Transcripts For BLOOMBERG Countdown 20140915

Hello, welcome. To you. Ry good day lets get back to our top tory. Activist were out in full force in the final weekend for the september 18 valid. Prime minister David Cameron will return to scotland for the second time in a week to fight for the future of the united kingdom. Both yes and no campaign they whichre poised to win, releases further uncertainty into financial market. Lets have a poll catch up. There were so many polls over the weekend. The results of which have been contradictory. Too close to call is what we have in hearing. The is ahead. Leave wasof the no quite significant. Camp was essential. Back with a Health Warning. Be careful. Ying, it has got a bit of a Health Warning because of the way it was taken. Date with get up to the way the polling was. Pole whereng at the we saw an 87 turnout. That is phenomenal when compared the turnout. The young seem to be just as which iss the old, amazing for it. It means the no campaign has a theof work to do because young have been moving to the yes campaign. One other thing i thought was fascinating the reason both s name aso proponent the biggest factor in their decision. It is also about trust. The young, the youth. When you were 18, how would you vote . When you are 18 its a very different matter. You heard alexander darling is going tot how it be paid. They say if scotland vote yes, the scottish economy will weaken and the next five years 63 . Also asked her to to weaken 10 years expected to weaken 10 it says because of the relocation of financial and the tuitions, we could see that benefit to london house right is as prices have fallen. He rebounded. What happened if scotland vote yes . The possible impact for the rest of the u. K. Could cause uncertainty in the minds of movers. L home over should be independent vote win the day, there could be months of uncertainty with the forthcoming general election causing uncertainty. London house prices did rise last month. Corporate have the out again. Find anyoneult to supporting the yes campaign. Big Defense Companies they they are likely to lose orders. The government hasnt laced orders and world war ii. Why would they change . Rbs, andlook at another based or he is a have pensionable employees. If you have crossborder liabilities, they would have a pension deficit. That was as of march of 2013. They would have to cover that deficit up. It would have to be fully funded. They go on to say this has been a black hole recovery. Up corporate retirement plans. Then you look at someone like hewlett packard, and they are talking about the reality. The likes of hewlettpackard on the technology side. Of logistical practicalities divorcing systems, tech elegy systems within the department take elegy systems within the Department Technology systems within the department. How does it possibly end with your divorce partner defending over months. We look at this through a business lens. A lot of this this is leaking out and saying businesses speaking up. He wrote in the sunday herald over the weekend. He said there is little basis for scaremongering. He is looking at things through a different lens. He said there is more than shortterm gain and monetary. Just a reminder of the different lenses you can apply to this and the different criteria. Ask they looked at the reasons people are switching from yes to no. There are five reasons. Is the positive message and grassroots nature was helping to win hearts and minds. The negative nature of the no campaign has turned away would the supporters. We will have a do more on scotland. You can join us on twitter. Wantver conversation you to have, here are our handles. Do join us. Lets do a quick line on breaking news. You have the telecoms operator. ¥13. 80 norwegian krone. Norwegianuying the company. They are going to cut the Dividend Office announced men. . Did you see the travel news they have reached agreement on the terms. Renewed clashes in ukraine. This followed rats of retaliation. Brian joins us now. Ring us more. Certainly russian retaliation. Russia threatened to retaliate. Russia says they want to maximize the impact. A month and a half ago they banned. Airline may be carmakers is another one to look at. Have the most outsized presence in russia. If you think about their presence relative to their size. The group has counted on russia for their biggest source of profit. We heard from the finance her, saying, we are concerned about the risk, but we think it is manageable. One of the biggest three of the foreign banks in the country. Ukraine as well. We heard the risk isnt just that they would behead in retaliatory sanctions but also the worst the economic backdrop. Fitch talking about the russian economy going into a technical recession. The economy may decline by of by as much as 10 . You have just combat from the ukraine. Are we in a new phase . We have john kerry. We have stored a lavrov meeting lavrov meeting. You see it reflected in the ruble this morning. It just hit 30 again, the lowest it has ever been against the dollar, down more than half a percent. No one is sure this is over just yet. One positive we had is the exchange of prisoners. They exchanged one for one. That is a positive. Talking to the ukrainian president on friday. There are two other things that are important. Nato says russias the house more than 1000 troops. In any case the withdrawal of Russian Troops he said that is now over. Many parts to this puzzle that have yet to be resolved. They have the markets on edge. There was that conference in buts that was on iraq, theyre gay lavrov but sergei meetv and john kerry could. There is a new convoy going into ukraine. This time not check by anybody, not check by ukrainian officials, not checked by the red cross, not checked by the throngs of reporters that were there the first time. In addition, the United States is joining in military exercises. Fire wont be live exercise. Anytime american troops show up as part of international exercises come a it doesnt go well with the russians. 