Everyone yesterday we launched an alert system that will provide timely updates for covid19 and other critical kindness other guidance from the governors office. Text lacovidease to 67283. Already one heard thousand people across00 the state have signed up for alert. Additional information is available at coronavirus. L. A. Gov. This point i will ask the doctor to come up and explain more about the chart that was up there with the modeling because i know some of you were wanting more information about our modeling. Thank you, governor. Said, since the earliest cases in the state we have been working at the the academic side and with health items and insurers to build a model that would help us understand what to expect and how to reject what covid19 would mean for the state when it comes to our most Important Health resources that need to be there for those most severely affected by covid19. That is hospital beds and ventilators. You have been hearing us talk a lot about those. The governor also noted we recently heard from National Leadership in the white house about a model they released. This model was focused on looking at the number of cases across the nation on a daily basis and using, essentially fitting that to a mathematical equation. To see how things are changing over time. In the model we are sharing here, this is slightly different from that because this is a model based on the actual dynamics of the way the infection works. This is the standard way that we and Public Health look at an epidemic. It models out a population that is susceptible to infection and looks at the model as a pop elation becomes infected and we see the numbers start to rise. As the population becomes infected. Eventually it reaches a peak where there is nobody else able to be infected easily and then those people are then removed from the model, either because they recover and they are better 370 louisiana to have, they die, and are no longer able to be infected. So that is why see the lines come down. So there are variety of scenarios depending on how we react to covid19 to stop the spread of the virus. Because we do not have treatment that we know can stop covid19, our only weapon we really have is social distancing at home. Not coming into contact with somebody with covid19. We know from international and national and state data that on average, if an individual has covid19, they are at risk of transmitting that to 23 people. That leadschecked, to a rapid rise in cases. If you look at the graph, the thin red line is the baseline that depicts that scenario. Where anyone who has the virus is not doing much beyond potentially staying home if they are superiorly severely l, to stop the spread of the virus. To plot the number of daily hospitalizations on the vertical access and showing your Time Starting in march with our first cases and going through until march of the next year. So this is a yearlong look. When we look at that baseline, if we had done nothing, what we see is that by early may, the would be at the hospitals, in orleans and Jefferson Parish where they have been seeing upwards of 3700 per day. That is not total hospitalized, that is people needing to be hospitalized every day. And the day before it was 3600. These numbers are staggering. And at a certain point it would decrease. Unfortunately we know that the capacity to in our region would not be able to accept that. That is a situation where we would have people showing up to the hospitals and hospitals not having access to necessary therapies like ventilators, and highlevel people passing away, higher than we are seeing. We have taken measures through the governors orders to change how likely it is that anyone person with covid would infect somebody else. It is incumbent on us to act on those orders, to not go out and annette with other people or spread the virus. That is what is predicted here on the other graph. I will first take you through the blue line. That is next to where it says effective social distancing. If you remember, after our first week of known cases, we put in social distancing roles and people were encouraged to stay home when they were as sick and to wash their hands and cough and sneeze into the elbow. And stay six feet away from people and not have been gathering could big gatherings. Graph depicts what happens to hospitalizations if we just did that. And we reduce the number of people gathering. It pushed the peak to midmay, further way. And now rather than 3800 per day, we are seeing 1500 per day per hospitalizations in the new orleans area, the region one area. That is a large number to sustain. A week later, we had stricter role in place. We have added that on top of a situation where all of you hopefully are staying home and not going out unless you are an essential worker or have an essential visit. That does not mean every day but as needed going to get like groceries, gas, going to the pharmacy. And while you are out, taking these same commonsense measures. Staying bunching up in lines. Gatherings of less than 10. And for anyone who has symptoms, youre not leaving but are asking somebody to bring things to your house and you are staying in place. Further scenario we see pushing out the peak and decreasing the number of new hospitalizations. There we see the peak pushed out to early july and at the p point of admissions seeing 500 per day. Peak point of admissions. That is a large number but different than 3800. That is why we are pushing for this policy because it will allow us to push the date away thenown beds and allow search efforts the governor has put into place to be able to absorb the admission strain we are seeing. Going back to the start, the blackballed line says current midpoint, showing you where we currently project where we are. People haveuse covid19, they can be infectious for two weeks so we have to give a twoweek. To see these policies have an impact on numbers. We are tracking along as people have been doing the work that you saw with a heat map of staying at home and not going out and coming together. Between that scary scenario