Everyone knows greece will repay 4 of gdp from the surplus. Anna later we look at what is best for business in the u. K. And europe in the first of three Bloomberg Politics special debates. We will discuss key issues facing both ahead of the general election with the Panel Including a formal chancellor and the chairman. Mark policy makers reveal a risk on terrain rates we bring you the details, plus, what you need to now ahead of todays bank of england rate decision. Anna good morning. Manus rk coming up, a 29 billion drug deal. Caroline lets head out to hong kong were stocks are surging. The market will catch up with its counterpart, the shanghai composite. Shery ahn has the story. We saw searches in escapes 6 earlier. In excess of 6 . Shery ahn 6. 4 , the most since 2009. Hunghong kong has been rising for the sixth consecutive day. So why are we seeing this sudden surge . Because investors are thinking hong kong shares will catch up to their counterparts in shanghai. The shanghai composite is falling 1. 2 , but remember, this is the first time we have fallen in days, not to mention that the shanghai composite only sold twice in the past three weeks. We saw a 90 surge in the past 12 months. Than doubled in the past 14 months. Mainland investors are thinking, that gap between shanghai and hong kong will narrow, so they are using up their quota to buy the hong kong stock. Just yesterday, turnover reached a record in volatility surpassed that of shanghai. There are evaluations that the discount could pierce the shanghai. Caroline at the moment, the shares are currently still more expensive. What will we see this counterbalance . Will we see it come together in terms of price . Shery ahn the thing is the gauge for mainland asia, the highest level in seven years already and we are seeing the China Enterprises finding 4. 8 . They are catching up. They are expecting chinese us stocks to be significantly higher over the course of the next 1224 months. Chinas official agency agreed, which says something they are saying in an article that chinese shares may have momentum to rise in the medium to longterm after some fluctuation. But the state of the chinese economy, investors are betting that we are going to see more similar. They are putting their money into equities and analyst are saying they may outperform hong kong shares just because they are more susceptible to move their Monetary Policy. Still, well seeing we are seeing that the gap may narrow. Caroline incredible volume thank you. Mark in europe, it is payday for greece. It marks the return for russia back to the harsh reality of empty coffers were the greek Prime Minister as the country continues to hackle with area creditors. They said the april 24 meeting is the deadline for approving the new money. The finance minister is in paris for the sixth annual conference of the institute of the economic thinking. So to present is our very own manus cranny, joining us now. Good morning. I know you caught up with the oecd. What did they have to say about the ongoing situation in greece . Manus it was yesterday evening that was the real heavyweights they came to debate the new economic thinking. That is why it is in many ways going to be here. I am in the gardens of the oecd hosting imf. He has dealt with them over the past three weeks they have had a number of meetings, and this is about trust. If you think why are they dealing with the oecd, and the capital again, it is because garnering trust that the administration can deliver on those promises. What we achieved . We are trying to create a common ground, a common language based on taxes and the collection thereof. The second is about corruption, the fight against corruption. More competition. So you can fight against monopolies, the oligarchy etc. Last but not least, to have a government that is functional and has the capacity to execute what is legislated and what is regulated. On these premises, we have built a corporation where the greeks tell us what their priorities are, and we informed them what are the best practices around the world, what has worked, what hasnt worked what is more effective, what we believe could work better. This is the arrangement we have and we are very good with communication. Manus i try to get to him, he is very calm and relaxed. Smart gathering last week, a pretty good debate. Mark manus, the acclaimed economist thomas picardy was there. Was he has controversial as always . Manus i think he was controversial from a couple different points. Stay tuned because i have got him on the u. K. And politics. We talked a lot about grexit and the possibility of being pushed or shoved but european politicians are quite specific. There is also the risk they could drive resell of the euro. I think they are also mistreating the eurozone as a rule is not doing well. Even in germany, the growth right now is less than what it is outside the eurozone. I think overall, they have done a very bad job. The prices which came from private sectors have turned into a debt crisis because manus never short of helping us into a new argument. Possibly pushing greece out. It will be interesting to see what happens. Hans has given up his raison detre in life. I hope we will catch up with them later in the day. We will bring you the president of the imf what is the new thinking . They are backed by some big, big names what do they hope to achieve in the new paradigm . Back to you. Mark thank you. I think many people are tired with the british edition. In case britain decides to release many people would react by saying i think in the end, the main costs will be incurred by britain. Caroline the cost of britain is playing a Critical Role in the next election. And that edwards joins us to break it down. Anna edwards joins us to break it down. And a 11 00 this morning, we will have the panel taking place on the subject of an eu referendum. It is right at the heart of the election that they election debate. There is some conditionality around it and the conservative party says they would like to hold a referendum. There are business voices on both sides of this debate and we will have them on the panel. My colleagues will be hosting the panel. John mills is a labor donor which makes it interesting he wants to see a referendum. Roland rudd is going to be on the panel. He points out what many Business Leaders say we dont know what any trade deals would look like. Without knowing that detail, it is very difficult to make it into four a informed decision. Broadly speaking, he runs a proeu business campaign. We also have the x chance will are on the panel the x chancellor on the panel. It is interesting that we have someone from the Defense Industry. Mark do not miss it. Whats the latest on the campaign trail . Anna it is going more towards defense today. It is being widely reported that the conservative foreign secretary is going to be talking about the conservative partys commitment to nuclear deterrent. That is topical because the s p has made it one of their redline issues. The labour party have said they are also committed to try. For the conservative party will want to use any opportunity to cut out in voters minds about how secure the country will be after a general election. Even though the labour party ruled out any direct relation, there is still this talk about whether there could be a vote by phone agreement between the two parties. Its interesting to see that he has been writing today a scathing personal attack on ed miliband, saying he stabbed