Dow is down 28 points. S p 500 down 11. That is nearly. 5 doc, theyre selling the teches again. Banks are trying to get a bid post fed they look like they dont know which way they want to go. A lot of the teches got bids, too. Youre right they were under pressure hard today. And that selling pressure, i expected it to continue for longer than maybe 15 minutes but it didnt. I mean when you look and we didnt get we couldnt break the 50 day in, for instance, amazon and you look at the other support levels for alphabet, even on the downgrade today or facebook these broke but then they held basically right there at some key Technical Levels and we saw v shape bottom on that nerld in other words, the money did come pouring into the names. The one that caught my eye is netflix for other reasons because filling a gap, i believe. Ill talk to josh about that boy, i was impressed about this i expected, judge, there to be more of a bloodbath based on what we saw in the premarket and the early selling we saw here today. Interesting, weiss. I mean doc makes a good point. Fed hikes rates. Dealing with the Balance Sheet word that president himself is under investigation for possible obstruction of justice and here we have a stock market with a dow thats down 27 points. To america its almost like a game of russian roulette which negative news head shrine going to be the one that breaks the camels back is the one that is going to shoot the market dead i think that it keeps piling up. If you had if any reasonable investor with any time line of history had said heres what were going to have and list go through the litany of things including what happened with the president and a 60 disapproval rate and all the promises not come to fruition and then the fed piling on and doing nothing unexpected, they were going to lower the Balance Sheet. You say, wow, i have to go to cash i have to buy bonds. However, you have a ten year yielding 10. 15 . You have to be whistling by a graveyard not to be cautious i havent bought anything today. Ive got a decent amount of cash i didnt add any cash. Kunlt n you cant not be conserved. Where is risk right now it says that were continuing a trading event which kurd since last frid occurred since last friday and youre looking at the risk associated with overweight groaning john mentions today the qs today which i was short this morning went down to 139. 49. Last fridays low was 137. 47 trading many the marketplace and you see that pattern, it doesnt break below friday low, you get the response you gaent the qs are 138. 25 the market very technically driven the s p 500 itself, the s p 500, the high for today is matched right against the low from yesterday. This is not a longer term event. This is a trading vent i think people need to understand that. Okay. Carrie, the president himself just said moments ago very good numbers on gdp are coming or some variation of that yesterday janet yellen said the economy was doing pretty well. But what if i told you that because of the investigations and all this other overhang that its going to be in d. C. For a number of months, were all expecting that what if i told you no part of the agenda is going to happen anywhere close to what people think . Anywhere close sure. But the economy is what the president says it is, what do you do in the market under that scenario i think this is business as usual. Weve been living under the cloud of well maybe theres going to be reregulation its going hurt some industries and help some industries meanwhile, that hasnt happened. So were chugging along as an economy, unemployment is 4. 3 . The companies that are the fangs or other Growth Companies thash, they are the numbers. Interest rates are low that helps Growth Stocks its boosting the market you cant use bonds as a substitute right now you get nothing for it so i think its steady and here we go and dont pay too much. So, josh, do you buy stocks under the scenario that i just laid out to carrie you get nothing from the agenda because of all of the noise but the economy is okay. And they continue to produce do you buy stocks under that environment . Yeah, because its important to remember in a the rally that were in the midst of arguably started in july. Thats before we knew that who would be the president its before we knew about a lot of policies that seem to have just kind of been made up along the way. Between then, the election and now. So like i dont really think that a lot of what weve seen so far is based on economic policy. Thats been much more of a media story than an investor story im just being very frank here i dont know about. That Lee Cooperman sat listen let me finish he sat in the chair where joe said and said you get tax reform, you get another 10 added to earnings and thats what helps take the market higher im sure he is right. Some has been reliant in some investors minds because all of the areas that would benefit from that scenario are now back to where they were in october and november. With almost no exceptions. To me, thats not the story here the story here you is get new record highs in things Like Health Care and industrials and the gray that small caps okay, so tech is retesting fridays loechlt big deal. Apple got below the this morning. Netflix got below the low. Forget about support levels. Then you