A problem. Ruble, different solutions, especially since the president gave relevant instructions to both the government and the central bank on this matter, if we can combine these issues, the reasons, where are the advantages, where are the problems, and most importantly, how will we solve the problem, and if possible, i still mean right away that we understand everything, that in the end, this is largely translated into the prices of goods, products that all people consume. How much will a bottle of milk and a loaf of bread cost in a store . We went through last year much better, this year we are developing better than many forecasts, but inflation has begun to rise, and people notice this in their own pockets, so we are making a decision in order not to allow a large rise in prices, and when they say inflation, it is clear what is behind it, there is an increase in prices for specific goods and services, yes, the Exchange Rate also affects this, but there is a very, complex relationship here, because the Exchange Rate is influenced by external factors, internal factors, external factors this is primarily what Foreign Trade has changed. You remember, last year, due to high oil prices, we had very large exports, and imports fell, and this was one of the main reasons for the strengthening of the Exchange Rate, this year its the other way around, our exports are falling, imports have recovered, thanks, among other things, to the work of our companies; we did not quickly find niches, but this external factor leads to the fact that the Exchange Rate may change, a onetime restructuring, but we. Have internal conditions, because at the same time , that our exports have fallen and less foreign currency is coming into the country, we now have, so to speak , more rubles competing to buy imports, because domestic demand, which is fueled, was fueled by both the soft budget and soft monetary credit policy, it just influences the weakening Exchange Rate, that is, not only the weakening of the Exchange Rate affects inflation, but the weakening. Of the Exchange Rate is a reflection of inflation and the fact that our demand is growing more than supply may grow, in the supply of goods we are encountering restrictions associated with work force, so we need a balance between the growth of demand and the growth of applications, so that this does not result in inflation, a constant increase in inflation and does not result in a weakening of the Exchange Rate, we increased the key rate, but this does not give such an immediate effect on the rate, as it was when we had a fully open capital account , as they say, and the movement of capital was in both directions, but i assure you, if our rate now remained there at 7. 5 or 8. 5, the rate would be much weaker, and there are proposals to make. More stable, including introducing additional currency restrictions, we are having discussions, it seems to me, our experience, our personal experience, the experience of others countries, shows that administrative measures very quickly cost and do not give a significant effect, economic incentives are needed, the attractiveness of ruble savings is needed, this is how it worked, it always works when business, people prefer to keep their savings in rubles rather than convert them into foreign currency, no matter abroad or within the country, and this happens when there is no fear that their funds will depreciate, this happens when. But can i just clarify one detail . As far as i understand, on august 9, the bank of russia announced the suspension of foreign currency purchases as part of the ministry of finances operation under the budget rule until the end of the year, probably, the decision was aimed precisely at the goals that you said, but then the question was, it was aimed at mitigating shortterm fluctuations in the Exchange Rate, because at that moment the ministry of finance was simply extinguishing. A large volume of eurobonds in dollars, so people having received these funds could show more demand for currency , we simply shifted these operations, we dont ask them about this, it turns out that we have shifted a fairly large amount, such a canopy has formed, and when its all. After all will enter the market, we wont succeed, there will be a collapse there, well, i dont know that its not dangerous, thats what were just moving it, well, when were moving it, this isnt the first time weve moved it, weve moved it. So in the twentieth year, this is what is called mirroring of Foreign Exchange transactions, yes, the ministry of finance, we do not do this at once, we sometimes stretch it out for several years so that the impact of these deferred purchases is minimal, and we enter the market when the situation allows, antonovich, add something, well, about the course, who cares about the strong course who needs it, who is weak, but it seems to me that everyone is in favor of a stable and predictable Exchange Rate, we also want this, we are doing this together with the central one, well, of course, andrey lilnovich, its possible, or maybe i ll come in a little from the other end, it seems to me that the fact that our economy has withstood such a powerful blow, it somehow disorients us a little, in this regard, look, we talk all the time as if we were living in a calm time, i even remember 98 the year of the crisis, which in general killed, means russian banking sector, led the country to default and the Exchange Rate then, by the way, was six, and then it became 30 quite quickly, yes, for no apparent reason, there was some kind of asian crisis, because we had a weak banking sector, weak finances, but here we have , look, a number of very serious factors are generally outside the market, outside the economic, maybe even from the point of view of the countrys plans, first, you yourself in the film wrote about the breakdown of the world, as it