his brother in the back and is now ready to snap the u. K. , talking about things he believes have posed he is going to try to like and labor politics to being childish and student like trying to paint a picture of the conservative party that is something we have seen from them in terms of campaigning tactics. It will be interesting to see the defense because it has been incredibly absent. The conservatives have been team to push their longterm economic plan ahead. Caroline getting very personal. Theyre also getting personal about shopping habits. The way in which voters shop. Anna were not entirely sure how people will vote in this election it will be very close, maybe a Hung Parliament. A Research Group is saying they are using shop and using shopping lists to design how we to decide how we vote. You are more likely to drink brussels sprouts and drink tea if you vote. Labour supporters are more likely to prefer loose tea. There is a serious point is that the cost of living and our ability to maintain Living Standards is a key part of the debate. They have done some research on how the average conservatives and laborers vote. They also talked about the rise of discounters. Yesterday i saw there we are. Things are changing in the shopping market in the u. K. Caroline interesting stuff. Anna edwards, thank you. Mark the u. S. Federal reserve policymakers were split last month over whether they would raise Interest Rates in june. The minutes posted show that they were arguing for Lower Oil Prices and a stronger dollar that would continue to curb inflation, arguing for a rate increase later in the year. A cherry convict Dzhokhar Tsarnaev of carrying out the 2013 Boston Marathon attacks. The phase of the trial could begin early next week. A deal would create a medical powerhouse the offer is a 25 premium for perrigo. Jamie dimon said that last yearss volatility is a warning shot to investors. The chief executive of j. P. Morgan chase said that the next financial crisis could be exacerbated by the shortage of the security. South Korea Central Bank held its key Interest Rate at an alltime low of 1. 75 . They are likely to cut rates three times as information rose as inflation rose. You can find more on that story at bloomberg. Com. Caroline you can join in the conversation with us on twitter. Let us know do you like avocados . Mark coming up, yesterdays fed minutes showed officials divided union over a rate hike, but there was a debate about we will take a close look at the timeline for a rate rise, right after the break. Mark welcome back. That minutes Show Division in the ranks over a rate rise. Lets break it down. There is a count that wants to go in june and another that wants to go later. There is a third that wants to go in 2016. Which camp willare u. N. And which will prevail . Are you in and which will prevail . Lets look at what is going on we have a very strong labor market up until the last payroll report. We had a pretty weak growth picture and we got very low inflation. A lot of that the reason for the low inflation is because of low oil prices. The labor market once you take out this recent months is sending a signal that it is time to rise at an accelerated pace. If that doesnt want to be caught behind the curve with Interest Rates extremely low, and underlying wage pressures w rising. Caroline are you agreeing with the Federal Reserve . It seems like most of the members the natural rate of unemployment is lower than expected. Will that be about the level we will hit before we start to see a rise . That sounds about right. I am hesitating because we have seen this in the bank of england, but little banks tend to move what is regarded as the natural rate of unemployment to help you get closer to it. Roundabout that point, we ought to be seeing wages start to accelerate. So far, age behavior has been cash and given the backdrop of no headline inflation, it suggests there is no reason for entitling just yet. Mark every start of the day, sarah comes on u. K. Monetary policy. 73rd consecutive month, u. K. Interest rates are unchanged at a record low and the Prime Minister has achieved unchanged Interest Rates. It is a lovely stat. Who would have guessed in march two 2009, the last move how long before we start to see a moving right . Again there are a lot of similarities between the bank of england situation and the fed situation. Here in the u k, we have seen a steady decline in unemployment, wage behavior is still subdued. But we have quite strong gdp growth. Our own view is that the bank of england will move soon after the fed and the markets the view as they can stay on hold until next year. They have sent very mixed signals. The bank of england is taking a mediumterm view where is it going to be in a couple years time . By the Fourth Quarter, if it will continue to count it is likely that wages will be rising. The economy is still doing reasonably well will the bank of england at that point be happy with Interest Rates . We think not. Caroline you are a little bit ahead of the curve when it comes to rate rises. What about the election . There is an air of such unconsidered possibility. What do you believe will be the outcome . It is a tough one. Central bankers like to distance themselves from politics but you absolutely cant. Certainly the opinion polls are suggesting that we will have a Hung Parliament, most likely a minority government that will rely on a smarter pot a Smaller Party to push through the policies they want. A potential risk of a second election later in the year. The Largest Party just doesnt get enough i think it is certainly a risk we need to be aware of. The polls at the moment show both major parties falling well short of the 326 seats they would need to hold the effective majority. It is going to be we will be watching the opinion polls closely, but there is a high chance of growing uncertainty. Mark increase, it is payday for the imf, one hopes. The next deadline to strike a deal with its creditors and there is another deadline at the end of june. There are all sorts of deadlines do you think it will reach each one . A history of negotiations between greece and its euro area creditors has been one of growing to the brink. Of going to the brink. That is the deadline that we have sent for reforms, detailed reforms to be agreed between the two partners. There is going to be a need for new finance, additional finance relief of the bailout that are pending. By the end of june, an agreement on a third bailout. At the moment, both sides do look quite far apart, but we think that enough compromises will be made on both sides for an agreement to come about. It is getting very tough and greeks, domestically, there are political pressures which make it difficult for the Prime Minister to agree to what the eu wants to see. Caroline less than a minute but you are believing that contagion isnt completely halted yet. Portugal could be at risk if we see an unveiling. If we look at what markets are saying at the moment, they are saying there is no contagion risk, because the euro was incredibly low everywhere apart from greece. But if we were to exit, that would be such a shock. Inevitably, the focus would move to other countries in the situation portugal is still struggling with the relatively weak growth. Mark inks a lot. Thanks a lot. Mark you are watching countdown. The bank of england is expected to keep rates unchanged at a record low of. 5 for its 73rd consecutive month. Lets look at the pound against the dollar over the last 12 months and that period. It is down by 11. 