Ben, i want to start with you. We got a glimmer of hope as we see maybe social distancing is actual working, the growth of coronavirus cases is slowing. We also, of course, had unprecedented moved by the moves by the federal reserve. So tell us what you see in the market. Its got everything that it could have wanted this week. It got the good news, the illness appears to be slowing and then the fed coming in with this massive package where its going to buy highyield bonds and muni bonds to make sure that the markets are functioning correctly. You couldnt ask for anything more. And its just, its just spurred the market back to this height that its had. Its now up more than 20 from the bottom. Jon jon which is extraordinary, but you dont necessarily see this continuing. Were not going to see a v straight back to 30,000 on the dow. It just usually doesnt happen that way. Theres the too much that can go wrong. We can see the disease either pick up again or maybe even show up in the next six months or so. Its gone away then pop back up again and then, of course, theres the earnings front which is, its going to start next week, and we just dont expect earnings to be good, and thats kind of known. But the market likes certainty. Its going to want to hear news, and then were going to start seeing earnings pop back up again and start to recover. Chances of that are slim right now. Jackie in fact, carl, youve been looking at bank earnings. I have. Im also fascinated with bank earnings. To give you a sense of the underlying economy and, remember, just last week the banks started lending to small businesses. What were looking for is not just the earnings, but a sense of what businesses are they lending to, what industries. We really want the banks to give us more Economic Data because outside of the jobless claims, there has been a lag on Economic Data recently. Jack jack howe, whats your take on earnings starting next week . Earnings are going to look terrible, right . Not only that, if i were a company out there, i would throw everything in that i had lying around this year because you get a pass. I just want to say, you know, i agree with ben that it would be unusual for the dow to go right back to 30,000, but the whole world is unusual right now. When you think about the amount of stimulus that we have, remember the decade leading up to the pandemic. What we saw is that we had a lot of stimulus then. Its a lot easier to stimulate the stock market than it is to stimulate gdp. We saw a decade where we were disappointed we didnt get much above 2 , but we got rip roaring gains in the stock market. Im not saying the market should hit new highs right away, im saying i wouldnt be surprised if it does. Jack in order for the economy to come back, were going to need the consumer. You spoke to bob iger about his view from the magic mountain, what disney is looking at for the coming quarters. Yeah. If you think about, like, the disney world theme park, to me thats so, such an emblem of, like, the economy being shut down and us wondering what its going to look like when it opens back up again, what will attendance at the parks look like. Disneys not making forecasts, but i did speak with bob iger about what business might look like after the open. We have a clip of that. Lets listen. Just as we now do checks for everybody that goes into our parks, it could be we add a component that takes peoples temperatures. Now, jack, the idea of someone having their temperature taken on the way in to one of these parks night sound jarring, but lets just remember it used to be jarring to think we would have to take our shoes off before getting on an airplane or have purses and backpacks checked on the way into theme parks. So the world gets used to new things that it needs to make people feel safe, and it might be just before we have a vaccine this is whats needed to get these parks up and running again. So if i had to characterize how bob iger sounded, i would say he sounds optimistic as usual but also realistic about how long it might take to get back to normal, if we get back to normal. Jack i want to go to you on something that is of interest to especially conservative investors. Barrons takes a deep dive into utility stocks this week. Yeah. A lot of people like utilities for the safe, stable dividend. But with more people staying at home, you dont have as much commercial electric usage. These are businesses that have a lot of debt and expensively run. So we ran a screen on which companies have the safest looking dividends, American Electric power, Dominion Energy all yielding around 2. 34. 