with a redline and the first scenario we would like to achieve, which is the blue line. We have indications we continue to see movement in that direction, especially in those areas that correlate with that map, areas that overlap with the map the governor show you. Orleans, jefferson, east baton showinghose areas are the impact of limiting contact with others. Our hope is that as we continue to do that and to spread that to the rest of the state so every buddy is taking that seriously, taking measures in their own neighborhoods. We will see that line get closer to the purple line. We will push away the peak and decrease the number of daily hospital admissions and get more likely we are actually able to have the surge measures that the governor has put into place actually be able to absorb those extra admissions. We are showing you hospitalizations but the governor said we are talking hospitalizations and deaths and we want to avert deaths. Thank you, governor. This timedwards at we will take your questions and i assume you may have questions on the modeling. [indiscernible] we aree are right now, not even close to the social distancing let alone where we want to be in the shelterinplace. It sounds like we are not even close yet. I do not want to speak for the governor but i think that is why you here every day he comes out to speak that this is still concerning. This is still something that we are here every day looking at numbers, talking about what measures can be taken. I agree with you that it is not good. But there is a glimmer of hope, in that we can act to change where that is. We can act to move this graph further over, away from us and down. That is incumbent upon us, and only we can do that. What does the midpoint projection mean . I mentioned at baseline we think one individual can in fact 2. 4 people in that current midpoint is saying that right now one person is infecting to other people. We have nudged but we need to go further. Gov. Bel edwards that doesnt sound like big news, two point five to two people, but when the growth is exponential, though small differences make a really big difference in the aggregate and over time. Because it is not just that an individual might infect three, those people could turn around and infect others. From 2. 42 get it down 2. 01. 7 down from 2. 4 to to 1. 7, the better off you are. Under our best Case Scenario it is a extremely tough scenario tough situation for our hospitals and we do expect that at some point we are going to exceed our capacity as it relates to beds and ventilators. Have noncovered people who have to be in the hospital. Heart attack victims, Motor Vehicle accident folks. All sorts of people have to be in the hospital. Noncovid19 patients. Some of those people require ventilators as well and intensive care beds. O this is really serious we are doing this every way we can to get the attention of people to get more compliant so we can get the lowest transmission rate possible. I am gratified that it appears over the last several points with the talking points we have been delivering here, have been reinforced by washington. There is no daylight between what we are saying two in the state of louisiana and what is being said coming out of washington, d. C. Yes or . Yes, sir . Going back to the strict shelterinplace line. That is not you limiting implementing stricter shelterinplace rules without his more strictly following them . Gov. Bel edwards that is if people follow the order already in place. More than they are doing now . Gov. Bel edwards yes and we can have better compliance. In places like new orleans where it is better than elsewhere in the state, we know that it is not 100 . Every buddy can do better. If we did adhere in a really positive way to the current orders around sheltering in place, keeping schools closed and that sort of thing, we will be down along the purple line. So where we are right now is between the worstCase Scenario and best Case Scenario. We as we get complaints start to move and keep moving and get closer to the best case and less people will die and it is that simple. We can lose ourselves in the numbers and graphs and so forth, but to the degree people comply with the orders, less people are going to die. It is literally that simple. Jeff . Is that for the strict shelterinplace through september or october, based on what that graph is showing . Gov. Bel edwards it would have to stay in place in order for that line to follow all the way. Now, look, do not know if we are ever going to get on that graph. So we do not know if we stay on the purple line or on the blue line or somewhere in between them and that is why we have to continue to monitor where we are and we will make announcements about what the future looks like based on where we believe that we are. The underlying assumption for at least one of the models shown by the president the other day how the mitigation measures staying in place for the month of may. I know that his current emphasis, and by the way, my order too, takes us through april 30. But in order to keep deaths in the country between 100,000 and 000,hut of 40,000, 240, that assumes the full mitigation measures stay in place for the full month of may to the country. For the projections did they take into account the way ford and wont hospitals the way forward, and wont hospitals be overwhelmed in early april . April 7 or april 12, as you mentioned yesterday . So this can be even worse, up to 2500 hospitalizations . Gov. Bel edwards im not sure i follow. This is a point i have been trying to make when we talk about things like ventilators. The governor has said it is not just ventilators that we need a few more and we are good, it is that every day the number continues to increase. And it increases at an exponential function. That is why it is so important we move off that curve. Still more and more people needing those resources. Theou are saying earlier local municipalities need to enforce curfew. The number of parishes including the area, they have started to appleman a curfew. Would you recommend [indiscernible] and