Up noorn more than 20 . People going towards the stocks. The question, is there going to be a potential cut in dividends. I dont believe so and utilities have ban great performer the last number of years. The hunt for yields is going to continue and the oneyear to 1. 48. Look, in utilities, theyre a special sector, because theyre a regulated entity. Theyll get enough to pay those dividends. See a massive recession, depression that will shut down terms of need for electricity and so forth. They can do fine. Tickle the energy cost coming down. Look at materials, however, stocks like php, i dont see how they maintain div gends going forwa dividends Going Forward. More worried about that. Energy could come down more. Basically okay. Theyll come down. You still need dividends. Telecos . Who knows . Major disruption there. And in some respects, joe, try to get what could be coming. Gdp report, disappointing, business dropoff. People wondering if that forecasts a recession. If business spending capex drops off, whos to say dividends arent going to be next . I dont think dividends collectively are going to see contraction. I do think as a strategy looking forward as youve correctly pointed towards, you could look at dividends and identify who are dividend growers. If you take the dividend yield 1. 9 expected next year for the s p to grow 2. 1 who will grow dividend gee yond that . A couple names i could mention. Look at a name like cisco, taking its dividend up significantly. Look at a name like extra space storage, and then amgen. Three names i would identify that will grow dividend. Thats the right strategy to look towards Going Forward. So far this year in the quarter, the street is not rewarding what it rewarded in years past. Bibacks. Theyre under performing now. It is about growing your dividend, as you point out, about Rewarding Companies that are going to have higher capex, higher r d spend. If you find it you want to own it. Josh, i wonder if some of those types of stocks may fall out of favor if you think that their capex spending, investment in their business is going to drop off . If you look at the tech rally. Lets just sake that. Joe mentioned cisco. Yield of 3. 4 . Qualcomms of you 25 year to date. The stock performance. Hp up 20. Ibm, 17. Cisco 13. All have healthy dividend yields. Its part of the allure about why investors buy those stocks. Yes. Do you have to now consider that if the economy may be softening that those dividends could be cut . The names you just flashed on the screens have good coverage ratios. In a tech sector probably id worry less than some of the areas steve weiss mentioned, but whats fortunate to understand is the u. S. Economy and the stock market is a reflection of that. You have must better breadth of different sectors than you get in some foreign markets. Look at even the major developed countries, theyre either highly concentrated in banks or in mining activities. The u. S. Stock market is much different, and i think its a lot safer. Id be much more concerned with the valuations people are paying for things like utilities than i would be worried about an underlying dividend cut or something of that nature. When you think of things from that perspective you probably dont have as much risk of a dividend cut and you probably should be a little bit more worried that, why am i paying 19 times for a south new Jersey Company that converts coal and natural gas into electricity . Maybe thats not the best, most productive use, even though its got a nominally high yield. Goes back, pete, really, circle back to the conversations we were having many weeks ago, in wondering whether the high dividend sectors, utilities and telecoms and then the etfs that have done well, dvy, example, near a 52week high. If those fall out of favor, a prospect of yields riding, what, 1. 50 today or right about there. And why those stocks continue to do well. Partly a conversation about rotation, where you think youll get the best bang for your buck in your portfolio for the remaining six months of the year. First thing, never, ever buy a stock because of the dividend yield. A lot of people have done that. Rewarded because theyve been in utilities and telecom. Most foolish thing in the youre. Youre lucky now, i dont think historically, josh would no better the historic side of it all, look at the fundamental story. Right . Talk about it all the time. Look at valuation and then growth and then look for the dividend yield. If you get all three of those thats a home run what youre looking for. Look at pharma. Sorry to interrupt. Please. Why have i been in the names last three, four years. Not the yields. That the kicker. Its because of growth, pipelines, technology, cisco. When the brexit happened we talked what should we look at now . One of my favorite names was sisk pope getticisc cisco. Breaking ot. 52week high and still a 3. 