Library, and we have a great speech today for president s day weekend. A day in the life of a president. How many of you are members, raise your hand . Oh, wow, fantastic. For those of you who arent members, if you become a member today, you get a 25 discount on pauls book which you can buy in the store. He will be doing a book signing immediately after the program, so you can get a new book and have him sign it before we go today. We have a new exhibit thatll be opening in april want to tell you about, its called art of war. Its an exhibit that looks at the poster art of world war ii from our collection. We have about 3,000 posters in our collection, and were going to be doing an exhibit starting april 21st. And the artists, quite remarkable by some of our greatest, norman rockwell, andrew wyeth and others. Paul is both a working correspondent with west wing reports and reports from the white house on a daily basis, and hes also a tremendous historian. Hes delved into the history of both the white house and the life of the president s. And today hes going to to give us an overview of what its like being in the white house. But more importantly, hes going to offer some context on whats going on today and how we got here. So, please, a warm welcome welcr paul brandus. [applause] well, thank you very much. How many are members . I didnt look around. Wow. Yes, including the two of you. Well, thank you very much. Its such a great honor to be back here at the library. I was here, i guess, about two years ago. Very special place, and i appreciated the invitation, paul, and the nice introduction. Thanks also to cliff and the cspan crew more cominged today. So were going to coming today. Were going to go about 35, 40 minutes or so today, and im going to talk about a couple of president s. Theres not enough time to talk about everybody i dont think. Well talk about the white house has anybody here taken the white house tour, by the way . A couple of you . Oh, a lot of you, good. And because of the times we live in, ive been doing these talks for a couple of years. I always get a lot of questions about President Trump as well. Love him or hate him, there are obviously people in both camps, were going the talk about him as well and what i think history holds for him. Were going to look at President Trump. Doesnt matter so much what i think, im going to look at hum through the lens of history which i think is a much more valuable perspective. Of course, you cant talk about the president s without talking about the man we honor with this beautiful facility here, of course, Franklin Roosevelt. A wonderful president , obviously. He is ranked as the third greatest president ever, no surprise, only behind lincoln and washington. Everybodys seen in picture, of course, the classic shot of Franklin Roosevelt, the cigarette held at a jaunty angle. Fdr exuded optimism and confidence, and he did so at a time when americans needed it most. That, i think, is really one of the great qualities that makes a president great. And roosevelt had that. But what are some of the other on this president s day weekend, what are some of the other qualities that make a president great . Well, in 2017 cspan they do this every time a new president comes in they do a survey of historians around the country, ask them to rank all of the president s from number 144. Trump is number 45, but there have really only been 44 president s. Grover cleveland, of course, counts twice. Anyway, these are the categories that they used. Theres public persuasion, crisis leadership, economic management, international relations, relations with congress, moral authority, administrative skills, did they pursue equal justice, what was their vision, did they set an agenda for that vision and, finally maybe the most amorphous of all, a performance within the context of their times. Very different variables, of course of, but historians took l of these, pour them into a blender, i suppose, and hit puree and out comes their rankings of who these ten president s, top ten president s are. And here they are. No surprises here. Again, this is the cspan survey. Top ten, lincoln, washington, Franklin Roosevelt as i just mentioned theodore roosevelt. Obviously, greatness ran in the roosevelt family. Dwight eisenhower, harry truman, Thomas Jefferson, john f. Kennedy, ronald reagan, and rounding out the top ten greatest president s, Lyndon Johnson. Of course, theres the bottom of the scale too. Unfortunately, who were the ten worst president s . Again, this is according to cspans rankings. Martin van buren, chester arthur, herbert hoover, fillmore, William Henry harrison. You know, harrison was only president for about a month, so im not quite sure how bad he could have been, he wasnt there long enough to do anything. John tyler who, of course, succeeded harrison, warren harding, franklin pearce. Other johnson and james buchanan, certainly i do think deserves to be at the bottom. Im going to come back to that in just a second. So i think we can all pretty much agree that these ten folks belong where they are. Im also asked an awful lot what is the best preparation for being president . Well, theres really no one thing that qualifies you for being president. Obviously, many president s have taken very different routes to get to the white house. A lot of president s have been lawyers, a lot have been governors. If you look at the stats of who has done what, lawyers and governors are featured pretty heavily. My own sense is