you think it would help with those numbers . Gov. Bel edwards first of all, we crossed the decision threshold about expanding when we get there and we are not there yet. Where having see less social contract contact with a curfew, but that assumes people will not do during the day what they were going to do at night. If people are staying at home the way they are supposed to and only going out for essential work, if they are going to and from work or going out for essential things like going to the Grocery Store and doing it once week and so for, a curfew would not matter so much. Where the curfew, i think, could help, is in conserving resources at the local level with respect to Law Enforcement. So maybe you have an overwhelmed Law Enforcement agency with a number of people in isolation or because of exposure or because of actual cases. They may want to epaulet a curfew so that for certain time periods they may want a exam, so that from, for 2 00 a. M. To 5 00 a. M. , they would need fewer Law Enforcement officers on the street and could marshal a greater percentage of their available deputies to work during noncurfew periods. That is why in the first proclamation i issued we granted that authority to the chief Law Enforcement officers of the paris of the parish, the sheriffs. And you have mayors and parish president s who can issue those curfew orders as well. [indiscernible] retired Health Care Workers and that kind of thing. And rushed to new york, anything like that here . Gov. Bel edwards we have not considered a draft and i do not know how we would stand Something Like that up. We have requested through the state board of local examiners and the nursing board and to the hospitals, that retired doctors and nurses and other Health Care Professionals are able and still have current certifications especially, to come back to work. And to go back to work at the entities where they previously worked. And we are not just asking for people to come in from the louisiana, we are reaching out to other states where they may have medical professionals where their work is not needed yet because they are not at the same place that we i amch as i love new york, not interested in having our professionals drafted and sent to new york. We have real problems in louisiana with respect to our capacity to deliver health care, dependent on bed, ventilators, and staff. This is one of the hardest things about these standalone hospitals. Doctors andfind the nurses, very difficult to do. Terms of the modeling, if it shows it is flattening, does that change the projections for beds and ventilators . That is coming in the next week that we would be exceeding the number ventilators. We have hadced that some reason to push those dates back party. Prepared to i am say it is different. Maybe you can talk about that . We look at the data. We see at to make sure solid trend. That ind, we are saying areas making these moves. Recommendation to the governor. Hospitals are talking about two patients using one ventilator. We still on track to use those tools in the next week . Beenthink we have aggressively using anesthesia machines, bringing that to the front line. Course ofk over the what is going on, we would need those things. Beand our ability to successful in future allocations of ventilators out at the National Stockpile would depend on those things. Requestso justify our with information about the actions we have taken to make use of these machines and ventilators, identify them, round them up and we are doing that now. I have some good news. 100 ventilators did come in , on route to hospitals as we speak, not from stockpiles, but a vendor that we have been able to get ventilators from. About 300 we have sourced from this one vendor over the last three weeks. We will do that everywhere we can. Generate athat, we little more capacity, and then tomorrow, they will look not just at deaths and hospitalizations, they will look at the number of ventilators on hand. Inching back are in terms of the date we will exceed capacity, there comes a time in every model we are seeing where we do exceed our capacity to deliver health care. The degree to which we see that capacity will depend on our social distancing and whether we adhere to mitigation measures. We have it with in our collective power to decide whether more work. People will die from covid19. It is just that simple. I know people are not accustomed to it, but those are the facts of the matter. Yes, sir . , howat is our capacity many hospital beds in region one . I did not bring that information today. It changes every day. 4000 is something around icu beds, maybe 10,000 total beds. That information is on her ,ebsite, on a dashboard available beds and available vntents. Today in 19000 yesterday, 3900 . In two days. It accumulates. Nicuu have to back out the beds because they will not be suitable for the patients coming in with covid19 either. Not want to point out it is just we are searching now as it relates to ventilators and our medical monitoring hospital, which will be open tomorrow in new orleans, if you want to take a look at that, and i hope you will. Asked our hospitals to expand their capacity within our existing footprint, doing everything they can to stand up orleans,beds in new here in baton rouge, baton rouge general, shreveport, so we have been taking advantage of the time to expand icu beds as well. That is the best setting to get this health care, and the easiest place to staff those bed, but not easy. That standalone facility is difficult. Those will be less acute patients who dont need to be on a ventilator, but are not ready to go home, but if we can take them out of the tier one hospital sooner, that would free beds and you can service more individuals who need to be in a hospital to receive that topline care. Yes, sir . As far as your conversations with the white house, there has different focuses and priorities. Focus for you as far as federal assistance . The same thing i have been saying for several days, the Biggest Issue in the near term is ventilator capacity, so we keep making our