5 yield, wow, youre in the right name. But you can see a tech stock, seen it before. You could see any of these stocks trade down 10, 15, 20 in a day, and thats your yield for four years. Why you dont buy for yield. Exactly right. In this environment, particularly uncertainly of the election coming up, ceos arent spending, i expect to see a moratorium on capex Going Forward, saw in the last report, gdp, youll see more of that. Not spending catpex you think theyre hoarding cash and saving the cash . Absolutely. Hold cash because, cataclysmic economy, hold it for m a and also maybe increase dividends or buybacks Going Forward. Our question sort of is, what if that Dividend Growth stagnates and senior economics reporter Steve Liesman has done a lot of work on that question since we saw business spending, capex fall in fridays good p report. We know oil. Well documented. What else are you looking at to try to get clues to this very question were asking . This is not a new phenomenon. These quarters in a row capex declined in the gdp account. Whacked off a point out of. 1. 2. Would have been a 1. 7. Oil, scott said, the big one. That, by the way, affects the other areas to the right. Those not quite effective. Computers flat to nothing. Thats a price adjustment. Price to computers fall. Adjust prices, still falling. Manufacturing down 7 . Inventories, this is an interesting question. Some people see this as a lack of confidence on the part of companies with the consumer have to take the stuff off the shelves, or something that building inventories is growth in our future. Transportation down 3. 1 . We have a lot of data coming up this week and one of the things if companies are cutting back on capex, the dividend question comes out. Not just the dividend question. Is it an employment question as well . You have two school of the thought. One is, yes, employment could follow the ending, decline in kpap e capex. Given salaries are meeg are and havent increased, relative price of an employee versus a new machine maying more balanced than in the past. I dont think you can make the distinction and dismiss energy. Weve argued on this show. I dont any ythink you dismi not diskniss. Well documented. We already know. Not only well documented but going to lead the tendencies for capex Going Forward. So oil, as were talking, approaching 40. Everyones question is, oil rolling back over again . Oil rolls back over again it has a distinctive impact, not on the sector but all the other sectors. I agree. Does anybody at this desk think exxon cuts dividend . No. Chevron cut its dividend . I dont think so. One of the reasons people recommend those stocks my view on oil is that we get through the summer then see a gradual move higher. I dont think we go past 60, 55 or 60. I think, though, its important to recognize two 24 k things. Problem with Business Investment is a real problem but maybe overstated by secular things that have nothing do with the health of the economy. For instance, if you want to look at overall Business Investment. Its only up 8 over the 2008 peak. And thats obviously very unfortunate. However, when you strip out commercial building, i. E. , building new Retail Stores nobody wants, its better. Up 19 , thanks to things like r d, increased Capital Equipment spend. Apple is a really important exempt you have have growth, investment, big dividend and buyback all at once with a good economy. Apple spend money on r d, upped the dividend, the buyback these things, doesnt have to be an either or. Over the last year or ten years what do you really want to talk about . You were talking the last year. Okay. Investing for the future for the last year. Upping what theyll spend. Investment will yield return. All right. So call me in a few years. Well talk about it then. Their out of control, scott. Out of control. Invest . Not my point. My point, they should and return capital to a decorum here . A little, scott. I kind of like the lack of. Unfortunately, there are no guarantees. If every piece of r d pays off. Nice to see a company that can do it all. Slice and dice numbers. Not slicing and dicing, adding. You did. Take out Retail Stores. The point, economy grown at 1. 