that being a governor is probably the best experience because it gives you executive experience at dealing with the legislature and so forth. Its really the closest thing there is to being a president. And particularly the big states like california or texas, Something Like that. A couple of president s have come directly from the senate. The two most recent examples, of course, being john f. Kennedy and barack obama. Very rare, though, to go directly from the senate to the white house. There are several senators who are today thinking about running for 2020. History suggests that they might actually have a tough time. A lot of president s have been generals. Mostly, though, in the first half of our countrys history. The last half of our countrys history, the last hundred years or so, weve only had one president who was a general and that, of course, was president eisenhower. Of course, some president s fight like there they are, 144. Some of these men fight like the dickens to get to the white house only to find out that, eh, not so happy being here. John quincy adams, miserable in the white house. He said, in fact, that the happiest days of his presidency was the first day and the last. [laughter] everything in between was miserable. Richard nixon, i think everyone here remembers president nixon. I never had the sense that he was particularly happy in the white house. Maybe he wasnt particularly happy in general, but he fought his whole life to get to the white house, never seemed particularly happy. On the other hand, there were president s who loved being president. Theodore roosevelt loved, loved, loved being president every minute, and it just showed he was exuberant every day. Bill clinton, i think, loved being president too. Not all the time. He had a rough patch or two as you know, but i think if he could have run for a third term, i think he probably would have done it. I think he enjoyed it. I think Franklin Roosevelt certainly enjoyed, talking about how much he enjoyed being president. Roosevelt, i think, at one point told a friend wouldnt you be president if you could . He once said, wouldnt anybody . Indeed. So i think he really enjoyed it. History, i think, is so fascinating just as a way of telling stories, and one thing that i do on twitter each day and now its a book, there he is again is to talk about what happened on this particular day in history. Well, on february the 17th, in fact, Thomas Jefferson was declared the winner of the 1800 election. We were just talking about that. If you think, by the way, we live in these nasty, hyperpartisan times now, well, you should go back and read about how bad things were in 1800. The Jefferson Adams election was about as nasty as it gets, about as hyperpartisan as it gets, about as divided as it gets. We dont necessarily live in unusual times today. People think we do, but there have been times in American History when we have been, i think, more divided than we are now. Civil war, certainly, is a good example of that. But 1800 as well. Also on this day, for example, barack obama in office for about three weeks signed his stimulus program, 787 billion stimulus program. But its beyond sort of the, you know, events like that that i looked for just in terms of telling stories about what happened. Also on this day in 1974 people think these aviation scares at the white house happened, started only on 9 11. Not true. On this day in 1974, kind of an interesting story, there was a guy in the army named Richard Preston who failed his robert preston, rather, who failed his Army Helicopter pilots test. He wanted to be a pilot, and he failed. So he said, well, im going to show these guys who failed me. So he steals a helicopter in the middle of the night, goes to the white house, lands on the south lawn of the white house in the middle of the night. He must have been a pretty good pilot to be able to do that, and then he gets up and flies around, lands again this time the secret service opened fire. You can see the chopper riddled with the bullets and everything. And aside from the fact that it wasnt too good for his army career, he was [laughter] thrown in jail for a year and fined about 2400. And i thought, thats it . Thats all you get for landing a helicopter on the white house . So those are kind of the stories that i think are interesting when you sort of look at, you know, some of the president s in the white house. But speaking of the white house, by the way, let me talk about that too. People think that for a young this is actually an older country than you think. And the white house really probably the most, certainly the most famous structure in this country, perhaps in the world. But what people dont know i find this fascinating that the white house was first inhabited in 1800. John adams moved in on november 1, 1800. Well, the white house has actually been a continuous residence for head of state longer than Buckingham Palace has been the official residence for british royalty. Its true, 1837 was when that happened. Tokyos imperial palace in the lower left, 1869. And i spent five years working in moscow, the kremlin, became the official seat of the soviet and now the russian government in 1918. Itd been in st. Petersburg and, well, in moscow prior to that. But its only been for a century now that the kremlin has been residence for head of states. So the white house really has a much more ancient history than people think. Every president , as you know, has lived there except for this