claims of responsibility by isis or other terrorist groups. this horrible event comes a day after donald trump delivered a restrained and sober speech from the stage of the republican national convention last night where he described a world and nation essentially falling apart. this morning at a rally in cleveland, trump reverted back to his familiar trademark free styling ways. he rift on stage for about 45 minutes with mike pence standing behind him. he thanked his supporters and his staff. the also had tough words for his johnr nomination rivals kasich and ted cruz, neither of whom has endorsed trump. mr. trump: he will come and endorse because he has no choice. but i don't want his endorsement. i have such, i don't want his endorsement. stay home, relax and enjoy yourself. >> i like ted, he is fine. if he gives it, i will not accept it. i will not accept it. i don't know his father, i met him once. i think he is a lovely guy. all i did is point out the fact that on the cover of the national enquirer, there is a picture of him and crazy lee harvey wa oswald having breakfast. whether you are the governor of ohio, whether you are a senator from texas, or any of the other people that i beat so easily and so badly, you have no choice. you've gotr trump -- to go for trump. mike.ning us today, quite a performance by trump today. mike: whatever hope the republicans have after the speech last night, and i think it was only a little bit of hope, came crashing back down to earth today. cannot win this election with 30% of the vote or 40% of the vote. to undecidedch out voters. i don't see where he scored last night with them. if he did, those victories were lost today. this thing was supposed to be a hisk you rally for supporters and volunteers. it turned into a free styling comedy routine. of what he did a few weeks ago with his surrogates. he was supposed to thank them help. turned into every worst nightmare of the campaign where he was encouraging them to go after the indiana judge. hits, sort of a greatest from the primary season. a few days ago, trump tweeted cruz's speech was no big deal. obviously it is not. i just think, i am not sure where the campaign goes from here. >> i was in the room this morning. this is what the kids call, peak trump. he had the room cracking up. he did thank his supporters. we saw more chemistry with mike pence. if people were looking for last night's convention speech to be a new template, forget about it. he used a fair amount of time talking about other stuff, which a lot of republicans think will not happen. thing is interesting to read that reason he raised questions was to put himself front and center back in the news, not let the convention fadeaway. to take the oxygen away from the hillary clinton running announcement. >> he certainly did that. how long will that last? is he going to have another ace in his pocket for when the announcement happens? mark: trump can make up news anytime he wants. the speech last night, clocked in at 75 minutes. a fair amount of that was applause. trump has gotten pretty good reviews. his supporters saw it as a breakthrough moment. that demonstrates trump can look the part of a serious and restrained commander in chief. others lambasted the gop nominee for peddling fear inducing rhetoric. a speech of doom and gloom, america as a declining nation. among the critics was president obama who had this to say. idea thatobama: this america is somehow on the verge of collapse, this vision of violence and chaos everywhere, doesn't really jive with the experience of most people. mark: mike, did trump in his speech do what he needed to do to help himself after three rocky days? mike: no, i do not think he did. the speech read different. we got a little bit different substance but style is the same. the delivery was the same sort hoarse throated, angry, trump. he had worked himself into a lather of sweating. substantively, there were some changes. most ignore the currently, he water down his muslim been -- most significantly, he watered down his muslim ban. he talked about building the wall but there was no mention of mexico. there were only three mentions of china. the tone of it, the length of it, i think it missed the mark. mark: these things are subjective. i am am much more bullish on that speech then you are. i thought he showed people he can be restrained. he framed the election as one about change and argued that the status quo is not good enough and he is the only person that can change it. i thought he showed a certain degree of confidence, more than what some people see in him as arrogance in how he approached the performance of the speech and how he laid out wanting to work with the american people. i thought it ended the convention on a high note. ofk: he made a couple outreach is minority groups. there was some sort of tacit -- but i think these are weak attempts. protecting gays from terrorists is not exactly a bold step for any politician. pollswe will see when the come out. my bet is it struck more of a cord than some people think. a look ahead to the democratic convention that starts monday in philadelphia. you will talk about that and more. ♪ talked a lot all week about the role donald trump's family played in the convention . as well as the praise and