11 00. S 12 minutes past we look at the implications of a from the united kingdom. We will get his outs after the break. Thoughts after the in three days to go until hot and cap it ballot cap until scotland casts it ballot. David cameron warned that leaving the u. K. Would be a dangerous double for scotland gamble for scotland. We still dont know. It would be a disaster for scotland. We dont know how we are going to replace the market for National Health service. We dont know who is going to pay pension. Running assist the chief economist at goldman sachs. What is your biggest worry . , all is scottish recession sorts of worries. Your number one, number two, and number three worries when it comes to this referendum. Issue isk the biggest we have to see a lot of uncertainty at the end of this week. There is going to be a more uncertainty in the event of a yes vote. Even in the event of a no vote, given that side of the camp aint is are posing significant changes to the area, we are going to see uncertainty on that side. Neither markets or economies, especially given recent three, are going to be appreciated of another layer. Even if we get a no vote, we could see cobb additional demand cant the two chanel demand demand. Itutional all kinds of conversations could come out of this. Ld this be preoccupation preoccupying . Ask there are a lot of issues international and the messed with the u. K. Have to deal with. I think the uncertainties you face about how to deal with fiscal arrangement within the u. K. , what role scotland will have, how northern ireland, wales, and english regions react to that in an area where we already have a political situation in britain where english nationalism and responsiveness to the english layerian is an additional of uncertainty. With the potential for referendum on the ee you on the eu, i think were in for greater political uncertainty. That is something that will raise questions on what markets havent been focused on. Maybe they u. K. Will come back into focus. We cover lots of polls over the past 30 days. Fund managers and risk and concerns. Everybody is trying to grapple what does would mean for the u. K. In terms of growth and credit. Do you get a sense the treasury are modeling. I am curious what modeling is goldman sachs. Would you carry any risk into friday . The trouble is it is more than risk. It is general uncertainty. That is the business, but what ethical to digest difficult to digest is genuine uncertainty we face. It is hard to price. In some sense, whether it is a yes or no vote, we are going to be facing a time when they have political interactions. You mentioned the divorce analogy and what starts off as can intended and what create a winwin situation can become acrimonious and lead to problems. Is where thaty should go and where it will lead. Can you talk about the east the beat . The ecb . Scotland is the big thing this week. It is the first round of longterm financing operation. Between we have the results of the review of banks. Does that make part one less important . We have tended to think of that wet two operations will go into 2016, to think of those operations together. Cap the amount it is prepared to inject into these situations. Point is who will take over. I think with uncertainties this also gives reason for caution in terms of going to these operations now. That mr. Hat, now druggie has reinterpreted, that was a key element. I think the wanted to of take up in growth terms and net terms, looking that weve all have revealed refinancing operations we still have the refinancing that will be a focus great to have you with us. Thank you very much. It is evan 22. After a short rate, countdown returns. A short break before european equities returned. They with us. Stay with us. A Hung Parliament in sweden. The Prime Minister was out by voters in elections. Our International Chorus bond and has been following the story. Correspondent has been following the story. What is the take so far on these elections . The tax cutting, the decrease in social welfare, that is over, but the question is what is happening next. There is horsetrading. Short of aill far majority, even if you add them , theyh Coalition Partners only get to 159 or 100 xt. 160. They are 12 short. Welder. Er is a former when you look at the numbers, his party came in at 43 . Is thistion really antiimmigration party. Democrats came in almost 13 . The new leader has said he will rule out a coalition with the antiimmigration party. That means the question is what happens next. Markets dont like the uncertainty. The kroner is trading near a twomonth low. Turnout was high, but they need to come to some certainty for investors. Thanks for that four new coming up, polls on Scottish Independence came out over the weekend. The fourth gave the yes campaign the largest yet. Welcome back. Just coming off its 14 month high. The last hang out it looks like they are crumbling. The whipping boys yasiel dollar. Ghazi dollar drops below 90. You had a double punch. The industrial output at china is a lowest level in the recession began. It was the highest it has been since july 2013. Iron ore is off as well. At the Swedish Krona are. Of 2012. Vels and june at 43. 7 in thes polls. It may be time to price in a for theit more risk Swedish Krona are. U. S. The gregarious eight john kerry eight john kerry will meet foreign leaders in paris as an swap a long post and in hosts a conference in signaled. Allies have readiness to step up the fight against Islamic States after a coalition formed i president obama. Have states have publicly committed, several said i believe they are willing to join in strength in iraq and syria. North korea assented than american detainee to six years of hard labor for what they described as half full at. Asived in the country harmful acts. The u. S. Will send an envoy to negotiate really. Outland is read is away from a referendum on Scottish Independence. Three but the and ahead put the no campaign ahead. Professorned i curtis. Thanks for joining us. Latestperspective the polling results. Equaley all created weston mark which ones are you watching . Are they all created equal . Which one are you watching us to mark asked that was based