No, it isnt. To keep it simple, dont overthink it approach, maybe further chop to the downside. The s p 500 has really followed the seasonal script pretty well in direction if not magnitude this year, which would suggest a couple more weeks of difficulty. I think pretty much everyone is alert to the idea you probably get a strong finish or at least the odds would say, to the year. The longer we go churning sideways this way, though, i think people are looking for cracks or just finding them. There has been a loss of momentum. Market breadth has faltered if you look at the equal weighted s p. Its been left behind. Even some of the cyclical bellwether area like industrials and Consumer Discretionary, theyve given back some outperformances. Its not as if theyre setting off loud alarms but they lost a little bit of their leadership year to date relative to the s p 500. All that, though, is working against the idea that all the known headwinds were talking about, the strikes, the student loan repay, maybe government shutdown, maybe global weakness and higher gasoline prices are interacting with an economy that just a few weeks ago we thought was running too hot in july. Were using up the momentum and benefit of the doubt. Late cycle psychology is going to be hard to escape from, i think. Were at this point in the cycle where its people feel like its when not if things fall apart. It reminds me of 2019 in a lot of ways. Who knows how long we would have gone without a recession if not for the pandemic. It could have been a long time. The journal piece this morning, looking at 95 and the period where they managed to do it. In the words of blinder who said, nothing bad happened. Thats right. Got lucky along the way. I would quibble a little bit first of all, 95 is the pristine, perfect soft landing scenario. I would quibble slightly saying its the only one. The mid80s you also had the end of a tightening cycle and you didnt have a recession for quite a long period of time. So its doable. Youre just looking to prolong the good things, full employment type setup. Nothing will trump the Inflation Numbers on that front. I think on wednesday well talk a lot about what the fed has to say in its outlook. If theyre still saying were not going to get to 2 inflation target until 2025, meaning theyll wait to see if the numbers help them out, i think it allows more to be patient. I think theres less kind of collective macro panic happening, at least right now. I love goldmans granular pencilling in one more hike to give them the out, in case. I think thats what these institutions always want to do, preserve their flexibility as things change. I think the market could live with that for now. Mike, well talk in a little bit. The treasury secretary talking with sara earlier this morning giving an op mystic outlook for the economy. There are lags in Monetary Policy on the economy. We would expect to see some impacts. I think weve certainly seen it in the housing market. Look, we still have a good, healthy labor market, Consumer Spending remains quite robust. Weve seen Strong Industrial production. I dont see any signs that the economy is at risk of a downturn. This is the best of all worlds, to see continued strength in the economy, a good, strong labor market and inflation moving down. That is what were seeing. Sara is back on set. What did you think of the interview . You know, i threw a lot at her in terms of potential risk for the economy there. I mentioned the student loan payment he payment resumption, mentioned a possible government shutdown, the uaw strike, the lag impact of Monetary Policy. She sticks with the optimistic view. Now, obviously, shes a treasury secretary, but it so far has been the case. She kept pointing to the resilient labor market. Even mentioned i even talked to her about the fact that, hey, all this fiscal stimulus and the spending, thats whats keeping us from recession and could keep inflation sticky, couldnt it . She said not really a ton of evidence thats happening. A lot of it is paid for. Push back against some negativity. On oil prices, theyre clearly watching that very carefully because a lot of the progress theyve made there is being reversed. She said, were not near the highs. Were still lower than we were last year. But they are watching it. I thought it was the responses were watching closely, gas prices monitoring. Monitoring. On the shutdown she did Say Something we do not need as a risk factor at this point. Less than two weeks to go. They better make a deal. Its not clear whether that could happen. I asked if there was an Economic Impact if there is a shutdown. She said, probably not. Not such an Economic Impact. The biggest question is how long the uaw strike will last and what the resumption of the student loan payments would look like. That is a little hard to tell still. Two big stories as we work our way through september. Our next guest thinks a soft landing could be possible if that strong labor market holds on and unemployment doesnt spike but also said the feds focus on wage growth could