one, george washington. Picked the site for the white house, 1600 pennsylvania avenue as you know. He picked the winning design for the white house, and this is actually what construction of the building looked like. This is a beautiful painting for the White House Historical association by an artist named peter waddell. Just terrific, and as you can see kind of the basic contours of the building taking shape, theres sort of the south lawn, what would later become the portico, and this is where marine one today lands. Heres the Potomac River looking over into virginia and everything like that, so just a wonderful painting. It took eight years to build, 232,000 which is about 75 million in todays terms. Not that the white house is on the market or anything, but the real estate and everything today has been appraised at about 400 million, so quite a good runup. So as i mentioned, john adams moved in on november the 1st, 1800. This is sort of what it looked like. The top picture here, obviously, a side view. And this ramp, which is how he came in, this goes out onto the south side, and his carriage would roll up, and he would go in. But what you dont see here is the famous north and south porticos. They did not exist then. They would be built about a quarter century later. That was Thomas Jeffersons idea that they were not original but he was an architect so to go inside for a second a modernday workplan. To see the mansion and stateside and then you can go downstairs but but with jeffersons day this is a floor plan of the jefferson era. So here is the state dining room but it is day this was a library used as his office today it is the state dining room that they now called the east room is called public audience chamber. Actually this is what jeffersons office looked like and of course jefferson was very much a renaissance man more than anybody has never been a president quite like jefferson. With his maps and his globe with the huge library. Even had a pet mockingbird he trained the bird to land on his shoulder and would feed it from his lips. So who is this person in the painting . Anybody know . Anybody . Meriwether lewis from lewis and clark. When jefferson was a widower. He came to the white house because he needed trustworthy assistant. He knew the lewis family and at the time he was in officer and said would you like to work with me in the white house . He found his life jerry and he jumped at the chance. And actually they were so close with actually lived in the white house which is today that east room and a couple of rooms on the south side they partitioned those rooms off with a cloth from a sailing ship. So one was a chamber the other was his office so here he is coming down the hall to plot and scheme and running the country and they went to Church Together and they took their meals together but their crowning achievement was the Louisiana Purchase and that is best how we know Meriwether Lewis but that is him right there talking with jefferson. So now lets jump ahead this is the first known picture that we have of the white house believed this was 1846 during the presidency of president paul who was such a workaholic he only took a couple of days off in his entire four years as this was taken probably inside working. He only took a handful of days off looking onto the south one there is no bout. The second floor we have that balcony today so heres a question for you what president built the truman balcony . [laughter] that is tough almost one century later he wanted a balcony he had to fight people to get it but that is what he got but actually that is how it looked there was no truman balcony. So now to jump ahead the man that needs no introduction. Doing these talks for a couple of years i get more questions on lincoln and jfk i have stories more about the two of them but this picture of lincoln you have seen no doubt very famous 1865 so he has about nine or ten weeks to live. But this has been colorized. Abraham lincoln in the flesh. Take a minute to look at the photo is remarkable picture. Hes only 56 years old. But look at him and 18 he was elected and five years later he aged tremendously from the stress of the civil war. Also losing one of his three sons who had died 1862 and he battled depression his entire life they call that melancholy that it was depression so you can see to me the sadness in his eyes that he always carried with him but really see lincoln in the way that they dont convey just an incredible picture manner ten weeks before he was assassinated but this is an incredible story about the link and that people dont know here is the modern floor plan the only way you can never see this room is if you get an invitation or 270 electoral votes. And with the modern for plan that is the lincoln bedroom. They think that is where he actually slept but not so. But in lincolns day that room was actually his office. This is another one of those paintings you can see the maps on the wall to track the progress and lincoln got a time of Death Threats and then he could look out the window onto the south lawn it is hard to see that but the half built Washington Monument it is actually two colors because during the war the federal government ran out of money and had to stop construction. Can you imagine that . So they had to stop and sometimes depending on how the war was going across the river to virginia their flags are flying during the daytime so the enemy is pretty close during the war so that is a remarkable painting. That lincoln