Purchased. All right. Tonights guest speaker is chunging min lee author of the her met king. In this comprehensive study of north korea, he puts kim jong un in her spect i by tracing the rise of the ming dynasty and how the current leaders motivations, goals and choices have been shaped. Drawing on more than three decades of experience in asia affairs, lee a senior fellow at the Carnegie Endowment and the International Institute of strategic studies shows how kims aggressive standoffs with world powers has put him at crossroads. The countrys increasing vulnerability to famine and crisis in the region. Now, please join me in giving dr. Lee a warm welcome. Ms. [applause] thank you very much. Its a real pleasure to be here, and i know that without my friends, i think, i would have had a very different audience. Its a real pleasure to be here at politics and prose. And i think the people who are most responsible for making me write this book, two of them are sitting in the audience. My very good friends bill and chip rogers. Now, the reason why i wrote this book and it came out on november 5th is i wanted to tell the north korean story to american audience. I think for most americans north korea is a major, i guess, you know, issue. The north Korean Leader is considered to be somewhat of a very different leader. Finish and President Trump, as you all know, has fallen in love with this guy. And you ask yourself how does donald trump manage to fall in love with kim jong un and then hoping that he will ultimately denuclearize. And i think studying this in the last 30 plus years and there were many people, many good ones who have written books on north korea, and i asked myself why should i write one more . Part of the reason is because as someone who was born in korea but having lived in ten countries and lived and studied in the u. S. For many years, i wanted to connect with a broader american audience. As i recall as i was sitting at bills house in the her of 2017 in the summer of 2017, that was when, as youll recall, there were missiles going back and forth, and trump was telling the world ive got a Bigger Nuclear button than kim jong un, and kim jong un said, you know, i will blow up the white house, and it just went on. So people were really scared, and i know that friends back in south korea, americans, were preparing for some type of an exit if there was a major crisis. And so it took me two years, since the summer of 2017, and, you know, as i said, the book was just published last week. So one of the key messages that i want to, i guess with, get from this book, and i guess there were a number of motivations for me. And the first is i wanted to describe not just kim jong un and the leadership, but to give American People a sense of what the regime was about. And you hear snippets on cnn or fox news, and you see this guy with the funny haircut, and hes got Nuclear Weapons. But its also a very important country. And yet most people, i guess, who are not really specialists dont know all that much about north korea. So i wanted to give a broader picture. And i think for me as a korean, and today being veterans day, as you all 38,000 americans died in the korean war. That broke out in 195053. And i remember an article in, saying imagine a 18, 19yearold guy from milwaukee, has never been out of the state, spends a couple weeks, several weeks training and is shipped off literally to this no mans land. And he lands in korea in the middle of the winter when its, like, really, really cold. And you ask yourself, what is this guy doing . He must have asked himself, you know, what the heck am i doing in this land where i am no recollection of even hearing about it . Is and yet nearly 40,000 americans died. And i think they died for a reason which was, in a nutshell, preserving liberty and democracy. And i guess light waite as those words may sound lightweight as those words may sound, i sincerely believe they did give their lives for a bigger cause. And one reason is among all the countries where American Forces actually spilled their blood after world war ii, i would argue that korea is the only one that has become a modern economy and a democracy and a thriving American Partner as the worlds 11th largest economy. So in a way, i guess im coming back full circle because my father, whos 93 years old, spent part of his years in the korean war, and then he brought back a number of korean officers to be trained here in the u. S. In the middle of the korean war. So i still have pictures of him as a young lieutenant and a leader at fort benning in georgia. And so my idea was, okay, how can i tell this story to both koreans back at home and in the north as well as to americans. So whats at take, why is korea so important, and why is north korea important . Well, first of all, because you dont want another bloody korean war. And thats something that i think the americans are trying very hard to prevent by having 28,000 American Forces in the rok. But north korea is not just with Nuclear Weapons, she has icbms, biochemical weapons, some relawned. Ed police relaunched ballistic missiles. It is the only country in the world, i would argue or, that has a comprehensive Department Store attitude towards military threats, everything from a to z, and thats what north korea has. So i wanted to show in the book that, yes, the