on the smaller sample size than usual. Only 700 were contacted. Bet means it is a likely to out of line. We should probably not put too much weight on that. There are three opinion polls over the weekend where the yes vote was between 36 and 29 , all agreeing it was both, but probably with no sides having the and vantage. Rangelook at the broader of opinion polls they have between 36 and 51. It is still close. Sufficiently close that no one can be quite sure of what the outcome is. Says he is given a similar analysis, suggesting no will triumph. The reason he goes into is because it is the economy. He said voters got closer to the precipice. They decided not to jump after all. Would you go along with his this . This is about the economy, and people will lose their nerve . It is clear those people who think independence is good for scotlands economy are likely to be yes voters. The improvement position compared to a month ago is underlined by a greater degree of optimism about the consequences of independence. One way it could switch his people drop back from the judgment and say, maybe it is too much of a wrist. Risk. S also of a what is also going on is it is a onceinalifetime vote. If you dont seize the opportunity now, its not going to come around any time to and. The last few days are going to be a battle between the yes side trying to tell people to seize the opportunity and the no side saying to avoid the risk. We cannot be sure, because one thing for which there is not much support is keeping scotlands, the tuition all constitution the way it is. It is, do we go for independent or more within the u. K. . Both involve moving away from what the country has come comfortable with. Risk these arguments about wont necessarily have the resident they have had another referendum. Area interest in. Very interesting. Tell us about the lack of consistency we have in and these polls. They can be 6 in one poll or 23 in another. Tell us about the fact there is no precedence and calibrating the result. What is it going on that means we have such the verge and outcomes . The one thing the poll still varies is dont knows. They asked effort westerns. You get a low level if you ask people what they are going to do now as opposed to what they are doing on thursday. The explanation is a salty one. Those are more likely to get the people interested in politics who have made their minds up. Here are more dont knows i would argue they are underestimating the amount of people who have not made the position. Tohink it is a mistake believe there are many people out there who have no idea what they are going to do. A fifth of the Scottish Population who have an idea of what they are going to do. They are saying, i think i am going to vote yes, but i not quite sure. It is not necessarily that people have no idea, but rather they are still listening. Toy are going to have persuade people to depart from the inclination they already have. Us. Wegs for joining have breaking news on ali baba. They are set to raise the ipo price range. Aey are using new york as base level, and we are just waiting for a little bit of the tells. Details. According to people with knowledge, they have stopped taking orders. They had the additional capacity to issue more stocks. Saying earlier it has enough demand to sell it stock at a highend in the 66 price range. We will see where that comes in. Air france is bracing for the most instructive strike in 1998. Pilots are walking out. They are paying the flight crews less. , reallyc situation the golden contract. It is going to be a very disruptive day. 60 of islets are expected to walk out today. Pilots are expected to walk out today. Usually the Airline Tries to haul flights. Ng it found like a real mixture. They are telling passengers if possible to fly another day. At this point they are saying it is 20 Million Euros a day. Strike is asked acted expected to last until next monday. Remind us what they are doing that is so contentious. There are different employment contract. What they are trying to do is what every other Network Carrier is trying to do. They are taking a dutch charter unit and trying to expand that to 100 lanes. Put this into context. Ryanair planes. Lane they are trying to make the discount operations work. You just have to reduce the cost. That means pilot get paid less. A want everyone to have the same and stay thentract same. We have to leave it there. Thanks for telling us about that strike. A report showing European Companies are around one trillion euros of cash reserves. Welcome back. I am looking at the bond index measuring global sovereign debt market. In 14. Gest twoweek drop it felt all the way down there. The worst performance june 13. Is the fed will change it language. A jump in borrowing costs threaten threatens to cycle the recovery. Point,ld rose i 15 basis the most for a year. The u. S. Rate outlook and the strengthening economy and the united date, the gap between u. S. 10 year treasury and its peers is the highest. They are pushing the index down weeks. Consecutive only a few weeks ago it was a it higher than 2012. Today is part chart. The just to clarify. Babad breaking news on ali before we went to the break. The initial Public Offering it looks like our sources are telling us that could be up to 70. They have enough demand. They produce everything from jeep. N to armor plated cagingol cleaners. Dolphins is usually considered cruel, but not if they are made of plastic and the dirt. Eat dirt. The biggest cleaner is right here. It can clean an olympic size Swimming Pool in six hours. If you decide to take the plunge, it will take you around 11,000. Among private owners, they already have a near 41st of market share. Ales are soaring there is till plenty of room for growth. Estimate 21 million pools worldwide. There are between 2 million and 3 million pools. Huge. Ential is resultrazil says that almost 2 million of the pools are claimed by humans. It is high tech stuff, but that is not to say there arent any challenges. But they are about dirty percent instruction. Weather. Any prolonged winter in the u. S. Or and couldays orders have