did not sleep what we think is the lincoln bedroom today. Where did he sleep . This is what it looks like today. See the curtains . Pretty much the same kind. The drapes. This looked like 2007 laura bush was the last to give it a sprucing up but it didnt become the lincoln bedroom until the truman white house was gutted from the inside totally rebuilt during the truman era and is a tribute this is what they did so lincoln never slept in the lincoln bedroom. He never slept in that famous rosewood bed it is authentic that mary lincoln bought but they are not certain he actually slept in that bed. So where did he sleep . He slept in the president s bedroom this is the floor plan of the lincoln era today it says lincoln bedroom so at the end of a long day would go to the private passage was built for privacy and also security and walked to the library which was a living room and he and mrs. Lincoln had bedrooms right next to each other for the entire four year duration of the lincoln presidency they were pretty much confined to that small area so that is the president s bedroom looking out to the south lawn and today still the site of the president ial bedroom this is where President Trump sleeps today in the rio lincoln bedroom i tell that to some people some people say that is cool. It has always been there and that is were the president s today sleep. So here is mr. Lincoln again. So the one thing about this to be set up about lincoln is who knows what happened when lincoln went to ford theater 1865 John Wilkes Booth sneaks into the boxes and runs away lincoln dies the next day and that we know. But people generally dont know that is not the first time they crossed paths at fords theater. A year and a half before 186310 days before the gettysburg address, lincoln went to fords quite often and went to a show called the marble heart and the star of the show was John Wilkes Booth november 9, 1863. They were at fords the same time a year and a half for the assassination. During the play booth is in character and the character was angry and shaking his finger in anger at lincoln in the president ial box. The person who was with lincoln turned to lincoln and said he sure is to be angry at you doesnt he mr. President . He said he sure does. A year and a half before the assassination unbelievable story. Just an incredible story. After lincoln died his body was taken back to this room it was called the prince of wales room. What people dont know about that room but actually it has a morbid history willie in Henry Harrison died in that room 1841, lincolns second son died in that room 1862 and lincoln himself his autopsy and embalming were conducted in that room 1865. A creepy history for that one room and here is what it looks like today here is the modern for plan today and it is the dining. Sometimes i wonder if i go in early in the morning i will see it what up with the shadow behind the bulletproof glass it could be president bush or obama or trump getting a cup of coffee i wonder if we know what really happened in this room. Im pretty sure they do but it shows you the character of the white house that has changed over the years a lot of the rooms have changed their purpose over time. Now jumping ahead we have some questions with the Kennedy Lincoln more than anybody else but Jacqueline Kennedy turned that room into the dining room 1861 because she wanted more privacy for caroline and john junior so that is what she got. He might know Jacqueline Kennedy when she came into the white house, took on a huge refurbishing job in her words to restore authenticity of the building so she worked with art curators and historians to find all kinds of artwork and carpeting and everything that was scattered to the wind to bring a lot of that back to the white house and she was so proud she gave on february 14, 1962 americans a guided to her lung dash tour on cbs super bowl get about one third of american viewers she got close to half so that was a huge show more people watch that than even watch the super bowl to put into context just how big an event that was. What people dont know about that is after she refurbished the mansion itself, she wanted to refurbish the west wing. She went to president kennedy and said i would like to redecorate the oval office and he said fine. It had that truman era the green carpeting and the drapes there is caroline and maybe one of Bobby Kennedys kid do whatever you want and the workers told them that to refurbish the oval office they both had to be away for about two days to do the job so it turns out from scheduling standpoint the only two days was the third weekend of november 1963 the weekend they went to dallas. Someone friday november 22, a very dark day they wake up in fort worth they go to dallas into the motorcade and we know what happens. Literally right than on that day the day the president was shot the workers put in the new carpet that color was a deep blood red that was the color of the carpet. This is how they Kennedy Oval Office looked for every single day of his administration but the last one when they put in that carpet jacqueline 91 Jacqueline Kennedy picked that it wasnt a conspiracy. But she picked all of that and she came into the oval the next day as her husbands coffin was laying in the east room and she looked at the floor and had to leave. She stayed in the white house just two more weeks never returned until 1971 when president next and had her privately to look at the portraits of mr. And mrs. Kennedy