end up pushing us into a recession. Joining us is brent shuti. Neutral equities, underweight xhotties. It sounds like your macro view may not be the most constructive out there. No, we certainly think theres going to be a recession. The economy is late in the cycle. Yes, weve had a disinflation impulse we thought would happen so were overweight equities. Now were rekting to a normal economy where the u. S. Economy looks late in the cycle. You mentioned wages, the uaw, theyre still too hot. To me the fed isnt going to ease the liquidity tourniquet they put on the economy until they see wages push substantially lower which i dont think happens nunless theres a rise in the Unemployment Rate, which we call recession. Thats where we think there is likely to be a recession in the future which is why were overweight fixed income. Where do you think the terminal rate goes . Look, i think more important is, whats the endgame . To me the endgame is there has to be a rise in the Unemployment Rate. Wages are at 4. 3 on a yearoveryear basis. The last press conference fed chair powell said, wages are not consistent with 2 inflation. Thats where i think so this has to push back into the 3. 2 , 3. 5 range. That is unlikely to happen unless you get a large increase in labor force participation, so mike mentioned 1995. Thats where you saw a large influx of people in the labor market. You saw a huge productivity boom. Those are two things that could happen but are probably highly unlikely. In that case, i think thats where you have to have a rising Unemployment Rate which will cause that recession to occur. One of the more interesting things i heard this morning from the treasury secretary, and she said this pretty definitively, that she doesnt see any signs theres concerns in the bond market about issuance and the deficits and the debt. Since youre long fixed income it sounds like youre not expecting that either. Some are worried thats going to keep rates persistently higher. Potentially. I dont think were going back to where we were in 2014 and 2020 where we looked up every day and thought about disinflation and low Interest Rates all together. I do think youll have a period of time where the fed will be cutting rates next year because there will be a recession, which will be a ballast to the fixed income market. Ill take that in the next 6 to 12 months when i think theres a lot of economic uncertainty. Longer term i think there potential problems. Perhaps 4 to 5 is the new normal for fixed income. I think between now and then you get a period of time where the fed does cut and you actually see strong returns in the fixed income markets. Appreciate it. Always good to check in with you. Interesting times, especially now. Brent shutte, thanks. Treasury secretary yellen commenting on the uaw strikes saying too early to tell what the Economic Impact will be. Goldman sachs analyst saying the work stoppage equals 40 million per week and assuming margins deteriorate about 40 . The ebitda impact to gm and ford could be about 40 million per week each. As for stellantis, the average weekly production at its toledo plant is higher than ford and gm and toledo is where we find phil lebeau with the latest on the negotiations. What do we know now . Reporter not a whole lot of movement. We know as we speak, representatives from stellantis and the uaw are getting together. You were talking about that Economic Impact. Keep in mind, the plants that are being hit by the uaw right now, theyre not the most profitable plants by the big three in the united states. Theyre important but not the most profitable. Heres the strike impact. Remember, the plants that have been hit so far in the strikes, youre talking about midsize suvs, popular ones, as well as midsize pickup trucks, but not the most profitable. About 15 of the big three u. S. Production. The fullsize plants continue to operate. There are some key issues. I know were talking a lot about 40 versus 20 and 21 . Beyond hourly pay and where the raise ends up over 4 1 2 years, the other thing to keep in mind are wage tiers, cost of living adjustments and restoring pensions, all of which the uaw wants. Speaking of the uaw, president shawn fain talking earlier on cnbc about his frustration that this does not seem to be moving very quickly. Its a shame, again, the companies waited until the last week to start getting serious about talking about this. They wasted a lot of time. We told them up front, dont do that. We told them up front, we expect to deal with these things early and often. They chose not to do that. So, they chose to be in this position and thats why we find ourselves where we are right now. One last thing as you take a look at shares of ford. Ford negotiators will be sitting down with uaw representatives today as they continue their negotiations. Ford also faces the prospect of a strike at its facilities north of the border up in canada. Contract with ford expires at midnight. Doesnt mean there will be a strike. They could extend the contract. They may continue negotiations. Theres a lot on the