6 . Jack and i had an interesting talk with ryan hedrick with t. Rowe price, with Commodity Prices so lower and renewables being an ever larger share, sunlight and wind are free marginally, he thinks utilities can actually get the same revenue but make more money because their cost is going to go down. Its an interesting view and good if you happen to be an income investor. Coming up, can smart thermometers track and prevent the spread of co19 . Thats next covid19 . Thats nexexexexex today, mollys getting dressed for her first girls night out since the big move. She asked her stitch fix stylist for jeans that fit just right. And these feel like they were made just for her. At stitch fix we dont just see your size or your style. We see you. Let us find your perfect fit at stitchfix. Com. Jack as we all know, the cdc has been using molds to predict the spread of models to predict the spread of coronavirus. Smart thermometers can help predict the future of covid19 outbreaks, here to explain, the ceo. Thank you so much for joining us. Just real quick, explain how your thermometers work and what they can tell Health Authorities. So we turned the most common medical device into a communication system. It guides you on next steps, whether to go to the there or treat this at home. We now have more than a million households using these products across america, so were able to map fevers across the cup. On march 18th we launched Health Weather u. S. Which shows where fever levels are high or low above and beyond what you would normally expect for cold and flu season. Thats the first and best sign of covid19s spread in the community. Jack so as of today, wheres it growing, wheres it Getting Better . So were im excited the say that were seeing every location where theres been aggressive social distancing, stay at home, shelter in place, were seeing fevers get close to zero. Thats really an encouraging sign. That doesnt mean that cocovid cases wont increase, but it does mean the number of newly infected people is dropping dramatically. The one location where were not seeing it go towards zero is new york city. And thats a concern. New york is a high density city, and its probably very hard to do aggressive social distancing for extended periods there, so i am concerned about new york, and i think everyone right now is pretty concerned about new york. Jack theres been a lot of talk about measuring temperatures at points of entry, but youre focused on the family. Why is that in. Yeah. So we want to be able to talk to people while theyre still in their home before they ever go to a port, before they go to a baseball stadium. And we found that provides the earliest of Early Warning signals. If you see something spreading in the home, thats a good indicator it may start spreading in the local community, and thats why we work with people in their house. And the reason, of course, is we can help people get better. Its not just an Early Warning system, its also an early response system. Jack should people be worried about privacy issues . Theyre being tracked somehow . Im glad you asked that. The answer is no. We do not share personal data at all. What we share is Population Health information, the percentage of people in a county that are sick. Theres just no way to identify an individual from an illness signal like that. Jon but interestingly, a parent can look at your app and tell if, you know, their fifth Grade Student maybe is just part of a broader problem in the school and whether its a big problem or not a problem at all. Can you explain that . Yeah. So in about 1500 schools across the country, mostly title i schools, we have given away thermometers for free. Theyre entirely free for the community, and you as a parent and a nurse and teachers can now see whether the illness levels high or low in the school and where its spreading. And, you know, nurses can message out to the community, they can message out to an individual grade and the parents in that grade saying, hey, heres whats going around, and here are the actions you should take. One of the reasons why weve done this program is schools are one of the places that illness spreads rapidly. School children bring it to their parents, they take it to work or spread it to the grand parents. And the first question you always ask whats going around, right . Everything starts the same way. And the question is, is it flu, is it strep throat, is it something else, is it covid19. So that program really helps us to understand whats going on, and it also helps us to help the community respond. Im really excited and encouraged by the program. Its shown that we can curb flu spread over the last several years, and we believe its going to be even more important with covid19. Jack can you tell us two states that i believe you are announcing partnerships with, but then more importantly, how should Health Authorities be using this sort of technology in the future to nail covid19 and then prevent futurer pandemics . Yeah, so im excited that were starting to work with states, i cant announce who they are, i dont have permission. Were starting to work with state and local governments to deploy more smart thermometers into the community. Think of this as an Early Warning system. Its a system that says finish its like a lightbulb going off on a map saying somethings going on here, send the test kits in, the virologists in, and its really, really important to have an Early Warning system so you can direct resources to where they need to go, and thats what weve built. Jack you would like to