unveiled. She never went back because it was too painful for her. It is fascinating to see what they did with the red carpet on that day one kennedy staffer moynahan who went on to become a great senator from the state looked into the oval that day and said oh my god it is if they knew a new person was coming. Now lincoln and kennedy didnt have that much in common 11860 another 1960 with both incredible speakers and gifted oratorios and gifted with their words but one thing i find interesting is there was an eerie fascination with death and being assassinated in ways that are interesting. Lincoln had an ear he dreamed days before ford theater it was a nightmare and in the nightmare he heard crying and wailing and he went downstairs in the dream and found the body in an open casket in the east room. Whose body lies in the white house . Somebody said it is the president he was assassinated. This was his dream just a couple days before he was killed. Jfk had a similar thought in his mind of course he had been around death his entire life. Certain members had perished earlier he and jackie lost two children during the time they were married kennedy himself given last rites a couple of times in the 50s thinking he would be living to be 45 he lived to be 46. Not too far off with his prediction but he often spoke of his death quite frequently and here he is in the open car he love to write around in the open car he liked to be seen he didnt want the secret service near him he wanted to be seen by the voters this was taken in tampa for days before dallas and as he flew home to washington that night kennedy said thank god nobody wanted to kill me today. Before days later somebody did and in fact the texas trip itself he did not want to go he had a terrible feeling and on the very morning of his assassination said this is a very dangerous and uncertain world talking about the context of the cold war but to say this before he was killed is interesting also after his final speech in fort worth he was joking how easy it would be last night to assassinated president it wouldve been a hell of an eight to assassinate a president. Can you imagine three hours before he was . So just a lot of eerie coincidences. One other thing by the way something people might not know here is Lyndon Johnson being sworn in on air force one but 14 hours after kennedy was declared dead johnson was nearly shot as well. It is an incredible story. Back in washington tents, depressed and nervous and angry nobody knew what was going on in secret service was on edge as they just lost their president lbj did not move into the president over two weeks he was in his home in northwest washington and a secret Service Agent operating on no sleep was patrolling johnsons backyard at 2 00 oclock in the morning he hears rustling in the bushes there is somebody out there he had the tommy gun and picks it up as the noise comes closer and aims the tommy gun at the noise and said he was a splitsecond from pulling the trigger out of the bushes walks Lyndon Johnson. He had gone out in the middle of the night to get some fresh air and did not tell anybody. Fourteen hours after kennedy was shot johnson was nearly shot by a secret Service Agent in his own yard is also in a book called the kennedy detail. An amazing story that very few people know of. Just incredible the day after then there are other civilian stories about the presidency and the mansion we could talk all day but i did want to talk briefly about our current President Donald Trump we have been talking a lot, did i hear something . [laughter] we have been talking about history but in terms of the future and what we can learn from the past and what it might suggest about President Trump. I will tell you something that i think is much more valuable and objective and what history tells us about trump and we will start by looking at the polls. So to be in this bipartisan world they have one or two poles they call them fake news is the term. The only fair way is to take all polls. And to be one aggregate number. And then to aggregate them together with 42. 1 of the nation approves of President Trump, 53. 3 do not. They are all average together which is fair and decent decent way to look at this. So for what they tell us one way to do that is to compare these numbers with the prior. And those at this stage. And after their 13 months in office with their average approval. With that median approval. So even so he is well behind the average and in some cases so what can we learn from this . Trump has said he will run for reelection and file the papers on Inauguration Day already raising tens of millions of dollars. So what can we learn . So history suggest and then to invite a challenger from within the party. From 1945 jimmy carter, 1980 the first storage bush 1992. After those first 13 months in office stronger than trump is now and then to seek reelection. So what happened to the four gentlemen . It Lyndon Johnson saw the writing on the wall and got out and Ford Carter Bush all won the nomination. And reagan lost to carter in the general election carter faced a challenge from kennedy. And his Approval Rating soared to 90 after the gulf war one year and two thirds later than was defeated in a threeman race with ross perot and clinton. So all four of these have higher numbers of considerable margin that is an ominous sign what they tell us about President Trump. So only the fifth president to lose the popular vote so what happened to the other four losers . Very interesting when they ran for reelection John Quincy Adams and Benjamin Harrison what happened to these for . And then to be crushed by Andrew Jackson losing to grover cleveland. 