2 . Who denies that. No. Good. Steve . To me its its simpler than youre making out. If stock prices nice bailout. End up being higher, stock prices, profits turn around, rebound in capex. I worry about the idea were not putting the technology and the tools in the hands of employees and workers to be more efficient, and that has a detrimental impact on potential future growth rate. Kevin oleary, you know, is the chairman of o shares, resident shark. If a shock doesnt have a dividend hes typically not interested at all. Kevin, are you there . Im here. How are you thinking about the kind of conversation that were having around the desk today, looking at capex, looking at signs, warning signs, if you will, for the market if dividends end up at risk . Thats a great discussion, but, you know, dividends are not johnny come lately favorites. They have provided 71 of the returns in the s p over the last 40 years in multiple cycles of capex expenditures over wide extended periods of Economic Growth and slowdowns. End of the day, dividends are the mothers milk of investing, period. We can have a great discussion about, are we paying too much more dividends in this cycle at 19, 202, 2 pe. The fact is, end of the day you dont have to pay that. You can find companies that are servicing our domestic economy from europe, glaxosmithkline, roche, nestle and pay a discount and still get active exposure to our best of the worst, i guess. You know, we dont have the Fastest Growing economy. At least the consumers in good shape. I argue end of the day you sdroebt to own tallcoe or too utilities. Two things to think about in this cycle. Number one, if the company is using debt to make tain or grow dividends like utilities, simply dont buy those. Those are expensive. You can find lots of Companies Growing dividends with free cash flow. And number two, youre getting a free option on this market i want to remind everybody about im personally excited. A 50 50 chance the next administration will reduce the capital. 900 billion on u. S. Balance sheets coming home, boys. Whats going to happen to a lot of that . Its going to be paid out in dividends. Thats at least a 50 50 chance. I dont care who you like in the election. You like hillary, you like trump. I dont even care about that. Show me the one that will allow us to repatriate our capital and pay it back out. I like domestics that pay dividends. A hi high probability it continues. Apple, only 17 billion domestically. 200 million internationally. If somebody, mr. Trump, perhaps, or mrs. Hillary clinton says, lets repatriate in tax reform, 200 billion coming home. Theyll send some to me if im a shareholder. If that happened, maybe i would buy apple stock. Dont tone yet. What makes you think, this is josh, either president ial candidate will be able to get that done given the intranssglins congress, unwillingness to really pass anything . Even if donald trump was really for that or hillary somehow were convinced that would be helpful what makes you think congress can actually make it, you know, an actual law . Josh, dont be a debbie downer. This next administration. I hope youre right, by the way. This next administration i hope im right too. The last Administration Spent all Political Capital on health care reform. Everybody on both sides of the aisles knows now weve got to fix americas taxes. Theyre a mess. Were not competitive. Get a lower tax rate in canada. That place is as left as it comes. I dont know, kevin. I dont think it happens. Read the oped of the wall street journal this weekend what they point out neither candidate is speaking to this critical issue were talking about right now. Which is that neither hillary nor trump has much of a plan to change corporate taxes. In fact, both of their potential presidencies here is a reason for companies to cut back, add brexit to the election uncertainty and then the complete uncertainty about what happens afterwards, that you have Hillary Clinton talking about higher taxes on the wealthy as well as business and donald trump talking about protectionism and terrorists. Theres a reason by itself for companies to i read the article. Talk about reality in the next 99 days before we pull the trigger. Both parties will move towards the center. In the case of trump, trump is listening to kudlow, one of our contributors talking about progrowth strategy reducing corporate to 15 and repatriation tax of only 10 . If 23any of that policy goes in the platform youll hear the speeches. Steve knows this is coming. The Detroit Economic Club well hear trump talking about this. Now its about policies. I dont want to be that pessimistic. Both parties have to go centrist. Talk about trump tearing up nafta, its not going to happen. Hell enforce. His middle ground will be that. Im always an optimist. I simply look at balance sheets. Making a 5 return in the market, half comes from dividends. Sec yield 1. 9. You can mine S P Companies up to 2. 9 dividend yield and not overweight utilities or fell te. Go overseas, too. You think Dividend Growth will slow. Its already slowing. Negative, last three quarters. Continue to slow or just refute what the data has already shown . Because that could potentially change the kinds of stocks you would want to be invested in for the next 99 days or whatever time frame you happen to be focused on. Totally agree with that. Do i own john deere . No, because i think theyll have problems. But look at phrma. Look at consumer, j j, kimberly clacclark hitting it f the park and were sitting around getting depressed. 