Transcripts For BLOOMBERG Countdown 20151002

Welcome, youre watching countdown. Chinese authorities have stepped up targeted stimulus to shore up growth in the worlds second biggest economy. Kong. Joins us from hong tentative, small steps the chinese are taking this morning to shore up little of the chinese economy, but it could paint a picture, couldnt it . We have a hong kong economy catching up from yesterday. Straight out we saw the Hong Kong Market, that rise really significant compared compared to what we have seen in the european and u. S. Sessions on thursday. Look at that, the Hong Kong Market is up 2. 7 . Hadfirst to report there been stimulus measures coming through from the chinese government, also as you mentioned, playing catch up to that big rally we had in the region yesterday when hong kong was closed. You can see galaxy is leading. Casino stocks are looking strong today. There is weakness for the former export company. Elsewhere we are seeing solid gain. That has helped to be benchmark today. Helps the benchmark today. Elsewhere, japan is coming off that good game yesterday. Australia is the worst performer down by 1. 1 . I want to show you some other stocks. Sawe was that big pickup we in u. S. Auto sales, the fastest sales growth in a decade. We are seeing japanese auto players looking good. Toyota is a strong performer. Look at the casino stocks in hong kong, leading those gains, galaxy is up by over 11 . Gaming and macau is actually down for 16 consecutive months. Anna lets take a moment to have a look at what is happening in commodities. There has been a big story. Here is the oil chart, the wti oil chart. We had interesting volatility in yesterdays session. I want to point to this area here where we have not moved all of that far from 45 and 50. Generally speaking, fairly range bound for the oil price. Jim rogers was picking up on this, the famous analyst, talking about how oil is holding at 45 and managing to ignore bad news. We had bad news in terms of oil price surrounding the iranian conservation to Global Energy markets in september. We continue to see stockpiles increasing in the u. S. Jim rogers sees this as a potential sign we could move higher. That takes us on to conversation we will have about commodities later. We will be joined by a an Australian Government minister. He is the minister for commodities, josh frydman berg will be joining us in about 40 minutes. We will discuss whether that economy sees itself as a energy superpower. Later today we will get to u. S. Jobs data for september, always eagerly awaited. This years this months numbers will be scoured. Critic an increase in 2001000 nonfarm payrolls 2001000 nonfarm payrolls. That seems to be consensus number the consensus number. Things theyreo looking for, the effects of emerging market turmoil on the of thend the effects slack that has been taken up on wages. On the first bit, it is difficult to tell what is going on. You know that the pace of hiring in the u. S. Has slowed and they asked six months, how you disentangle . Do you disentangle . ,ou could look at manufacturing less and services, in regards to the slack taken up, the consensus is the wage growth could probably have an effect. Anna this is the september number, the august number, not quite in the rearview mirror. The august number does get advice at this point. We will watch that. Jamie u. S. Economists are telling us that there tends to be less wrong in september than other months. Think watching august will be important. Anna what does this mean for london . Jamie i think it means different things. What matters more than what the fed actually does is how it doesnt does it. Fed surprises anyone, that could lead to tightening conditions in europe. Rather than the Exchange Rate effect being a good thing, you get anna bottom markets are not pricing despite the fact that we hear this message from officials saying that december is on the cards for a rate hike, it is not about bond markets receiving. Jamie i think it will be heading to know surprises. Anna jamie murray, chief economist at bloomberg intelligence. Lets go to our twitter question of the day. What is most important for you for todays job number . Are you watching september or august . You can get in touch with me on twitter. Here is a reminder of all of the jobs data out. We get spanish unemployment at 9 00, madrid time. In the United States, nonfarm payrolls, that and the Unemployment Rate with that at 1 30 in the afternoon. Plenty to watch for in terms of the job story on both sides of the atlantic. Us cranny sat down with a with the ceo, frederick of you. He gave his view on what the world centralbank might do next. Manus started the discussion on the issue on the forefront of our minds, should we fear a china sold slowdown . I think there is an overreaction for something that will not be a surprise. Having traveled to china quite often, we could have seen the first sign of a slowdown, at the same time, i think it is an overreaction when people think it will turn into a cow. We all know about the need to change towards a more consumer driven model, i think china can address that, it might take some time. We might see a lower growth than expected, maybe 56 in the next three years. Manus we have had this week a glencore moment. That blowup in the equity market. It had global impacts in terms of commodities. Quee we had a lehmanes moment in terms of commodities . I dont think so. I do not think you see the same thing in the commodity sector. Again, i think it might be a longerterm. The question is how long will it last . What predicted to decrease, who can predict the increase we might see. In mind iso we have that europe and the u. S. Will do well in 2016. I think there is not a system. Manus there is this view in europe, the banks like yours have built big business on commodity business, are you concerned from a banking perspective that the commodity route will begin to have a kind of impact in terms of numbers for the banks in europe . I dont think so. As bankers we have the to think 10 years ahead. We have to build businesses that will have added value. The commodity sector will remain in the 10 year. Expertise inan this sector. Second, the measure recipe for success Going Forward in this volatile world where prices can happen, itrisis can is the concentration of risk. The management of the concentration of risk. You need a balanced portfolio. You need to avoid and over concentration in areas. Anna that was the ceo frederick oudea, speaking to manus cranny. We will bring you plenty more from that conversation throughout the morning. Leaders meetropean in paris today, they are supposed to talk about ukraine, in the week that russia launched airstrikes in syria, at least discussions may dominate the discussion. Anna welcome back. Here are the stories you need to know. Investors will scrutinize u. S. Jobs data due later today for evidence that the World Biggest economy is ready for higher Interest Rates. Bloomberg survey of more than 90 economist points to an increase 2001000 201,00 0. Hong kong stocks rebounded this morning after the biggest quarterly loss in four years. The gains led by carmakers and investors came as china stepped up. Stocks in casino operations also searched after reports the government may unveil measures to support the Tourism