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Would be the worst single month of job loss and the pace of the academic has shown signs of easing that it could be many more months before the labor market returns to a point where employers add jobs and will take years for the economy to fully replace the jobs lost in the month of april. This is marking a sharp civet from a few months ago when the economy was putting out hundreds of thousands of new jobs. The labor and Economic Policy for the wall street journal, he is joining us live on the phone. Thank you for being with us. Not only 20. 5 million jobs lost in april but overall, 33 million jobs. How does the economy begin to recover and at what pace . Eric i think it will be a slow process. At this point, we are talking about layoffs slowing. This wiped out a record of job gains in a single month. We wont see that type of shock again but we will see another month or so of layoffs before we even kind of start hitting the bottom. Host so Many Industries hit hard, but the hospitality, restaurants, cruise lines, they took a big hit this month. Eric absolutely. The Restaurant Industry lost about half of employees and one in 10 americans work in restaurants so it is a Staggering Amount of job loss. Really those hardest hit were any type of in person service. Hotels, retailers and of course restaurants. Host and what about the recovery of these restaurants . So many reported that we could see bankruptcies at a record level in the months ahead. Eric yeah. I mean i think overall, when state officials allow businesses to reopen, we will see a bounce back from this massive job loss of 20 million but we will not see 20 million jobs return. If we get half of that level back fairly quickly, that would be impressive, and that would still be like we were in a recession. You will see recession like things happening. We are already seeing National Retailers filing for bankruptcy and heard about local restaurants closing. That pain is likely to spread in certain parts of the country. Host there was a report that we could see as many as half of the u. S. Malls foreclosed, shut down because of the anchor stores that may be leaving, neiman marcus, macys and other Department Stores like that. Eric yeah, i think what we are seeing with the pandemic is a lot of types of businesses that kind of were already struggling including large mall retailers, including unfortunately local newspapers, those are it is almost accelerating their decline because it is pushing people to move to a more online point of view in addition to so obviously with so much job loss people are pinched in the , pocketbook. Host we spoke to Speaker Pelosi and she indicated there would be another round of Economic Relief for those out of work. The price tag . She hesitated but some estimate it could be 2 trillion or more. What should congress do to help those out of work . Eric one of the Big Questions is around the Unemployment Insurance benefits. Congress acted to boost those benefits by 600 a week. For some lowwage workers, that is making a big difference. In some cases, some make 15 or 16 an hour and are now earning more in Unemployment Benefits than they did at their job. This report today raises some Big Questions. There is some that would like to see those benefits faced out and encourage people to go back to work, the speaker among them. While others would like to see support for workers should they be unable to go back to work and find a job or maybe because schools are closed or health concerns. They dont want to go back to work. Host with this bounceback you refer to, what do you think will be the quickest to bounce back . Eric the quickest to bounce back, i mean i think you will , see the kind of Business Services come back. We saw job losses in places you normally dont like doctors offices, outside of hospitals, lawyers, accountants, consultants. Those types of Business Services i think will be quicker to recover because they can be done remotely i think in terms of like lawyers and consultants. And so they will be able to get back online as soon as there is a demand for them. I think people will be most willing to venture out and get first medical care like a toothache taken care of, go see your doctor for the physical and those will come online before people do pleasure trips or unnecessary runs to the restaurants. Things like that. Host we are talking to eric morath. Part of this is the psychological impact this is happening on americans and how likely or willing they are to go on a cruise or into a restaurant, take a trip and get on an airplane correct . Eric yeah. Absolutely. Some in the travel industry including United Airlines are already talking about the fall and the types of changes based they might need to make that far out. A lot will depend it is kind of always true, but a lot confidence, but that has been depends on consumer confidence, but that has been shaken to the core. Do you have the confidence to go to the mall or a sporting event . If americans are not spending money on those things, that will slow the pace of the recovery because we are a consumer driven economy. Host we also talked to the speaker about the Upcoming Elections and the conventions. Where do you think the country will be in late october as we prepare to go to the polls . Eric in terms of the economy and the labor market specifically i think there will , be an improvement. I dont think that the Unemployment Rate will go much higher although the Labor Department did have an interesting warning that while this is record high unemployment, it could have been five points higher depending on how people are categorized. I think there will be some decline in the Unemployment Rate but it would not surprise me that we are still in the double digits when americans are going to the polls, and that will weigh on the minds of many voters. Host eric morath are there , lessons from the depression in the 1930s or more recently, the Great Recession in 2008, 2009 in terms of rebuilding the economy . And recover some of these jobs . Eric i think one of the lessons taken from the 2007 to 2009 recession was that there needed to be more of a focus on main street and less of a focus on just the financial market. And that really harkens back to the depression era where there were massive work programs. The idea was to prop up the common person. And so you are seeing that. I mentioned the Unemployment Benefits. You see loans to small businesses, and the idea is to try to, and it has caught the attention, to help the mom and pop and not the Los Angeles Lakers or some of these other Big Companies that did get some of those loans and then returned them. That is a lesson to be learned to start from the bottom and move up as opposed to trickle down. Host what congress is likely to be looking on will likely add to the nations debt and deficit. At what point should that alarm the American People and congress . Eric well, you know, it is the type of situation where when we are in a crisis, when you are in a health crisis, you let the doctors do what they have to and figure out the side effects later. I think we are kind of at that point. Lawmakers on both sides are trying to do what they can to sort of stem the bleeding in terms of the economy. There is some legitimate concern out there. I mean eventually these bills will have to be paid. They may be paid by future generations. The good news is that we are in a low interest environment. And the good news is that there is still quite a bit of appetite for u. S. Government debt so there is probably some capacity to continue to borrow in order to finance the stimulus efforts. Host the reporting of eric morath from the wall street journal available online. , thank you for being with us on this friday evening. Eric sure, happy to join you. Host joining us from palo alto, california is michael boskin, an economics professor and senior professor at the hoover institution. He also served as the chair of the White House Economic Council during the george hw thank you hw administration. Thank you for being with us. Michael my pleasure. Host as you saw these numbers today, and rli

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