a negative impact on the business. There seems to be no stopping the march of the dolphins. The company is aiming to triple revenues, making the owners million errors in the process. Errors millionair s in the process. Price we will talk after a short break. Welcome back. European companies are holding. N to more cash reserves here to talk as through it is the head of research. Inc. Are coming in. Is this a european trend, or is it global . One thing we want to look at is how it is playing out in europe. I think we have caught a real change in corporate behavior. Increased the amount they stockpile cash. There is real good learn about the environment. You can see that in corporate behavior. The real question is when a they going to invest in growth . Tooe green shoots is strong, but we do see for the first time 50 of companies are saying their prime object to in the year ahead is growth. Think that is good news you have to counterbalance with the fact ayers il stockpiling the cash. They are still stockpiling cash. One thing that drop me is when you talk to these companies it is about what the ecb is doing. You say what europe needs is aboutent, not cash. It is takingking cash banks cash from the ecb. You can read many of them have got a lot of cash. Question is about confidence. When we asked what are the drivers it was early about what is going on in the market based. In every section when you look at consumer business, the bottom of the list was government initiatives. Numbertability is the one factor. Last of the list was government there was a clear policy. You have a recommendation. The Companies Need to establish a chief growth officer. On . His going to catch farhe mind that has become too skewed to one side of the spec room. What we are saying is we need to move the pendulum to the other side of the rectum and how are we going to achieve that. Was a way of saying, at the table we have a buddy who is shouting for growth. Debate at the board room table, which arguably hasnt happened. But what of the Ways Companies can optimize Growth Strategy . Ask we have five. We have five. What is the balance one is the valid. Things we looked at is they are going to invest in people. We seem to have it act on the agenda back on the agenda, which is reprising. Things for joining us. To bring young market action. We will watch heineken sales as well. It is monday. I am Jonathan Ferro at louvered headquarters the city of london. We are minutes away from the heart of the open. Cotton is set to dominate scotland is set to dominate headlines. We will have the buildup and everything it means to the market. Caroline, let start with you. Early to talk beer . It is a deal that could be brewing in the industry. They have approached heineken. Is this about more consolidation . I will be back with more a bit later. Showe polls still contradictory warnings as we look ahead to the vote on Scottish Independence on thursday. We have David Cameron as he tries to pull together the union. Both sides are saying their Research Shows they will be victorious on thursday. The ruble is retreating this morning. It has weakened against the dollar already today. That brings us to a new record low. Back to you. Let talk about russia. Let talk about china as well. Uterus down up heard of 1 , indicating a lower open. Down a third of 1 , indicating a lower open. As an indication of toxic shock. The Federal Reserve has changed the language. Down. Aowth going growth rate of 6. 4 . Do we need more stimulus . Crude at the lowest double in years. Electricity dropped for the First Time Since 2000. Iron ore trading toward 70. Implantls in the business. It was about the ruble. Tother they still hold on the gains is anyone to debate. What is your risk . The risk is russia and ukraine lares up. Record lows on dollar ruble. In terms of equities stories it is could openken. They the door to a potential deal. Anheuserbusch will come in and trade. The personification that whatever happened. This company is on right. Flight could be canceled this week. When it comes to politics that is not just the dominant theme. In sweden you see a complete change in date government. State government. You have it isedish krona down. The lowest june of 2012. The worst performing current the in the g 10. That is the Swedish Krona. The immediate this way comes through in the aussie Dollar Dollar trade. It dipped below the 90 level for the First Time Since march of this year. Chinas and the Great Recession again. The aussie dollar is under pressure. They just move too soon. The avi dollar taking punishment. The market is down by 0. 4 . The lower open. Lets get respect to with daniel morris. He is a global strategist. It iso have you back. Scotland. Everybody is walking about that in the u. K. Talk about that in the u. S. What are they saying . Whacks it has only been over the , and you haveo seen that reaction more than anywhere else. We are concerned about that. We expect them to come out with a no vote. We are much more nervous than we had been. From the u. S. , do you look at assets a little differently from years to come . But i think we need to separate from the rest of europe. Debtave the international you dont see in europe. The u. K. Is a break from that. Back lets talk about the dollar side of the trade. The dollar is up against other currencies. Do we need to be a little more careful . We had qe ending. You would ask that the dollar to start strengthening. Think the process is beginning of a bigger risk in emerging markets. How does janet yellen come to the party . Talk about a subtle pivot. . Re we going to get that certainly the debate is going to be ongoing. Time you get a clear signal we are going to have rate of in the u. S. Keep in mind is ultimately it is a positive. We have this extraordinary monetary policy. Be positive. Uld do you think economic fundamentals would justify where the markets are at s check mark are optimistic . We think it is raised not just on qe. We have to take a look at the end of this Interest Rate hike. We are not going to get to the levels you his horribly would have seen. Were going to go up but not as much as in the past. Ithave an environment where seems to be a tinge of the plan of japan. A bit overweight u. S. Equities . It is still there. There is a potential with reasonable valuation that makes you feel more confident. Chris stays with the. Were going to talk about europe and london as well. The Company Comes out this morning and says, they have lifted the forecast. They say profit will be material ahead. Aterially a battle is brewing. Takeover. Urned down a how long can they keep it independence . We will talk about that after the break. Stay with us. We will be back in two. Welcome back. This is on the move. Lets talk about russia. There were renewed clashes in ukraine over the weekend. This follows sanctions from the the e. U. Last week. Ryan joins us with more. We have seen some market reaction. Hit dirty eight against the dollar. 