look at amazon, all right that one is putting in a hammer a higher low maybe thats the one that holds up i dont that i we can tell i think its a Bigger Picture thing to say this market just swallowed four rate hikes in a row. You know, how much more can you throw at this market to have it demonstrate resilience so now you have this subrosa rotation taking place in areas of the market that had not been the fang stocks and were looking for reasons to be pessimistic because apple didnt make a new high every single day. To me i think we have to think bigger and broader should you be cautious yeah, obviously. Every day you should be kaushgs. No more today or no less than yesterday. This could be as josh said this has to be one of the most resill yenlt marke resilient markets weve seen you cant explain everything away im the definition of complaisancy i think your view. Ive been right for seven or eight years, so i guess i am complaisant. Congratulations let me know when you catch up to me kbl. This doesnt have to be a personal thing. It apparently z let me challenge that assumption. G. On average over any rolling 12 month period youre going to get a drawdown of 13. 5 . Youve been around longer than me if im willing to say i can accept that with the money that i have allocated to equities that is something worse, something not as bad, it averages tout Something Like that, you would say thats complaisant . No. What i would say is being complaisant is explaining taking all the data points and we never seen a situation like this agreed. Youre a historian, and saying they cant impact the market. Who said that i feel like you said that i feel like you showed up in the mood to argue but i did not say. That they absolutely k i said they have not yet. And youre saying its a isnt that sort of the point were making you have a vix where it s the market reflects rightly or wrongly what is going to happen in the future. Its not joshs view this is the market the market the market hasnt done anything but pretty much go up. Thats absolutely right. No one is saying that will be forever. Youre putting that in my mouth. I didnt put anything in your mouth. Tone down the arrogance for two minutes. Heres what were not going to do. Were not going to have this personal nonsense. Were going to talk about the market or not going to talk. We have three other people. Right the issue is when you see the anythingtiv negatives pile up, that will sprenlt a better buying opportunity. Markets go up will 80 of the time right. This is one time i think, and i havent lowered exposure i didnt sell any netflix even though i think it is still a great company. But ive got cash on the sideline for when that happens i dont think the issues are media creation i think theyre real issues that have evolved where there was an expectation and where ceos started to spend a all they talked about is spending and whats coming with the administration thats not going to happen i think you have to be cautious, more than normal cautious. The point im trying to make is i think its astounding that market is where it is, almost on a daily basis. Yeah, there are fits and starts and whatever based on some of the news and noise that has been out there. At other times would have had a much different reaction. One final point and the psyche of investors. You can take a look at that and you can say this is going to go on for an extended period of time or you can take the other look which im choosing to do and say at some point theres going to be something that breaks that do you think that say profound statement dont we know that something will break this. Im not going tore profound then you and i completely agree. We found a twi argue about it but we completely agree. At some point something will be thrown at this market that will absolutely vindicate the people that have cash im not saying its a black swan me either it doesnt have to be. I agree. To scotts point, there is a lot of money out there it shows that theres a lot of money and theres demand for stocks and given opportunities this morning, people rush in and buy. You have the funneld manager sauer have a we had, people think the xbleervegt valued. People talk about bubbles in various places of the market the president is under investigation. All of that has been incapable of derailing a rally judge, i saw massive hits in the eem this morning just an hour ago i saw three million shares on the bid. 2. 2 million shares on the bid. Just multiple million share, bang, bang, bang and i expected okay, now were going to wear the fall now its going to roll over. Thats the way i have come to view those sort of momentum trades nope reversed right away. Came back up 20 cents. Im like there is impossible but its not there is that money that you spoke of clearly it is committed on drops like that. And this wasnt even a 1 1 2 or 2 elloff. It was a lousy 50 cents. Because a lot is program attic. And people are not necessarily doing those million share trades or notional trades with the idea that somethings changed there are things going on. There are programattic trades going on and there isnt necessarily a person fretting about an Interest Rate decision with their finger on the enter button that not actual wla is going on. I misspoke, eem, 41, just making sure. Thanks for the house keeping. There