45 , falling to an almost fiveyear low. Last year had a peak. It was a six year high for the pound against the dollar, how things have changed. Todays rates announcement means that David Cameron will be the first british Prime Minister since the 1950s to serve a full term in office with no change in the borrowing costs. Rates have been at. 5 since march, 2009 and economists surveyed by bloomberg say they will keep its key rate unchanged until the First Quarter of next year. Investors, meanwhile, are ruling out any increase before the second half of next year according to forward contracts. Written is still far from matching the 12 years of unchanged rates between the outbreak of world war ii and 1951. Back then the rate was at 2 , which was the lowest level since 1897. The current benchmark at. 5 is the lowest since the boe was founded in 1694. Analysts dont expect too Much Movement for the pound against the dollar. They are forecasting 1. 47 for the Second Quarter and for the Third Quarter, and 1. 48 for the Fourth Quarter. A big move today will come from the bank of england, or should i say that they cannot move. No change in rate expected for the 73rd consecutive month. Caroline thank you. Lets have a look at some other top stories. Alibaba pictures added 2. 8 billion to its market cap in one day after the Parent Company said it was considering holding his online movie ticketing business and a movie crowdfunding platform. Jack ma has said he is looking for a partner to acquire more content. Zynga says that the founder will return to the role of ceo. He will replace don metric. In a statement, he said that they had a strong First Quarter and he is confident in the outlook. Eric olsen will be nominated to lead a combined operation as they overcome opposition from shareholders. A person familiar with the matter said that companies have approved his assent. You can find more on that story at bloomberg. Com. Mark lets get out to manus cranny in paris. He is standing by with the president of the institute for new economic thinking. Manus . Manus thanks. Im with robert johnson, the president of imf. Spectacular location. You know george sorrows you know the oecd what is this group . Where did it come from . It is designed to fill the void of the mass deficit of the 2008 crisis. Economics is creating bad maps. And we ran the ship onto the rocks. We have got to redraw the maps in finance and environment. Manus give me a sense you come from a wall street, political land many different hats he wore. You had a conversation with george sorrows. That is where ins came to the four. Inf came to the fore. We have bailout and bonuses and inadequate response. What we need is not so much regulation off afterthefact, we need to restructure the rules of the game. Manus this is part of the reason why we are here we are coming on the greek side. To reassure everyone that the structures will be in place. We are talking about equality and inequality. Is Northern Europe by the creditors of Northern Europe really behaving properly in terms of fairness and equality . They are behaving predictably which is that power will do a power can do. What is failing is the democratic process. As a result, creditors are not failing a market test. The burden is being passed to broader population the middle class and below. It is exacerbating inequality. Manus the reality is then, that we are so laden with debt it has ballooned way beyond where we were in 2012. What is the reality . Is a Debt Forgiveness, extension . Watch in real terms will make a difference . What will make a difference is a knowledge and that greece has gone over the waterfall. They are not in a stable sustainable position. Whether you lower the burden or whether you restructure the principal it is an accounting question. One of the other has to be done. Manus this is a word which comes up time and again trust the periphery of europe is mistrusted by the creditors in the north. Is this where the oecd comes in to get some credibility to what they are trying to do . The oecd tries to be fair referee and at some level, what the north is saying doesnt make sense. At some level, you have to say in the case of greece they didnt pay taxes and they did run up a debt. The greece case is the most difficult one because the responsibility is large. Talking about the northern creditors why were the german banks so enthusiastic about lending degrees . Wire the dutch banks, the scandinavian banks . They dont like these people. That is a bit of a change in their this. They thought this people were doing interesting things and now they pull their money back because they have problems. Manus i would challenge you there and say what was europe doing, letting greece and a number of other countries in the first place . This is a european problem the banks came second. Whether they belong to the currency or not is a good question and i think helmut kohl said, we will take an unfinished system, do migration, and when people saw what they had they said we want out of this. Manus how do we move forward . We will hear a little bit more from thomas later, and he said that we need debt resolution. How does your move forward . Growth is on his knees. Inflation is nonexistent. You cant get your way out of debt in that scenario. How do we move forward . Sovereign debt restructuring is called for and i would prefer sooner rather than later. Manus another restructure . The greeks have a tip of the iceberg they are the manus with all due respect, what makes you even remotely think that creditors of europe can get their heads around that . They dont want to get their heads around it, they want someone else to pay their bill. The solution is tough for them to digest. Manus as you said, the european banks are making hay. The european Banking System is strong but as you said, they are lending with promiscuity. Prior to 2007. Manus lets turn our attention to the rules and regulation. They tell me we are nowhere near the end in terms of litigation. Are the banks in better shape, do you think . Do you think it is better than it was when you found it ins . I would say there is a real problem, which is because we didnt at the time adopt all that we had to do, the public is agitated. The regulators are accused of being captured. Now we have this cat and mouse game which is driving the bankers crazy. They feel like they are being peppered with lawsuits, bleeding hostility. A hangover from 2008. I involved on the World Economic forum. Some ceos have said to me if there is a Cyber Security attack i may go to jail. It is not what we did wrong, it is what we did wrong then and didnt go to jail for. There is a quagmire. Regulation is not working well. The laws and the structures that bring things out of these dark derivative markets are not transparent. Markets work well when they are working hard to make sure they are structured properly. Now the cat is out of the bag and until we get back to a healthy structure and regain the trust you were talking about, we will be stuck in this quagmire. Manus i am chasing him youre going to be in a room with him the greek finance minister. Hes got one of those looking four 450 million euros. What would your conversation be with him . I think the question is is this a patch . Are you getting through, coping with a little bit of money now . What does the endgame look like where is the structure going . If you make this payment, you buy time what are you buying . Are you waiting