were , financial structure and economic, the breakdown for a reason, yes, that is, failure all traditional economic ties, what has changed is that either we, which means imports have fallen , then we have exports, which means this is the first factor, the second factor, colleagues, we have gigantic sanctions, the Financial Sector is under sanctions, the industrial sector is under sanctions, the most severe if there are restrictions, the third is for a special military operation, which absorbs significant money, and we live like this, as if we think that, well, we can do something there with the same measures, calmly as before, it wont work. It seems to me like im a prisoner of the caucasus, or i im taking me to the legislative office, either she takes me to the prosecutor, or we, there are good measures, maxim gennavich has two courses there, something else, this is one solution, an administrative one, but the second, traditional one, will not work fully , because the factors of a nonmarket nature and a nature that do not come from our economy are so great and they will still spoil us and hinder us, so i think maybe we should change the goals of the goal, but inflation is probably still more important even than the Exchange Rate, because i remember the course six was, 30, there are 120 and the economy adapts in any way, inflation is important, in terms of inflation, i cant comrades here know better why we have an inflation target of 4 , my analysts tell me, because in the eurozone there are two, it seems, but we have four, here is my last good news, this is september , which means the macroeconomic forecast of the European Central bank, where they have a forecast of 24. Lets take as a basis not 4 , but 6. 4 , it will be easier for us all to breathe, why cant this be done, youre reading the wrong papers, dont read these papers anymore , why lets take another number and we wont die and we wont die and let the rate be 100, at the same time you only hear each other, or the last phrase, then . It seems that our key rate will not be lower than 20 , because at twenty it will start to really work, lower, thats how it is now, the rate is again 97, sorry, thank you, but i cant help but react to attempts to change the inflation target, thats worse just change the inflation target, then the guidelines disappear, not the Exchange Rate at all, not even inflation, why is more than 4 bad . Well, because when you have 4 , he asks. About milk and a loaf of bread, which is very important , the higher the inflation, the greater the spread of prices, the more prices can rise, specifically for milk, for bread, the lower it is, the more stable they are. And the lower the inflation, the more affordable the loan rates will be, you know, i think, i think that we will not try to refute the words here that inflation is a tax on the poor, absolutely, just like that, well, lets well help the poor, lets help you, no, as i understand it, were still having a discussion about how the vdb will help the federal budget ahead, we will now talk about the herds for which you will, you will give money from the state, a little later, lets finish it. This question, maxim genivich, well, what do you say, because im still looking at the president s order, the order of the government and the bank of russia, to make agreed decisions on stopping, mind you, not on regulation, but on stopping the weakening of the ruble, well excuse me, thats why the debate that exists here, its like a good debate, but very interesting, so what are we going to do . Well, look, if we have, when the weakening process began, there was july, the end of july , the beginning of august, we really had, well, a rather weak balance of payments and a trade balance, a balance of services, but now our situation has changed quite a lot, our exports have still increased, we see this based on weekly data there and so on, but i will give two figures that seem to me to seriously show the situation, our share of rubles for exports that are now coming in, according to the central bank, amounted to 41 , back in january it was 34 . I think for August September this figure will increase further. On the one hand, this is good, we always said, lets make ruble payments, here they are, ruble payments, we have a 30 share of rubles in imports, this is the first, second point, even the currency that returns here, as of last week, 30 are large the companies bought this currency back, that is, you see, 60 of it is returned in foreign currency. Of this 60 , another 30 is converted back, so what remains, in fact, goes to pay for imports, for withdrawal operations, respectively, and so on and so forth, in this regard, and in our country, we all have to figure out what tools we have, what we have on the table, well, of course, there is an Interest Rate on the table, and the key rate, or perhaps it is precisely what is used, in order to reduce the overall demand of the economy, and of course, this influences, let them postpone it. But it influences whether it is enough only, yes, we have currency regulation, repatriation of Foreign Exchange earnings, mandatory sales, and so on and so forth, but in principle, with these parameters, well the thing seems to me to be, well , not working very well, because from the fact that colleagues must return, they actually return 85 , now the largest companies, we are monitoring 42 holdings together with the central bank, there they return 8485 , well , let me emphasize again, they return in rubles, what are we saying, even if they dont return in rubles , let them return everything. In foreign currency, then why did we convert Foreign Trade into rubles . Therefore, it seems to me that we need to develop some more complex solutions here, i never spoke about two courses , i think a plurality of courses is destructive of a free economy and a normal economy in general means