we want to get more about one of the stories that weve been discussing. Nbc news confirming to day a especially Counsel Robert Mueller investigating the president for obstruction of justice. Lets get more from our reporter amen thats right. We saw the Washington Post break this story last night. Nbc news confirming it this morning. We also saw just within a few moments from now the president asked about this and the white house shotted questions from reporters attending just declining to respond in any way to a question of whether or not he considers himself to be under investigation. But heres what we know from nbc news as of right now the special counsel rob uert mueller is investigating possible obstruction of justice. He requested interviews with the director of national intelligence, dan coats, mike roth be rogers with the president and he wants to interview the Deputy Director ledgett they have all agreed to be interviewed. The Washington Post sparked a reaction from the president s attorney who spokesman issued this Statement Last night saying the fbi leak of information regarding the president is outrageous, inexcusable and illegal that statement despite the fact that its not at all clear the fbi was the entity that gave this information to the Washington Post last night, not at all clear it would be illegal for people who were aware of this investigation to talk about it. All of that on the president s mind this morning. He issued two tweet this is morning giving his take on all of this saying they made up a phoney collusion with the russian story, found zero proof. So now they go for obstruction of justice on the phoney story nice second tweet, youre witnessing the singling greatest witchunt in american political history led by very bad and conflicted people magg i asked whether or not the white house considered Robert Mueller to be onest bad and conflicted people the white house is not commenting onlt president s tweets this morning. Previously they said the tweets speak for themselves now theyre saying you have to talk to the president s personal attorney on. This they wont take any questions on russia or the president s tweets about any of this right now very buttoned up feeling here at the white house. Scott . What did you make of the president s comments about very good numbers on gdp coming presumably hes talking about the q2 numbers which come at the end of july and are expected to provide a snap back from an ugly First Quarter yeah, i think thats the president being very bullish he is always filled with economic optimism. He talks about the stock market. He talks about gdp he talks about Business Confidence i think thats all can you read into that the president is just very optimistic about where this economy is going right now. Yeah, aemen, thank you. Speaking of the economy, the fed announcing a rate hike moving forward as well with a plan to shrink the Balance Sheet lets bring in richard fisher, the former head of the dallas federal reserve, Senior Adviser at barclays and cnbc contributor. Welcome back nice to see you. Youve been saying they need to get down the road on the Balance Sheet. Now they say they will you must be a happy man this morning. Zblir am that is the last advice i gave to chair yellen and saying your job is to work down the Balance Sheet. I think the way theyve done this this is the reason i think it has no impact on the market, they have been as clear as a bell in signalling what their intentions are and that addendum that came out yesterday, the statement and her press conference, i think made it very clear that theyre going to be very slow, very cautious but as a determined path to pair back on the Balance Sheet, there was a very interesting comment made in that press conference which i havent heard reported or picked up and that was her saying essentially if we need to come back and do more quantity take theive easing if, the economy turns down, then we will have that capacity. They would not have had that capacity if they had not begun the proservice pairing back. The principle qe has now been established. They want to pair back eventually ultimately on the Mortgage Backed securities, thats an Asset Allocation decision but have the capacity to use the treasuries and purchases if they need to if and when the economy turns down and i think you need to remember and everybody on the panel needs to remember we just entered our ninth year of economic expansion. We never had an xpenexpansion in more than ten years in American History and also in 13 tightening cycles since world war ii, in 10 of those for the feds actions tipped the economy over and set a recession ensued. So this has to be very jenltgeny done at this point i think she did a good job yesterday. So how much credit should the fed get among a lot of voices out there that have been critical of the fed for the expansion that you just mentioned and wall street journal today a gentleman by the name after Michael Gapen from barclays, a former fed economist. Zblo the fed has done a tremendous job helping the economy grind its way out of an extremely deep and disruptive recession it generally operate add lone and received a lot of criticism for doing what Congress Asked it to do. Do you have a problem with that statement . Not one bit ill tell you why. Our congress