roks worth preserving for these reasons. But second, i guess, goal that is at stake is regardless of how this whole thing comes out, i hope theyre looking at korea and this year in 2019, november, as you know, is the 30th anniversary of the downfall of the berlin wall. I remember working in 1990 at a think tank, and east germany was still around. Germany was not yet unified. And i ask myself, gosh, at what point will the two koreas be unified, if they do. And the big difference is german unification occurred when the soviets were on their knees. And if and when Korean Unification does come by, itll happen when the chinese are at the apex of their power. You have a very different geopolitical environment. Lastly, i think, the rok is in my humble opinion a very typical u. S. Ally. If you look at a map of asia, or eurasia for that matter, on the far end of asia with, on the asian continent, the only place where you have American Forces, boots on the ground, is in korea. And so you have 28,000 American Forces in south korea with an air force contingent and a very small naval footprint so that they serve not only to deter north korea, but over the longer term, i would argue, constraining the actions of the chinese. So going back to hermit king, i wanted to ask myself, okay, if i had to talk to someone who really doesnt know north korea, what are the three, four takeaways i would hike to, i guess, have on the audience . The first is to give the impression that kim jong un is not a baffoon. He comes around as a very different kind of character. He was born in 1983. And ever since he was born into the kim family, he was groomed to be either the next great leader or one of the key princes in the kim dynasty. And you have to really imagine how the psychology of this regime is. In 1948 when north korea was founded by his grandfather, kim ilsung, he was planted by the soviets. And then his song, kim jungil, became the great leader when kim ill sung died in 1994. And when kim jungil died in 2011, his son took over. But it wasnt really prepared that way because kim jungil had had three sons. Number one son came if his first wife. He had four wives. Finish he had a is second son whos the older brother of the north Korean Leader. Hes a guy that goes to eric clapton concerts all over the world. And then its kim jong name, and then he has a younger sister who you have seen in the news. So in korea bloodlines are really important. If youre born from another mother but have the same father, the mothers really compete for who will be the next great leader. And in this particular case, kim jong uns mother made sure although she also passed away that her son would be in the running. And in a way, life was made easier for her because the number one son who would also be assassinated by king jong up in kim jong un, he he came as a citizen. So he was caught at the airport carrying bundles of cash. So the japanese, you know, got this guy. And until then the number one son was considered to be the crown prince and the guy who would be the next king. Well, his chances were basically gone in tokyo. So as soon as he came back, kim jungil, as you can imagine, got totally livid, and from then on he lived in while knew china and in macao. So in a way, the leadership fell to kim jong uns lap. And so in 2008, his father had a massive stroke. And in north korea, of course, whenever something happens to the leader, nobody knows. And then intelligence picked up the fact that the guy was sick, but they werent sure how bad it was. That was when kim jungil decided my third sons going to be my successor. And at that time, he was in his mid 20s. So you can imagine even though you are groomed to be the successor, in north korea this is the most totalitarian state on earth, and you have 1. 2 million forces in the army, you also have the worlds most pervasive security apparatus, and still hes a kid. Regardless of the kim dynastys aura, how can you go to your generals and say you know general kim, im only 26, 7 years old but hey, you know what . Ive got all the goods, so please trust in me. Thats the problem that he had. But once he got into power over the last, you know, eight, nine years, kim jong un now feels very comfortable. But his catch 22 is very simple, in my humble opinion, and his dilemma is this he looks at the world, and he sees china, you know . The worlds second largest economy, his biggest patron is like the worlds most dynamic economy. Its arch enemy, south korea right across the border is a flourishing market economy and a vibrant democracy. His second arch enemy, japan, is the worlds Third Largest economy, and his real arch enemy is across the pacific. And all of his enemies are doing really well economically. So he wants to transform north korea, but how can you do that . Thats his dilemma x. The only way he can is to become the next china, by opening up north korea. The moment he opens it up, you bring in information, capital, money, technology, people begin to ask questions, and then his legitimacy begins to crumble. The moviey you have a body double who is a real life avatar. In north korea, since it this most highly monitored and surveilled city in the world, country any world, when youre three months old, for example, all children who are three months old are taken to state nurseries and then of course they