Industry in macau. Nine people are reported killed in a mass shooting in oregon. Police say the gunman was 26 and was killed in a shootout. President obama somehow this is become routine has become routine. The reporting is routine. Podiumonse here at this ends up being routine. The conversation in the weath of it, it is have become numb to this. This afterbout columbine, blacksburg, tucson, iton, aurora, charleston cannot be this easy for someone who wants to inflict harm on other people to get his or her hands of a gun. On a gun. In other news, the European Central Bank President says that growth is returning to europe. He accepted a Global Citizen award from the Atlantic Council in new york. He also made it clear that he believes fed integration in the eu is the way forward. The progress achieved over the past three years to stabilize and strengthen the area is real. Growth is returning. We will not rest until our Monetary Union is complete. Many argue that our societies are not homogeneous enough to operate as a union. Others would argue that further integration is the only necessary role to extract rule to extract all of the power of the economies of scale that our union brings. You would not be surprised to know that i am firmly in this second camp. Anna weve also heard from one of europes most influential business leaders, the ceo , inerick Frederic Oudea an exclusive interview, they discuss what is next. Of thatnot a big fan policy. I think they are useful as a ,ooster, but in the longterm they create distortions in asset prices. If you have to much money chasing too little assets. I think the fed will probably raise rates. We tend to think so, yes, in december. The ecb and the Japanese Central bank in our mind might pursue a policy, probably in my 16 which means that money will be available. Particularly regarding the European Asset class in 2016, we have a scenario of progressive economy in the eurozone. The low Commodity Prices not that bad. I think this category of assets might be considered not that expensive in this world of ample equity. Liquidity. Manus you think they will extend liquidity . Yes. Anna lets talk about global rate environment. Us. Choices joins mario draghi spoke last night, not talking policy, we are talking about the increased need for integration. We are talking about achievements in growth, the eurozone has not treated that much to the Global Growth agenda for seven or eight years. How are things changing . The eurozone is currently in a sweet spot as far as the economy is concerned. , ontive external factors the internal side, some of the policy measures that have been taken, particularly in economies like spain and ireland some of these are coming together and generating eurozone gdp of up. 5 . That is stronger than it has been in years. HeardFrederic Oudea we referring to that and how it is a positive. It seems to be taking its time to deliver. If you look at the boost to french household consumption, it grew by. 6 . That is not because french complaint are more competitive, it is because consumers have more money in their pockets. You saw commodity rices fell for the second half of last year. They have been falling over the summer as well. The last quarter of this year you should see a boost for eurozone consumers. Anna we are seeing it. What about the weakness in the euro, is that all its cracked up to be . Of the euro has depreciated a little. The safe haven flows from those emerging markets. We are still 10 15 weaker than a year ago. It is positive in particular for countries that are less competitive, france and italy, are cheap amongst those. Countries like ireland and spain are doing pretty well. The euro being weak or is a positive for the eurozone as a whole. Anna lets talk about the u. S. , the jobs report is coming out. You are expecting a rise of 200,000. Yes. I think the interesting thing about august is, the august initial estimate for payroll growth in the u. S. Has been revised in the last decade, i would be quite surprised if it was not revised. It is substantially weaker than the first half of the year. Jobs growth is probably weaker than the first half of this year. Anna what about the wages . . We think that might strengthen in september. 2. 4 in august, people were getting excited about that. Actually, historically that is weak. With probably in line growth in the u. S. That might pick up. Particularly if you look at the hours rising in august. Employees are working more overtime, eventually they will ask fored they will higher wages. This way into conversations for the fed in october and december . It is not seem as if the markets are prepared for a rate hike, despite the fact that we hear so many fed officials talking about that. I think it comes down to the crux about the fed wanting to normalize policy before it really has to. A lot of the measures of inflation in the u. S. Is weak. The fed has made a point repeatedly, the policy is abnormally easy at the moment. It wants to start that cycle before it is necessary. We think that is why december remains the time it will start doing that. How wage growth behaves in the coming months will determine whether or not it is two or three hikes next year. Anna if that is what the fed once to do, how will they get the market on it died its side. And think the fed reaction their statements to wage releases like the one today, particularly in the october meeting will be key in that respect. Central Bank Governors put a lot of emphasis on the medication strategies. That will be emphasis on the strategies that will be because in october. We could get some strong guidance, depending on the data. Anna what about the china story . Mario draghi talks a theut the flow of negative impact the chinese slowdown could have on the eurozone. Things thatf the stay there last month wasnt it . Are we now we know that things are slowing in china. From our perspective what is happening in china over the last six months is more a sense of reality about the new normal for china. ,t is a slower pace of growth because you cannot sustain that level of real estate investment. What is good for the eurozone is that the u. S. And u. K. Consumers are starting to really take off. That is good for eurozone exports. Even though germany has expanded presence in china, quite a lot over the last few years, the eurozone as a whole still exports more to advanced economy trading partners. Even though china slowing is a problem, the fact that there is going to demand any advanced economies should take up slack. Anna thank you for joining us. Adviser at ernst young. European leaders met in paris today to discuss the situation ukraine with in russia launching airstrikes in syria this week, could tensions between putin and the west dominate the agenda . Caroline is live. Caroline vladimir putin, the russian president will definitely try to take the focus syriarom ukraine and put on the top of the agenda for this meeting taking place today in paris. Vladimir putin wants to make and get out of the political isolation he has been under since the ukraine crisis last year and try to be at the center of any kind of sentiment in syria that would possibly include sri lashawn and his rate his regime. French along with the u. S. Have been skeptical about the actual targets of russian pruden whether Vladimir