has not given us a budget in eight out of last 15 years. They have done nothing to look, the principle is the fed provides liquidity for the economy and the fuel and fiscal policy, regulatory policy should be what then drives the economy forward. The fed had to act all by itself i play have been a critic as to going too far. The fact is there was no other player in town it was only the federal reserve. Our fiscal authorities disappointed us over and over and over again and coming back to a point i made earlier, despite all this distraction were seeing in washington, remember, we went through president nixons resignation, president clintons being impeached, we still move forward. Were a great country. We need have good fiscal policy and we have to have regulatory guidelines that encourage job creation and uses the cheap money that they provided to good use. So i think thats what this comes down to that statement was absolutely correct. I wonder if youre in the room again, richard, how do you sort of my spirit hovers over the room. Always. Always as it does this set. How do you balance and how do they balance their own economic forecasts with the projection of the trump agenda coming or not or being delayed and how they view their own policy decisions in the months to come . Well, i think one aspect of this is not also been discussed which you is want to have money in your pocket to be able to spend if and km economy tufrnz down it will happen again, were pressing the historic envelope. Maybe this is a different time we could press further but eventually even god hasnt conquered the Business Cycle so you want to have some money in your pocket i would consider that as part of the argument right here. It is a good time. The markets are very accommodative. The ten year rate is trading in the 215 level. There is a lot of interest in our sovereign securities let the market take that in. And meanwhile, youre building the capacity as you build on the caps and wean down your portfolio, youre building capacity to use that portfolio should you have to in a further cycle. And on the short end, member, she spoke about the, janet yellen, about the asymmetry of risk when she spoke a year ago to the Economic Club of new york that just meant that at the zero bound you had nothing to give back at the short end theyre building that up theyll move one more time on certain this year despite what the market is discounting. And theyll continue the proservice being able to have some money in their pocket to be able to spend to offset a slowdown in the economy or down turn or moderate that down turn when the time comes. I have to run i do have to ask you because i thought of it. Is the bond market worried about a policy error from the fed . I dont see that. I just see this has a massive amount of liquidity chasing positive yield remember, the germans are still negative out to eight years and son. Were an attractive place to be despite the distraction of the political nonsense we see in washington yeah. Richard, always great to talk you to look forward to doing it again next time on in person on the s thank you ill wear pants the next time i do that. He only exists from here on up in television. Thats right. You have no idea what the gang is wearing. Yeah. I dont want to know. Tmi. Exactly good point to go to a tease. Halftime report just getting warmed up. Just getting dressed next, a knock on alphabet one analyst cut the stock and our call of the day. Plus, the ceo of health care giant eli lilly on the pipeline and the stock. The traders give us their best picks among big farm yashgs biotech and the medical device stocks o nus. Alftime report is back in twmite think again. This is the new new york. We are building new airports all across the state. New roads and bridges. New mass transit. New business friendly environment. New lower taxes. And new University Partnerships to grow the businesses of tomorrow today. Learn more at esd. Ny. Gov the power of the nasdaq market. The power of 100 of the worlds top companies. The power of an etf. The power of qqq. The thinking we put in, clients get out. Power your clients portfolio at powershares. Com qqq. Before investing, consider the Funds Investment objectives, risks, charges and expenses. Call 8009830903 for the prospectus containing this information. Read it carefully. Distributed by invesco distributors inc. Containing this information. Read it carefully. So, how are things cartheyise . Youre fired [ screaming ] its time to get back on top. Were going back to villainy. So bad so good that im so bad. [ maniacal laugh ] dont try to fight the feeling of somethin thats so organic. [ pop ] despicable me 3. Rated pg. Alphabet is under pressure today. Downgrading it to a hold they said the stock is expensive by historical standards. It is our calf tl of the day. It is the cheapest stock and the call may be early but better to be early than late is that fair we own it sells for 24 times next years earnings im not sure what that means exactly. Its expensive by historic standards p its not that old a company. Weve had the market for the last eight years go higher from very depressed levels including google being very depressed at the time relative to the growth rate, i dont think its particularly expensive. And if you look at the tech sector generally, i