46 of sales in other markets. Not just domestic and become really good at becoming productive and cutting costs. Giving Corporate America ed credit to go back to the old days in the 50s. Stock didnt pay a dividend, couldnt get a grandmother to buy it. Thats not a bad thing. Last word. Thanks for spending time with us. I want to touch on the market. Watching a selloff sort of accelerate on wall street. Steve, thanks to you as well. Have you noticed oil could break 40 in a matter of moments and the s p 500 not surprisingly after hitting a new intraday high today has all but rolled over within the last several minutes. At 18 minutes past 12 i clock he 12 00 on the east coast. Down some six points hitting another alltime intraday high as were watching oil, and maybe someone wants to comment on that. Oils barely holding on to 40. I mean, you sort of, safety, joe and i talked about before the show that oil has been delinked from the markets. Well, momentarily it is, but then the machines kick in, the quants kick in. You see the linkage come back. With the vix where it is a fool not to buy protection in the market at these levels. Then you have people like gunlock, in an interview saying sell everything. Nothing look goods here, or Goldman Sachs saying that equities are underweight for the next three months. The markets got so much uncertainty Going Forward into the election. Pick your time frame when you want to sell. Right . But when you sell everything, you pay taxes. You got to know where your tax base is before you pull the trigger. We got to pay bills. Go away two minutes and come right back. Lots more ahead on the Halftime Report. Announcer thinking about how to profit from backtoschool sales. Bold calls today. Danas Shopping List is next. Plus in two trading days weve seen two very big moves for biotech. One up, one down. How do you score and stay safe at the same time . Scott wapnerened a the halftime gang are back in two minutes. For much more on the risk and eward for dividend stocks go to cnbc. Koch pro. Announcer the Halftime Report is sponsored by fidelity investments. [ beep ] but youll be glad to see it here. Fidelity where smarter investors will always be. If only the signs were as obvious when you trade. Fidelitys active trader pro can help you find smarter entry and exit points and can help protect your potential profits. Fidelity where smarter investors will always be. Welcome back. Theres jamie dimon up at 1 00, 40 minutes from now, exclusive interview with the head 6 jpmorgan, chairman an ceo. Wilfred frost is doing that. One of the closely watched charts of the day. Crude oil. Look that. 40. 10. Barely holding on to 40. Down 3. 5 . Joe, down 7 of the last 8 days. Important to measure the sentiment as it relates to how port 23folio managers respond T Investments in energy equities. Coming into the beginning of the year tremendous pressure in the high yield price and on the stot pricing of oil. Portfolio managers using equities to almost be an atm, to be sellers on that side. That sentiment dramatically changed, and i think right now when you look at positioning and energy equities, calling for a bottom you need sow see the liquidation in the energy equities. Its easy as oil rallied towards 50 for a p. M. To overweight energy. Arg weighting in energy of still below 7 . 20 go overweight is very easy. Even the material space is less than 3 . There again would you buy a name in this space today . I need to see right now in the energy and material space further liquidation on the equity side to find a bottom. Too many people overweighted it to 50 and just kind of sat frozen and held on. Down 18 . Crude over the last two months. Threemonth low now, citi, maybe nearing a bottom . I dont know. Do you buy, pete, any Energy Stocks today . Sure. If i see something that pops up on my screens and falls under the right categories i absolutely would. Valero only thing hanging in. My favorite, my goto valero and not as damaging when you look at exxon and chevron and connick oh and names beat up today. We talked about last week. Technical and xle. I own the xle calls in january and josh does as well, maybe in the actual xle itself. It broke down, either case, one it broke down harks s to find support and could move to the down side in a rapid pace. Ovx, moving up. Still in the range. Breaks through 48, you have to pay attention. Josh, xle . Look at rsi. 37, 38 right now. Say oversold to 30. More work to the downside to be done. Possibly move in crude below 40. Not the end of the world. You may not get as oversold in february. Scott, these stocks on a yeartodate basis down as much as 15 rallied up as much as 15 . The truth, like always, somewhere probably in the middle. Look for rsi down in the low 30s for a broad bounce in the sector and then pick your favorites. I would err to the side of better balance sheets, larger companies, more financial flexibility, because youre probably 23409 