for the spanish to get more despondent and join you . If you make this payment, do you see a restructuring within greece . Manus i have to hand back do you think the spanish and portuguese yes. They are bearing the weight for the argument they need to pass. Manus thank you. Beautiful garden. Thank you for taking the time to talk to us. Lets keep this going, because you speak truth and honesty. That was one of the more enjoyable conversations i get to have. We have a little bit more from the economist and of course, the bazooka man himself. What does he have to say about the greeks and the ecb . Back to you. Manus thanks a lot. Caroline let us know what you think on twitter. Join in the conversation. We are all staring, a gghast, at chinese shares. Mark there is another big sporting event to take place the masters, first golfing major. Still to come, holding a coalition with legos. No one can say with confidence what will happen. Mark which commodity isnt experiencing in a world of supply gluts one stands out. Vick which is used in steel autoparts in sunscreen in the last three weeks, since zinc touched a a oneyear low, it has risen 8 . That is after sliding 18 . That was last years high. The reason for the rebound, from ireland to africa, lines that have produced the metal for decades are tapped out. There is an they need to replace it. Morgan stanley estimates that by 2017, more than 1. 2 million tons of zinc supply will be taken out of production more than the u. S. Uses in an entire year. Supplies are prompting suppliers to forecast higher prices with 6 interest over the last 12 months in zinc. Zinc is the only gainer of the six main metals on the London Metal Exchange. The London Metal Exchange index which encapsulates all six, has dropped. The bloomberg Commodity Index has slumped by 27 . According to a survey of nine traders and analysts prices will rise as high as 2397 per metric ton by the end of this year from 2148. Goldman forecasted an average of 2850. A word of warning the head of commodity strategies says that slowing demand in china, which has led the decadelong boom for metals like think, threatens to demand. Morgan stanley says that china is still growing and it will be 16. 9 billion tons this year, the most since 2007. Reality check even if prices do carry on rising zinc is still more than 50 below its record of 4550 per metric ton reached on november 8, 2006. Zinc is the commodity that isnt experiencing it. Caroline lets check in on some other top stories. Movies has raised its outlook to positive from stable, keeping it above junk. The Central Bank Governor is putting the right measures in place to adjust inflation and increase investment. The World Bank President is adding down comments that chinas new Development Bank is the end of the u. S. Global economic dominance. He told bloomberg there is a need. The way i see this is that china wants to embrace multilaterals. There are 60 countries that will be part of this new bank and that is a good thing for the world. There is no question that the need for Infrastructure Finance and asia from china to jordan, the needs are huge and there is no way that the world bank or any of the others multilateral institutions can meet that need. Mark less than a month to go until the u. K. Election and no one can say with confidence what will happen. Opinion polls suggest either labor nor the conservatives will be clearly ahead. That is where the really hard work begins. Her majesty the queen has asked me to form a new government. Our country has a Hung Parliament where no party has an overall majority. In 2010, David Cameron it looks like it will be much harder. No one is expected to get an overall majority. You will have the greens the labour party, the conservative party, the u. K. Independence party, the Democratic Unionist Party and the liberal democrat party. All of them want to say in what happens next. The forecasted results look Something Like this. David Camerons Conservative Party is about 270 seats. Labour party is about the same. They all need the support of these two other parties but theres a problem. It is absolutely impossible. We would never do anything with the conservatives. Will have a lot of negotiating to do. They will effectively be supporting labor, but in return for that they will be asking for less austerity and a Nuclear Weapons free scotland. Liberal democrats are going to want to go into a compromise. The greens want an end to austerity so they stick with labor. The irish party sits with David Cameron. It clearly stacks up in ed milibands favor, but that is the liberal democrats. The labour party or conservative party what a dismal choice. They just need to do a little bit better than what many in his party wanted to do. Caroline coming out, we will be looking at our favorite stories on bloomberg, including a new Subscription Service for you tube. Mark hunt for a look at our picks from the bloomberg digital world. Yesterday, what takes place traditionally is a par 3 tournament. Jack nicolaus had a bit of fun. You dont want to win because no winner has ever gone on to win the master. Jack nicholas did a hole in one. Kevin streelman beat him in a playoff. Mcilroy is the favorite. The sixth to win all four majors. Caroline i am looking at google the same way you pay a premium to spotify to avoid adverts, if you are going to you to view may be able to do the same. Millions of videos you could pay a Subscription Service to get rid of the arts. The ads. It is about people paying you to provide them with special videos. Mark countdown continues in the next hour. Caroline chinas stock frenzy sent hong kong soaring. The hang seng up more than 6 . Were live with the latest. Mark greece is due to pay the i. M. F. We go to the capital to bring you exclusive interviews. We were told e. U. Politics could drive greece out of the euro. Looks like pushing greece out. Everybody knows that greece is not going repay for the next 20 years. Caroline we look at whats best for business in the u. K. And europe in the first of three bloomberg special debates. Well discuss the key issues facing the general election. Mark fed policy makers reveal a risk on when to raise rates. We bring you the details of the fomc minutes plus what you need to know ahead of todays bank of england rate decision. Caroline welcome to countdown. Im caroline hyde. Mark im mark barton. Coming up, the 20 billion drug deal. We bring you the latest on the pharma mega m a. Caroline lets head out to hong kong where stocks are surging. Were seeing really big moves in the hong kong market, following on from the rally we have seen in chinese mainland stocks. Exactly. Basically people are speculating that at some point or another, shanghais hang Seng Hong Kong stock also catch up to the shanghai composite. Today another rally for the hang seng. One point in todays trading. It surges 6. 5 . Currently trading up 3. 4 . Investors are thinking that it may catch one the shanghai composite. Of course today falling 1. 