Transcripts For BLOOMBERG Bloomberg Markets 20151118

Julie it does seem like it. They did go a little higher, and is the word, and i guess the absence of negative reaction is what is going on. If you look at the s p 500, over the course of the day, you can see more clearly the action leading up to the fed minutes, so if we look at the intraday chart, we can look at the trajectory, so here we are at 2 00, taking another lake upward, and then rising to the hive here, so not a huge reaction, but a positive one, nonetheless rising to the here. We have got materials leading the gains, but it is now more of a broadbased rally, and what i about theesting, too, reaction in stocks, although it is not a huge one, the minutes did not tell us anything we did not know, and the minutes happened before the last jobs report, which gave us more information about the trajectory of the economy, so it is not as though there was anything shocking in the commentary. Betty but for some, the fact that they said this even before the latest jobs report if they had seen that, maybe they had been even more forceful about a rate hike. Julie speaking with Federal Reserve officials, and even Dennis Lockhart today said he was comfortable moving off of 0 , and the world Interest Rate still sittingrp, at 60 , and it was looking at the likelihood of a december rate hike, and that was the same as it was before these minutes came out, and if you look at the treasury markets also, we are seeing a little bit of a come down in the yield, and that would be an opposite interpretation of the data. The twoyear note is coming down a little, but largely unchanged from before the minutes came out, and also on the 10years side, we also saw a reaction that was similar, coming down a little bit in terms of that yield, and we have been seeing the dollar going down to unchanged, as well. All right, thank you very much, julie. Julie hyman at the markets desk. Mark crumpton. Good afternoon, mark. Mark the ringleader of the attacks iss terror dead, according to reports citing two intelligence officials who say he was killed by french commandos during a massive raid. At least one other person was also killed. Seven suspects were taken alive during the operation, and french prosecutors are now backing away from the claim that one of the dead was a woman who was killed after detonating and explosives wrenchnd meanwhile, president Francois Hollande is calling on the people to define the terrorism, french president Francois Hollande is calling on people to defy terrorism. And there is no word on when or where some others were captured, and jeb bush wants to have u. S. Boots on the ground in china. The republican president ial candidate says the forces need to increase the presence on the ground. The former Florida Governor says air firepower is essential but will not be enough to defeat Islamic State. The felony case against former Texas Governor rick perry is now in the hands of the states highest criminal court. A ruling by the texas court of criminal appeals could determine stands trial on charges of abusing his power while in office. Perry says the charges are blamesally motivated and them for his failed 2016 president ial bid. You can get more on these and other breaking stories 24 hours a day on the new bloomberg. Com. First wordmberg desk, i am mark crumpton. Betty, back to you. Betty saying that there is a likely december fed rate hike, it was said that no decision has been made but it may be appropriate to initiate a normalization process at the next meeting. Lubricant now is our economics editor in washington, mike mckee. Does it seem like it is game over and that they are going to be raising this next month . Mike they would be considering it a appropriate move, it given that shocks do not adversely affect the economic outlook, and report was aayroll positive shot, so unless we get some really, really bad numbers, it really looks like they are in trained to do this. To do this, and there are people that are voting members, one saying he is ready to go in october. A timelines this where we say we are moving beyond december, and it will probably be 25 basis point what is it going to look like next year . well probably lost in a fed rate increase if we get any kind of decent numbers, and then asked has been said over the last couple of days, when is the second rate increase . And how far do they go before we finally stop . That is what in the minutes they manyemphasizing today, and were talking about this in the intervening period, and it is not when they start but how long it takes them to get to wherever they and up and where that might be, and we got evidence in the minutes that they had a staff presentation at their meeting that that terminal rate, that rate is lower than it has been under similar economic market should the expect the fed to be low and slow for a long time. Mike, thankight, you. Mike mckee our Bloomberg Economics editor. And there is a chief economist, diane, joining us. So, diane, is now the focus how high they will go . Diane absolutely, and i think the clock countdown clocks has begun, barring anything in december, as mike pointed out, but i want to emphasize, as mike pointed out, really stressing the low and slow glide path and and the cpi data. That does not change that argument one i go to, and that will be important, and where it will be for