come back later on, but even kindergarteners are told the marching songs. If you see north korean tv or propaganda, there if seven americans and if you kill five, how many are left . Thats the type of problems. If you give this type of loyalty to the regime, you arent you are thinking but one thing, you dont want to get caught talking bad about the leadership. In the book i describe the socalled Ten Commandments that every north korean must memorial rise by heart and the Ten Commandments saying anything you do must be because of the great, i guess, generosity of the great leader. So, when you see north korean prop beganda, one of the most disturbing ones i saw that it describe in the book was from national geographic, and there are hundreds of North Koreans in the big gymnasium and theyre sitting down and all have cataract operations but because in north korea the medical system hays tapered off its almost impossible to get good medical care. The front row you have a young lady in her 20s, and her doctor comes up, who is police with his assistant and attacked off the bandits from her head bandaid from her head and says open your eyes and this young woman sees for the very first time. In a normal family you would say, gosh, dad or mom, thank you, doctor whatever. And then the father basically holds his daughter and the next nanosecond the father says, oh, i praise the great leader for this gift. And theres a huge portrait of kim jong un with the two, the daughter and the father, going in front of the picture and they bow 90 degrees, with tears flowing down their cheeks and saying, oh, great leader, thank you so much, and everybody is like, clapping in unison. But of course, deep down inside she is a 23yearold girl with her own ambitions but can only say those things when she can connell confide either in her parents or siblings or closest friends. So in a way, although all North Koreans have avatars it this fact that i it is a different personality there are about 30,000 north korean defectors living in associating torque today from all walks of life. You think coming to freedom would be easier but its not because since youre used to a particular lifestyle for 2030 years until you defect, when they come to south korea they get training and then left in society. They simply cannot adjust to the tempo of modern life. Like getting a job. You have to apply for one. The party doesnt tell you, you will be a street cleaner, you will go to in north korea theyll tell you which school to go to and what youre going to major in and when you graduate, which job you get. So there isnt much of a personal individual, i guess, initiative in that sense. And so thats what i tried to show in the book. And one of the most i guess harrowing aspects of north korea and the book i give an example of the fact there are at least four gulags, and up to 200 know, york North Koreans are incarcerated in the jail. I look at the personality cult. When you think of a personality cult, you may think, hitler or stalin or maybe even lenin if you go back at more. But in north korea, be personality cult around the great leader, kim jong un and his family is knock like you if ever seen. You might have seen pick tours of kim jung un jung jung jung riding on a white horse. Ledge gem is that his mother was born in the mountain 1941, and then he was a cloudy day, suddenly when we was born, log cabin, like lincoln, the skies parted and this ray of sun just went right into this house, and he was born. In reality he was born in russia. And so everything about the great leader is all made up, so one of the Great Stories i saw what i think there are two golf courses in pyongyang, the capitol, and kim jongil, the late great leader got up and said i will play golf. So they went to the golf course, according to the official media, the first time he her got his hands on a golf club he had four holes in one. And he was so good that he told the clubmaster, lessons in how to play golf. So when kim jongun visits like this orphanage and in front of this orphanage is a big, i guess, banner with a big red star, and he red star where is the great leader stood, and theres an arrow that tells you where he went in the orphanage, and in one particular place theres a chair that is cased in a glass box because he sat in that chair. Im sure there are in people in this audience, gosh, if i could live like that, that would be a fun life but thats only for the very, very top. The vast majority of know, majority of North Koreans are doing much more poorly. One thing that wont happen in north korea that guess spied President Trumps prosubstance of kim jongun he will not give up Nuclear Weapons because they saw what happened to Saddam Hussein and gadhafi. They think if the had Nuclear Weapons they americans and nate to would never have attacked him. So with Nuclear Weapons you have security and youre able to then your enemies so why give. The up. In the en, though, like all states, for example in the killing fields in cambodia, where 1. 