means, but nevertheless , some restrictions that most countries of the world accept, in principle, it seems to me, we can calculate and can, well, at least discuss. This definitely should be discussed, for this we need, in principle, to answer several questions , first of all, this is the structure of current lending, who are we lending, are we raising the Interest Rate, what kind of lending do we want to reduce, which is simply demand in the economy, which is conditional, serves Foreign Trade, we have a lot of rubles now it serves Foreign Trade; in those credit growth figures, which sometimes make us happy, some may be frightened by how large a share it is. A growing share, something that serves international trade, by and large, what is 40, 41 of our returns in rubles, this means we have a Foreign Exchange market abroad, in principle, it will soon be comparable to ours, and there is some kind of another regulator, this will be regulated somehow, we also need to deal with this somehow, so it seems to me that there is still control or at least monitoring of transfers, yes lets answer a simple question how many rubles do we have abroad, how much balance do we have . On correspondent accounts, as if there were rubles abroad, and how this figure changes, this is the analysis that we are now doing together with ezadna, we look, yes, it is clear that rubles can also be imitated abroad, and so on, but they keep money there, but now they keep it abroad not because of a good life, because in principle the very fact of transferring here, then paying for something, is additional transaction costs, additional problems from the point of view payment, we will return to the financial broadcast in a few. Minutes, now a shot from the president ial press service, good afternoon, we agreed, you see today we will talk about the situation in the republic, in the economy, in the social sphere, uh, in general, the dynamics positive, very, this is happening to a large extent, thanks to you, your team , people work confidently, and i interact well with the government of the Russian Federation, we have a number of serious programs, but tasks that you yourself talk about all the time, but i know , what do you we have prepared a list, i would just like before we start about the republic, this is what we have been doing from the beginning to this day in the territory and we are thinking of boasting, your squad there is showing good results every day they take fren, every day they destroy equipment, none, as they call it, not a scary house , as if i think that we advertised for them, and today there are fighters, the spirit is good, i sometimes look in, but how things are, absolutely. All all at home their issues are resolved, no problems, they have no connection, equipment, we are from start to finish today we bought 1,100odd cars, 100odd of them are Armored Vehicles , well, not even from the republic, we also help others, this is our common cause, so we must win together, all the people support you, and we are the only region, i can say that we created five regiments and three battalions, during this time the republics, they are all engaged in their activities today, best wishes to the guys, convey their best wishes to the families, i know that you personally are engaged in these all the time questions, including the support of the families of our guys who are fighting on the front line, fighting confidently, well, courageously and heroically , very good, i am very pleased that very good contacts have developed with other units, i know the relationship of commanders, including higherlevel , as i already said, i asked one of them how the guys from chechnya are fighting there, the answer was straight, at that very second, they wont let you down, i have complete confidence in them, you know, this is still a lot, this is. An assessment of commanders who actually take part in combat actions, so our best wishes to everyone and their family members, if your order is not carried out, then we cannot live in this state, we are 100 fulfilled, thank you, but as for the situation in the republic, in general, in my opinion , you also assess our republic doesnt have any special problems, these are the problems. Or now there are technical issues that, as always , need your help, well, now we are returning to the broadcast of the Plenary Meeting of the moscow financial forum, andreevichs proposal did not pass, and the others do not propose, we will to look for money, well, then well probably start looking with kostina, so the question is not for antuluvich, but for andreyunovich first, andreyovich, at what percentage will you give the money . Do you mean interest specifically on the budget . Yes, not just money, because there is money in the country, in fact, and they dont even know where to invest, we have a big business, received big dividends last year, but there is no privatization, state corporations have occupied almost the entire economic clearing, so business is struggling there trying, then, to buy Outgoing Western companies, but here the central bank is quite rightly standing in the way of this, i think this is a very correct decision, they need not to release them, because when they make the decision to send all our money to ukraine, we will take it away from them and then we will carry it out auctions, but that means, well, we are not against giving money, we have never refused, especially if the central bank will refinance for us those loans that we actually give by buying federal loan bonds, which means it will finance, but for 24 hours, for us i would certainly like to longer, thats why ive always been in favor of borrowing, but they tell me that you cant borrow too much. Expensive to maintain, also partly true, although my analysts there did the math and decided that it means it can be increased to 40 , well, god knows who the analyst