the scrutiny they got. let's ask a different question about cleveland. are the other winners of the past week in cleveland? : my winners are going to be law enforcement, both inside and outside the convention. police or a local constable, you have to be feeling good. packs.lked around in it was a little jarring to see 15 of them walking by and dark uniforms and rifles. within seconds, there were people from the street almost on top of them, thanking them and giving them high-fives. thanking them. inside, whether on stage or in the crowd, who lives matter -- b lue lives matter is going to be one of the memorable lines. for all the talk about jobs, the only thing close to detail i heard, if you are a police officer, they want to round up and deport undocumented immigrants and guard the border. the other memorable line, lock her up every of lock up hillary clinton. my losers, ted cruz. miscalculation to decide to go on stage and not endorse trump. this vote your conscience line just isn't, you are not going to get past this crowd. i think people will remember that for years from now. winners is cleveland. my losers are the protesters. there is no doubt cruz is a big loser. cleveland did great. not just law enforcement but the whole city. it will always be crowded and streets closed. there are new restaurants. people could not have been friendlier. host conventions in order to be an advertisement for the city and its attractions. cleveland did great. everybody had a great time. it would not have necessarily been people's first choice. the protesters along with ted cruz, the losers. some much buildup about how they were not just going to disrupt the convention but breakthrough with a message about trump read while there were some protests, they didn't do anything to breakthrough in a way that andnated the messaging offered any sort of rivalry with the republican main event inside. good week for cleveland. bad week for the protesters. mike: i agree with your winners. hillary clinton and her campaign did not take the week off, even though the republicans work in mentioning -- were conventioning. they sent outne, a barrage of counter messaging. fact checking plus tweets reacting throughout the night and social media campaigns mocking trump. week long.at all they sent surrogates to cleveland including the chair of the democratic party and the top opposition research director. how do you think what happened in cleveland is going to impact the democratic convention in philadelphia next week regarding how they conduct themselves? ? e: the democrats seem giddy. they can barely contain their excitement, having their convention next week in philadelphia. right on the heels of the republican convention. they are eager to display their unity, the party unity behind hillary clinton. certainly solid compared to what is happening in the republican party. they know if it is halfway organized, and this goes off halfway according to script, it will look much better compared to the republican convention. what i wonder about is whether a scripted convention from democrats will seem to boring. the press is always looking for something. if they can't run the convention, how can they run the country? although the trump kids got a lot of attention, people are going to see the galaxy of stars, both genuine celebrities as well as political stars. the clintons, the bidens, elizabeth warns and say, wow. cleveland did not have the wattage that philadelphia has. i do find these efforts at bracketing to be largely futile. there are so much of it. both campaigns make the mistake a lot of political organizations do and do not differentiate between something that deserves to breakthrough and feeding the beast. does he reporters often can't tell the difference and treat everything the same. up next, the state of hillary clinton's running mate deliberations. and what it means for traffic and weather and your weekend. ♪ joining us now is ed rogers, a republican strategist whose latest dispatch is titled, the convention was lovely. also with us, the president of emily's list. let's start with you. is tim kaine, today, tomorrow, sunday. what is the biggest risk picking him as a running mate? emily: as she is making her decision, i always knew she would be looking for someone she could work with who understands what needs to get done. has a great deal of experience. there are others in that list that have great experience. kaine ticketnton would be strong. mike: no risks? he is in a very good spot. he has served as senator. he has been a champion for women and families. i have watched him expand and grow as a u.s. senator. he would be great. there are others on that list as well that i think we are all proud to have such a great pool of candidates for the nominee. mike: let me throw that one to you. is there any risk for clinton to pick kaine? pretty safe pick. to republican sent disabilities, he is a soothing -- sensibilities, he is a soothing and fair-minded person. we would much rather he pick someone more wacky and extreme. e: is he qualified to be president? ed: sure he is. mike: is mike pence vilified? -- qualified? stephanie: i have problems with governor pence. he has walked away from women in particular. ke: i know you have disagreements on issues but is he