3 , but remember in the past three weeks, the shanghai composite closed lower only two times. In the past 12 months, it surged 90 . In the past 14 months it doubled. Mainland investors are now asking are now getting these stocks or buying hong kong stocks through the Hong Kong Shanghai stock connect. We saw yesterday the turnover was at a record especially after mainland authorities made it easier for domestic funds to trade in the hong song shanghai stock connect. Anna . Caroline what is the outlook for this rally . Are we expecting the stocks to surge or is it the hong kong stocks that are going to play catch up . Analysts are saying mainland shares are expected to outperform hong kong stocks because they are more susceptible band they benefit from looser Monetary Policy of course with chinas economy slowing down. Investors are expecting more stimulus to come. They expect chinese stock bs to surge anywhere the next 1224 months. Morgan stanley saying with this gap nair owing between shang ai and hang seng, we are going to see shanghai and hang seng, we are going to see the gap narrow. Who is benefiting from it all . The rich in china just getting richer right now. We are hearing that chinese tycoons have gained almost 50 billion this year. Take for example 10 surged around 10 since tuesday and that gave it its chairman almost 2 billion more. Back to you. Caroline thank you very much. Talking of big moves some breaking news coming from retail. Japanese stock is raising its stock. Mark zpwreast due to make a payment to the i. M. F. Later. Back to the harsh reality of empty coffers for alex tsipras. Marcus good morning. Are we expecting greece to make this payment today . Yes, absolutely. We have had a lot of commentary on defaulting on the i. M. F. Is not a good idea. Smive last on the list. Government officials have repeatedly made it clear this is absolutely a priority that the i. M. F. Will be paid. No ifs about it, this will be paid. Were not expecting any surprises there. Mark how is greece progressing in its ambitions to strike a deal with its creditors by april 24 . This is day that greece is targeted because the next big cash crunch for greece the next big cash payment is at the end of the month. That situation is getting very they are scraping around finding money whenever they can. They need something on april 24 to be able to but the line coming from the creditors is pretty much this is you know, youre deadline that youre imposing but if you want something concrete, you need to speed things up. People are saying that progress is being made. The stuff coming from the creditors is that progress is being made but it is very slow. Mark and tsipras concludes his trip to moscow today. How is his trip being perceived back at home . Tsipras went to moscow. He went and talked about a lot of Energy Issues for example, which are important. There are a lot of economic and cultural ties linking the countries. With the orthodox it is a bit of a side show in the sense that in the sense that you know, what economic benefits might come up, wont really be seen in the long run where there is the a pressing issue. At the same time, though greeks are proud and because of some of those cultural ties generally speaking greece attitude toward russia is more positive than is the case in the rest of europe. Mark marcus thanks for talking to us. Caroline as greece continues to haggle with euro area creditors, finance minister is in paris for the sixth annual conference, the institute of new economic thinking. George soros and a french economist are among those present. Too is manus cranny. He joins us now. You caught up with the head of the oecd. He is always on fire. What was he saying in his message to you yesterday . Manus he was indeed. He arrived at the Institute Last night in the center of paris and the whole conversation was soros debating a new way of thinking. We just heard from the president of inet saying that europe needs to readdress how it looks at debt. One of the subjects, one of the subjects is of course the European Central bank. Last time i caught up with him, he got so animated talking about the bazooka. When it comes to whether it is working, he was very definite. S the working. It is working. I have to say first that mario worked with words and now he is working with money. It worked with the words and when it was time to put the money on the table, he did it and it is working. And you see the markets are reacting very positively. Of course we hope that Interest Rates in europe will remain very low for a very long time because the recovery is still sometime away. Very low Interest Rates are going to help people make investment decisions. We believe that is working. We believe that the very European Form of q. E. Which is what the e. C. B. Is practicing but with the constraints that they are in the european markets is what was required. Big numbers. And for practical purposes open ended. Manus you think it was 1. 1 trillion all the way . It is not a question of what i think. Im convinced there is a very serious commitment to do that. But remember, just like he said whatever it takes, i was there. On the 12th of july just before the olympics opened. The question also is we will continue for as long as is necessary. Therefore, what you is an attentive central bank but again, with a bazooka and using the bazooka. This is more important. Everybody knows they have the bazooka but the question is eventually it has to be fired so that people hear the noise. You know . That helps. Manus of course he comes together with inet here at the oecd. A pretty spectacular building, caroline. The debate, of course well be hearing from the president and deal with the reality which is restructuring debt. I think it might be a little bit of time before they manage that dont you . Caroline . Just a few hours time, bloomberg itself is hosting a big debate about britains role in europe. You spoke to none other than the mr. Pi 401 k e Business Leaders warning about the debate. About the potential disruption for business. Tony blair warning us on the other side that the issue in the u. K. Is how much i suppose how much of a concern it would be for business. I asked pikkety simply is there anybody in europe that cares whether they have this referendum or not . Tongue in cheek, of course. I think many people are a little in case they decide to ok, too bad for them. Manus sort of shrugging his shoulders. Really, your loss. Not ours. Back to you. Caroline manus live in sunbathed paris. Mark it is playing a pivotal role in next months general election. It is a broadcast pant from Bloomberg Politics later this morning. Anna edwards is here with us now. Im about to tweet out. Anna ill tell you about the debate. It takes place at 11 this morning here at bloomberg. We are hosting this debate about the future of the u. K. In europe. The financial lexicon, if you like. It is key to the general election of course because as manus was saying the ren referendum on e. U. Membership if they are in power after may 7. We have many sides of this debate. John mills wants to see a referendum to hear the complicated line on this one. Roland rudd runs a pro e. U. Busy campaign. He has been spelling out one of the difficult campaigns. You dont know what youre comparing. You dont know what a trade deal would look like. It is interesting to see what would be the best situation. Those guys on the panel along with no nor man lamont exchancellor, he has warned that a vote on e. U. Membership could damage domestic growth, interesting considering what is on the agenda elsewhere in the campaign today. We see a member of the Defense Industry on the panel. Caroline talk to us about that campaign. It seems to be about the defense and the attack when it comes to personal viewpoints on ed mill bant. Miliband. Anna the conservatives are going to be talking about defense. Were going to see Michael Fallon the defense secretary talking about the governments commitment. Of course this is topical because they have