is right and who is wrong, i dont know, so the state. Today there is one source, exactly, which he uses , gradually increasing the internal debt , by the way, about the attractiveness of the ruble, of course, for citizens it is true, but still , you must agree, western money has gone to us form of currency and we wont replace them with anything, because for an american to invest money in the russian economy, its like a prison there , yes, so its definitely already happened, its definitely going to affect the Exchange Rate, its not going anywhere, but if we return to the sources , that means an increase in debt, it will go some way, i dont argue, its not as radical as it was before, but it is still increasing, this is natural, as long as there is a budget deficit, the second source is what i have always proposed , still be more selective in spending budget, it seems to me that today there is definitely some direction that was possible , so they told me that there will be a program of state support for civilian drones, and where they can be launched now, in my opinion, they have banned it everywhere, which means thats why, and a number of others, probably quite a lot of government programs, Anton Germanovich, who always has to, means with this, yes, well, the third option , which, unfortunately, is becoming more and more on the agenda, is of course an increase in taxes, here is an increase in key, key rate, which means a reduction in consumer demand and even an increase in taxes, in my opinion, this will be quite difficult for business in the country, so. If we dump this whole complex on it now, yes, then they say, okay, were on the sucker is ready, but just give us a clear position, too, that means, what will happen next , this is a combination of all these negative facts, they are just at the moment when we need structural restructuring and large investments in well in assets in Industrial Assets especially yes, it will be a little hard, so i i say, we dont have an easy life ahead of us, but we can handle it. I think we have the capabilities for this and, in general, the policy of the central committee, the central bank of the Russian Federation and the government, and the reservation , correct, anaton germanovich, as an experienced negotiator, Andrei Leonidovich was not the first to name the figure, always loses, as you know, whoever the first one names a figure in the negotiations, at what rate he is ready to give you money, then i ask you a practically floating question. I want to ask, no, you already said that you wont say anything, thats why the question is, Anton Germanovich , at what rate will you take money from kostina, and i also wanted to ask what the bank Interest Rate is, androvich is for the people, and the bank Interest Rate is for the people, i say, for the people, well, our benchmark is what the Central Bank Gives us, you see, everything is so difficult to talk about, its a little further, but as it happens, there is no other way, in fact, he is an intermediary, so he has no money. We have such a circulation of money in the banking system, banks mean here andrey leonidovich, there are other state banks, the rates for borrowing are not small, yes, 12 , 12 , i name the numbers, then these rates form the profit of state banks, and then we take this profit back to the budget through dividends, well, like this we have a circular flow, although not all banks want to pay dividends, but we will. work and work in this regard, therefore in a number of countries the income tax for banks is higher than the income tax for ordinary sectors, and one more , another innovation, here it is now the banks really dont want to lend money, which means at normal Interest Rates, i would say, at normal Interest Rates for the state, thats why it survives that we will increase their profitability, there for 12, he says, well, for 13 well take , 13 will be, well, lets see, well take it for 14, but no, no, we wont give it, and we consulted with the ministry of finance, the government, and decided to limit borrowing this year, well , probably by about a trillion rubles, reduce the program, so let them sit now and lend the economy, and not the budget, well , in general, this is actually a good question. 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Number of advertisements for the sale of apartments. If we take it away, it will be a failure to fulfill contractual obligations and agreements. Andrei falach, i generally propose that this issue be considered at the parliamentary platform, and that is , the government proposes that we do this. This may not always be the case for us. It turns out well, i think you can do it. Thank you, that is, it is called, for this you need to choose the one you feel less sorry for, thats good, this is a normal approach, good, its clear that there are a huge number of issues that can be discussed, it is very important that we have fewer and fewer people on stage , but people dont leave the hall, maybe we need to start leaving, then the hall will start to leave, we can still, or maybe let someone come and sit down, no, okay, so. Still a question, which i cant help but ask tomorrow a draft federal budget for 3 years will be submitted to the state duma, and as always, this is a question of what we expect, what business expects, what the regions expect, what awaits you priorities, here i would like, anton gi, a question for you, but i would like you to simultaneously answer the question that. Andreyovich just raised when he said guys, what will happen to taxes . We dont currently see bills to increase taxes, there arent any, although in general there is an increase, its generally happening somewhere, if possible, here are your budget priorities, budget priorities, and what to expect for business, regions, and so on, budget priorities
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