qualified? stephanie: he is governor of indiana. you can think as you wish. you want a president who's going to look out for women and families and he does not meet that. them doing a thank you event. i thought the body language was even better. given that there personalities are not the same, they seem to be off to a good start. ed: i am glad to hear somebody with your experience inks that. what is the chemistry going to be? trump is, you've got to fit trump, not the other way around. to bees an artful soul able to stand there and pull it off. without looking shocked, alarmed, bored. he is an able performer. he is good for trump. he knows the positions, he knows them by heart. he is an excellent carrier of the republican flame. so good. so far, so good. mark: let's say it is tim kaine. they did one event. i do not think the body language was not particularly good. not as electrifying as when she has done offense with cory booker or elizabeth warren. and they be some alchemy if when he is on the ticket that makes it seem a bit more exciting? think senator kaine knows what he is doing. he is a great leader. he has been in this a long time. a mayor and governor, now a senator. hillary isosen, going to be careful about who she chooses. this is all about finding someone she can work with. she can move forward an agenda about an economy that works for everybody. looking at her choices, he definitely rises to the top because of his experience. ike: can you talk more about kainetrategy of what the pick would tell us about strategy. what does it boiled down to for clinton? isphanie: i think that exactly the difference. hillary clinton is not looking for someone who can help in the next four months. she wants someone who will serve as vice president for the next 4-8 years. ed: it is partially about getting someone who can help her height. trump,election is about he loses. he is about staying still, reliable, surefooted. help me hide. stephanie: it is also experience, getting things done. common sense solutions. the choice is clear. you can have a clinton-kaine team, these are teams that are about governing in the future. that really is what we should be looking for an electing a candidate. pence team, that is a long shot of trying to unify a party. ed: this is a change election. she is not the change candidate. is trump the change of the cliff candidate? problem is she is more of the same. that is her challenge. i appreciate you saying trump is going to take us off the cliff. i am worried about it. stephanie: this is about a republican party that has spent the last couple of decades using the rhetoric of racism and sexism -- oh come on, to drive out their base. [indiscernible] stephanie: they chose donald trump to be the nominee. mark: let me ask you one last question. tom vilsack vs. kaine. stephanie: i am from emily's list and we got our nominee, hillary clinton. i trust whoever she chooses. mike: stay with us. ♪ ♪ mark: we're back with two of the chattiest people we have ever had on the program. they were talking during the break. stephanie, what was the highlight in a good way, a good way for the republicans, of the convention in cleveland? stephanie: well, i think so many folks have pointed to donald trump's children and how well they did, particularly his daughter last night. not sure she read the republican platform before she spoke last night, but she was impressive, and i think everybody agrees that that was really the highlight of the week. mark: do you accept the premise that is touted by republicans, if his kids are so great, it speaks well of him? stephanie: it is an interesting point. there are other parents involved. i think what is so hard to imagine is to see his daughter up there and then to hear the rhetoric that comes out of his mouth, particularly as it relates to women. and that is a terrible disconnect and one that is not working for women voters in this country when you still have seven out of 10 who have a dislike for donald trump. mark: take away the pence speech, the trump family speeches, what did you consider the highlight this week? ed: i think the rudy giuliani speech spoke well to the party that needed to be rallied. i think chris christie's speech was ok, better than most. i'm a newt gingrich fan -- his clarity of thought and logic is very compelling. who else did i have to leave off the list? monday night got buried. the sheriff from milwaukee really gave a great presentation that you will hear more of out of other republican surrogates. michael: those are some good points. i think the headlines were different coming out and it seemed like every day there was something different, the chaos on the floor, the plagiarism in on the second day, ted cruz fiasco. some mixed reviews of trump's speech. your latest column you ask, is trump likely to win? definitely maybe. how does donald trump win the election? ed: well, it's a relative race. hillary clinton, i think was the only reason this race is close. if the democrats would have nominated a non-criminal fresh face they would probably have a , double-digit lead right now. if the republicans had nominated a well-adjusted, articulate poised soul, they would probably have a comfortable lead over hillary. so, that is the dynamic we have got. i think a lot of what