made the existence ash at fast lane in scotland one of their red line issues. This is an issue they would want to see. They would want to see the program scrapped entirely. That is one of their programs. Both labor and the s p said they dont want a full coalition with the s p but certainly the door is still to some sort of vote by vote agreement. The conservatives are going to take their opportunity to cast their rivals as student protesters almost child like in their politics, some of the comments that were going to see coming from Michael Fallon. He has written in the times and to your point about personal attacks, he has written talking about how ed miliband stap stabbed his own brother in the back to become the leader over the labour party. Fascinating the conservatives are playing this defense card in the runup to the general election when defense had been absent when you consider all of the uncertainties. The thinking up until now had been there were not enough votes in it. It seems like they are going to be talking about it today. Mark on a lighter note giving away our true voting intentions. Anna what does it say about you if you buy avocados and coffee and tea . They put out to research. As long as the tea is in a bag and not loose. They go through people shopping baskets and work out how they are going to vote. Conservatives bought avocados and drink coffee. Labor supporters are likely to prefer loose tea. Of course there is a serious point to all of this. That is because Living Standards, peoples ability to maintain those Living Standards the coves living, all of that is a crucial topic. The amount of money people spend on their weekly shop. We sa have since the last election, a change in the shopping landscape. Up to 67 of us using discounters now. There are recent reports about how demsh the area where you own a house does good things to your properties. Caroline as starbucks used to. Anna were obsessed with shopping. Mark thanks. Dont miss the big live debate. Big names taking place. That panel will be moderated by our very own guy johnson. 1 00 a. M. U. K. Time. Caroline u. S. Federal reserve policy maker over whether they would raise Interest Rates in june. The fomc minutes published on wednesday showed several members argued Lower Oil Prices and a stronger dollar would continue to curb angels will arguing for a rate increase later in year. A jury convicted Dzhokhar Tsarnaev in the boston bombing. Jamie dimon said in a letter to shareholders that the next financial crisis could be exacerbated by a shortage of the security. Mark coming up, we had some mega m a yesterday with Oil Giant Shell weeping in to buy bg group. Well look at what that deal means for the energy sector. That is right after the break. Stay with us. Caroline welcome back. Yesterday we saw megam a in the gas sector. One man who holds bg group is matthew beesly. Great fit you say. Great anesthesiaic fit . Mark it is. They talked about how they were liked in brazil. A good growth asset for bg. They want to increase exposure. Increase the important in a low oil price world. It is very complimentry with bgs greens land down in australia. It boosts their l g. The largest player in the l g market. While today it is going to be difficult to arbitrage that market into exexcess profits from it, the future with oil prices higher, could be a source of growth for that business. Mark as a bg shareholder youre smiling. If you were a shell shareholderer, you are not. A decline since 2008. Earnings per share wont rise until 2017. It relies on a quick rebound of the price of oil to around 90 a barrel. Should there be skepticism among shell shareholderers or not . I think first of all it does cap Dividend Growth for the next couple of years. They are very clear. Paydown debt is going to be above dividend. That is one issue. The other is the price they paid. This deal could like strategicically brilliant if we see the oil price return to what it was. This was a fantastic deal for shell. The oil price is a long way below that now. This wont look like such a Smart Financial deal. That is the day cotmy that shell has dichotomy that shell has for shareholders today. Caroline b. P. Waiting for other m a . They are a little skeptical about the medium term outlook for the oil price. With their issues in russia the fallout, the gulf of mexico, i would be surprised to see b. P. Undertaking a large scale caroline is there a target . It could be exxon. They want to do deals. They talked about doing deals. They have the Balance Sheet to do deals. We look around the rest of the industry, im not sure youre going to see that much m a given the focus on cost cutting. Mark we had a story sorry to spring this on you, matthew. Give me what you can. U. K. Said they found 100 billion of oil it is unclear how much of that can be pumped out of the ground. This is the sort of story that you want published isnt it . It is a high risk, high return business. When you are looking for oil. Trying to find oil in some very Strange Parts of the oil. They have been drilling in the arctic, for example. There is some skepticism about the return on that capital. Shell is buying proven growth. They have done the hard work for them. The nature of some of these is they can search continually for oil and not necessarily find that oil. Caroline it has been great having you on discussing all of the oil and gas intricacies. We wish we could have you on longer. Mark coming up the greek finance minister is in paris on the day of the 450 million euro pame payment is due. We have an exclusive interview from Thomas Piketty who says bruzzles is pushing greece out of the eurozone. Stay tuned. [office phone chatter] [frogs croaking] you know what, let me call you back. What are you doing . [scream] [frogs croaking] [yelling and screaming] its back Xfinity Watchathon week. The biggest week in television history. Its your allaccess bingewatching pass to tvs hottest shows, free with xfinity on demand. Xfinity watchathon week. Now through april 12th. Perfect for people who really love tv. Mark you are watching countdown. Time for your Foreign Exchange scheck on the day. The bank of eng slant expected to keep Interest Rates unchanged for the 73rd month. Lets look at the pound against the dollar. Down 11. 5 . In that period, the sterling has fallen. To an almost fiveyear low of 137. 44. July 2, was an almost sixyear high. How the fortunes of sterling have changed since then. Barring any surprises, David Cameron will be the first british Prime Minister since 1950 to serve a full term in office with no change in borrowing costs. Rates have been at. 5 here since march 2009. Economists think that the b. O. E. Will continue to keep rates unchanged until the Third Quarter of next year. Investors are ruling out any rise before the second half of next year. Britain still far from matching the 12 years of unchanged rates between the outbreak of world war ii in 1939 and 1951. Back then rates were at 2 which at the time matched the lowest since 1897. The current benchmark is the least since the bank of england was founded in 1694. Just on the level of the pound against the sterling. Dont expect Much Movement through the end of this year. They are forecasting a pound dollar rate of 1. 47 for the second and Third Quarter. 1. 48 for the Fourth Quarter versus where it is today. 1. 