dont find it and that is cash flow and prospect expensive particularly at all. They maintain the price target which says something in and of itself. It seems the analyst is taking longer term, Bigger Picture view and trying to buy on a dip, more or less hes trying to he or she is saying fit slams down like this and you get a chance, lets reload down here at this lower level. This one and amazon both have big selloffs early on. And they both stopped on a dime like i say at that 50 Day Moving Average and bounced 10. Thats why its a great time to be as a trader in those names. But i know most of the people watching are investors youve had a growing number of detractors and defenders of the fangs recently right . Apple gets downgraded by a couple people. Then a couple people come out and upgrade it and defend it you also have declemente out today defending one of the stocks in his universe youve seen that repeatedly. It was amazon. He raised the price target. Yeah. That is more or less catching up i went through his own price target he doesnt want to downgrade it. But you get the point. I do. Absolutely. I think part of i never fault an analyst for downgrading on valuation. That is the discipline that theyre using. I dont have an issue with that. I think that this one, now that i think this is one i want to buy lower. I dont think it is lower by historical standards. Are we talking about alphabet yes because theyre the survivor theyve knocked off all the others so they deserve a higher multiple than that he said he would buy right now. I agree he didnt say this today, but the last time he was on. I dont disagree. I think its very reasonably priced stock that is always going to be a leader but i think there is a conflict with what hes saying in terms of his buy target on amazon at 1200 to me, thats expensive than not google or alphabet josh . Im sorry. Joey go ahead. Youre seeing for the first time volatility specific to the fang, increased volatility thats why all the analysts are coming out and everyone is picking a side it goes back to the prior conversation what is your discipline in the market josh is a wealth manager he talks about the last seven or eight years. Absolutely if youre a wealth manager, hes correct. Right strategy you is buy every dip. If you are a trader, if you are more active in the marketplace, youre doing Something Like i did a week ago when i suggested given the dynamics of the market right now, i want to have microsoft relative to the fangs. For me and my portfolio that, paid off mike is probably down about 3 and you got apple down nearly twice that so it depends what the discipline s there is nothing wrong with the fundamentals of google. Lets talk about health care now. Meg is at the Piper JaffrayHeartland Health care summit in minneapolis. She has an exclusive interview as well with the ceo of eli lilly. Thank you so much thank you for joining us. Pleasure to be here so there is so muchgoing on in washington right now. There was just a hearing this week that was supposed to be about drug prices, really kind of he could opted and started talking about the Gop Health Plan much as youve been visiting washington and really involved in the conversations, what do you expect to come out as to drug pricing, how it performs, how it affects your business i think its hard to guess how it will come out you have to talk to people inside the beltway i can tell what you were talking about and what we hope is that this a moment awhere we can make improvements. So one issue were talking a lot about is the difference between list prices of medications, widely reported. And what actually net prices are and how consumers, individual consumers and high deductible plans in particular are paying the list price and why should they be paying that . Were providing deep rebates to payers in the system who enjoy those like the small guy and the consumer on the street doesnt get that same benefit. Were talking about increasing competition by having an fda that moves faster in improving generics and also innovative breakthrough thats were working none alzheimers and autoimmune disease, diabetes theyve done a great job using tools in cancer to speed up new cancer medications its really changing cancer care right now. How about a broader approach to that were also talking about trade deals and how the administration can work for us in trade in terms of that issue about list prices versus net prices which are the ones that after you give discounts and rebates back into the system, a key area thats been a focus recently has been insulin a lot of pressures being placed on you now about the price of insulin. When you look at the list price, they tripled in the last decade. But you guys argue that net prices are lower than they were five years ago or longer how do you make sure that every patient can afford insulin both those facts are true were very concerned about the affordability of insulin to every day patients, particularly cash payers who dont have coverage or patients in high deductible plans, aca plans like silver plans or there an increasing growth in employer high deductible plans so we launched several initiatives to directly reduce their out of pocket costs. One of the most recently in the partnership with express scripts using the good rx platform which is