chair yellen does not change that argument one iota, and it is a low glide path. There is a question on the timing of liftoff, and there are people who would like to hold off. I would really not like to see on liftoff, because this would be the first rate hike in a decade. Stressing low for longer, and he even went so far to overshoot and keep Monetary Policy more stimulative longer to allow the Unemployment Rate to even fall further and to go beyond our goals to allow the economy to heal. In their said that statement, as well, and i think that is something the market is missing. They are going to be far to you oh quick. You are hearing about a rapid glide path, and that is just not here, and this went beyond any data in changing the course from the slow glide path. That is something that chair yellen emphasizes. Ok, describe something slow, diane. Im it could be six months. I do not think it is set in stone whatsoever. Is that the fed ends the year in that range of 75. Asis points that is a little lower than consensus. I think they will be cautious enough about not wanted to return to that zero boundary. Remember, the other discussion here is, listen, if we go up and we have failed, and then two, we do not have any more powder, so they do not want to derail. Are going tothings factor into that slow glide path. It seems like this was going to go into a rate hike, but, remember, we have got one more jobs report before they meet, and the fact that the head officials are already signaling they are going to raise rates, they feel good about the economy, does that mean that they are not worried that that jobs report can throw everything off . Not worriedare about a jobs report because they have already lowered it going into the meeting. That has largely already been made. They lowered the threshold to 100,000 in job gains, and when they got more than double that, we could fall short, and they could say we are within the range, we are ready to go, and the issue will be it will be slow. Make no doubt about it, and if it is rapid, it is only because we have got some heat in this economy. And inflation in response to a strong economy. I think that is a critical issue. We would love to see some of that. Betty what are rates going to look like . How high are they going to go . When will they end . Bring up the dots. Diane i think we can just dump the dots. Lets just show our audience. The forecast is by 2018, we will be at least 3. 8 in Interest Rates. Does that sound high or low . Diane i think were going to see continuing nudging down on the terminal rate, the feds fund rate, but what you will see removed out of that. Chart there wast dot chart, someone at a minneapolis that put a negative number in, and it will be more of a consensus forecast, but you always get politics in this, but the terminal rate is going to be lower, and that is where the fed thinking is, as well. They keep ringing down the terminal rate. I would love to get there by 2018. I do not have faith that we will get there. Diane, thank you. Those minutes just came out a ago,e more than an hour and next up, General Motors is launching some new cadillac and we are live in l. A. With the gm product head, and a devaluation of the currency, and jack dorseys square. Company succeed and a volatile environment for a Public Offering . Is as we had to rate, here where the markets are trading after the fed minutes, and we are rallying. Betty good afternoon, and welcome back to Bloomberg Markets pure geoeye and betty liu. We are heading higher and higher, and senior markets correspondent julie hyman is standing by. A derivatives strategist, i want to start with the reaction we are seeing to the fed minutes. Stocks took a leg higher after this. We are not seeing much action in other assets. What is your take on what we heard from the fed . Guest what we want to do is gradually inoculate people, and they brought it around to the minds of Portfolio Managers that this is going to happen, giving them time to adjust, and what they are looking for when they do move, we might not get it. We might just get a reaction, and i think some of the market moves in the last weeks and decisions, it may be bears this out. Julie so in the options market, are we seeing someone positioning, bracing themselves for the fed rate increase at this point, or are we not seeing that kind of activity . 500,000 contracts per day, monday and tuesday closely closer to 800,000. Most of these were relatively shortterm. They may be positioning for that. Intraday, before the minutes came out, we did get a bit of a spike, which is also expected, but none of that points to an outsized market reaction. Lets get your trade of the day on a very different topic. When resorts. Resorts. I think they are pushing back there opening in macau by three months, until june of next year. Have are the issues they had with the resorts, and i would not say they are bullish, but it is not as bearish as it has been . Vip casinos have been struggling, and some have been doing much better, and that may not be the trend next year. I think we may see some reversion to the mean, and whether it is Short Interest or the percentage of the float, analyst coverage, and even the options market. Options are near the multiyear highs. So there is just massive pessimism. Little even if you see a bit of reversion to the mean, you will see the stock trades even sideways, you might see some of that premium come out of the option market. Julie what are you doing . 