38 against the dollar. Another thing we are watching is oil and now the new sanctions and restrictions on x boards for the oil industry might affect russian Oil Producers. I just got off the phone with us but men from russias largest oil company. It has had several sanctions posed upon imposed on it. They are drilling and asked oratory well. Many people calling it the most important to be drilled this year anywhere in the world. The spokesman telling me he has a seen any change in the relationship with exxon since the sanctions were introduced, underscoring exxon has been a reliable art and her. It remains to be in whether with can continue to work them. Price we have Sergei Lavrov meeting with john kerry. What do we expect from there . I am sure they are going to talk about ancient. Sanctions. This comes before russia retaliates with their own sanctions. I am sure they are going to talk about the season wire ceasefire. There are new in the cks inonship new cra the relationship. Unlike the first column none of them actually saw what was in those trucks. Didinternational committee not inspect those trucks. That is not something secretary kerry is going to understand. I am sure we will hear about the u. S. For dissipating in military participating in military exercises. Things are a much. Thanks very much. Lets get more on that issue. When you look at the situation in russia, what is clear over the last couple weeks, it doesnt matter how much the system escalates. The sanction out of the eu doesnt have much teeth. It is not as good. You anticipate you have some Companies Impacted that no broader economic impact. You have a situation where you eagerr retaliation retaliation from the russians when it comes to energy. Do things just they were they are . Is this the new normal . It doesnt seem like we are going to see a big change in foreign policy. It might be something we have to adjust to. What do you like . But i think we are eating the virgin i think we are seeing that the virgin between the equity markets. Valuations with terminator look quite good. They will continue to produce reasonably strong earnings. Rally we want to see. That can continue. What we have seen is big invest in coming out of the myted states into europe. Experience is it was really bad or great. Bye, bye,going to say bye. What are you hearing now . But there is a potential for much stronger earnings growth, because markets are low. The potentials weeks to stronger earnings growth. That is a potential for the market. Qe is still a little cautious. What is the basis to buy equities . Is there such excitement about european stock . Because relative to the u. S. It . S a better opportunity because europe is so quite a bit below. It is that a tensile to get back to the highest you had in 2007. It is that trigger. At some point you need to breach those highs. It is how quick you are going to get there. I want to talk about this the virgin erie. Theory. Gence the intention is there. Do you think they are going to get their Balance Sheet up a trillion euros . You need to think about what the impact is going to be. We dont really need qe4 that and how much impact that has on the economy is not so clear. I think where we may see the biggest impact is the current the. Eurotart to see a weaker because of the printing of currency. You probably want to look at x orders outside of the eurozone. People see one word, and that is risk. Which was dan. For you . I think about the impact over the longer term. It is going to be the fed. Tois going to be beginning think about tightening that is going to be choppy. Especially when we get to earnings season i think it is going to be language and common that is going to drive the market very good can janet 2013 2. 0 . That without i think you dont want to upset the horses. Just smooth communication. Knowing where they are going to go is the most important thing. European let check on european equities. The ftse 100 is down by 0. 4 . The battle is brewing for heineken. We will tell you the full story next. What is going on . We will tell you after the break. Welcome back. One and halfise billion dollars in a Public Offering. This would be the biggest ipo were the United Arab Emirates ever. Slump. Of sinopec they are selling 17 and a half earlier dollars from the retail business. China life and a will by the 30 they can gain access to the fuel stations. Have filed. R you they will close all of the shops. No more phones for you commercials. Brewers. O watching heineken has rejected a takeover bid. Caroline hyde has got the details. Heineken said they want to stay independent. Will it . The family wanted to remain independent. It was only the last couple weeks it was approached i the second biggest or were. It has the emerging markets rose for heineken. S of focus in terms of asia and africa as well. It wouldnt come cheap. We understand the family doesnt like the idea of losing it independent. Thats why heineken has been such a difficult target. Lets talk about why sab. Iller is doing this this seems to be more about protection that may be a strategy it sells it self. Good for the number one player in the world. Maybe sab miller is trying to delay any sort of willing, or is it trying to flush it out . Maybe they will make us will if sab miller looks like it could be a critic of it self. This is such an area of consolidation, this entire market. This is why you arent eating other companies also rising in terms of just seeing other companies also rising. The beer market is ripe for consolidation. The way it is growing is pushing down costs and asked then emerging markets. Markets. Ing emerging we are not drinking as much beer anymore. Int is why consolidation has phenomenal. You saw 90 billion worth of m a happen. 