see federal or state authorities ask Health Providers to ago redate this information, send it to you or someone else so theres a national database, is that right . Yeah. I see this as just fundamental infrastructure for our country of were using 21st Century Technology to understand where and when disease is starting and spreading. How do you stop an epidemic if you dont know where its starting and spreading . You cant. So this is the kind of technology that needs to be out there as that Early Warning beacon, right . Saying, again, send the test kits in, the virologists in, and you can also monitor how effect you have your interventions are. If you see fever levels dropping to zero, thats a good sign that youre breaking the chain of infection. Jack thank you so much. Keep us informed as to how this is all going. Coming up, can the Market Reaction to the 20082009 financial crisis predict how the market will move during the fight against coronavirus . Research cofounder nicholas coop weighs in, thats next. Im your mother in law. And i like to question your every move. Like this left turn. Its the next one. You always drive this slow . How did you make someone i love . That must be why youre always so late. I do not speed. And thats saving me cash with drivewise. My son, he did say that you were the safe option. And thats the nicest thing you ever said to me. So get allstate. Stop bossing. Where good drivers save 40 for avoiding mayhem, like me. This is my sons favorite color, you should try it. [mayhem] you always drive like an old lady . [tina] youre an old lady. I am totally blind. And non24 can make me show up too early. Or too late. Or make me feel like im not really there. Talk to your doctor, and call 8442342424. Yeah. This moving thing never gets any easier. Well, xfinity makes moving super easy. I can transfer my internet and tv service in about a minute. Wow, that is easy. Almost as easy as having those guys help you move. We are those guys. Thats you . The truck adds 10 pounds. In the arms. Okay. Transfer your Service Online in a few easy steps. Now thats simple, easy, awesome. Transfer your service in minutes, making moving with xfinity a breeze. Visit xfinity. Com moving today. Jack what can the 20082009 bear market tell us about how stocks will perform in the coming weeks . Day the that track research cofounder Nicholas Colas joins the round table. Your daily newsletter is a mustread for me, and i appreciate that. One thing ive learned recently is that the current bear market has been tracking very closely to the 20082009 bear market. So first of all, given that the causes are so different, why would that be . And maybe more importantly, what does it tell us about whats coming up next week . So youre right, they have been tracking very close toly, and the stark points are the end of september in 08 versus march of 2020. The reason they track so similarly is because markets basically, when they see a crisis come along, are looking for a policy response from washington. The faster that policy response comes both in terms of fiscal and monetary policy, the more quickly they can heal and bin to see through to the other side. So crises are always going to be call and response between markets and washington responses. And so thats why they track so similarly. As far as what it says for the future, the 08 experience tells us that we still have some volatility the come. The equivalent week to week coming up was the week of the election in 2008. Is thankfully, we dont have that kind of political instability. But we do have a lot of earnings uncertainty, so were using the 08 playbook as way to explain to our clients theres still more volatility to come even with the rally weve had. Jack youre kind of reading the jay powell tea lees, what do you think is going on in his head, and is he specifically trying to target the stock market with his actions . He is not, but its going to have a powerful effect on stocks as we saw. What hes trying to do basically give the country a bridge loan through the next 90, 180 even longer in terms of days the make sure that no company fail because they dont have access to liquidity because of what will hopefully be a temporary shutdown of the economy. That is having a powerful effect on stocks because if you lop off the bankruptcy end of the return curve, obviously stocks will rally. And thats what we saw on friday, a relief that were not going to have an unruly set of bankruptcies coming out in the next six months because the fed is that backstop. Jack gotcha. Ben, you had a question. I did, yes with. Earnings are coming out, and that seems like its going to be a big test for the market. Do you think the market can pass that test . Yeah, its a great point. Look, we were running about 160 a share in earnings on the s p last year, and if we do the 0809 overlay, we can expect earnings to be down roughly 50 in the first half of this year, and that makes a lot of sense. Weve seen a huge contraction. That taxes us to like a 70 a quarter run rate for earnings which is pretty good all things considered, but