5, maybe more, cambodians were killed, many thought they they dirks in north korea you have a number of de facto markets. And the 1990s you ha a massive famine and up to 2 million north korea yaps died. So remarks still melted away. Know, North Koreans have to fend for themself and the millenials of north korea will change them from the bottom up. Why . All they theyve been indoctrinated they dont give a darn but the regime and the great leafedder and an ngo in south korea did a number of videos with defectors, including younger North Koreans and she said, when i first heard of kim jongun who will become our next leader, she thought that he was full of bleep. And that is the type of reaction you would not expect from your average north korean, right . You think how could you be so antiregime . And this is why i think over time, once more information seep in once more money flows in and the regime is unable to control every nuance of citizens things will have to change and thats my hope, but managing north korea is very crucial, because god forbid if there is another war, there would be millions of casualties in north and south korea and also involving perhaps the americans and the chinese. But maybe ill stop here. And take questions from the audience. There is a particular aspect you want me to elaborate, id be more than happy to. If you do not foresee there is an inclination toward a market economy or an evolution in that direction, what must be the forces that will sustain the status quo and in what way might an economy survive under those circumstances. Thats a great we. In north korea today, although its very difficult to get a clear sense, if you to chong ongoing, the capitol of north korea it is a modern city because it is the movedle city for north korea. And so what kim jongun wants is to make north korea rich without opening up north korea to foreign ideas. How many of you think do North Koreans think have cellphones . Actually, there are north korea, theres 25 million North Koreans and there are 7 to 9 million cellphone users. Honever they dont have wifi. They can only make domestic calls. Put north korean apps in the north korean app store, similar to apple, and they download the stuff and they exchange information, and to your point, they arent able to see the benefits of a modern technology. In these de facto market economies. They exchange almost 90 of the consumer goods comes from china, and you go there and you sell your rice cake and in exchange you about shampoo and then the next stall. The regime allowed this because the ration system does not exist. If you cant feed your people, they must fend for themselves but the irony is, as more of these marks flourish, the states ability to control them basically diminishes. So these markets are not just for exchange of goods and services. Thats where information gets exchanged. And south korean videos. Almost every single north korean has seen a south korean movie is chips a law. If youre caught watch thing drama or american show you are sent up for reforms. So kim jongun want its to have his cake and eat it, too, he cant make up his mind, become the next vietnam or china or pull back when the marks back to strong my final comment is people in north korea that means money, and money lenders or money leaders. So these identifies are the in the capitalism of north korea, who are allowed to exist by the government because they pay huge bribes to the government. So these people are the ones who actually start up new businesses. If you want to open other new hair shop, beauty shop, you dont go to the bank and say give me money. You go to this guy who says, how much do you need . A thousand dollars . In exchange ill get 20 of your equity or your profits for the next five, ten years, and again, this is something that one never saw in north korea 20 years ago. So this is an experiment in the making but i think that it will be the downfall of north korea. Fast. Fascinating talk. Heres a question. Look at china. Right . Which has liberalized economically but a oneparty state that has grown possibly even more repressive with new technology. Similarly vietnam where the Workers Party is in absolute control. The dissent in North Vietnam vietnam is relatively nonexistent but both states have very vibrant capitalistic economies. Couldnt they be models for kim jongun . Thats a great question because men South Koreans believe an engagement with the north, including the foreign government, think exactly like the question you posed. If the chinese have done it why not the North Koreansen and many north korean watcher inside seoul and japan and the u. S. Argue if you went to china in 1979 when we were in college, you would think, gosh, this must be the stone age. In china. No running water, all people were wearing drab mao suits. No modern hotels. People speaking in the same voice. And in my lifetime in our lifetime, see how chinese has transform. Of course the possibility exists that north korea could become a small china, but the ron i think it will not is because of the political reasons for the simple fact that xi jinping was able to trigger the that only happened after mao died and the gang of four were arrested. So you can blame the legacies of the poor mao era on mao and bury that with him but in north koreas case you cant blame your dad because he was a god. Your grandfather was a god, too. True gods are wrong, how can youll be a god . So that miss legitimacy flies in the face of the north korean colorado strains and the second reason North Vietnam is not the right model because in North Vietnam you had a South Vietnam who was capitalist before being taken overin 1975. So