the most commonly used drug Price Transparency platform. Patients right now today can get a 40 reduction in insulin by going on that application one click and you get a coupon reduces their cost so were working to find solutions. Another solution would be for insurance designed to actually pass through the rebates they get to the consumers directly. Were advocating for that as well. We heard that something under consideration. I have to ask you also about a recent develop nent diabetes with a competitor from Johnson Johnson getting data that most people termeinterpreted that as positive because of the lack of side effect. How much of a boom is that for your zplug. This class is showing beyond changing blood sugar i think that is a very exciting thing if youre a someone who treats diabetes or have diabetes heart risk is really what the long term concern of patients with diabetes s majority appears to have a differentiated profile and were the only one with an indication to reduce long term cardiovascular risk. So were focused on that now j j can talk about their drug. We like where we are with that its a great new option for patients all right, well leave it there thank you for being with us thank you. Scott, back to you. Thanks so much. Lily, i dont see them on anybodys list why . Having a good year up its up 11 zbh yep, up 11 . Doing well i think maybe your brother pete has had it petes been on that i see bristolmyers and other name. Health care is, i think, the second leading sector year to date its up probably about 12 i have tried to have a focus in the equipment part of it i stay add way from biotech. My sphere that if you were going to witness something that we witnessed with the fangs last week then that would occur in biotech as well. I was amazed at how well biotech has traded given the elevated mobility i need to find other names. I got bmy, bristolmyers, carrie owns it, john slong calls. Josh brown and yours as well y bristolmyers is one of the names that is just absolutely destroyed. They had a series of events around trials that people didnt like manage ment made some announcements and made better. Earnings were not spectacular. You had a litany of things and really great buying opportunity. And the stock put in what i considered to be a definitive bottom in line with the whole sector which bottomed late january and early february 2016. This year is interesting because bioteches are leading the he Health Care Sector small biotechs are leading big biotechs so if you take a look at xdi, its on the verge of a breakout. That is years in the making. Doing much better than the larger names in biotech. Which had been leading prior to the 20152016 mini bear market for the group. I would stay small but there are some select situations like amgen and bristol on the large side that i like. That leads me to you. You had a knack for finding the smaller biotech players that have done well. This is the longest period i havent been invested in health care i really cant tell you why. I should be. Its one of those sectors that probably the only sector actually that always grows each year regardless of the economy so like joe, i made the commitment that im going to get involved there is an opportunity. I do like small cap biotech. Large cap biotech is interesting because its growing faflter than pharma but trading at a lower valuation. So i do think you have to be there and i will be shortly. Carry, you are there. Yeah, so we have a variety of names. Its an overweight group for us. We did not believe that the down turn at the end of the Fourth Quarter after the election was going to last and so we added two names on the larger side, we have bristolmyers which we bought. Alergan bristolmyers adjustment to remind people of what you got. What is the next big catalyst for bristolmyers do you think they have two things happening. On a couple of the trials, i think the numbers are going to look better than they have theyve had a couple of, as you said, setbacks which were related to the way they designed trials rather than the fact that drugs dont work which they do theyre approved so we think theres that lien is buyers on the market theyre activities were looking at bristol and its not 18 times earnings we own a veterinary too long to be down too long. And alergan is not a stock affected by drug pricing. Rheumatoid arthritis, i thought you were going there, too. There is a conference going on that bristol is at overseas right now. Its about addressing that kind of disease and that kind of problem and i think thats the next home run. All right up next, doc, thats john, hes tracking bullish options activity in the commodities space. Hell tell what you it s gold prices are falling today were going to the futures pits to find out post fed and aook l ahead where gold goes from here. Halftime is back in two minutes. Hello, everybody im sue her air yachlt here is your cnbc news update. Otto warmbier is in a hospital with his mother at his side according to a hospital spokesperson his father who you see there says he does not believe north koreas explanation for his sons condition. Even if you believe their explanation of botulism and a sleeping pill causing the coma and we dont, there is no excuse for any civilized nation to have kept his condition secret and denied him topnotch