plate for ford. By the way, also for gm and stellantis. Ford is the one going first up in canada. Back to you. Phil, it doesnt sound like the union is necessarily counting on the white house to make any kind of difference here. Reporter no, not at all. If you listen to that interview that shawn fain did on morning joe, theres no reason to be optimistic this is going to be resolved any time soon. Seriously. There was nothing in there where, yeah, we see a little movement, things are improving. All they said over the weekend was, there was reasonable reasonably productive talks with ford. Thats not a ringing endorsement of we are moving towards an agreement. They are continuing to talk, but theres no indication they are making dramatic progress. Let us know what you hear, phil. Thank you very much. Phil lebeau. Up next, is luxury the outlier as the consumer gets more cautious . Saks ceo with us. Later on, a debate on the disney dip. Dont go anywhe. Er ht hey corporate types. Would you stop calling each other rock stars . Youre a rock star. You are a rock star. Rock stars. Please do you know what it takes to be a rock star . Ive trashed hotel rooms in 43 countries. I was on the road since i was 16. Ive done my share of bad things. Also your share of bad things. We know that using workday for finance and hr makes you great at your job. But that dont make you a rock star. Ted ted ted oh ted in finance. Youre a rock star hey liz in hr . Can you do this . Unless you work with an actual rock star. You are a rock star thank you whos the new guy . Hi, im ozwald. Hello ozwald. Give it up for pam. Pam, you are a rock [silence] i wasnt going to say it. A majority of u. S. Adults feel the current economic environment is having a negative impact on their finances, according to a new exclusive cnbc Morning Consult survey. Middle income households are feeling the negative effects the most. Sentiment that has held steady since our first survey in june. Higher income households say they are feeling the impacts less. 30 say they are having a positive impact on their finances, up 20 since june. 92 told us they have cut back on spending over the last six months. Clothing, restaurants, bars, and entertainment remain the most common categories for cuts. Looking ahead, more than threequarters of consumers say they will cut spending on nonessentials sometimes or more often over the next six months. We will continue to watch this closely as we get into the allimportant Holiday Shopping season. Interesting the way were getting splinterization on income brackets. And i thought it was interesting that restaurants were included. It doesnt surprise me on goods, but services is what has stayed hot and sticky. So, deceleration there is notable, i think, for the feds inflation fight and the economy. Lets stay with the consumer because when it comes to the Luxury Consumer, our next guest is seeing early signs of a spending rebound. The latest saks luxury poll survey shows 58 of Luxury Consumers plan to spend the same or more in the next three months. That marks the first increase in luxury Spending Plans since the survey began tracking the metric in may 22. The luxury Stock Performance tells a different story. Lvmh down double digits in the last few months. Joining us is saks ceo marc metrick. Good morning. Thank you for having me. Tell us more about what youre seeing in this data. Is it surprising to see a tick up in luxury spending . Weve always said when it comes to the Luxury Consumer, they are last in and first out of these moments. Thats what were seeing. You put it into the lead. Its the first increase in this type of response weve seen since way back in may of 22. Its encouraging. Any sense of whats driving it . I think when you look back it was an interesting phenomenon weve been watching. The Luxury Consumer, 70 of them, even last time and this time indicated they felt comfortable about their own financial situation but were more concerned about the overall economy. Since this is more of a sentimentbased consumer, the Luxury Consumer basis on that, we are starting to see them feel things are going to be, less worse. Im not saying theyre not still concerned but less concerned than theyve been. I think youll see that move into their psyche as well. I wonder how much can be chalked up to the fact that the market was tough last year and its up 16 this year. Nasdaq is up more than 30 this year. How correlated to that is the luc Luxury Consumer . Its the broader space. Obviously, the market is a piece of it but its what they look and feel. They see the ipo markets are opening up. We saw one today, one last week. Its everything as far as the Capital Markets go. Again, its overall sentiment. People want to feel good about spending and they cant if other folks are under pressure. Carl just showed it. Its across different income strata but its there. Sara mentioned the difference between spending on goods and services. What do we expect to hold up better over the long term, luxury travel, for example, or luxury apparel, lets say . You know, there are