50. 7 of the vote 286 electoral votes. Some historians think 41 continued because we were into wars and americans were not willing to change courses. That is an interesting debate but the broader point the president s that lose the popular vote will have a tough time winning the second term. So trump this and trump that. That would spell well will spell trouble for the president. And those ominous signs. So to do that again and running with the incumbent to be running for the first time. So it is completely different and i think trump thinks it will be a cakewalk but history suggests otherwise. Those popular vote losers, how did history treat them over the longterm . And that cspan survey. Brother bird wong Rutherford Hayes george w. Bush is considered the 33rd greatest. And then with the mandate so history suggests and telling what history says. So that could be tough for him. And that is particularly helpful to the past. That has been constructive. And then thank you so much for having me. And thank you very much for having me. [applause] questions . Can you find a microphone . Do you have the analysis of the congress . One of the cspan variables in the survey and to talk about fdr with the democratic congress. And then barack obama makes 12th and people think that is controversial but he ranks number 12 even though the house was controlled by republicans six out of eight years so it is mixed question. And the Approval Rating was that as president or as general . He was elected twice. He beat adaline stevenson in the margin was even greater. It was pretty bad recession in the second half. But then to check that final approval with an 1850s except for that one recession seen as a. Economically and those what was bubbling up including those race relations. That is he was elected by a pretty wide margin. Mentioning abraham lincolns depression. Especially after the death of coolidges son . Clinically i dont know if he was ever formally diagnosed. But his favorite son developed a blister on his toe playing tennis and died fairly quickly early in the coolidge presidency. Plus those long daily naps it sounds like something you would do if he were depressed. And to be present in the 1920s with a couple of downturns with that last a fair type of president. Looking at the earlier rankings of president s which president raised the most from ten years ago or how they rank today . With those numbers it is indicative of where they wind up with harry truman because what you think 42 was low for trump. But to consider truman was 25 25 but yet today ranked as the sixth greatest president. So that is not necessarily indicative. And that totality of the record. Anything that truman did with the marshall plan. And with roosevelt and people responded to that. So that splaying fat. So with the top ten jfk was number eight or nine. Some people think that is controversial. That is an interesting debat debate. Sometimes wondering if kennedy had not been assassinated but he could have been higher up which itself was very contrived by Jacqueline Kennedy invented that after his death to build him a. Will up. [applause] give us a few minutes to relocate for the book signing. Offering a Clear Pathway from my past a chance to contribute to the greater world and restain retain my family so faced with different challenges like not speaking english until he was eight years old. And then changing the name to john gotti. Had White Chocolate organized crime in my family with the one Italian American elected official who personified the complete opposite and in the press Conference Room in trade tower number two telling reporters any notion of cuomo with bob long mob connections was full shit because they were in my family because they were unreachable. So with my Imaginary Press Conference as an eyewitness instead for not protecting cuomo from my family to resist the pull to work for him in the first place. And those mobsters who marred our lives to do good to permit lung Public Service i would pace around my office and finally i sat down to write out a script the governor and this is the script. Governor, i have some very implicit news and then to be spending three months in tax evasion in federal court so with his decision expresses the belief to have some association with organized crime. So we dont want you to learn of this secondhand. So i read over my speech but there is no escaping or rationalization i could not pretend everything would be as it was. The phone on my desk rang. Placing the script in front of me, hello governor. What is going on . I read my script word for word the governor was silent i finished and closed my eyes waiting for his response. I dont see how that should affect you. I certainly feel for you but i dont see how it affects you. You are a superb public official and i dont think it should have any effect on you. Stunned i think tim looked at the photo with a large color photograph of the World Trade Center a selfcontained world right escaped each day Public Service with her brilliant Italian American with the world of my own seals off for my family which nobody could take away from me. [inaudible conversations] good afternoon i hope you are enjoying the book festival. I am delighted to have you join in the 11th annual savannah book festival presented by georgia power