one half of North Vietnam that new the capitalist model. Heaven foreby if core south korea would still continue to exist. So, who knows what how things will pan out but a i dont think that kim jongun, as much as he wants to will be able to emulate the chinese or the North Vietnamese. Terrific talk, chung min. You mentioned the korean war, and obviously the soviets played an incredibly Important Role there before a as sent of china. Do the russians continue to play a role in north korea. No, chip. In part of my book i talk but the four powers with an interest in korea. Korea is important because for the general audience, more than people in this room, korea is one of the only countries in the world where the four major powers coincide jay graphically, china, russia, the u. S. And japan. Everything that happens on the Korean Peninsula by definition has a regional and global impact. Russia is a crucial country because she put kim ilsung into power in 48 put since the downfall of the uss in 1991, soviet influence or russian influence has went down. Why the chinese influence is so much higher. But russia is a very important player. You cannot ignore russia on the Korean Peninsula for two reasons. Number one, the russians still have a lot of influence politically in north korea, and number two they sit on the u. N. Security council. So of what happens politically the soviet order russians will have a veto or support whatever the americans may or may not do. So in that sense although we tend to ignore the importance of russian on the korean question issue argue russiaing is a very important player still. So you talk in your book about the 100,000 people a year are essentially slave labor in russia and poland. Would those people and i was astounded that billions of dollars is repatriated to north korea from the workers. 90 you said of their pay. Would those slave laborer ever come back to north korea and bring information from even russia . You would you see things. You have access the internet. Youre in poland and have access at the internet and you can bring the ideas back, even. I youre not bringing back videos and things like that. Youre bringing back the ideas of things you have seen and heard about. This is precisely why those overseas slave workers are not allowed to mix with local inhabitants. All the workers are placed in barracks far remove from the general population. So they get up in the morning, have a meager breakfast, work until 7 00, 8 00, 9 00 in the evening, and then no weekends no holiday, no nothing. So for the duration of their contract, two, three, four years, they never leave the camp. And there are those who attempt to escape, and once theyre caught, they are repatriated to north korea and then theyll face even harsher penalties. However, in poland, for example in the book i describe where polish Companies Hire north korean workers because they dont complain, work nearly 24 hours, and they do a really good job. But they see poland, even their painting houses, so to your point they see cars driving by, see people who are dressed in a very normal, nights way. See couples talking. And if you are a human being you must ask yourself, gosh, why is it that everyday life is so different here than in my country . And even that kernel of information he takes with him, through north korea, will be the seed of change, and if you multiply that by hundreds and thousands, you will see that people will come and in a hushed voice will say, in poland, they used to be communists but, 30 years after communism, theyre doing really well. And that is the question that the authorities dont want those guys to ask their brethren back home. Missiles missiles are really hard to make, the technology, the brain power, to even figure out how to do that and then how do they manufacture that stuff . Thats a question for me. In 1950, when the korean war began please go ahead. Ive heard for a long time they counter fit u. S. Currency counterfeit u. S. Currency and how do they deploy that. Yes, in 1951 the war began, the North Koreans received massive military aid from the soviets who gave. The combat aircraft and tanks and everything else. When the war began on un25th, the South Koreans were they retreated, until the famous socalled pusan perimeter, the southern largest port city, and only an macarthur intervenes, south korea is saved. What happens is the u. S. Had massive air power in the korean war and they really bombed north koreas industrial sites, military installations, so kim ilsung, when the war ended in 53, vowed to himself i will never let this happen again. I will never let the americans bomb me back to the stone age. And he vowed that i will have Nuclear Weapons and longrange missiles. So bit by bit, how dogs he do it . He reverse engineers russian or soviet missiles. Shortrange missiles. Then gets more good at it. His real partner in missiles the pakistanis. So the pakistanis gave the North KoreansMissile Technology and in return, the North Koreans give the pakistanis nuclear technology. So when pakistan tested in 1998, its Nuclear Weapons, there were North Koreans in pakistan watching that particular test. In 2006, when North Koreans did their First Nuclear test. This is theres a place in north korea called office 39, which is the personal piggy bank of kim jongun and the kim family. Every hard