actually pretty tightly correlated. We consider ourselves a goat, go out and travel business. When you travel, you know, you want to wear luxury or use luxury to travel. Our respondents indicated as such. Over 70 of them have a trip planned. About 70 of those people said, hell, im going to buy something new in luxury to either wear or travel with. Whats happening on pricing, has inflation in apparel and accessory sector come down at all . Youre not seeing pricing moving. Weve chatted about this. Look, inflation isnt necessarily something in luxury that moves around. This is a supply and demand game. You know, youre going to see the prices, you know, kind of stay where they are. And were going to just figure out how to create scarcity and demand for it. We have seen the consumers indicated, the 42 of folks who said they were going to spend less said its going to take a sale and im willing to wait. About 75 said, ill wait it out, which has been what people have done in the past as well. Right. Finally, mike, we did get an upgrade at one firm this morning of ralph lauren. They point to cotton down by a third in the last year and a half, pretty good inventories, margin upside. I just wonder if youre seeing that kind of story spun out across your universe right now . Even exconcerns about china, for example. Look, i think the brands are doing a good job of managing their own supply chain and businesses. Theyre so globally diversified, its a bigger story than just one element of it, but im very happy to hear ralph is having the success theyre having. Im sure a lot of other folks are balancing the same way. Is it still the going out clothes, jackets, coats, wearing to work, is that still whats working . Yeah. Whats working is im not saying sneakers are dead, but sneakers are being pushed aside for more of a shoe. Its what we talked about last time, comfort. Shes getting into the ballet flat, embellished or clean, doesnt matter, and hes getting into the loafer. Its evening, going out, and jewelry. Dont forget about that. Theyre stacking and they used to be stacking on the wrist and now theyre stacking around the neck with a layered pendant. If youre wearing it, its going to be red. Thats the color the team keeps talking about. I love that. Red, i can get down with that. Not ballet flats for a short girl. Marc, thank you. Thank you for having me. And hes wearing loafers. Yes. A bunch of us are, trust me. Still to come this morning, deutsche is bullish on one chip name this morning ahead of earnings. That call straight ahead. Plus, watching arm. Bernstein turning sour on the stock despite a red hot debut. Its down 6. 3 . Well look at what it means for inactprpes iseestars osctth wk, next. Gold isnt merely a commodity. Its an investment in people and communities. At osisko, we strive to build modern, safe, and sustainable mines that benefit all. Think big. Shape tomorrow. Osisko. Every day, businesses everywhere are asking think big. Is it possible . With comcast business. It is. Is it possible to use predictive monitoring to address operations issues . We can help with that. Can we provide health care virtually anywhere . We can help with that, too. Is it possible to survey foot traffic across all of our locations . Yeah absolutely. With the advanced connectivity and intelligence of global secure networking from comcast business. Its not just possible. Its happening. Since the citi custom cash® card automatically adjusts to earn me more cash back in my top eligible category. Suddenly, lifes feeling a little more automatic. Oooooohhh. Automatic sashimi earn cash back that automatically adjusts to how you spend with the citi custom cash® card. The European Market set to close in just a moment with negative sentiment. The bundis bank saying they would mark four straight quarters of negative or flat. Jpmorgan remains cautious, reiterating underweight rating on the region with weak macro data. Wolf saying buckle up, showing technicals show a tumultuous period coming. The commission in brussels expects germany to have negative growth this year. The data has turned worse than the u. S. And a little bit sharper, which is why a lot of people think the ecb is done raising rates. You have this back and forth between germany and china where tensions a little bit regarding trade and reliance on one another. A couple hours into trading. Dow up. Lets get to post to post with bob pisani. The s p is up 16 , 17 , but a lot of parts of the market are acting poorly. Consumer names have not been great. Target, a threeyear low for target. Remember the heavy days of the pandemic. Look at this, 118. We were north of close to 300 a couple of years ago on target. People were buying Consumer Discretionary items and nonConsumer Discretionary items. Since then theres been, of course, with high inflation, much less buying of discretionary items that are out there. Target got hit along with that. Believe it or not, even some of the dollar stores. Dollar general is another one here thats gotten hit. They had a big comment at the end of august. They slashed