is propelling trump are the hillary negatives. the convention, one miscue after another, the plagiarism thing -- it should be a case study and political campaign management on how to take a problem between one and 10 that is a one and how do you make it a five over two days? just things like that. one thing after another where -- message discipline. stephanie: campaigns reflect the candidate on the top. and that continues to be a really big challenge for the trump organization. is the candidate on the top. i hear you picked up some of the rhetoric in cleveland. this outrageous position republicans have been spending decades on trying to convince everybody about hillary's background. after 25 years of the propaganda against her, surprise, there are some questions about this, but we believe going in with the unified party that we are going to see a conversation -- >> she has been around a long time. >> -- about voters and about americans need. michael: both of these candidates are lucky to be running against one another. stephanie, some of the high marks that trump got is because the bar is so low for him. are you concerned about the opposite for clinton? does she have to reach a high bar with her convention next week? stephanie: i wish i could say no. but the bar is always extraordinarily high for hillary clinton. and that has just been the case all along the way. i am confident she is ready to take on that challenge. when she has had those moments , she has definitely risen to the occasion. and i have no doubts that she is prepared and ready to go and ready to take on the fight. michael: anything you're looking forward to next week? stephanie: emily's list, we are going to be celebrating a little bit. for 31 years we have been trying to get more democratic women elected. we have had some successes. center senators. this is our first presidential candidate and it is not only that we are excited that it is hillary clinton but there really is a moment, it being the first woman in 250 years take the party for. yeah, i'd say there is a lot of excitement. mark: president clinton has been low late. donald trump last night highlighted some of bill clinton's actions such as nafta. do republicans fear the return of bill clinton in philadelphia? ed: i think sort of suburban republicans do. i think a lot of the base cannot see through the disgust they have for him and see what an able performer he is. he has lost a step or two, haven't we all? his likability, his nimbleness in an interview setting, he has to be the top five in america to this day. i don't underestimate bill clinton. never have. he is a formidable guy. mark: chelsea clinton is speaking at the marquee spot on thursday. bill clinton not speaking on thursday. it seems like they are setting chelsea up to have as a high profile of a public turn as she has ever had. what is your expectation for her? stephanie: chelsea is absolutely ready. in this case it is hard to figure this out, but president bill clinton this week is the husband of the candidate. and i think this is a little bit of a different role, but we have such amazing speakers, so many incredible people. chelsea is absolutely ready. of course we have got president obama, vice president biden. we have senator warren and senator sanders kicking it off monday. so, this is going to be quite a week for the democrats. mark: thank you both. we appreciate the friday chat. >> enjoyed it. mark: coming up next, more on hillary clinton's vp pick and what it means for her convention week next week. if you are watching us in washington, d.c., you can listen to the program on the radio radio. it is on bloomberg 99.1 f.m. in the nation's capital. we will be right back. ♪ michael: with us here in washington, bloomberg politics senior white house correspondent margaret -- and phil rocker, a national political correspondent for "the washington post." margaret, next week in philadelphia, the democratic convention. margaret: that's next week? michael: what are you looking forward to? margaret: i think it is going to be very different from the republican convention. that was a lot of fear, despair, look at everything obama has done wrong. this is going to be -- to borrow a hope and change tactic as much as she can pull that off -- optimistic, unity, we will see all of the democratic all-stars in a way that we really did not see in the republican convention. the obamas will be there, biden, bill clinton and the rising stars that represent the democratic slices of the base. what's bernie sanders going to do? how are the progressives going to react vis-à-vis the running mate? those are the questions. but i think in terms of, like, is the floor going to be full every night? it will have a different flavor than the republican convention. michael: you just are also back from a week in cleveland. is that the contrast you will be looking for next week, or what's at the top of your list for anticipation in philadelphia? phil: i am looking for a change in tone. throughout the week in cleveland, speaker after speaker decried what they see as a country that is falling apart. there was a really heavy focus on immigration, on crime, terrorism, on a lot of sort of negative downbeat, dark images for the country that was punctuated by donald trump's speech