Putins intentions might be the Islamic State or assads groups. Will meet with chancellor merkel before the fourway meeting. That will give a chance for the president and merkel to asked questions about his real intentions in syria. He might have more support from the french government than from germany at the u. N. General assembly on monday, the president said that it might actually be possible, but under a clear basis that would not include assad. Countdown up on we will talk about anderson. They are getting tough on apple and google, amazon. eeeeohmumohweh hush my darling. dont fear my darling. the lion sleeps tonight. hush my darling. man snoring dont fear my darling. the lion sleeps tonight. woman snoring take the roar out of snore. Yet another innovation only at a sleep number store. Anna welcome back you are watching countdown. Here are the stories you need to know. Investors will scrutinize it u. S. Jobs data today looking for evidence the worlds biggest economy is ready for Interest Rate hikes this year. Economist predicts an increase in nonfarm payrolls. They held off on raising rates for the First Time Since 2006 citing weaker then hope for inflation and risk to Global Growth emanating from china. Amazon says they plan to ban the sale of media streaming devices from apple and google till the end of the month. They said they are not compatible with their own streaming service. One analyst says that less than 20 of amazon customers are prime numbers. Nine people are now reported to have been killed and a mass shooting at a Community College in order. Police say the gunman, aged 26 was killed in a shootout. Offered hisama condolences, and lamented his countrys inability to stop the shootings. President obama somehow this has become routine. The reporting is routine, my response here at this podium ins. Being retained ends up the conversation in the aftermath, we have become numb. We talked about this after columbine, newtown, aurora, it cannot be this easy for somebody who wants to harm on other people to get his or her hands on a gun. On what we get more can expect from todays jobs has thephil mattingly details has the details. Just two weeks after fed policymakers decided to leave Interest Rates at near zero, the u. S. Government will release their september jobs report data. The report may show payrolls climbing by about 200,000, according to economist surveyed by bloomberg. Likelymployment rate is to hold at 5. 1 , the lowest since april 2008, according to the survey. The august report contained mixed data. It included a gain of 173,000 jobs, which missed expectations, but also showed a drop in the Unemployment Rate to place it within the fed definition of who implement. Fed policymakers declined to raise rates citing global and economic headwinds, even in the face of the approved labor market. Janet yellen has maintained her stance that a rate increase is likely in 2015. There is a 43 chance that the fed will move by december, that is according to futures data compiled by bloomberg, a factor sure to play a role on when or going toecision is raise rates, fridays jobs report. Anna joining us now, our guest host for the next hour, the managing director. Great to see you. What are you expecting . How crucial will this be in december . Of course the jobs report is all about the Market Reaction and the feds assessment of the health of the economy as well as their ability to resist external headwinds with Exchange Rate turmoil we have seen over the last quarter. The labor market plays a key role in reaching the gap that the fed faces between on the one hand, moving away from extreme accommodation, clearly not needed for the string that the u. S. Economy today. On the other hand, moving towards a rate hike which is something that the fed would enable was unable to find the confidence to do a few weeks ago. What we should look should look for, how does the bond market react . Does that tell us about market rate . That is a missing part of the puzzle right now. Li na absolutely. Signaled the september. The bar of strengthening the health of the labor market has been raise higher on the basis of two things, first the fed needs to close the link between the labor of port in terms of growth inflation dynamics and the u. S. Inflation outlook. The second thing is the fed has to rely on even greater expected strength in the u. S. Labor market in terms of reflation area. Reflation Exchange Rate commodity export price and financial turmoil. Today we have three parts of the report, the cyclical demand in theh, particularly context of last month revisions. Anna last month was week. The market discounted the fact that this figure would be revised. Today we get proof. The unemployment gap the janetoyment rate, what yellen did a few weeks ago was to qualify that this is not the much about Unemployment Rate, but how that translates into inflation pressures. Anna they are linked. Thank you. Amazon is banning media streaming devices from apple and google that are not compatible. It is the latest move as the world tech giants tempt attempt to dominate the world anyway they consume media. It has used this kind of script before. If youre not going to work with amazon fire tv, youre out. So says amazon. Caroline goodbye apple, goodbye google. Watching ann to be apple tv, if you want to Google Chrome cast, you better get in and fast. By october 29, all of the inventory on amazon will be stopped from selling. Very immediate action being taken by amazon. If perhaps you wanted to stream by competitors, you wanted to ,ook at the xbox or playstation or roku, youre fine, that is compatible. Only if you are apple or google are you going to be hit. The tactic is interesting, who will it hurt . It will hurt google. They generally rely on this outsourcing. Apple already has its own stores. Google does depend on the life of amazon. It also depends on competitors. Amazon will not hurt itself losing sales to best buy, other competitors. These are some of the bestselling streaming products on the market. They have used this tactic before. They have used this heavyhanded this. Going back to the books play, back to Hachette Books, remember when they were arguing over prices . We suddenly saw that the new orders the preorders of hash Hachette Books were unable to be backed by amazon. They have used this tactic, many book writers of the time said this was anticompetitive. This move against apple and google may not be deemed antitrust they might not see it in violation as competitive instinct because there are options for apple and google elsewhere. Nevertheless, this really does highlight the importance to amazon, and the prevalence of streaming. Already you have amazon, the number three player in the u. S. , according to park associates. They are the number three player when it comes to streaming. Dominatedgle, roku, the space, they have 86 of the string products. Why is amazon doing this . Owns not all about their content, it is not all about streaming, they want to in that ecosystem. They want you in that ecosystem. It gets you in he ecosystem, anna thank you. Coming up, and interview you do not want to miss. The resources, the commodity story so key to so many conversations where having here. We will speak to australias minister to resources and energy about the current economy and how his country