medical care for so long. Jurors in the bill cosby Sexual Assault trial say they are deadlocked the judge has told them to try again to reach a verdict the jury has deliberated about 30 hours over four days. Air travelers could see higher ticket fares due to major airport expansions Moodys Investors Services say most airports will raise Airline Rates and charges significantly by the year 2021 because of those expansions and hopefully improvements thats the cnbc news update isth hour Halftime Report is back after a quick break. Usaa gives me the peace of mind and the security just like the marines did. The process through usaa is so effortless, that you feel like youre a part of the family. I love that i can pass the membership to my children. Were the williams family, and were usaa members for life. Were back on the Halftime Report jon sees unusual activity in the Options Market again, doc, what is up exactly letter x, judge. There is one of the infrastructure plays that maybe people are trying to get ahead of what they hope will be a big infrastructure spend whether or not that happens, u. S. Steel down 43 cents today they came scrambling in buying calls that are about 20 out of the money. Look at the activity of the previous couple days leading into this today they trade a little over almost 13,000 of these calls for up to 88 cents thats the entry point thats the risk is the 88 cents, not the 20. 24 but theyre betting we see a pop out of steel theyre also betting on aks, another steel related name were pretty much seeing rotation into a couple of these big steel names and theyre doing it through options doc, come on back this way thank you we have more trades ahead in the blitz including kroger, newcore, underarm under armur and more hey, ive got the trend analysis. Hey. Hi. Hi. You guys going to the Company Picnic this weekend . Picnics are delightful. Oh, wish we could. But were stuck here catching up on claims. But we just compared historical claims to coverages. But we have those new audits. My natural language api can help us score those by noon. Great. See you guys there. We would not miss it. Watson, you gotta learn how to take a hint. I love to learn. Watson, you gotta learn how to take a hint. At crowne plaza we know Business Travel isnt just business. Theres this. a bit of this. Why not . Your hotel should make it easy to do all the things you do. Which is what we do. Crowne plaza. Were all business, mostly. When this guy got a flat tire in the middle of the night, so he got home safe. Yeah, my dad says our insurance doesnt have that. What . you can leave worry behind when liberty stands with you™. Liberty mutual insurance. We created the ripple the doughnut in a doughnut in a doughnut. Right away, it was a success. I mean, it really took off. What people dont know is that it all started with points from my chase ink card. I bought the ingredients, utensils, even custom donut cutters. Wow all with 80,000 points. What will you create with your points . Learn more about the ink business preferred card. Lets take a look at gold today sinking to a three week low as the u. S. Dollar is strengthening. The fed yesterday, rate hike, no surprise there why wasnt it priced in already . I it this was everybody was expecting a dovish rate hike we got a much more hawkish rate hike than expected with the announcement of the decreasing of the Balance Sheet and how theyre going to do that gold is reacting short of the geopolitical mess we seem to see. As long as that all stays quiet and talking about china, qatar, syria, russia, investigations, obstruction of justice, i dont know how long all that is going to stay quiet. As long as it does youre looking at the inverse relationship between the dollar and gold driving gold prices, possibly a jump later in the month. There is going to be an extra tax added in india to physical gold purchases july 1st. The price right now, 12. 54 what happens when we break 12. 50 i think if we break 12. 50, we trade down to 12. 35 but not much below fwhe were in a much broader uptrend. I wouldnt be a bear in gold until it settled below 12. 30. The immediate term, you look for patterns and try to play it on an uptick. Were also joined by bmos jack ablin he said the market is expensive but one thing keeping the rally aly. You wouldnt want to miss that at the top of the hour more halftime after this im here at the Td Ameritrade trader offices. Steve, other than making me move stuff, what are you working on . Let me show you. Okay. Our thinkorswim Trading Platform aggregates all the options data you need in one place and lets you visualize that information for any options series. Okay, cool. Hang on a second. You can even see the anticipated range of a stock expecting earnings. Impressive. Whats up, tim. See options data like never before. With thinkorswim only at Td Ameritrade. Lets now with kroger is tanking today. Cut its forecast, doc. You own calls. I own calls, so its not a good day. Yep. But its a lot better than being in the stock they cut guidance because they beat on top line and bottom line kroger did for the earnings, but they cut guidance by almost 25 , i think, judge so thats the reason shares are getting smacked. A lot better to be in the calls than the stock. Nucore did the same. They did. They said its not selling like it used to steel commodity is a global kmotty the facts are that china keeps producing it its complete protectionism. I would stay away. I dont like the steel signs. Lets look at two big sports stocks today both in the red as well. Under armour is down 4. 