last night. i think the democrats are going to try to present a more optimistic vision for the future, but also a more positive take on the state of the country today. i'm sure president obama will rebut some of the critique from trump and talk about how the economy actually is better now than it was in 2009. i'd be looking for some of those tonal differences. one other thing is there was such a focus on the trump family. i think next week in philadelphia we will see many more of the leaders of the democratic party, just as usual a huge roster of senators, governors, of elder statesman. michael: go ahead. margaret: it is and is a because i think we already saw president obama a little bit today try with the mexican president to begin rebutting the trump argument against, in terms of the u.s.-mexico relationship. there is a lot of foreign policy ground to cover next week. mark: hillary clinton at this hour speaking in florida. some speculation that she may announce her running mate, although we do not expect the running mate to appear. so, what is up within "the washington post" newsroom that you can divulge? where do you think he stands? phil: we don't know anything you don't know. we are waiting for the news that could come any minute. all eyes have been on tim kaine, the virginia senator, the former mayor and governor of richmond, he meets all the qualifications that hillary clinton has been looking for. my colleagues have been reporting that he is one of the two top finalists for hillary clinton. the other one to keep an eye on is tom vilsack, former iowa governor. he would be a similar choice, a governing choice. he has a relationship with hillary clinton. there could be a surprise, but that seems unlikely. a lot of democratic sources are telling my colleagues it is down to kaine and vilsack. mark: within the democratic party at high levels people are very familiar with evan bayh and his failure to be on the ticket after being repeatedly considered by different top of the ticket presidential nominees. if tim kaine is passed over again after being the runner-up for barack obama. is that going to do damage to him within the democratic party, his standing? margaret: if the clinton campaign really let tim kaine hang out for all these last few days, with all of these expectations and it is not him, they really would have done him a disservice. look, he is going to be fine no matter what. he has got a sterling reputation. that is what got him in this position twice now. he is 58. he has a long career ahead of him, whatever he wants to do, but it does sound, not just for democrats i talked to but from republicans as well that many longtime political folks just feel that he is the safest, strongest choice for clinton in terms of his ability for some crossover appeal as well as to appeal to most sections of the democratic party. although the trade and the wall street stuff, he may have some work to do as it progresses. mark: we talked early in the show about how the democrats had a big presence in cleveland. the republicans will have one in philadelphia. the national party chair, opposition researchers. and certainly a meta presence, a virtual presence through a lot of press releases. just as a matter of analysis, does that stuff affect the stories we get done by reporters covering the other party's conventions? phil: around the edges. i do not think it has a big impact. i think when you're in cleveland for the republican convention you want to hear what the , republicans have to say. there was a lot for us to cover. there was a lot of news. next week we are going to be focused entirely on the democrats. they can cause some mischief and trouble, the other party, but there is no way that the republican national committee official in philadelphia is going to become the big story. michael: one more for you. kaine has been talked about as a safe pick. he will get out there on the campaign trail. do you have a sense of what we can expect from tim kaine as a candidate, as a vice presidential candidate, what he he actually hits the campaign trail? margaret: i would expect the two of them to go out very soon together. he and her running mate and we expect to see a joint appearance as soon as tomorrow. but we also would expect, after this convention, traditionally, she and her running mate to hit the ground together. we saw a preview with kaine of what he would be like in his appearance with her in the last week or so. deferential, pleasant, a golly shucks guy next door. even if he is talking about policy specific stuff, his role would be kind of to soften her, to make her comfortable and in a leadership role, and yet, between his gender, his religious background and his expertise, to kind of flesh out some of the areas where she could benefit from some help -- across, you know, with men especially, but with all sorts of voters. she seems to be comfortable in his presence. to the extent that they would appear together, that makes a big difference. michael: up next, the trump convention bump. we will get some polling predictions when we come right back. ♪ ♪ mark: when i left cleveland, it was pretty clear a lot of republicans are still feeling that good old convention high after the grand finale of donald trump's nomination party last