5 billion. St it has really low down as many tried to reshape where they are looking. Has been to beef up in terms of eying other assets buying other assets. We have seen the share moves. It is about getting into emerging markets. Go for africa. We are pretty luggage when it comes to increasing volume. Consolidation is the name of the game. If you are looking at stocks they are all pushing higher. Another company we are going to watch is air france. The airline braces for its worst talk to meyears. About the scale of the strike first. I am not traveling air france. It is going to be a tough dave areas 60 of islets are that is going to lead to half of pilots going on strike. Normally they try to protect the long haul. It is going to mean cancellations in long and short haul. They are telling passengers to try to fly another day if you it is going to last until monday unless you can come with an agreement. The share price is lower. How do we end this . What do the pilots want . Thats what air france is trying to do is develop a discount unit. What the pilot do not want is via four tra nsavia to be paid less. Management is likely to push back. We will have to see what happens. As we head to the break room downck the price of oil. 15 over the last premonth. What is behind that move . Is it supply or concerns about demand. I am on twitter. We are back in two. Welcome back to on the move. I am Jonathan Ferro. You know what time it is. 30 minutes into your trading day and this is what the equity market looks like. Ftse 100 down by 0. 4 . The dax is lower. Everybody looking to china. Some disappointing date of there. Equity markets trading lower this monday morning. Lets get your movers with caroline hyde. I am focusing on the positive. You have to be optimistic at the start of the week. It is all about potential consolidation in the beer market. Sab miller, the secondbiggest player in the world when it have to beer, you might sucked on a few over the weekend, trading up almost 5 . Over the last two weeks, they have apparently made a bid for heineken. The heineken family arent willing to lose their independence. They rebuffed the opportunity to be bought by sab miller. Spark a whole new era of consolidation . Many feel the beer market is ripe for it. Slow to 5 billion last year. Compare that to 90 billion over the last decade. Aearly right to see a bit of rant up right now. This is perhaps the winner in a bad situation. Dixons car phone up 3. 1 . Big in the united car kingdom when it comes to selling phones. It has more than 550 shops around the u. K. And more than 5000 employees. We understand they are looking towards pwc to become its administrator. Vodafone no longer wanting to sell. It seems that we have got a winner in a sad situation. Back to you. There is free stocks, here is three headlines. The aussie dollar weakened to a more than fivemonth low this morning. That is after Chinese Industrial and retail data is deepening. Factory production rose 3. 9 versus 8. 8 estimates while retail sales also trailed economist forecasts. Sweden faces a hungry parliament after backing the antiimmigration suite and democrats more than doubled voters yesterday after the government handed power to a social democratled opposition. The outcome sent the krone to its lowest against the euro in two months. Prime minister David Cameron returns to scotland today for the second time in a week. To warn scots that a vote for independence would mean a permanent break from the u. K. Alastair darling echoed this sentiment to bbcs andrew marr. It is the biggest decision we will ever take. If we vote to leave the u. K. On thursday, there is no going back. Wherenot like an election you can change your mind if things dont work out. If things go wrong, we already voted, there is no way back. Looking at the polls, we got four of them and they gave hope to both sides of the debate. For more on that and a lady that i know is all over every single ball that drops, it is anna edwards. Where are we now . Just days away. We are still on a knife edge. Absolutely. Four pulls out over the weekend. Three out of four of those say the is in the lead. The range of the lead was great divergence around that. Anything from eight points to 1. 2 points. One out of four gave the yes camp ahead. It put it ahead by a substantial amount, the biggest we have seen yet. However, we spoke to the man who runs the poll of polls. He was a little bit cautious on reading too much into that poll that gave the yes camp such a strong lead. He also gave us Something Interesting to think about. Weekendaid over the that things would be a little bit like they were with quebec. It is all about the economy, he says. People will get close to voting yes. They will get cold feet because they will worry about the economy and pullback. What he said this morning was that because both sides, both choices represent change, substantial change, there is risk on both sides. He wonders whether the parallels of quebec are diminished. David cameron in scotland today. Saveer attempt to try and the union from the u. K. Prime minister. Plenty of businesses trying to save the union as well, really emphasizing the negatives of Scottish Independence. Have we seen that continue . We have seen more surrounding that. The retailers were very vocal last week. They continue to speak out in the sunday papers. The sunday telegraph found that nearly 80 said that yes, there would be significant negative affects on the u. K. If scotland were to leave. Rbs also very much in the frame as far as companies are concerned. Suggested they would have a 5. 