4050 put spread. Notly, as long as it does break through that low from early october, the trade is going to make money. Risk is limited to the difference between the strikes, so it is not an overly aggressive trade, but i think there is potential for a turnaround. Julie all right, thank you, bgc partners. Always good to talk to you. That, betty. Betty at the new auto show, and willf the denali vehicles be able to drive and shelves drive themselves on autopilot . We ask, coming up ahead. Betty welcome back to Bloomberg Markets your quote markets. Erg the chevy camaro was named car of the year, and the chevy colorado was named truck of the year, and i want to talk to our bloomberg resident automotive expert, matt miller, who talk to the executive Vice President of Global Development from the auto show. Match . Matt thank you, betty. Ensure it has happened before that the same manufacturer got car of the year and truck of the year, but isnt this the second year in a row for you to win car of the year with that car . Mark it is, and, by the way, high, match. Thinking about you. It is a great show. Part of it is the first time it happened, the first on it happen was colorado, regular gas engines, and then the second year since we got 31 miles per gallon on the highway for that truck, it is the second year, so we are very excited. Matt i wonder what people are saying about d so in that truck. Diesel engine in the truck is a much different story than, say, a Diesel Engine in a volkswagen . Cloud,etheless, a black no pun intended, floating over gm, in general. What is the feeling at the show right now . Differentel is so than in cars, as you mentioned. This is a celebrated part of truck history, the workhorses and being duty oriented and getting great fuel economy, so they really has not been a black cloud around this, and, in fact, we are so proud that there was the epa certification that cap the truck and extra two weeks, and they went through every single piece of our certification, and then kept it another week because they wanted to use it as an example of how to calibrate diesel emissions, so we could not be happier, and they wrote us a beautifully written letter on how well they think the truck performed, so we really feel good about it, and we have got all of the systems on it for him emissions that make it great, so the truck is just a wonderful truck. By the way, i was on the patio with you maybe a month ago in new york when we saw this happen, so i felt really good about that, also, matt. Your we appreciate stopping by, and that is rugged. That is fantastic. The camaro has obviously done well since it first came out, but i really wonder how much the halo effect pulls through. I was at the chevy dealer this afternoon, my brother picking up his camaro from service, and i wondered about coming in here and looking at a camaro and walking out with an impala or a malibu. Is that still working . Mark it does work, and in fact, last night, we picked up four of awards,ey blue book even with the tahoe, and were putting together a string of wins for General Motors, and particularly the products we launch with chevrolet, but these are products that we do not have to explain to anybody. Peoplere things that really desire and want, and we feel really good about that, but, yes, absolutely, the halo effect is there. From a quality standpoint, and from a dealer standpoint. A product standpoint. You have to have all of those. Matt i remember seeing a huge billboard in china and beijing, and i am sure betty has seen it a lot there, as well. The brand has a huge presence in china. Have you seen headwinds from the recent stock market issues they have had, the slowdown in the economy there . Mark no, we have not. If you look at our retail sales there, they have been strong and are strong. The brand itself is so strong in china, and we just have not seen that. Bringing back the colored, filled in peace that has been missing from the American Market for quite a few years, so, again, it is kind of white and blue. We just have not seen that. I look forward seeing it in person when i see you, and, mark, thank you. Betty how many cars do you have . Driveway . Y i think four right now, but they are not all mine. Betty all right, lots more ahead on open Bloomberg Markets. Live from bloomberg headquarters in midtown manhattan, i am betty liu with Bloomberg Markets. Mark crumpton. Mark authorities are trying to identify the identities of two people following a raid in the french capital, among seven suspects taken alive. Two are dead, including a woman whod that made it a vest she was wearing. There are conflicting reports on whether the alleged ringleader was captured or killed. Here is the french president , Francois Hollande. There arehollande several being interrogated. The identity of people arrested in this building are not but saleh certain, was not part of them. Mark he also talked about the people not resorting to fear and xenophobia. And an exclusive Bloomberg News poll found that at least 50 of those surveyed that took place said the u. S. Cks should stop plans that would allow 10,000 Syrian Refugees to resettle here. The nation is divided about sending troops to iraq and syria to fight Islamic State, with 44 supporting