5, nike is down more than 3. Wow. So nike is cutting some jobs, josh sales growth is slowing. Meantime, under armour gets reiterate of a sale at susquehanna. They say quoting from their note, its becoming clear incremental sales to kohls, dsw will not offset sales from the sports authority, mc sports, Gander Mountain and dick sports and other large sports retailers are planning the ua a business down in response to poor product. He could be right, but i think hes wrong this is one of my favorite risk rewards from the long side. You have two points in risk here you would set a stop just below 19 look how many times they try to get the stock down below 19. They could not do it attempt after attempt after attempt all spring i think the news that the analyst is spouting probably is pretty well known right now. Nobody thinks this is a growth story in Great Condition or anything like that i understand this is a name thats come down from 54 a share. If you could take two points of risk and potentially see this thing get back into that postearning gap, you could have like a 30, 40 loop to the upside on your hands that a lot of Short Interest in here, too i would fade this guy, use a stop if hes right, who cares, youll be out. It seems a little too easy f you will, that the stock is up 20 since the nba playoffs began. So when you have a stock that had been in a down trend gets a pop by 20 since the playoffs, its based on ratings. Its pulled back a little bit this week. Look as the market started to think maybe the same thing. Listen, i dont have any edge about like when under armours business is going to turn. No one else does either. Thats a different story the real thing thats going on here is you have a pretty solid support level based purely on the fact that we know the buyers come in at that level and sellers stop use that to trade off of or minimize your potential downside if youre wrong. I like the risk reward. Ma tell announces cutting its dividend by 60 . They hit a one and a half year low. The stock traded awful. Analysts were looking for something positive they didnt get it the dividend dend cut was expected you know cleared that hurdle you have 300 million to utilize fund innovation, em growth theyre not giving quarterly guidance whats amazing is theres no activist investor in this company. I would think one would step in. Visa, you stay with it . Weve really liked this stock. Its in the low 90s. We think it has upside to 120. We dont know what consumers are going to buy we dont know where theyre going to buy them, but when they buy, visa is one of the main catalysts for that they and mastercard have been on a tear we think that theres considerable future potential and the credit side, debit side, theyre doing all the type of Payment Processing they need to sll le n top of their game and wetiikit. Okay. Final trades right after this short break. 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Were going to close them up in three hour, that means its time for final trades joe, you are first. I just want to quickly talk about crude oil. We have time. Go ahead. Ive been skeptical about crude oil. You look at all classes. The Asset Management business, all Asset Classes are higher year to date except, of course, mlps are not higher. I think energy when you look at a specifically is in trouble here the entire energy board both brent and wti is now in deep containgo. The first time its happened since mid november thats an ominous sign. What happened to the refiner trade that a lot of folks on this desk liked . Not working. Didnt work. So many of the names we had pick havent worked . Its not working. The hope is because of the limited waiting of energy in the s p that it doesnt take the s p down with it im of that belief. Fire trade is like a delusion of a delusion. A, we dont know where oil is going. B, the crack spud is derivative of that. How are we going to do that . Thats been a tough trade. Youre in a tight range. You dont have a big expansion or contraction. I want to reiterate what i said about under ar hour to me, look, things could get worse, absolutely. Youll be out of the trade but you always want to think about these things in terms of risk reward. I think the setup here is really a classic one. Well see how it plays out. All right kerry . Cme, there are commodities options future Interest Rate we think that with low volatility fix has been so low. Picks up its great for savings. Another one im looking at is facebook i dont know if its right netflix if it dives in that gap ill talk about it. Power lunch starts now. Thanks, scott. Here is whats on your thursday menu, tuning out of tech money pouring out of the big names. Well tell you where its going and why one analyst is ignoring it and getting more bullish on amazon. The battle over drug prices. The ceo of al leragain is here and will weigh in. The stock up double digits this year well get his prescription for profit. Anger in the air which carriers are feeling the most heat . Put your trays in the locked up position right now power lunch takes off right