48. Expect no change from the bank of england today from the 73rd consecutive month. Caroline lets have a quick check on other top stories on bloomberg at this hour. Alibaba pictures added. It was considering fold its online ticketing business. They are looking for partners to acquire more companies. Agreed to nominate eric ol son as they look to overcome opposition for their planned merger. Both boards of both the companies have approved the approvement. And u. K. O. G. An oil and gas firm said it has found 100 billion barrels of oil in the u. K. Now it is unclear whether it refers to reserves or resources. Mark the greek finance minister is in paris on the day a 450 million payment is due to the i. M. F. A economist told bloomberg he sees them trying to force greece out of the euro area. Manus spoke with mr. Piketty. What else did he say . Manus mark, good morning to you. Yeah. Of course this is a celebrity economist. It is quite amazing when you come to paris and through all of the oecb scholars, they have their iphones out. They were fascinated to see piketty. And they were taking pictures of him. I thought it was quite telling. It was almost conspiracylike really. Addressing how economists get from economists to conspiracy theorists. There was a view that maybe greece was being pushed orel bode by a couple of northern creditors. The attitude of a number of people in berlin. It looks like they are pushing greece out. Everybody knows that greece is not going to repay 4 of g. D. P. For the next 20 years. Right now maybe close to zero. Keep that to increase it a little bit. 4 of g. D. P. The country is not going to pay it. We have to find another solution. We all know this. Manus what do the greeks need to do to convince berlin that they can and should remain in the e. U. . They should talkless about just greece and more about the working i think there is no solution for greece without a solution i think we need redemption. Manus you mean Debt Forgiveness all around europe . Then we would have a common interest. We would keep separate accounts as to how much each country has put into it. Manus i thought he was very scathing really of the scenario in europe. If you want the entire discussion we had, go to bloomberg business. His views on the euro and on the grexit. He didnt seem to care too much about a grexit. Mark thank you. Caroline shifting gears a bit. There is a growing phenomenon in the u. K. Called buy to leave. As Foreign Investors power money into residential real estate, many hopes are left empty with owners not bothering to pick up their keys this is due to the unaffordable housing across the country. They are demanding tougher penls. Joining us is ed meade. Great to have you with us today. How worried should we be that these huge coming on to the market, are currently only about 50 occupied. People are not bothering to pick up their keys. Part of the problem is exactly what youre talking about with exchange rates. Central london has become a repository for rich english peoples wealth. Property is an asset which they can use if a balloon goes up. If people are not using them now, they can use them at some point in the future. London is a popular place. We have political stability. A lot of people like investing in london. They feel anybody who makes money in the world seems to want to buy a place in london. There are an awful lot of places coming to the market. 54,000 new units coming to the market along the river. That is an awful lot of units. At the moment there are a few of them that are empty because they are not being bought but you right. There are quite a lot that are being bought and just being put under wraps. Mark will it deter foreign buyers . Will it deter london buyers if they are taxed or however you want to view it, penalized for leaving their houses empty . I think Political Uncertainty has caused a lot of problems. Personally i think there should be some sanction for people who dont use their properties at all. I see no problem with people buying property to let it out. That is fine. It gets used and serves a purpose. I think there should be some sanction against people who buy properties and dont do anything at all. Mark buy to leave. Buy to leave. People will get clever. It is very difficult to police. I think so there is an awful lott negativity. I think we should be grateful that people want to come and envest in london. With all of these properties being built, there are people that want to buy these properties. We should be grateful that they are instead of nobody wants to buy them. Sterling has been weak. Buy to let mortgages are very, very cheap at the moment. Even though some of these places that they are buying are not exactly cheap. They seem to be being bought and we should be grateful for that. I would like to see them in better use. Caroline talk to us about the Property Market in general. Were in this slight political where are people looking to buy . What are the hottest areas to invest . Where would i really want to put my money to work . It is interesting. We run an merging prime index. Places are people are wanting to invest is outside prime Central London. It has been flat for the last year year and a half ahead of all of this Political Uncertainty. Caroline prime being chelsea and westminster. Wealthy domestic buyers dont seem to be able to afford to live there. People who want to rent these days seem to prefer to live in places where their mates live. A lot of wealthy people live in these areas. Enjoyed in 2013 an enormous lead. It has now flattened out. That is flattening out. But we are finding that investors in particular who are looking to buy, buy to let, are finding that the areas around the middle around prime Central London these areas that are they are enjoying a good rental growth and reasonable Capital Growth which of course is the vision that most people have if they go to buy to let. It is not about getting a rental income. It is about total returns. That seems to be merging rather than prime central mark we could have a match in tax depending on the outcome of the election. Would that deter foreign buyers . It already is. The market is other 2 Million Pounds over 80 down from where it was a year ago. Clearly most people are sitting on their hands waiting to see what is going to happen. Which of course is a big problem. London is a unique market. It is pulled from the top up. People in london dont move into chelsea because they need to. They move baud because they wanted to. That move of people, that those movements of oil that the london market if you cut off the top end of the market, it has a really serious trickle down effect further down. It is all very well for people to think it doesnt affect them, only people buying 3 million 4 Million Pound houses but in london, it has an i effect all way down. People stop moving where they are, it drives supplies down. Caroline thank you so much. Great to have you on. Please join us again. Mark up next, commodity experiencing a glut. That is next after the break. Mark commodity isnt experiencing a glut in the world of supply gluts one commodity stand apart. Zinc. Yes, the metal used in auto parts, plumbing fixtures and sunscreen. In the last three weeks, it touched an almost oneyear low in march. It has risen by 8 to 21. 48 a metric ton after sliding 18 . The reason for the rebound is from africa to ireland mines that produce the metal for decades are now tap out and there is no big supply to replace it. Morgan stanley estimates by 2017, more than 1. 