case. There remain several thousand ventilators in the National Strategic stockpile. We are doing everything we can to put ourselves in position for an additional allocation of ventilators. You and thell people of louisiana that these conversations with the president and Vice President and with the head of fema and so forth, they are not unlike the conversations happening with the governors of every state. Yorkve new jersey and new and additional places coming online with hotspots, so were competing for limited resources, which highlights the primary difference between managing this Public HealthEmergency Response and recovery from a national disaster. You getional disaster, the attention of sister states who send things you need in the federal government is focused squarely on louisiana. That is not able to happen right now. We are doing the best we can. I appreciate all the work we have been able to do with our federal partners, and they have been frustrated. Am i mad . No. This is the way things are. We will be as aggressive as we can to get the resources we need and as soon as possible. Have you heard from the president about another covid hospital . No. Was talkingresident about the assistance he sent louisiana with respect to covid hospitals. That assistance is through fema. Bywill have 1000 beds ready sunday, and 1000 by april 20. 500 are coming from the medical. Tations he did approve for us we have a medical detachment coming from the navy, jacksonville, florida. We dont know precisely the number of people. We have 50 people now, but we think it will be closer to 200. They can work at personal housing units, about. 50 patients they require hospitalization. Those are the things we have gotten from the federal government as it relates to the Convention Center, very helpful, and that is with the president was referring to. I know your priority is butting covid19 deaths, people with the stayathome order extended, the potential for another one after that, what do you say to those people who are out of a job . How much do you think about that. Covid19 butcus is so many people are wondering where the next paycheck is coming from. Briefed every day on the number of unemployment claims. I make sure we waive the time. Ou have to wait i have waived the job search requirements that go with unemployment. We are working hard to expedite made. Nd getting payments we will add 600 a week to the 247. We are working with Small Businesses to make sure they take up the take advantage of the small loans to the sba. Loan guarantee program in louisiana, where the states will incur 20 of the risk of those moms to spur our banks to give Small Businesses. Oans of up to 100,000 there is no interest and no payments in the Interest Rate isthat is,. 5 , less 3. 5 percent, less than the sba. We are doing everything we can to stand this economy back up. Februaryeport of our unemployment numbers. They dropped 1. 3 in louisiana. We have the fourth Fastest Growing economy in the country had the fourth Fastest Growing economy in the country was his hit, so we were doing well. We want to get back there as not as we can, but you will restart the economy when you dont have the Hospital Capacity to render lifesaving care to thousands of louisiana its all over the state louisiana citizens all over the state. We are leaning forward in consulting with people in the private sector to figure out what we can do to best position us to move forward as quickly as possible, but these are difficult challenges, and the question was do i think about it. Yeah, i think about him, and we are working to do what we can now, and positioning ourselves to open the economy back up and get people back to work and get businesses open again as soon as we can, but the virus would determine when that is. That is just the fact of the matter. Look, i want to thank you. We dont have another press briefing schedule. I can assume we will do one for sure on monday. You are invited to the Convention Center tomorrow. There will be more information forthcoming about that. If we have a need to brief you tomorrow or sunday, we will, and we will put out that notice and give you time to get here. Those inwant to thank louisiana who are working hard to comply with the stayathome order and social distancing and all the mitigation measures. I want to encourage those who are not to do better, and i ask people to lift one another up in prayer. Together we will get through this. We are strong, resilient people, and that will serve us well over the coming weeks and months. We are going to get through this. I have no doubt about that, but it will get worse before it gets better. We have the power to determine how much worse it gets. That is what i need people to understand, and that is what i need the members of the press to help with the messaging. That remains the most Important Message for people to get all across louisiana. There is actually hope in that. We are not consigned to some future we have no control over. We can do something. The sooner, the better. As you saw from the model, thank you very much. Cspan has roundtheclock coverage of the federal response to the coronavirus pandemic, and it is all available on demand at cspan. Org. Watch white house briefings, updates from governors and state officials, track the spread throughout the u. S. In the world with interactive maps. Watch on demand any time unfiltered, at cspan. Org coronavirus. Afternoon,this President Trump pulled a briefing with reporters on the coronavirus response. He is expected to be joined by Vice President pence and members of the task force, live at 5 00 p. M. On cspan. , a specialtonight evening addition of washington journal on the federal response to the coronavirus crisis, 8 00 p. M. Eastern, with American Council on education president ted mitchell on the pandemics impact on colleges and universities, then randy weingarten, president of the American Federation of teachers, on how the nations primary and secondary teachers are changing the way they work during the pandemic. 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