is coping with a slowing china. Anna welcome back, you are watching countdown. Here are the stories you need to know this morning. Investors will scrutinize u. S. Jobs data, due later today for evidence that the worlds biggest economy is ready for higher Interest Rates. Bloombergs survey of over 90 economists predict an increase in 200,000 nonfarm payrolls. Last month, policymakers hold off on raising rights rates citing weaker inflation. Hong kong stocks rebounded this morning after the biggest quarterly loss in four years. The gains, led by carmakers and developers came when china stepped up support for its economy. Casino operators also surged after a report that the government may unveil measures to support tourism in macau. Sources say that jpmorgan is set to pay a most one third of a settlement to resolve accusations that a dozen big banks conspired to limit competition in the credit default swap market. Jpmorgan is paying 595 million. Ceo has had a hard week, no chief is immune to the threat of crisis. In our exclusive interview with Frederic Oudea come my colleague, manus cranny asked him what advice he would offer his counterparts. If you have the rtunity to speak to him first of all, keep your composure. The perception of the market is totally distance from reality. Focus on the communication, address market concerns. In 2011 we acted quickly to reduce the balance sheet, to communicate on false perception. Im sure even then i said we would work on the the reduction imebt, as long as sure he has a Good Business he will be up to solve the crisis. Lets continue the commodity conversation, and look at the coal industry. Tim coulter joins us from the Bloomberg Business site and lena is still with us. Have a story over the coaldity sector, about half of the words, world coal is not profitable. Tim yes, glencore is the worlds biggest exporter of coal. It is not look like it will get better anytime soon. The forecast is the next 612 months will be as bad or worse. It is remarkable to see, the way the industry seems to be disappearing before our eyes. His Company Peabody energy, the biggest coal producer was down 85 . Anna we have talked about the troubles for glencore, do you see any rest bite despite . Absolutely. The risk is that a greater negative feedback loops. The combination of more volatile equity markets what is happening in china will be pushed up to equity ratios. It looks riskier. The result in more volatility. None of this is helped by the fact that this stops the fed in the tracks last month. What is the fear . If conditions remain this income, we will see credit downgrades. Glencore is one of the biggest. The potential for fallout here is probably not fully realized. When you look at Commodity Prices when we speak to investors, many feel that fundamentally they are not cheap enough. Anna that is interesting, we had a conversation around the desk about whether or not this is a lehman moment. We have heard people referencing that. You are suggesting we do not know yet. Precisely. Tim think about the counterparties involved if glencore were to fall. Things like shell, bp, these are giants. The commodity market is nowhere as near as Financial Markets. Could they be as significant . I am hoping it is not a lehman moment. View, big macro point of the commodity Market Industry is oversupply, their success capacity, there will be some rerationalization. We do want it to happen and it orderly way in a orderly way. Perhaps we will get a confirmation from the u. S. Today about things developing differently. Thankfully we are talking about coal, we are not talking about securities. Actually anna thankfully. I was talking about this at the dean rogers has been talking about the lack of reaction we are seeing in oil prices. Some of the bad news thrown at it in the last few weeks, he is saying that as a positive. Perhaps even suggesting we could is maybe the application could this be a floor in oil prices . Does that will be key for where we go with commodities . We have been seeing a number of copper miners going back on production. With commodities there is the fundamental part, the financial risk sentiment, and then evaluation. The fact that it is more resilient suggests that from risk sentiment it is extreme. Also from an evaluation perspective, given that we have had a bearish a barrage of bad news. We are seeing some expectation of Global Demand for conditions. We also want evidence that developed economies are holding up in the face of turmoil. We are seeing that china is managing to contain it slowdown. Anna lets carry on this commodity conversation. Lets talk about the commodity market turmoil and how it is affecting us trillion. Australianed by the minister for resources and energy. He joins us on the phone now from turkey. Great to have you, thank you for joining us. You have become australias resources minister in a past few weeks at a time of huge volatility with commodity. What do you make of the turmoil . Certainly there is a lot of volatility in the International Market, that has been a function of changes on the supply and demand side. What has been interesting is that the u. S. Has overtaken saudi arabia is the Worlds Largest producer of oil and gas. That is also significant. Iran will soon have sections lifted, that will be another factor coming into the energy market. I look at the fundamentals of energy, i still think it is positive. Global Energy Demand is expected to increase by the iea by one third by 2040. That will require tens of trillions of dollars worth of infrastructure investment. Australia is very innovative and experienced in the resource of space. We have a large natural endowment of resources we are the second largest exporter of coal in the world. By 2020 we will be the largest exporter. Leverage theseto conditions to increase the emphasis on technology and to work on new investment in the country. And a grout we have been having a conversation around the desk, apparently movies things that half of the world Coal Production is unprofitable right now. What does the slowdown in china mean to you . That is the extent of the impact on the coal industry generally, what about the impact on your economy . Josh it is helping to fuel those Electricity Generating coal plants in china with high efficiency alone missions. Low emissions. We have coal exporters being used in plants. You are right, there has been a slowdown in International Prices and fertility coming and particularly coming out of china, that will have effects on australia in terms of investment that may be made in the coming time. It is still an attractive proposition in the energy space. Global demand will increase exponentially overtime. Anna your government is trying to rein in a budget deficit to reach, your forecast to reach 35 us billion dollars in 2015 fiscal year. Tax receipts are coming under pressure, will it be difficult to reach this target . Josh we will have more to say about that and we update the budget at the end of the year. Strong. Urces are wealths a great deal of creation, employment, and import, export income. Are in the third stage in the resources they. Space. We had a pricing balloon that reflected the trouble in china. Stage in the investment we have invested 400 billion in infrastructure in 2014. In a Production Phase where volumes have