getting a crude rally back to 100 anytime soon a. Name for me . Favorite name, exxon and chevron. Okay with refiners but less of a play on crude prices than they are on spread. Tougher, adds a third dimension into the mix im probably not the right guy to talk about it to. Look not as a trade more a longer trade investment. You like 66 . Phillips 66. A lot, brebt spread relative to ti, lack of investment in the north Sea Oil FieldsGoing Forward. I think thats more of an investment right now and i would caution i would not be looking at energy right now as a trading opportunity. You could have done that back in february and march. I think you were looking at energy now, you have to have the fundamental belief youre going to be better off a year from now, because i think in the next couple of months, i dont think energys will reward you in the capacity it did a couple months ago. Just look at last point. Not that long ago, look, just get through the oversupply, the storage, and then be okay. Id like at mlps, off a little. Still near highs but well off the alltime highs. Thats yield. I would stay away from the well head, refiners, Sunoco Logistics or tllp, big yield still. Ready for a street fight . Coming up, a sell call and buy call today on harley, who has it right . The guys on the desks are ready to roll. Plus, a tale of two bioteches in in two days, one crater, one soar. How can you protect yourself while still making money . Trade school is in session, when we come back. Els guests connected. Businesses count on communication, and communication counts on centurylink. All right. Back. 12 positi 12 30 on the east coast. S p and dow near the lows of the day. Oil slid above 40 a barrel. Could that spot. Crude down nearly 4 . 40, steve, give a quick comment. Real, real quick. Holding 40, for crude. There it goes. There, its below. Look, key psychological levels and youd never know. So up money has gone into Quantitative Strategies and macro strategies triggered by quants, you just dont know. I dont know whats triggered, clearly, psychological level, and you dont know when it will drop below that. Dont know where it will end. I want to see if it build higher, bounces or goes lower. And jackie dee aangelis watcg this closely, i know. Yeah. Testing the 40 level and waiting to crack it. Ke did it now intraday. Happening now is a concern about the supply glut were facing not only in crude oil also in gasoline, and the other side of it is the demand picture. Of course, demand has been robust this summer because of summer driving, but were starting to see that taper off as we get towards the end of august, and people are really concerned that there wont be enough demand to work through the inventorienventories. If thats the case, a lot of people on the street got crude oil wrong saying wed see a rebalance second half of the year. If that doesnt happen, could be more pain pup mentioned, we see crude prices come down it impacts the stock market because of the big company the weighted on these indices. The other side of this, the fact nobody is talking about International Production right now, because theyre so focused on the u. S. Remember, the saudis are continuing to pump to keep up with the iranians who want to get their share back. The second half of the year could create another picture where weve sort of got a war here, a game of chicken. Whos really going to start to cut production . Thanks for jumping on with us watching that key 40 level and seeing if crude can bounce back above and that means for the space. Jackie covered that all morning and will watch it closely as welling. Sue herera has latest news headlines. Busy day in the markets and im sure elsewhere as well. Youre right it is, scott. What else is happening this hour. Florida governor rick scott announcing ten more people in the state have contracted the zika virus likely from mosquito bites. That brings the total to 14. And hes calling upon the cdc to activate an Emergency Response team to assist the state in combating the virus. A twohour police chase ending on a residential deadend street in san diego county. Officers approaching the stopped vehicle, weapons drawn, yanking the driver out of the car before slapping handcuffs on her. Health officials are warning consumers no the to eat raw cookie dough or batter following General Mills massive recall of about 45 Million Pounds of flour. The suspicious, e. Coli contamination. 