their profit outlook at the end of august. Talking about weaker Consumer Spending on nonessentials. Were in a new low for dollar general, dollar tree, same situation. So, the Consumer Staples in general have had a poor year. Not just retailers. Cocacola is not doing very well. Hasnt been doing very well. Thats a new low for the year. Its not a 52week low at 57. But they had a big run. These consumer names when the defensives were really strong. That was in the middle of last year, though. Since then, generally theyve had a hard time because the recession fears have dissipated. They havent been doing as well this year. One thing thats doing well is we see oil moving towards 90. Everything in the oil complex, this is marathon petroleum, a refiner, not marathon oil, which is an Exploration Production company. Marathon petroleum hitting new highs. Phillips 66, refiners are hitting new highs. It doesnt matter, the oil complex in general is moving. Particularly Oil Service Providers like halliburton are doing really well and some other names in the exploration and production space. Occidental petroleum, for example, are all moving up. Thats the real power sector weve seen. Again, its only 5 of the s p 500. Other sectors are much, much larger. The problem is, you can get oil moving, but its not necessarily going to move the index. Thats the big issue. It used to be better. Its better than it used to be, carl. Remember when oil was 3 . Energy used to be 3 of the s p two years ago. Now its closer to 6 . Thats an improvement. You need a lot higher in order to move the dial on the index. Back to you. Thanks. Talk to you in a while. Lets get a new update with pippa stevens. Good morning. Good morning. Five americans wrongfully imprisoned in iran are now free, arriving in qatar after they released in a prisoner exchange. The next stop is back home to america. As part of the deal the u. S. Is expected to release five iranian nationals in u. S. Custody and give iran access to 6 billion in oil revenues frozen under u. S. Sanctions. Senior politicians in the uk urged police today to investigate Sexual Assault allegations against british comedian russell brand. Brand denied the claims made by four women in a Tv Documentary and article released this weekend. He insists his relationships were consensual. The u. S. Is asking for help finding an f35 fighter jet that went missing sunday afternoon when the pilot ejected because of a, quote, mishap. Military Officials Say the stealth jet was left in autopilot and could possibly still be airborne and that the transponder may not be working. Searchers are focusing their attention north of joint base charleston, but arent saying whether they believe the jet crashed. Sara . Pippa, thank you. Disney trading at lows not seen in a decade. Why Raymond James says its time to buy the dip next. As cnbc celebrates hispanic heritage, were sharing stories of influential spanish leaders like this one from toast, helena gomez. Im proud to be an hispanic latina. I represent whats possible for a lot of young latinas out there, including my own daughters. Theres so much rich history and culture and music and family that i would love to share with my nonhispanic colleagues. When i think about the fact that hispanics will be such an important part of our communities, of our workforce in the future, i think its really important to bring them into the fold and really enrich the conversations that were having every day in our communities and in the workplace. Opportunity is using data to create a competitive advantage. Its raising capital to help companies change the world. Opportunity is making the dream of Home Ownership a reality. And driving the world forward to a Greener Energy future. [applause] sometimes the only thing standing between you and opportunity is someone who can make the connection. At ice, we connect people to opportunity. Got a bull call on disney from Raymond James desk grabbing our attention. The firm initiating disney and warner bros. Discovery, at outperform. They think several streamers are primed for better Free Cash Flow generation. Disney is the least exposed of the three in their view. Joining us to discuss is Julia Boorstin and disney could use the shout out, julia. Yeah. This is a company that is facing so many headwind. People have been focusing more on the challenges lately. Raymond james in this hefty note digs into all the challenges and also the opportunities for the Media Industry as we see this transition away from the linear tv business, that was very profitable, but declining over to the streaming business, which is very competitive but has a lot of growth potential. The reason why they call out disney in particular is because of a couple of key things. Number one, the fact they have all of these different streaming services, disney plus, hulu and espn plus, is an advantage. They can also bundle them together to reduce churn and use those to hold onto their subscribers. They also say they believe disney has the best ip and they also have the parks, which is such a key engine and a key cash flow generator. They also put some numbers on exposure to linear tv, trying to prove the point that disneys not as exposed as, say, paramount. 