6 billion pound pension deficit they would need to plug. Have beench houses very vocal on this as well. We had dire warnings from deutsche bank. The worst decision since the u. K. Went back on the gold standard. The ball have been talking about economic contraction, all of that on top of the warnings from supermarkets and mobile phone companies. Now capital spreads saying that two thirds of city managers expect the scottish economy to weaken in the next five years if there is a yes vote. Plenty of doomsayers out there. A lot of people will be board to hear these dire warnings from the investment bank. Give me one person in the Financial Community that is on the yes side. Enter stage left, or should it be enter stage yes, joseph stiglitz, Nobel Laureate economist. He has been advising the yes campaign. He was writing over the weekend that there is little basis for all of this scaremongering. He is a reminder of how you can look at this through different lenses. He is downplaying the Foreign Exchange risk. He says the economies of scotland and england are so linked that there are various solutions. He says what is more important is whether there is a shared vision of the future. He says the scottish vision of social justice is best delivered alone or with the rest of the u. K. He says this vote is not about shortterm gains. Just a reminder that there are we hear a lot from economists , from fund managers. There are different ways of looking at what is happening. Thanks. Lets keep it on politics and move over to paris. French president Francois Hollande and the iraqi president are speaking in paris. They are speaking at a coalition that hollande is hosting on how to aid iraq against Islamic State militants. That is the iraqi president. Francois hollande said the french are ready to play their part in the iraq military support. Are expecting to hear more from David Cameron on this issue as well. If you are looking at what is happening in iraq and you post this against the price of brent, you might be surprised. The price of brent over the last three months has fallen. It is down by over 15 . I want to get some insight on what is happening in this market. I am joined by the Senior Oil Analyst at ihs. Geopolitical risk almost everywhere. Russia, the middle east almost having its worst year since 2008. It is a supply and demand story. What we see in the mediumterm is a combination of factors playing into a demand market which is looking a lot riskier than it did before. Some of those concerns of geopolitical risk are forcing down Economic Growth. We passed through the summer so we are entering a period where there is weaker demand. Expectations are being lowered. That doesnt account for the fall in oil on its own. Libya has bounced back just recently with 900,000 barrels a day of production. At the moment, pretty high. Northg story is still america. It continues to expand. We continue to get more supply coming through. That is meeting demand by more than enough so that as demand grows, we are seeing more than enough oil to meet it. What happened over the past week or so is that markets have come to the view that the situation is one that is going to be in play for the mediumterm. We see long positions being unwound. I think it is a bit overdone. There is so much geopolitical risk out there. The isis situation seems to have been more under control now. They are at the moment only threatening northwest iraq where there isnt a huge amount of oil. Nonetheless, that still has a huge amount of risk for the region and the russiaukraine situation is far from settled. There are potential risks of that situation over the winter months. That could filter through into oil markets. There is a lot of potential risk out there. We think may be the price move is excessive. I want to talk about the supply side. We talk about increased nonopec supply. The u. S. It simulated the oil market, this risk. Tell me how much of a game changer this is. Can we really count on the u. S. Supply for the next 5, 10 years . I think we can. Some of the same discoveries and finds and oilfields we saw early on but there is an off that is already being discovered to see us through the next five years with pretty ample supplies. If we didnt have that, opec Spare Capacity right now is about 3. 5 Million Barrels a day. 3. 5 millione than so we would be looking at a completely different situation. It is maybe not going to mean that we have this ongoing constant supply of oil. We havent looked for tied oil that much outside of the United States either. Certainly, the next five years, it is very much in play. Brand at 96. 54. At what point do you think opec is going to have to tighten . It is not just opec. It is the production of title producers. The prices that the producers are getting for their oil are lower still. You are reaching a level where they are not making much money. I think as you start to see production slowdown. Then the supply issue starts to come through. We think there is a pretty high floor of oil prices. We shouldnt expect things to keep falling at this rate. The demand side of the story, iea put out a report that said the demand side has gotten weaker. You say this move lower is overdone but if we dont get the recovery, could that play into a much Lower Oil Price . You can always overshoot. We saw that in 2008. We were down to 40 a barrel. That had an impact and it resulted in what we saw, the upswing again. There is always a fairly volatile market. If there is a really bad Economic Growth situation, we could find that we have too much oil out there. E Oil Producers are pretty sensitive to price declines. You need people to keep drilling to get that production through. If the price goes too far down, they stop drilling. We start to see prices bouncing back again. That is aside from the risks in places like libya. Final question. 96 now. 110e not getting back to this year, are we . It looks like we are in a lowerpriced environment. Thank you very much. As we head to the break, we will be talking about the big movers. Heineken poised to become a takeover target. Heineken up 1. 3 . Sab miller up 4. 