increased significantly. For example, our iron ore exports are three times what they were. Our coal exports are twice what they were. It is a transition that is taking place in the us trillion space. In the australian space. As far as the budget, i am upbeat about the impact that it will have on our bottomline. Anna you must have been watching with interest, revisiting the sector in a country so exposed to mining. You mustve been watching what is happening with glencore. What is your read of that situation . Josh market deliberation that will take place between investors and governments have to be careful not to speculate what may or may not be an investors decision. With glencore, they have a degree of highquality assets and australia. They are a significant player in our resource of space. As far as International Market stability is concerned, hopefully we will see that stability come back in Companies Like glencore. Side,briefly on the lng do you expect the momentum kind the project in australia is reduced because of the weakness in oil price . It has been the subject of a major investment in our country over recent years. We are now moving to the production. Those investments have been made. A lot of contracts have been signed. As you know, gases are playing a form of energy. Demands will continue to increase in the coming weeks, rigidly from developing nations particularly from developing nations. There is less volatility. I am a beat. Upbeat. I am anna the australian minister for resources. Thank you for tim coulter. We will talk more about the u. S. Jobs sector when we come back. eeeeohmumohweh hush my darling. dont fear my darling. the lion sleeps tonight. hush my darling. man snoring dont fear my darling. the lion sleeps tonight. woman snoring take the roar out of snore. Yet another innovation only at a sleep number store. Anna job stay in the usa. The labor market is tested by bebal economic it could the revisions to the august numbers. Stocks and hong kong rally after chinese authorities wrap up stimulus. The move comes after interest have failed to reverse chinas economic slowdown. In an exquisite interview, frederick a day or tells bloomberg the Market Reaction is overdone. There is an overreaction regarding china. Anna welcome to the second hour of countdown. I am an edwards here in london. I am anna edwards, here in london. The biggest quarterly loss in four years in this mornings trading session. Lets check in with Juliette Saly who is standing by. Juliette, we should not overplay this because the Hong Kong Market is catching up. We have seen stimulus introduced by chinese authorities. Juliette yes, we had that stimulant desk that stimulus announced a cousin that tax on first con deposit in china. Hong kong was close. Today, certainly playing catchup. This is the first time that hong kong has traded this quarter. Certainly a little bit of catch up there. Are leading the gains. Reports that could be stimulus measures trying to do boost tourism trying to boost tourism. Galaxy up 10 . Having a look at the close of australia, wend have seen a pretty flat day on the nikkei 225. Japan has had a boost from that rise we have seen coming through in hong kong. South korea closing lower today. 5 . By australia heart hit hard. Elsewhere in the region, general weakness did we have investors awaiting the u. S. Jobs report, similar to what you are going to be seeing in europe. It is good to feel into that question for the fed market pricing. A slim chance of a rate hike this month it china is closed today. A quick check on the currency market as well. The aussie dollar has been having a pretty good session. Sales rose. 4 . About. 1 . S. Cents, the japanese yen a little bit weaker and of that jobs report. Anna Juliette Saly reporting from hong kong, less than an hour ago until they last european trading day of the week. It is fairly positive picture coming through from the session. We are in a Holding Pattern as we wait for the payroll number do later. As you take a look at what is happening here in europe, you can see plus 1 number in the green at euro stocks. Market, we will get some decent gains as well. The ftse 100 playing lag because of its exposure to the commodity sector. Later today, and case you missed it, well get the u. S. Jobs report for the month of september here it this months number will be scoured over by fed watches, because what could be around the corner. Bloomberg survey asked economists lets get more from jamie murray. Jimmy, remind us of the jamie, remind us of the context. Jamie youre watching the emerging market affecting higher. You are at the effect of the erosion that is happened on wages. Beyond the headline jobs number, you want to look at the compass and and manufacturing look at the composition and manufacturing. Were looking at the composition of jobs and the unemployment numbers and wage growth. 2. 4 for annual wage growth. Tohow significant allow the economy to run hot . They would allow the jobs number to get really strong before increasing rates. We know they see left off in december. The fed needs to roll back the signals to see theyre more concerned than they should be about the health of the economy. Iny had two bad choices september. One the warning signal, worsening outflow from the Capital Markets. Hand, they were going to do damage talking about the strength of the u. S. Economy in the face of global turmoil in the emerging markets. Now the fed is saying a rate. Ike is in the crisis a rate hike is on the table, but we do not have to do it quite yet. Market where if there is any underlying flach, the Labor Participation rate is still a week. Supply of labor is a shrinking. This leave does other sectors . Draghi watch what is going on here . Whether it is surprising the market, that could lead elsewhere. Bad for the area as well. Its the sign posting that is the most important thing. Anna we were talking about that last hour. The reaction we have seen in the bond market. Thank you for joining us. Our twitterus to question. It is job stay, what are you watching . Are you looking for the september number . Are you looking for the revisions to august . Are you looking for the wages component . What is the particular focus to you . You can get in touch with us on twitter. Look at what we have later today. And includes the jobs number. From spain, we get unemployment numbers. In the u. S. , we get that nonfarm payrolls number. That is at 1 30 this afternoon. A big week for glencore did the giant found its self at the epicenter of a global panic on monday as 6 billion of shareholder money was raised in just a matter of hours. Will kennedy joins us on set. Well, good to see you. Well, good to see you what have you learned from this week about commodities, glencore or about the way that stock markets it is a mark that a ftse 100 just extraordinary. People are trying to digest what happened. Anna does this have to do with market conditioning it look at at conditioning. Looking at there was a gloomy report. We opened on monday in such weak form. Didnt have anything to do with the shortening that was going on in the markets . Will some hedge funds have taken prominent positions. That seems to coalesce around. Hat report that extraordinary dive we saw on monday morning. Anna a sense of panic in markets. How do we define a layman moment . Glencore mounted a pretty strong defense. Us,ing to journalists like lenders, shareholders about why the company has a lot of liquidity and plenty of strength to survive in the shortterm. That has been effective. August, stock prices moved yesterday. [laughter] anna what a relief. Have, thanksust we staying the same is quite a relief. Looking at a report that markets are set for the first annual net outflows this year in 27 years. We have not seen money leaving faster than it is coming into emerging markets. This is quite some turnaround. No wonder we are seeing gyrations. Between this and the fact that markets are still expecting defense move toward tightening while it is easing. I think the markets are discounting thick liquidity. That means the trust for Global Market volatility, so we are going to get market volatility. We have seven years of extraordinary liquidity. Banks creating more distortion than inflation at this point. As that gets unwound, where the to see more asset volatility. We are going to see more asset volatility. It is extraordinary in my career to see this kind of disconnect between commodity markets, equity markets and fixed income markets for so long. Weve seen more of a reconnect. When you look at treasuries and highs, and yourd you look at volatility in the emerging markets, there has been a signal of thick liquidity. More defensiveot to the price. Is a smaller part of the share of the Global Market. Laters were sooner or have to going to equity markets. We have seen this this week alone. Much. Lena, thank you very will kennedy, joining us. To china. Ommodities a. Asked frederick o day overreaction is a to something that is not going to be a surprise. Having trouble to china. We couldve seen a slowdown, but at the same time, there is an overreaction when people think that china is turning into a kind of couch. Anna more from manuss exclusive interview later on. Coming up, european leaders meet in paris to talk about ukraine. In the week that russia launched airstrikes in syria, could tensions dominate instead . Anna local back. Youre watching countdown. Seven. Tes past here are the stories you need to know. Investors will scrutinize u. S. Jobs data today. The worlds biggest economy is ready to hire Interest Rates this year. Last month, policymakers held off raising rates citing weaker than hoped for inflation at risk to Global Growth emanating from china. Gains led by carmakers and developers came as china sets up support for its economy. Stocks and casino operators also surged after a report that the government may unveil efforts to support tourist. Nine people are reported to have been killed in a mass shooting at a Community College in oregon. The government, age 26 was then killed in a shootout. Limited hisama countrys inability to stop repeated mass shootings. The reporting is routine. Podiumonse here at this ends up being routine. The conversation in the , we have become numb to this. We talked about this after columbine, blacksburg, after tucson come after newtown, after overall, after charleston. Anna lets talk about geopolitics. European leaders meet in paris to talk about ukraine. With russian strikes in syria, could tensions dominate the agenda . Caroling, good morning to you. Are going to focus less on ukraine and more on syria . Caroline ukraine is on the agenda. The focus will be very much about syria, because the russian airstrikes this week have changed the focus off this meeting. He will try to weigh what kind of support he can get in terms fight theoalition to Islamic State in syria. The french government has had some doubts about what art putins intentions in syria. Whether the Islamic State targets are his only goal. Whether he is trying to target other opposition growth. Putin willvladimir try to get the support from european leaders that he could not get at the yuan General Assembly on monday. He will have a separate meeting with the president and then with angela merkel. There is no separate meeting plan. The focus has completely moved away from ukraine and back on syria. More support from the french president. France has offered airstrikes in syria this week. The president said that the coalition may be possible under a very clear basis. Of course that means, according it is french president , impossible to make the victims and executioners walk together. Anna caroline joining us from paris. Russia has begun its airstrike campaign in syria. We are joined by customer grantville joined by christopher granville. What you make of what rush is doing . What is their intention . Christopher everyone says it is mysterious. It seems clear. Above all, a desire to prevent attacks of the syrian state. The Syrian Government headed by alassad is a standing ally of russia. The traps of the syrian state, like in libya,. Ould result in a disaster the installation of some sort of jihadi caliphate. It would it would present a Security Threat to russia. There are russian citizens fighting for the jihadi cause. This is abouth of people going to fight in this war and then coming back to russia how much of this is about people going to fight and then coming back to russia . Christopher most motives tend to be mixed. One of trying to get rush on the same side of the barricade as the United States and its allies is definitely present, and therefore tries to overcome the geopolitical competition that is been damaging to the russian economy. That is a part of the agenda as well. Theresily done, because is an opinion as to how to tackle the threat of Islamic State and the associated crisis of migrants and war refugees flooding into europe from syria. That debate goes on and on. Anniversaryay, the of the u. N. General assembly in new york. The bottom line in any sector of conflict, all sides have to be in play for there to be any solution. Defensiveosition is a one, in my view. Not allow the collapse of the syrian state. Just as in ukraine, their strategy is to avoid the crushing of the progression rebellion. The prorussian rebellion. Anna were getting breaking news. A joint statement from the u. S. , the u. K. , germany, saudi arabia, turkey. They call him russia to cease attacks on serious opposition. The statement on syria opposition. The statement coming through. Citing it will fuel more extremism. Russia and the west do not agree on. The role that other opposition groups has in this conflict. Christopher the saudis have been saying russia should desist. Obviously russia will not desist. It will not only hit the Islamic State, but also some of the other fighting groups. Some that are classified by the United States as jihadi terrorists. Also saudi backed forces, also not recognized by the United States. As it russia likes to say, the moderate opposition is an elusive leaving aside all of these debating points, which a concern Financial Market dispense market participants, on the one hand a sectarian. Onflict on the other hand some kind of partitioning of syria between the different sectarian groups. Then there prevails, will be more unrest. If their side prevails, it would be a libya style collapse, only by jockeying between these groups and dividing the country will there be a solution. That is being underreporting underreported in my view. Even putin and obama were touching on this. It is the only way to go. Anna crisper, thank you