night. here to explore a variety of things, including how long that euphoria might last and how it could affect poll numbers in the coming days is our bloomberg politics analyst ken goldstein who joins us from washington. so, ken, we have got three cycles in a row, including this one, with back-to-back conventions, which means whatever bounce republicans get can be squashed by hillary clinton and her running mate in their convention. what are the prospects of republicans getting not just an artificial bounce, but something that could endure into august and then the fall? ken: as you said, there's been a change, that convention bounces are real and they do absolutely matter, but i remember the first campaign i covered was 1988. and george h.w. bush went from 7 down to four up after the convention. probably a number you remember, covering clinton in 1992, he went up 14 percentage points after his new york convention. we are not going to see numbers like that. what we saw in the last couple of elections was more numbers in the one or two range. even if it is only a 1, 2 or three range -- people don't pay attention to the polls -- but the polls we are going to see, maybe not here in this weekend because there is not enough time between the republican convention and the start of the democratic convention, but the polls we see after the democratic convention are going to matter and structure this race going for. mark: there is a major disparity between the amount of money spent between clinton and trump and the amount of tv campaign ads run. trump insist that that disparity is not going to hurt him. is he right? ken: i do not get to talk about ads because trump is not spending money on ads. and hillary has spent $60 million over the last couple of months. it is good news-bad news here. if i was the trump campaign, i would say, look, i have been outspent. i literally had nothing on the air. a couple million from the nra. there does not seem to be much of an impact. if you are going to see an of that, you are going to see the impact of ads when one side is up and the other side is completely down. we have seen times when it matters. if you remember, it was a different time. conventions were at the end of the summer in 2012, but mitt romney unexpectedly -- inexplicably went down during the week of the republican convention. a lot going on. it is clear that is when some major numbers moved in the 2012 race and romney never got it back after that. mark: kind of crazy with a poll-mad media world that a big event occurs like last night and people like us speculate wildly, was the speech good or not, and there is very little data to back it up. cnn did an instant poll of people who watched the speech and asked the question, for instance, a bunch of questions, reaction to trump's speech, very positive, 57%. they asked people, will the speech move the u.s. in the right direction? after the speech, 73% said yes. as compared to before, 60%. the trump campaign has been touting this poll all day. based on the methodology, and comparable questions in the past, is this poll good news for the trump campaign? ken: it is no news for the trump campaign. listen, if you are taking a sample of people who watched the speech, what sort of people watched the speech? it was not undecided voters. it was people who are fans, and fans of trump or fans of the republican party. and so, if you did not get that number, i might even be a little bit disappointed if i was trump that number was not even higher given the population that was likely sampled there. instant polls are always dangerous because you are not exactly sure who you are talking to and you do not do a lot of the callbacks. but an instant poll, like a debate, i would put more into an -- than an instant poll after a convention speech which draws a particular person. mark: the risk that trump does not come out of this convention with a bounce, a risk that he flat lines here? ken: listen, bounces rely on having one-sided, completely positive conventions. if your discussion for much of the show, there is debate about whether it is all good news for him. also bounces also tend to be , more pronounced. when people are learning something new. listen, we have two candidates, trump and hillary clinton, who are pretty well known, which could mitigate the bounce and aren't particular well loved. so, you need someone there is -- someone for whom there is potential for love and not well-known. mark: ken goldstein. brilliant and succinct as always. thank you we will be right back. ♪ mark: tonight on bloomberg hot, tasty fresh news. donald trump has plans to form super pacs to end the political careers of ted cruz and john kasich. all the latest on hillary clinton's search for a running mate. "bloomberg west" the ceo of pandora. until monday, when we see you from philadelphia, we say sayonara. ♪ ♪ narrator: the challenges facing our world are growing all the time. we build stronger economies with equal opportunities for all. how do we build a sustainable world for generations to come? cities androtect our harness the power of technology for our common benefit? good at has always been forward thinking. in this series, using the latest bloomberg research and analysis,

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