8 . Welcome back. The deal down the drain, maybe. Heineken rejected a takeover bid by sab miller. The dutch brewer wants to stay independent. Let spring in matt campbell. You broke this story. I am looking at heineken and sab miller shares and icy sab miller up more than heineken. That is an interesting reaction to this. We are seeing sab miller shares up so dramatically. Market sees this as almost firing the starting gun on an even bigger transaction. That is ab inbev coming after sab miller. This notion of sab buyin heineken according to people familiar with the situation was imagined as a defensive move. This is sab trying to get bigger. Of all they cant, and second of all, sab management think abi is coming across for them. The market is going to price that in. Do you think sab miller has to go after heineken more aggressively . Day, therend of the is only so much they can do. This Family Foundation controls 50 of heineken shares. If the family doesnt want to sell, there is no way to make them. You cant go hostile. There are some other targets. Carlsberg has been talked about. A lot exposure to russia there. Not necessarily a must do in the heineken case. If sab doesnt want to be acquired by abi, they may have to start thinking about something . Where does the audio fit into all this . I asked them diageo fit into this . I asked them. The talk was they would have to stop sab miller. It seems everybody has got an interest in this. Where does diageo fit into this equation . We have seen diageo shares also on the move. Clearly the market is looking for some kind of consolidation in this whole space. Brewing, spirits, beer, all the rest. Whether diageo could participate is a big question mark. There are a few prizes out there. Heineken is one of them. Carlsberg potentially is one of them. Sab miller is one of them. Who are the acquirers . I dont think it is outlandish to suggest that diageo could be one. Should our big takeaway be we are going to see a lot more consolidation . The be aerospace is not growing on the whole. People tend to be drinking less beer, wine and spirits. We have seen over the last several years, deal after deal, sab and fosters, abi taking control of corona, people have followed the space closely. They expect this consolidation way to continue and then bankers can get to work on taking it apart again. Matt campbell, bloomberg deals reporter. Ruining everybodys weekend. Thank you very much. Agreed to aas transaction for the planned merger. The deal values the combined company at 6. 5 billion euros. The new tui will be listed on the Stock Exchange with a secondary quotation on germanys market. A swissis buying company for more than 2 billion. The company is paying 18 per share. That is 23 higher than nobels close. Shares are down more than 5. 5 . Just coming up to 8 50 here in london. The pulse is coming up. Your host is guy johnson. We are playing a big game today. Some guests coming up. We have Alistair Darling. The lead voice in the Better Together campaign. How do we keep the u. K. Together is the question that everybody is asking. Of chairmans that are being polled say they would rather see the u. K. Stick together. We are going to talk to him about why he is taking business so long to wake up to the risk. I am also going to ask him about whether it is actually better that we get a yes victory rather than a small note victory. Does Alistair Darling have to make sure that it is either go big or go home . That is the question we need to be asking him. We are also talking to the boss of tui. That merger has been confirmed this morning. A lot of analysts are very skeptical about that. Have they been overcome by the arguments . We will talk about that. We are going to talk to a number of figures from the private equity world about how they see scotland. Some great conversations coming up. The two big risks are, the fed, scotland. Go between a lot to now and then. A lot of interesting conversations to be had. Looking forward to it. Risk is the buzzword. Lets check in on equity markets here in europe. Equities lower. In two minutes time. That is what equities look like right now. Not a pretty sight on monday morning. Welcome back. Israel known for its technology but may be not its robotics. Have a look. Caging dolphins is usually considered cruel. Not if they are made of plastic and eat dirt. Made inrobot cleaners israel are the world number one by some length. The biggest and baddest is this big yellow one over here. An olympic sized Swimming Pool in six hours. This one is half olympic sized. It will set you back around 11,000. Among private pool owners, they already have a near 40 market share. Sales are shoring and have risen almost threefold over the past two years. There is still plenty of room for growth. We estimate the overall pool there are about 21 million pools worldwide. There are between 2 million to 3 million pools clean with robots. The Southern Hemisphere is still yet to be equipped with robots. Brazil offers particular potential. Almost all of its pools are cleaned by humans. He plans to boost the share of sales generated by pool covers and alarm systems which can alert lifeguards. It is hightech stuff but that is not to say there arent any challenges. Exposed to new construction. Counter in the u. S. Or european Housing Market would have an effect. Secondly, whether. Prolonged winter in the u. S. Or in europe delays could have a negative impact on the business. For now, there seems to be no stopping the march of the dolphins. The company is aiming to triple revenues by 2022, making members of its parent million errors. Elliott gotkine, israel. 11,000 for a pool cleaner. I am guessing if you can afford a pool in london, you can afford one of them. That is it for on the move and that is it for me. Still too close to call. David cameron is scotland as campaigning enters the final days. Ofare live with the leader the Better Together campaign, Alistair Darling. A currency left out in the cold. The ruble hits record lows as russias foreign minister meets secretary of state john kerry. And the hunter becomes the hunted. Sab miller shares jump after a failed takeover bid. The market now making it the new target