it and 45 against, but 53 of those surveyed support a u. S. And Russian Coalition to fight islamic terrorism. We will have more on the results in just a few minutes. And the speaker of the house of representatives, paul ryan, says a does not require passing religious test before arriving in the united states. Speaker ryan says the legislation is based on a easing up of background checks and says they will only be allowed into the country its intelligence and lawenforcement officials certified that they do not pose a threat. Country is anthe easy and unsettled, and they have every right to be, not because of what they are hearing from politicians but what they have seen with their own eyes. Mark speaker ryans description of the legislation conflicted with that of some gop candidates, which suggests preference begin to christians. More than half of the governors say they will not allow syrian andgees into their dates, the legislation also temporarily halts president obamas plan to allow Syrian Refugees to come here, and i ran has begun cutting back on its nuclear along with aove deal involving also the united states. U. N. Says that as of november 15, iran had reduced by 300 the number of centrifuges that can be used to enrich uranium. Can get more on these and other breaking stories 24 hours a day at the new bloomberg. Com. Rom the bloomberg first word desk, i am mark crumpton. Betty, back to you. Live from the nasdaq, taking a look at two stocks going in different directions, one of them is apple, right, abigail . Abigail yes, and one in the they one analyst says are just not simply looking at the company as a Hardware Company and sees a significant multiyear opportunity with music, tv, and apple pay. It is down near its 50 and 100day moving averages, among what some are calling strong buying momentum, and qualcomm, one of the biggest laggards, south korea has accused them of trade breaches, saying they have violated local law on his licensing practices. And the regulator may find them and force them to change their activities. Qualcomm came back and said this was a serious misapplication of the law. These shares are down about 35 year to date, in part due to licensing practices in china. Legislators may be making a connection between the two, whether correctly or incorrectly, sending the shares down more than 10 at this time. Betty . Betty thank you, Abigail Doolittle at the desk. Industry has fund gotten another blow. Slow rock has decided to down a hedge fund that has also lost money this year. Nowad 6 billion in assets, less than 1 billion. These numbers according to someone familiar with the matter. And also shutting another macro fun, and more on the blackrock decision, our Bloomberg View columnist this morning. Mentioned, i went to get to lets just get to the report on this story. I guess we did not have that interview, but in any case, it is the same story here, right . Macro hedge funds. Reporter it has been a very difficult year. Fortress making a move to close it fun. And these funds are down this year according to data come bloomberg,ompiled by and it is generally a very difficult environment. Think about these funds. They make very large bets on currencies, rates, commodities, and for stocks and bonds. Look at how many surprises we have had this year in those areas, and in january, and then the cap on the fright, and then devaluation inn august, and then what commodities have done and oil, and at a certain point, i saw people tweeting a hash tag with casino, because at some point, research can only get you so far. Betty and there are a Value Investors who say it is very hard to differentiate the good from the bad in this environment. So what does it take for blackrock in this environment . Devin these three large funds we talked about, they were all down pretty much throughout the year. Clientstions between and the fund manager, and you will have redemption notices, and that will get the Fund Managers attention. Then, it is better to stop investing and return it to clients. And start over. Think about redoing the team, moving some of the team Members Around the firm to other funds to lay low for a while, work on the reputation and get your clients excited again once the trends pick up. Blackrock ande fortress. Who is doing the work . Closed down, and they decided to close last month, and the Swiss National bank really pulled on it, and then it sort of bled out over the year. Thee are people leaving firm, leaving the fund management, and then eventually, they decided to wind that down, but this has been a very difficult year. Who broke a colleague this story on blackrock today. They had redemptions throughout the year. You can kind of almost figure out which funds are thinking about in the future. Betty right, and look for other macro funds, as well. Ok, what about lackrock other funds . Othert about blackrocks funds . They have about 31 billion dollars, so this is a pretty small child. There was a Statement Issued to my colleague who says they actually closed about 200 funds a year, so that sort of points to how many funds are under their umbrella on their own. Thehis is a small part of blackrock business. There is one that is popular because these guys are and this isso well, something we know very well and see all of the time, so this gets attention. And there is a larger question on what alpha can be