for joining us. Christopher, thank you for joining us. It is time for some final thoughts. Lets focus in on something that is been happening recently. Significant are the latest develop its . The most important thing of development reported this week. The Capital Markets are the engines to Mario Draghis fuel. What we need is not more money printing. Effective in refining the eurozone. Of course what we want is to reimagine the structures of growth. Nonbank financial finance is needs beyond the capacity of the banking system. Anna li na, thank you very much. Li na, thank you very much. Joining us for the last half hour. Were going to take a short break. We are going to have a look at where it european markets looks like were going to see a positive start. The only way to get better is to challenge yourself, and thats what were doing at xfinity. We are challenging ourselves to improve every aspect of your experience. And this includes our commitment to being on time. Every time. Thats why if were ever late for an appointment, well credit your account 20. Its our promise to you. Were doing everything we can to give you the best experience possible. Because we should fit into your life. Not the other way around. Anna welcome back. Youre watching countdown. It is 7 30. Here are the stories you need to know. Invested investors will scrutinize u. S. Job market data today. Of more than 90 economists predict an increase of 2001000 and payrolls. Payrolls hong kong stocks rebounded this morning. Developers came and china stepped up target reports for its economy. Stocks and casino operators also surged after reports the government may also unroll measures to support. Easy credit fueled the biggest surge in u. S. Auto sales in more than a decade last month. Less than half hour ago until the start of European Equity trade. Lets have a look at what is happening on equity markets. Upseems the euro stocks are by 1 . Speculation as to whether they will help the tourist industry. A positive vibe coming through from asia. We will be heading we will be waiting for that number later. 1 . Stocks up we have been bring you little clips of manus crannys axis of interview with exclusive interview with josh frydenberg. Close on when the fed might raise rates. Manus joins us now. Pleasure to talk with them. Theyve got their thoughts on the ipo market. Manus this is quite important, because one of the most difficult task for any banker is capital versus dividend. Is dividend here versus capital. They are going to stick with the dividend policy. But the market has been speculating is is he brave enough to do the ipo on a monday. Just a chilean dollars under management. He is game on. I am confident, because i see appetite for very high quality europe equity asset. As i said, i see in the next 12 to 18 months, good prospect overall. Manus he says he sees it as a decent month for equities. That is why hes want to go ahead for that ipl. Equity has had the worst run. He seems to be fairly committed to that. That would add to their capital part. Lets look about the fed. The jobs picture and the fed. What did he have to say about the state of things in the u. S. . A huge advocate of this low Interest Rate environment. Our week at the end of the quantitative easing cycle, no, not at all. Frederic i am not that big of a fan of economic policy. It lasted too long. They are a good economic booster, they create distortions in asset prices. Manyuch money chasing too chasing to less assets. At fed will raise rates here raise rates. We seem to think so in december. Money will be available and thats where personally i remain positive. Progress scenario of and improvement of the economy in the eurozone. The local commodity price is not that bad. Assets this category of will be considered not that expensive. Manus you think they will extend qe in 2016. Frederic maybe a little bit longer. Manus great form. Range ofd a broad issues. A great deal of tablets back in 2011 himself. He grasps the issue and message. Anna manus, thank you very much. Manus with that exclusive interview with Frederic Oudea. Ets bring in our next guest great to see you. Manus was talking with Frederic Oudea about the negatives surrounding keeping Interest Rates low for a very long time in the United States. Are we on the verge of an increase in Interest Rates in the u. S. . Caught between a rock and a hard place. Economy rather run the into a bit of inflation risk, the reason for that is the labor market and some of the signals are flashing amber in terms of inflation coming through. You have been hit by 25 over three years. Stock markets have become more volatile. All of these are pulling in the other direction. Anna they were talking about wanting to run the economy a little hot. Tapan that is behind the psychology of where the fed is today. Later rather than sooner would be our message. Do you think december will happen . Anna you think december will happen . Surprisedre has been at how negative the Market Reaction was. Whereweak and indecisive, at the mercy of the markets. Markets are not pricing in on a lift off in december. The fed does not want to disappoint the market. They must be frustrated. Tapan if you look at the be morect, it couldnt marked than it is today. That damage has been done between what the markets think. Anna you see opportunities in the u. S. Talked about the u. S. High yields. We have that conversation about how some of the highyield in the Energy Sector are best avoided. Tapan you want to avoid the energy. It doesnt look quite as bad. The thing that we all need to work through is a little easing environment. Order. Fishing is in in my get worse before it gets better. It is probably a time to look at high yields. Markethy emerging difference has held up as well as it has. Anna it is about country picking. Tapan it is about picking the right industry sector here it is you are at desk sector. Still running fairly well. Anna can negative thoughts on Something Else . Can you give your thoughts on Something Else . Dollar and u. S. Corporate. Is this something that is material . Could it have an impact on sterling . U. K. , it is not just the there are two way risks. From what i perceived to be a rising risk of a no vote in the brexit referendum here it referendum. If the u. K. Does leave, it damages the european project. Sterling has been depreciating for years now. Volatility is likely from that. Recently, the chances for a brexit. You can watch the conservatives and workout wear that conversation is going to go. Media have shifted toward the euro skeptic stance. The public has as well. The public is more proremaining in. Usa cap and data stays with datta stays with us. Missing from the official agenda, britains new membership of the european union. It is not going to be formally discussed by cameron. He promised a referendum by the end of 2017. It is going to be featuring in some of the french evidence in manchester. Where would we live on monday we are going to be live on monday from that conservative party conference. Finding funding is another matter. Investments from gp ball out took us behind the scene to find out what grabbed his attention during a day of pitches. Ambition does this is in the technology sector. Capital. Helping thinks strategically. Doing acquisitions. Health and exit through m a or an ipo. We have identify the sectors we want to go into, who are the 50 key players . Theyre all doing slightly different things. Researching as much as you can and try to work out which is going to have the best chance for success. [indiscernible] the next to the three years. The next two to three years. Data. Hes got the to expand. He the ambition to create a billion Dollar Company here. What have been some of the metrics you can share on the families and households being served . We delivered over 4 million meals per month. The numbers are much higher by now. 4 million meals is quite a lot. One of those meetings where you kick yourself, because when you look at his metrics, 4 million meals plus, they have clearly invested a lot in the logistics that allows that foundation to grow. This average return, what can i expect as investors . Lower [indiscernible] from a would very fromto 8. 