46 people in 21 states sickened. And 150 urban mountaineers hanging on ropes from a bridge in sao paulo forming a suspended human image of the olympic rings. The rings remained in place some 40 minutes with cars passing beneath honking horning ands a cheering crowd. Thats the news. Back to you. Thanks, sue. Biogen ionus, covering biotech, meg joins us from philadelphia. Hi, meg. Hi, scott. Good news for biogen and ionus. A phase three trial met the studial goal and plans to apply for approval of its drug. Its a devastating disease, the most common jeanetgenetic cause death among infants. Most kids with the most severe form of the disease dont survive past 2 years. And there are currently no approved treatments for it right now. These data came earlier than expected. Supposed to come in the first half of next year. Not only is it a positive trial, earlier than people expected. Analysts are pegging potential sales of this drug gets approved from 1 billion to 3 billion in peak annual revenue. Good news here, scott. Thanks. Look at tale of the, the tape of the last few days we talked about these stocks. Its all about risk. In this case, the reward. First of all, you have to classify biotech into emerging biotech, companies that dont have any revenues, except for maybe some milestone payments by big phrma and mature bio tech, amgens, gileads, have revenues and products on the market. Unless youre really a pro, you cant own emerging biotechs. I own one, legs cut out from under them when the fda said we wont approve the drug, went down. Now 25. Commission will do it. How much, josh i think owns amgen, pete owns gilead. Good companies. Amgen may be the next big phrma. I like biotech, liked it since the bottom. Actually invested in a biotech fund and im not worried about the president ial election in terms of them both agreeing drugs are overpriced. I worry about the valiants they made money off of it. Overall the secretary heartor h in the economy. Reset, pick them carefully. I bought the amgen breakout and people get carried away with the terminology. The difference between biotechs and phrma simply, phrma is chemistry based, biotech you have Companies Like bristol whos new drugs look more and more like biotechs and Companies Like gilead that you dont know which direction theyre going to go depending on what acquisition they do. Dont focus so much on that classification but price action trading. Amgen breakout looks as good as many ive seen in a long time. And at a sixmonth high for not the one you want to buy. You like the xpi. I say that, far more diversification and you get a much more one tilt small cap, other tilts mega. Overall exposure you see moves in up moves, bristol mire, lets not make a mistake. Essentially a biotech, bio pharma. Innovative, and incredible partnerships across its map with pharma and biotech, why we see the stoct react the way it was. Look at growth in lilly. Amgen numbers phenomenal and bristol meyers, extraordinary numbers last week. Next, names sha to be in your portfolio ahead of the backtoschool shopping season. More on the Halftime Report is up next. Announcer follow us on twitter halftimereport for instant breaking news and analysis. Make healthcare more personal with patientcentric, digital innovations; from selfmonitoring devices that can interpret personal data and enable targeted care, to Cloud Platforms that invite providers to collaborate with the patients they serve. Thats why over 90 of the top 25 Global Pharmaceutical Companies are turning to cognizant. 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Together, were building a better california. Hey there. Im melissa lee. Coming up on power lunch, exclusive interview with Jpmorgans Jamie Dimon and keeping an eye on oil. Crude hitting a 3. 5 month low, the top oil man tells us where he sees things headed from here. Later, while ubers deal with didi is yet another big win for china. First, back over to the Halftime Report. Melissa, thank you so much. Welcome back, by the way. I want to show you shares of ge. Its about to make a round trip. It had a streak of ten straight up sessions. Now its on pace for nine it straight losing sessions. There is ge. 31. 14. Josh brown, i know you watch this one. Yeah. You own it. Well and talk about it often. I own it. What do you make of the round trip . The range is within 1. 50. Its really much ado about nothing. Stocks finding support at the rising 50 day, will be fine. Only issue with what the company has to say now is in the oil and gas segment. About 11 of revenue. 7. 5 operating profit. Down almost 40 year over year, but the world is aware its been tough to sell equipment in the oil and gas space. So the issue is not about whats gone on in the last couple quarters. Its about what the future might look like. I think expectations have come down tremendously for oil and gas within the ge portfolio of businesses and probably i wouldnt say the best is yet to come but the better is yet to come. I dont think a year or two years from now were looking at the same weakness, unless oil is likes 15ds or 20 a barrel. So i think if you can look through the valley, not worry so much about the second and first quarters oil and gas revenue, the rest of the business is on fire. Well continue to be so. All the best growth markets. Ge addresses today. Lets do the call of the day now. It is