54 of revenue, warner bros. , 44 . Disney, 29 . I havent seen that breakdown. Does it alleviate concerns for investors . Yeah, that really illustrates how much of disneys business is about the parks on one hand and then also about the box office. They know that disney had been really the Box Office Leader before the pandemic. They have sort of given up that number one leadership position but they talk about the value of the ip, both that they can exploit across these platforms from the parks to studio, et cetera, and how that helps diversify their revenue away from that reliance on the shrinking linear tv business. Julia, is the sense regarding the likes of Drew Barrymore and Jennifer Hudson adding to the thoughts that the strike could go for longer or there may be urgency to get more progress done . Theres definitely a feeling of urgency, carl. Hearing more and more stories of people who are impacted from the strikes who are not members of the writers and actors guild but forced to take out loans to pay rent because the whole ecosystem here in l. A. Is being so much impacted. I do know theres a sense of hope that maybe the talks this week will really help resolve things. Theres hope maybe the Writers Guild can get an agreement and a compromise there, that will then push the Screen Actors Guild to sit down as well and have a compromise. I think theres been so much focus on that Drew Barrymore situation and the fact theres pressure on both sides and now a lot of people are just hoping theres resolution to these strikes. Yeah. A difficult obviously the Business Model intricacies became clear in that particular episode. Thanks. Lets shift gear and talk chips. Deutsche upgrading micron to buy today. They say the worst of the semi cycle is behind us and point to dram prices as indication of turnaround. Lets bring in kristina partsinevelos. Its very specific to those memory prices. They believe theres an upcycle in memory prices. Dram is dynamic memory shut off or is not in use once power is shut off, but specifically theres been bullish calls. Its not just deutsche bank, which they increased their price target to 85 and have a buy on this name. Barclays last week as well. The reason being that many of these analyst sell side believe memory prices are starting to upswing. Were seeing that digitimes, a popular asian publication, they said even today that youre starting to see the prices increase. That will benefit Companies Like micron. The second thing is samsung is a major foundry. They have recently cut production because they want to get rid of excess inventory. When they cut production, that helps prices, supply and demand. And also you have the demand for a. I. Servers. A. I. Servers are going to need more of this high band width memory that falls into the dram category. That should be a strength in demand for a company like micron. A lot of viewers when they watch, they hear all these acronyms with semiconductors and it gets really confusing. Hopefully we can bring up the full screen in terms of the explanation. You have dram, dynamic memory. Think of it as used for any type of apps or algorithms. The moment power is shut off, its no longer in use. Its considered faster and cheaper versus nan memory, which is nonvolatile and its saved, all of your passwords on a usb key. Thats considered nan. What these analysts are saying is theres a lot of strength right now in the dram market. Why were seeing the subsequent, and it should benefit names like micron. I want to point out mizuho put out a small note, a few lines, saying they like Western Digital because that company focuses on the nan part, the nonvolatile. They say theres still a lot of upside in the near term for this name. So, theres its a little confusing with all the acronyms but it seems like right now memory prices could see an upswing, even though were seeing weakness in other sectors like semicap equipment, even names like nvidia have been falling down, all those a. I. Plays. Yeah. And that initiation of arm at underperform at bernstein, i think the chip business is confusing all the time. Thanks. Kristina partsinevelos. Instacart getting ready to price its ipo tonight. What investors need to know about that debut and what arms action can tell us about valuations. Plus, programming note. Dont miss a cnbc special. Cnbc leaders ken griffin with new unheard sound from our interview last week. That airs tonight 8 00 p. M. Right here on cnbc. Heres a sneak preview. I did, of course, ask ken about the new movie dumb money and how hes portrayed in it. I havent seen the movie so i cant really comment on that. I have a small vignette, about 90 seconds of film time. Its a great story. I hope they produced a great movie. I will absolutely see it. And i hope it has a lot of important lessons for american investors. You want to be part of making a call on the right business. Thats going to be defining tomorrow. You