5 here it 8 to 8. 5 . We have a lot of these meetings. We meet a lot of on to newers. Every once in a while, you meet an entrepreneur that you are totally blown away by. It is those sorts of guys that you want to back. You will do anything you can to alongside guys, work them. The team is crucial. Anna fascinating look behind the scenes. It is 7 43 here in london. A look at how the European Equity markets look set to open. A generally positive we had earlier on a more mixed, now mixed to flat as a way for the jobs report out of the u. S. We will take a short break. Datta when wen come back. Anna welcome back. It is countdown. Stories need to know. Investors will scrutinize u. S. Jobs data due later today. The worlds biggest economy is ready for higher Interest Rates later this year. Bloombergs survey of more than s last month, policymakers held off raising rates, citing weaker than hope for hong kong stocks rebounded this morning. Carmakers. Et by the report a government may unveiled measures to support the european the tourist industry. Age 26say the government was killed in a shootout. Hisident obama offered condolences and limited his countries and ability to stop mass shootings. Here at thise podium ends up being routine. The conversation in the aftermath of it. We have become numb to this. We talked about this after columbine, blacksburg. After tucson, after newtown, overall, after charleston. An occult lets move on. Just a few minutes away anna lets move on. Just a few minutes away from the European Equity markets opening. We seefutures stimulus in china helping to boost a little bit more, as we look toward the u. S. Jobs data. When they get jobs out there. Will they get jobs out there . Air france saying theyre going to scale back. White . The problems theyre having why . The problems theyre having with your own pilots. The fact that they cannot strike a deal with their own pilots. The board failed to reach an agreement with the pilot union. They were going to be profitable last year if they had not seen that extended pilot strike that half a billion euros. We get an update from the bus company, the Train Company and first group saying trading is in line with forecasts. Strong u. K. Rail passengers underlying their cash flow. The u. S. Exposed to dollar. Overall, the dollar revenues are expected to be about 5 lower. Keep an eye on first group. Lastly, germany utilities. Already trading higher in markets. Aon could be supported as vice chancellor. Sick mark gabriel saying we need to back our utilities. He cites them by name. He says they are in a difficult difficultion and a situation. Look at the share price that we have seen tumbling from rwe. Events of tragic shema in japan. Scaling back from Nuclear Power and not getting any support. Finally, a government minister backing up. Well see how shares react. Anna caroline, thank you. European markets ready for their final day of the week. Lets get back to tapan datta. About thewere talking cited concerns about china. China introducing a mini stimulus today. Something around autos and mortgages. Is that it from china echo do you wait for more . We need to watch the targeted fiscal stimulus. Easeacatee the monetary has been done five times. Boom. Ighty credit if youre worrying about capital outflows from china, cutting Interest Rates is not helpful. The fiscal side has room to grow. That is where we are good to see more. Anna any bottoming out for the commodity cycle . Tapan thein balance is in much better shape. Over the next 12 months. One of the difficulties looking ahead, when you add up the demand and supply, it doesnt look very good for commodities. On a return basis, commodities look pretty ropey in the longterm. Anna if we see something firmer in commodities, we should not get too excited . Tapan i think you should not. Stay restraint. Thaed. Restraint anna you talk about productivity famine. Are we turning a corner . Tapan i think we will see a cyclical uplift. That is a key factor in the longterm growth slowed down that we have seen around the world for a number of years. Anna tapan, thank you for joining us. Have a good weekend. Apan datta minutes to go into the start of the European Equity day. Jon ferro is here. Good morning. Jonathan september, an ugly month for markets. This morning, the u. S. Labor market gets a Global Market stress tests. How will it come out the other side echo will it give a green light to the fed to hike Interest Rates . The consensus estimate is the lowest one since march 2014. Why all of the pessimism . We will discuss that. Take a look at the emerging markets. ,he iif putting out a report outflows set to outstrip outstrip inflows for the First Time Since 1988. We will talk about a triple meeting toces discuss ukraine. Syria casting a long shadow over that meeting. Anna thank you very much. They will bring you that unemployment data. Focusing on the jobs report. That is later on today. All of that coverage here on bloomberg. I am on twitter. I will be making my guess my careful estimates later. Jon ferro will be playing in a game as well. What are you watching . September . August revision . Or the wages . It in touch with me on twitter. Look at the futures tells me we look set for something vaguely positive at the start of the equity trading day. We could go higher. That will do it for us. Jonathan good morning. Happy friday. Welcome to on the move. I am jonathan ferro. Just moments away from the start of european trading. Lets get to your morning brief. It is jobs day. Will the september report give the fed a green light to hike the u. S. Labor market. E. M. , in turmoil. Capital outflows from emerging markets is set to exceed inflows for the First Time Since 1988. Summit and paris just summit in paris. Global leaders russia to stop bombing in syria. Ahead of the open, 20 seconds away. But you futures up desk ftse. Utures up ftse futures up lets wrap it up with caroline hyde. Caroline could we see green on this friday . We move toward the open. Hong kong as to stimulus. That helping to recover from yesterday. I selloff amid the gloomy manufacturing data we got out of the United States yesterday. Not voting all of that will for the jobs data later today. 200,000get in excess of will we get in excess of 200,000 . Payroll lacking when it came to the overall view of the market. The cac jumping more than one percentage point. The big recovery happening in mortgage. Ina, helps it helps with stimulus