with dana telsey. Bullish on retail names, a note, compelling entry point for elle brands. Top pick among Traditional Department stores is. Jack penjcpenney. Good to you have on, dana. Thank you for having me. Make the case for elle bral first. News is out. Reducing promotions, getting rid of bathing suits. They are reducing exposure to apparel. You have going on, a brand that in three to five years from now is going to be stronger than it is today. Were going through a time period where theyre cleaning out inventory. The Pink Division does well. Bralets, lower priced. Own a brand, arent many, increased market share eve an year from now, l brands. You dont get a lot of time to buy it. Down over 20 and still paying a special dividend in 2016. If your name is not amazon are you feeling any better about the overall landscape of retailers with with discussion today . Look what Mall Developers reported. Simon properties or tangor factory outlet, traffic improved, business improved shins june. You saw in retailers reporting their june sales results. Business improved in the second half of june. I am feeling better, because i have easier comparisons, cleaner inventory levels and complementary physical with digital. You took me to the mall. Take me to jcpenney before i let you run. What i think about. Jack jcpenney sashgs for ra in the stores helping to drive the comp. Expansion of categories and ebitda target potentially will be raced. I think overall a stock with the best comps in the Department Store universe. Dana, always good to talk to you. Thanks for coming on. Thank you for having me. Dana telsey, telsey advisory group. Favorite names she loves, lulu and tjx. The problem with both, hitting 52week highs specifically with lulu. Start to look at where its priced now. Price per earnings now. Starts to get much more difficult time and time again to look at this name as it pushes closer to 80 a share. Lulu up 50 year to date. A reason why you still might be excited about it. The menswear, absolutely going for that as well as children. If they can start to make headway there, scott, and push into the under armours and nikes of the world. Huge for them. We know what theyre category is exactly now. And done a phenomenal job talking about that, pete did, Revenue Growth consistently comes in strong on a doubledump it basis. Additionally a name like dollar tree, historic highs again. Seems thats the retailer is gravitating towards now, is the discounts. Thats what the consumer wants to spend towards, and youre seeing the results. I mean, the Revenue Growth on dollar tree is phenomenal. All right. Next up, more on oil breaking below 40 a barrel. One oil watcher. And going to join us. Announcer Halftime Report with scott wapner is the place for marketmoving interviews. You dont call a company a sewer because the company made a mistake. Announcer real money we are short both tesla and solar city. Announcer real debates. People think that globalization has hurt businesses. Its not. It is technology thats hurt businesses. Competition is a good thing. I dont want to go back to a single marketplace. Announcer the most profitable hour of the trading day. I love this show all i do is get to tweet about the show im on the show. This is the greatest moment of my life announcer the Halftime Report. Weekdays at noon eastern. Welcome back. Big story. Crude breaking below 40. Founding partner. Welcome back. Scott, how are ya . Your target now . 35. 24. The flow last april. Whats driving it . Is it just as simp as the supply demand picture has not really improved perhaps as much as people think . I think thats pretty much exclusively it. There was a thesis around the market that the market was coming into balance. Supply and demand balance. That inventories of crude oil and Refined Products would get drawn down, and what has happened is that while gasoline demand, for example, in the u. S. Has been spectacular, refinery output of gasoline has been even more spectacular. We were incredibly built gasoline inventories throughout the summer driving period rather than draining them down like i think a lot of folks saw what happened, and now the crush is , you know, now theres no escaping even more increases in gasoline. And then if refiners shut down now to try to drain the swamp, crude oils going to backup again. So courting a bit of a vicious cycle at the moment. The bottom line you have a glut of oil and refined product here in the united states. Its not just here in the united states. For example, in the amsterdam, rodder dam hub in europe, record gasoline inventories. Diesel fuel market in singapore is swamped. There are tank useers out there data futures higher price lock in on arbitrage return. And chinese refiners are not shutting down. I think sort of the surprise wave of Refined Products on the market here, and they just got approval from the Central Government to market the ramp ups. There are already record export levels john, its joe. Just real quick, a lot of the expectations are for the Fourth Quarter oil will be back above 50. Do you agree with that or disagree . I cannot g there based upon the oil balance sheet. When you look at the supplies of everything, the production trends, continued battle between saudi arabia and iran, i cant get there. Maybe next year. Im not a perm bull on this but my recovery keeps getting pushed back quarter by quarter by quarter. John, thanks for calling in. I was going to point out definition of line in the sand is what youre looking at on the screen right there. I mean, it was right at 40. 