generated, and people doubt the amount of out by that they can generate. Betty it is interesting. On a story like this, blackrock once you to know that they do close funds and that this is not all of that special. All right, thank you. More ahead on Bloomberg Markets. Market are taking off today. They are rallying. A good bet . Ties looking to europe for better returns. That might be a better strategy, and square after the close today. It has not been a banner year offerings foursquare and match, and can they bucked the trend . And the aftermath of the parisian attacks. Republican president ial candidates Lindsey Graham advocates putting troops on the ground. He agrees with the president. Us at 5 00 p. M. Eastern betty good afternoon, and welcome back to Bloomberg Markets. I am betty liu. Most americans want america to stop letting in Syrian Refugees, the result of a Bloomberg National poll, and tomorrow, they will vote on halting president obamas resettlement plan. We are joined now from washington. These poll results lend weight to republican view that they want to other ban or limit these programs, settlement programs. you are seeing the rationale that the republicans have been presenting as to why they not only need to halt this program but shifted this program, and the president have promised to bring in 10,000 Syrian Refugees, and at this point, few have gotten in. There is a concern about what these Syrian Refugees coming in would do, and now we have actual numbers to back up where those concerns are coming from. More than 50 of americans are opposed to the program entirely, only a little bit under 30 think it should continue, and so, ready, everybody looks at what is the politics year, why are people positioning like this, and i have been talking to officials, and they are hearing this from back home. Are hearing this from constituents, and that is why they are taking action and why tomorrows vote will certainly go through, and it will cause some Serious Problems for the administration. Results. , some more 64 believe that islam is inherently a peaceful religion but that there is teaching to promote violence, but 64 , phil, is still immature to the of americans who think that religion is peaceful. If youre looking at a reflection of the u. S. Society onthe u. S. Reflecting issues the ground, you would look at that number on the ground and think that is good. It would be bad if it were the opposite. Another important number to pull out of this is that 21 of people in this poll. The Islamic State was the most important issue going into the 2016 campaign. That is up 10 point in two surely,and slowly but this is becoming a foreignpolicy election. Thisthe past few days, became a very Serious National Security election. This could dissipate, but for the moment, you are seeing all of the 2016 candidates talk about it, and why you are seeing this issue becoming so important on capitol hill. Lawmakers are going to have to answer these questions. Onse are the questions people of minds, and it is equal now to the economy, and if this continues, it could certainly rise ahead of that. Betty all right, thank you Phil Mattingly with more on that bloomberg poll on the Syrian Refugees. The liftoff is still in play, according to the fed minutes, and the market responded, the s p at its highest level at a week, the dollar strengthening after the fed said were pretty much near the highs of the session as we get towards the close, and i want to bring in our bloomberg editor joe weisenthal. What did you think, joe . Joe i think janet yellen should be really happy right now, as they are clearly setting the stage for a december hike. It is not a done deal, but they are priming the market. Stocks are doing fine. The dollar, the twyear yield, anything sensitive to a rate , so they are not only getting ready for the rate hike, but they are also really in sync. Betty and using the world word possibility. Joe it is important to note that we have gotten a lot of data since that report, including that blockbuster jobs report, and clearly during that time, they made it pretty clear when they make that statement and all of the subsequent speeches that december was a real possibility, so i do not think these minutes today at times to our body of information, but, yes, clearly december is in play. Betty youre going to be talking to a guest on your show who is looking at europe. Joe yes, and he has had this call for a while, long the dollar, long the dax, and the dollar because of the euro is going to weaken against it, and then the dax, where all of the stimulus is happening, but still more quantitative easing. Estate, so to speak, is in german stocks, so, potentially, that could be the trade. Betty ok, thank you so much, joe weisenthal, the cohost of miss . You and much more on Bloomberg Markets. Here is where markets are trading currently. Betty welcome back to bloomberg market. I am betty liu. Markets closing in about 10 minutes, and this had minutes were released at 2 00 p. M. , showing once again that fed officials look ready to raise Interest Rates in december. Julie hyman a check at the market desk, and there were performers like apple. Julie yes, the s p had that fed, and we didnt get that report, and apple did get a lift, Goldman Sachs adding it to buy list with a target of 163, and the endless are sort of coming up with a different