division, which is expected to report a loss of nearly 550 million. That would be more han double the loss in the third quarter, but a slight improvement from the year ago period. The division is expected to add about 4 million subscribers. That is more than 1 million more than it added in q3, so the question is whether the streaming divisions growth can compensate for losses or declines in paramounts traditional businesses, and also how those pressures on the traditional Media Business impact its outlook on potentially selling the company. Scott. Julia boorstin, thank you so much. We will see you in overtime with that. Any installation of sorts around the pce, because of hot cpi, hot ppi . We sort of expect this, maybe a worse than expected number, or at least, hotter, and we will explain it away. We knew it was coming. I have been toying with that idea, but also, it could end up being the third one if it makes a trend. It, obviously, could break either way. Im interested to see how the market digests it, because what the market has managed to digest well is yields going up to three month highs, depending on what you are looking at. That has been okay. We have repriced to the fed curve pretty aggressively. It doesnt look like we are getting 5 cuts. We may be only getting three. Who knows what theyre going to start . The stock market has been okay with it because of the reasons, because of how the economy has behaved. I think we should be able to, generally, look for a quirky hot number, but you will have plenty of people who are anticipating this idea that the disinflation or a trend has been interrupted in a bigger way, and then you are going to have people say, maybe we do have to slow the economy to get there. I dont know. That is the short answer to that, but the bond market seems to be registering apprehension about this. If you look at the inflation break evens based on market action, they have been trending higher. They have gone from 2 on the fiveyear anticipated inflation to 4 . Still benign, but it has changed. Yields have made their moves already, then holding steady, to the degree that we are talking about, stocks, i havent really been mentioning tick by tick of what the tenure has been doing. It has been hanging out. The other part of it is, credit spreads keep getting tighter, so yields are not going up. They are going up on treasuries more, and that is keeping the corporate financial conditions very easy, and even to the point where, massive issuance of corporate debt in february, really, near record, and yet, the market didnt even have a hiccup about it. The bell is going to bring in a moment. Not flat, but not that far from it [ bell tolling ]either. I will run you through it tomorrow when i see you on closing bell. [ bell tolling ] [ cheers and applause ] the dow extending its losing streak to a third day. Stocks in general, taking a breather head of that key pce inflation data that we get tomorrow morning. That is the scorecard on wall street, but the action is just Getting Started. Welcome to closing bell overtime. The russell 2000 is having a win streak. The biggest drags today. Now, get ready for another barrage of overtime earnings. We will break down results from salesforce, snowflake,