00. Theres an amazing battle going on between a chicago computer and new York Computer right now. Serious. True story. Textbook definition of line in the sand today as oil desperately trying to stay above 40. Well see where it goes over the next couple hours time, but thats going to be something certainly to watch. Coming up on Halftime Report, the thing our experts are watching you might be missing today. Well do that when we come back. Where, in all of this, is the stuff that matters . The stakes are so high, your finances, your future. How do you solve this . You dont. You partner with a firm that advises governments and the fortune 500, and, can deliver insight person to person, on what matters to you. Morgan stanley. Welcome back to Halftime Report. Our resident options expert Pete Najarian seeing unusual trading activity in mobileeye. Scott, normally when we talk about unusual activity we seem to focus more and more seems like on the calls, this time its the puts. Mobileye had this extraordinary run, starting to pull back today. About a 4. 5 move to the downside. Somebody came out and started buying september puts out there. The september 44 puts bought very aggressively. Paying about 1. 38 up to 1. 48 on these puts looking for downside. They offset some of that by actually buying those and selling the 37 puts. Buying the 34, selling the 37s, gets the cost rate down a little bit and actually looking for significant downside from here. Are you in on that . I am. Im going to be in these, im in the septembers as well. Ill probably be in at least a month. All right. Pete, thanks. Some unusual activity in mobileye. Coming up, three hours left to go, we have final trades coming up next. Whether its connecting one of the worlds most innovative campuses. Or bringing wifi to 65,000 fans. Businesses count on communication, and communication counts on centurylink. [rock music playing] announcer dont let e. Coli mosh with your food. An estimated 3,000 americans die from a foodborne illness each year. So, always separate raw meat from vegetables. Keep your family safe at foodsafety. Gov welcome back to Halftime Report. In just two minutes time dont miss our cnbc exclusive interview with j. P. Morgan chairman and Ceo Jamie Dimon. Wilfred frost doing that interview. Im certain theyll hit on the markets talking about oil is a story in itself. Theres a look barely hanging onto 40 a barrel, briefly breaking below that level just a short time ago down nearly 4 today. Weve had this conversation more broadly than just oil is the markets overall impact to Falling Crude once again is what . Again, it goes back to energy equities, which i believe right now the street has a higher weighting to relative to having an equal weight. You hear a lot of numbers thrown around in terms oil could go to this price, that price, very difficult to predict the price of oil. Trust me, i spent many years losing a lot of money doing it. The thing thats important as it relates to oil is on a longer term basis where we began the year 37. And think about that swing area as kind of like a fence. Getting back below 37 longer term would be a problem. Is the importance of closing above 40, steve, mean anything . I think today psychologically its important. Keep in mind you had a couple negative pmi numbers. China again one of their pmi numbers was negative. So its the extent that investors or traders believe thats indication of a weakening global economy, then the importance of it picks up to a much greater extent and will drag the markdown with it to the extent they believe it may be technical and that it will bounce back, get through it and leakage will be less. We will continue to watch that ever so closely. So will power lunch. By the way, it begins now. And thank you so much, scott. Im melissa lee. Heres whats on the menu at this hour. One of the biggest pow players on wall street, j. P. Morgan chairman, president and Ceo Jamie Dimon minutes away from exclusive interview here on power lunch. Two of Elon Musk Companies joining forces in a stock deal, but will tesla get burned by solarcity . And stick around to find out. Power lunch starts right now. Nchtsz welcome everybody to power lunch. Welcome back, melissa. We