markets will be looking for color from companies, from sectors not only about their current cash burn rates, but anything they can tell the us about how things might shape up in the back half of the year based on whatever scenario they think is most likely. Itll be very important to listen to Companies Give color on that next week and the week after. And i was just curious, your add vice historically has been to buy when the market falls by 5 . Is that still your playback . It is. That was the advice we gave clients at the very beginning of this process. Every down 5 day is a truly unusual day in u. S. Stocks. Versus the normal 1 rates that is we know and historically says is the right average range. So you hit the 5 , you know things are very unusual, theres a lot of panic in the area, and those are the days you want to buy. If we see more 5 days, we are still recommending clients buy those closes because the 0809 history says clearly thats the best way to get into a good position for the recovery. Hey, nick, the fed seems to be willing to buy anything thats not tied down including highyield bonds, and youve written that thats bullish for small caps. Why is that . You know, small caps, lets say the russell 2000, for example, small caps typically are companies that more likely are not profitable than, say, s p 500 companies. About a third of the russells arent profitable. They need access to and, you know, decentlypriced capital usually in the high yield or bank loan markets to keep their longterm growth plans alive. So highyield spreads are a real tell about the access to is and cost of lower, noninvestment grade quality debt. When those spreads contract, and clearly the fed is trying to make them contract because of what theyre doing, it tends to be the case that smaller cap stocks outperform. From the march 23rd lows, the russell 2000s only on par with the s p, so if high yield spreads come down further, small caps should outperform the s p. And history says 8ing 0 president of the time 80 of the time thats exactly what happens. Jack thanks, nick. This past week we did see the russell edge the s p 500, so i think you might be right on the money there. Up next, round table members give their investment ideas for the coming week. Stay right there. I juststststst jack jack, you and i spoke earlier about disney, but youve been looking at the whole entertainment, travel spectrum. What are you hearing . One analyst likes comcast. Broadband is the biggest part of the business and, obviously, everyones using plenty of that. He also likes netflix. Keep in mind production is shut down. Netflix makes every show or at least it seems like that, so it will be forced the save money during this town turn. Another analyst covers the cruise lines, he actually likes royal and norwegian stock right now. He says the risk has never been greater, but he views it as a binary outcome. If these companies can survive, their stocks might double or triple. Its a big if. If you want to hear that whole conversation with bob iger, check out the barrons street wise podcast. Jack interesting point on the cruise lines. I dont know if id want to take a cruise, but if they dont go out of business, maybe its a good price. Yeah. Not for me on the cruises or the buy. [laughter] jack carlton, i want to start with you for our actionable ideas, and youve been channeling your inner peter lynch for this one. [laughter] yeah. Im taking a look at dollar tree e this week. A lot of people are hoping for a vshaped recovery, but even if we with get that, its not going to affect all people equally. Just Walking Around my neighborhood, im seeing lines to get into the dollar tree. We saw it during the financial crisis of 2008 where the Dollar Stores expect discount retailers performed better. Is so going forward, i think dollar tree, they had an activist involved last year, they made some changes, and i think it could be a good play going forward. Jack ben, i dont know if you have any experience with ulta, but you like the stock. [laughter] the stores are shut down, thats hurt, but its going the move to online, its not something you can buy on amazon. Its looking interesting here. Jack thanks very much, ben, carlton also liked your idea and, jack, always entertaining. To read more, check out this weeks edition at barrons. Com. Dont forget to follow us on twitter. Stay safe, wear your masks. Thats all for us. See you next week on the barrons round table. From the fox studios in new york city, this is maria bartiromos wall street. And welcome to the program that analyzes the week that was and helps position you for the week ahead. Maria is off this weekend, im david asman. Coming up in just a few moments, marias oneonone with shake shack ceo to talk about how the restaurant chain survived the economic slowdown. Then her interview with treasury is secretary Steve Mnuchin about the rollout of the first round of stimulus and blackstone ceo Steven Schwartzman on what blackstone is doing to help new yorks first responds. But first responders
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