thesis for apple, if you will, saying we should be valuing it more as a Services Company than a Hardware Company, that apples revenue in the next to years will transfer more a Services Provider as people buy more of their phone packages, music, etc. , so it looks like at least for today, people are buying that thesis, if you will. Some of the other stocks included sunedison. The company was actually halted for a bit due to volatility, and then when it resumed trading, we saw a pretty good leg up. It doesnt look like there was anything particular spurring the stock. There was a note earlier today from Deutsche Bank saying it was overdone, a very volatile stock, and we have had some hedge Fund Managers who pulled back from it has very highit Short Interest, so there could be some Short Covering in the stock today. Also, maybe a price war going on in this business, so actually it should be sprint here instead of at t. Sprint coming out today, saying it will be cutting prices and intensifying that price battle, and then finally qualcomm fell sharply after the south korean their trade commission accused violating local competition law. Qualcomm has faced a number of legal challenges around the globe, this is the latest, and investors clearly concerned about it. Betty ok, julie, thank you much. Julie hyman at the market desk. And Tech Companies pricing their ipos, and square and match, the Parent Company of match. Com, and i want to bring in our ipo reporter. What have we heard about this . Reporter right now, we were talking to a person familiar earlier today. Match is being guided at the midpoint of the range, which is 12 to 14, and it seems like they are looking at two dollars and we will be keeping a close eye on to where they price it, and there are still these questions on how do you value these companies . To be the more play, and internet dating sites. It is all online, a very obvious online service, but square is the one that starts to race and questions as to whether investors value it as a tech company or as a Services Company, and depending on what they set later, we will get some clarity. Betty in silicon valley, it may be the valuations were too much. We had the founder of linked in. Lets listen to what he said about that. This is what i think there is this quasibubble. Public markets have a lot of feedback, where people can see other people buying and selling, and they can kind of stabilize their price. Player,tense to be the so it is very easy to get an inflated valuation, because somebody get excited about this, and there is a higher valuation, they believe the upward to gesturing the upward trajectory. And it is a very focused kind of small position. It is not a general publicmarket position, so i think we will see more of them, because i think people are trying to figure out what are the next airbnbs, what are the next ubers, and then sometimes, you guess wrong. Betty so is there more scrutiny on how these companies are valued . yes, and there is a pulling back maybe of some of the exuberance that there was before to get into these private companies. Called seen what we have these crossover investors in my world, investors are typically get in and pour money into the private, whether it be hedge funds or sovereign wealth funds, and it seems like people are kind of taking a breather, as we are seeing the life of square coming in at a valuation lower than it got in the private round, and others not doing too does seem like this kind of young crop of companies, it has been around for the last five years, that are seeing this money pouring in from private dollars. There might be kind of a rebalancing going on, as folks are saying, look, am i going to be able to get the return that i want . Betty so on match, their ipo, is anybody talking about how it might not be that attractive because they have a they have sites that kind of cannibalize each other . Lot are movinga to mobile, which is relatively dating match, for their properties, so when i talked to the company, they told me in the past that when people get on Online Dating sites, they do not only use one. They use a lot, which can be a benefit for them, but it can also be a little bit like cannibalization, but for tender ofinder, it is still a kind relatively new and untried is oneso cannibalization of the things and being the Market Leader and finding some growth that is outside of just where they are setting out right now. Those are going to be the two Big Questions for them. Thanks, and, of course, we will bring you all of the headlines when these Companies Price per your all right, that is it for bloomberg market. Miss . Is next, and stocks are set to and the session higher on the back of these said minutes. In fact, it looks like we are about to close right at the high of these session. We are moments away from the closing bell. Alix what a rally. U. S. Stocks closing at their second hide. Joe the question is why did you miss . Scarlet they are winding down the global macro fund. Joe terrorisms threat to the market. How terrorism is hurting to arisen and what it could mean for the ruble. Alix and the rise of the robots. How will we find work . We begin with the markets. You said it perfectly. What a rally. Six stocks higher for everyone that has fallen. That makes of the broadest rally since october 5. After those minutes came out it was off to the races