2 million metric understand the of annual mined supply will be taken out of production. That matters because that is more than the u. S. Uses in an entire year. And tighter supplies are prompting banks like b. N. P. Paribas, goldman sachs, to forecast higher prices on top of the 6 increase in zinc in the last year, which made zinc the only gainer among the six main metals on the London Metal Exchange. It encapsulates all six is down by 9 over the last year. The bloomberg Commodity Index has slid by 27 . According to a Bloomberg Survey of nine traders and analysts, prices will rise as high as 2,397 dollars a metric ton by the end of this year from 2,148 now. Goldman forecasts 2,500 in 12 months. B. N. P. Paribas predicts an average of 2850 a metric ton in 2016. Just a little reality check, if prizes carry on rising zinc is still more than 50 below its record of 4,515 a metric ton reached on november 9 2006. There you have it. Zinc, the commodity which isnt experiencing a glut. Caroline a look at m a now. It is a deal that would shake up the pharmacy industry. It would be the biggest purchase ever by mylan. Manuel, why . Why are we seeing this deal now in particular . Remember the tax last year . Caroline all the rage. We have two inverts companies. Mylan last year made a purchase in the netherlands. The headquarters in dublin. The generic makers were seeking to combine. For mylan, it is interesting because they could be a target themselves. It is very interesting. Could be the defensive. Thats what some analysts and investors are interpreting. They have been very public about their intentions to acquire businesses. Caroline why are we seeing such a continuation of pharmaceuticals deals . We talked about oil and gas. What is it about pharmaceuticals that this trend will continue . The flavor of the month or the flavor of the last 12 months, since last year. We have a bunch of Big Pharmaceutical Companies that are facing a lot of patent expirations. They are forced to get acquisitions to bolster their pipelines. That is a Way Acquisitions is are are a fast way to diversify their portfolio. I think we are seeing these fantastic trends that have been prevailing for the past 12 months and i think to continue. Mark good to see you. Were Just Moments Away from the market open. Lets press ahead. Alastair joins us. Market strategist at i. G. Group. Hi alastair. M a certainly dominated yesterday. Have you got your head around the shell b. P. Deal. Some shareholders at shell dont like it. They say it is too expensive. What is going to happen to the dividend . Which side do you rest on . Good morning, mark. I think this is pretty much a done deal. The management has obviously been working behind the scenes on this. If relook back at some of the Board Members and the team that he brought with him, the corporate experience that they had is certainly painted a clearer picture as to what bg group were doing. The markets felt generically was undervalued. I guess the m a activity that were seeing here is no real surprise. Six, seven, eight years worth of a lack of cash going towards the r d and a lot of these companies are having to backtrack on that and look at the mergers and acquisitions to premenish their stock. Caroline we have been talking about oil and gas. We have a pharmaceuticals deal today. Maybe that packages company could be snapped up. What is it has the driving this m a . Too much cash sitting in companies pockets and it is too easy to access debt now . That is very much it. The companies have battened down the hatches for a long period of time. They didnt replenish their base of stock whether that be a Pharmaceutical Company and drugs. They let thpatents come ton end. They need to do something about that to replenish their sales base. They need to do the same thing with oil and mining companies. It will feed on itself. It will be a snowball effect. When you think about the spending power of the u. S. Dollar as well it will be interesting to see how much of a shopping spree we see from the u. S. Moving over to europe, throw into the equation the fact that we have some safety net below european eck twin cities the eurozone e. C. B. s quantitative easing scheme as well, it does make for a pretty attractive venue to look at acquisitions. Mark the big economic event of the last 12 hours or so would be the would be the fed minutes. Some go for june, some for later this year. Some for next year for the first rate hike. What does this tell us about when you think the fed will pull the trigger . The only clear signal we got from the minutes last night was the fact that there is not a unified opinion as far as the fom scrnch concerned. I still think well see Interest Rates this year, if we see the unemployment figures start to fall away, that might well change. I think it is certainly excluding the poket of rate hike being earlier in the year. That certainly is off the table i think. But i think as far as the volatility is concerned, were seeing the ability of people to interpret what they feel, whether they are doves or hawks. Caroline looking at the data in the u. S. , lets get to earnings. Setting the bowled r rolling when it comes to earnings this season. What did you take away, where do you see the trends lying for u. S. . Quickly looking at alcoa, their outlook for sales in the year ahead was actually a little bit stronger. Once again, were seeing costs being driven down. It is a nice template to throw for the other u. S. Companies when they report their First Quarter figures. It is also worth looking back a month or so ago when we saw nike post their figures. Saying how much the strong u. S. Dollar was harm them. Having sifted through alcoas comments i didnt see anything about the u. S. Dollar harming them. Mark not long before the election now. How are you feeling investors are feeling themselves ahead of the election . Stocks keep edging higher both in europe and the u. K. European stocks touched a record yesterday. Finished at a 2,000 high. We saw the ftse fall but they are near alltime highs. Can this continue or will preelection jitters kick in soon . At the moment the most likely outcome is going to be a labour minority government which doesnt bode well for stability as far as the country is concerned and as far as our efforts rto conquer austerity are concerned. What is going on with oil prices, the m a activity, that sort of thing rather than being worried too much about the election. As we get closer i think the focus will shift. Not the ftse 100. Maybe the ftse 250. For the time being, were not getting too nervous about this election. I think maybe a week or two down the road, it might be a different picture. Mark market strath strategist at i. G. Group. Caroline well go live to paris. Greeces finance minister continues his talks. We spoke to economist piketty. Are they pushing greece out of the eurozone . Stay tuned. On the move up next. Good morning. Welcome. Where bloombergs European Headquarters right here in this city. We hit the all time high yesterday and we came back a little bit. It is a little bit higher with ftse 100 futures. 27 points higher. I am looking at futures and i have a busy morning ahead. The stock market mania. It is a sevenyear high after the pop and the imf payback. The International Monetary fund has no agreement with creditors inside. Federal confusion shows it later this year. Are you confused . I am confused. The futures will stay a little bit higher. For europe, lets go straight to the open. Looking a little rosie and willie and we are seeing these china stocks higher and record amounts of money being put in. Look at europe up and france by. 3 . A little bit of