currency earning enterprise, the money goes into office 39 and the decided what to use with the money, including payoffs to his cronies. In north korea, although there arent that many embe as overseesy when you have an embassy in london or paris you only paid a meager salary and theyre told, go out and make money in the black market. What do these North Koreans diplomat does . They bring in forged super bank notes, hundred dread dollar bills, sell them on the black market for the fraction of the price. They sill liquor which they pie dutyfree and sell it. Liquor, cigarettes, superdollar notes and traffic in drugs and human smuggling because not only do they have to raise money for their own mission in city x, they have to give a portion of that to the great leader. Every north korean diplomat doesnt write cables. Theyre busy raising money on the black market and hence proliferation of black markets in places where they work. Its very sad. For example a friend of minimum told me the north korean ambassador, i believe to singapore, his monthly wage as 500. Can you imagine doing anything job as an ambassador with 500 . I think thats almost nearly impossible. But thats how North Koreans are trained. I think maybe one more question. Cant control myself. Heres another one for you. Are u. S. Policy for decades towards north korea has had one priority, denuclearization, and as you suggest, and as other expert north korea watchers have made clear, that is not going to happen because its too intimately tied with regime survival. Just for the point of view of the united states, what would you advocate in terms of if we have to worry about their Nuclear Weapons but they have enough artillery to obliterate seoul. How would you reorder some of our priorities or what would you put first . At first appoint you secretary of defense. Since i dont have the authority, what i would say is, i agree that you must engage North Koreans. Without negotiation or discussions how can you untie the knot, and all governments, including the Trump Administration, have used a mixture of carrots and sticks to pressure and entice north korea, but ultimately i think this wheres the South Koreans have to come in and tell the North Koreans, if you want to play ball with the americans, you must also play ball with us. In other words, south korea is a critical stakeholder in this whole speaker price, so i would argue the first thing is you have to really coordinate your policy with seoul in washington so you speak with the same voice. Apparently thats not always the case we see. But second thing is, you have to really filter into the people, and how do you do that . Its very difficult because of course north korea has a very harsh surveillance state but as i said, bible have gone to north korea, little usbs with foreign movies and information, and all sorts of goods and services are going into north korea today. Think if the usaid took a much more rigorous approach to Operational Missions in north korea, one way of infiltrating that particular space. The final point i believe is that the global community, including the eu, example for, t get treating. He north koreas great at divide and rule. Divide the south korean from the u. S. And this is where i think the Trump Administration must really revamp their Foreign Policy so the europeans, the South Koreans think just, the australians, and the americans, all sing from the same sheet of music. So, let me close by saying, as i said earlier, today is veterans day, and i dont think id be saying anything here if i werent for the fact that 38,000 americans gave their lives for the defense of my country, and as a younger, i guess, postwar generation korean, my dad who is 92 years old, but this is one thing where i think freedom is not just for South Koreans. Its also for all North Koreans and at some point in time i hope and i do believe all they will take many more decade, that all of North Koreans in south and north korea will live as free men and women. But thank you very much for making time and sitting through this talk. Thank you much. [applause] to thank you for coming out. The books available at the register and he is over at the table and happy to sign and answer any questions you might have. [inaudible question] [inaudible conversations] youre watching booktv on cspan2. For a complete television schedule, visit booktv. Org and follow along behind the scenes on social media, at booktv on twitter, instagram and facebook. Tonight on booktv in primetime. Historian Eric Washington recounts the loaf of james williams, chief porter of Grand Central terminal residents red caps in he early 1900s. Less stan tornado report on the creation of the maralago estate by Cereal Company post. And the economic debates in the 1960s, and joe rickets offers insights into becoming an entrepreneur and his found of td ameritrade, and fusion gpp cofounder discusses his investigation into President Trump and the creation of the steele dossier. Check your Program Guide for more information. Thank you so much for coming out tonight. Braving the rain so we can all be here celebrating University Presses and University Press week. Im kyle, one of the managers here and i think i speak for all of us at book culture when insay that University Presses are friends at columbia University Press, nu and fordham university