want to be the investor in nvidia. You want to be the investor in apple and jobs return. You dont want to be the investor in a spec to bubble that eventually bursts. Thats not where you want to be. ella fashion moves fast. Setting trends is our business. We need to scale with customer demand. In real time. jen so we partner with verizon to take our operations to the next level. marquis with a custom private 5g network. ella with verizon business, we get more control of production, efficiencies, and greater agility. marquis so our customers get what they want, when they want it. jen its not just a network. Its enterprise intelligence. vo learn more. Its your vision, its your verizon. The big tech ipo is back. Arm, instacart this week. Now another venturebacked company. Theyre not all going public at sky high valuations. Our deirdre bosa has a look at 2023 ipo valuations and just how much is different for todays techcheck, deirdre. You said it, the ipo market is back, but so far it looks a lot different than it did a few years ago. One this wave will include some down rounds, meaning companies will raise capital beneath their prior valuations. Instacart is going public at a fraction of its peak valuation, which bernstein calls reasonable and even conservative if it can return to better growth. Theres also clavio, an Enterprise Software play and it looks to price its listing just under its last financing round in 2022. It would be another down round. There was arms successful ipo. That was considered an up round. But its trickier since softbank has been the sole shareholder since they took it private in 2017. And its falling today as they consider that hefty premium to other semi companies. This difference this time around, theres more scarcity. The floats are relatively tiny. On average companies have sold 16 to 29 of their shares in ipos over the last decade. Arm with 10 and instacart and klaviyo, 8 . It also means new investors will have fewer rights related to voting power and corporate governance. One Reason Companies are floating less is because the current market is seen as more fragile for new listings. The companies are putting less of themselves out there and increasingly seeking the security, the backing of Cornerstone Investors. Arm courted big tech customers like nvidia and amazon as potential anchor customers. Instacart said norway sovereign planned to invest. Now, a Cornerstone Investor agrees to have their name published in the companys ipo prospectus in return for guaranteed allocation of shares. The hope is that may support the price or encourage other Retail Investors to get in. You could call this derisking. They are the beguinea pigs of ts ipo cycle. Theyll do anything to make it successful, even if that means raising less money. The question is will other ipo candidates see this as an attractive model or say, well sit it out, maybe well raise money at higher valuations later. Thats the question ipo candidates in the pipeline will be asking themselves over the next weeks. I was going to ask, who are they . Who else is in the pipeline . Can they sort of come up with these Quality Controls that appear more necessary in this environment . Well, some might argue klaviyo is more important because you have more Enterprise Software companies in the wings. Data bricks had a rare upround in the private market, so that could be a candidate. Many Enterprise Software companies of the last years are not looking at up rounds. Theyre looking at tougher comps in the Public Markets. Thats why theyre judging these so closely. Youve also got discord, some consumer names as well. Theyre all facing that idea. We talked about this valuation disparity. They think theyre worth more than what the Public Market wants to price them at. Are they going to wait or tap private markets again, which is also undergoing its revaluation. Fanatics is another one im watching in the consumer world. Thank you. Straight ahead, well talk to bains head of technology, whats ahead for dealmaking. Plus, is declining attendance on broadway the biggest recession indicator that nobodys watching . Im sure carls watching it. Well talk about it. Every day, businesses everywhere are asking is it possible . With comcast business. It is. Is it possible to use predictive monitoring to address operations issues . We can help with that. Can we provide health care virtually anywhere . We can help with that, too. Is it possible to survey foot traffic across all of our locations . Yeah absolutely. With the advanced connectivity and intelligence of global secure networking from comcast business. Its not just possible. Its happening. Were not writers, but we help you shape your financial story. Were not an airline, but our Network Connects global businesses across nearly 160 markets. Were not a startup, but our Innovation Labs use new technologies to help keep your information secure. Were not architects, but we help build stronger communities. Were not just any bank. We are citi. You founded your Kayak Company because you love the ocean not spreadsheets. You need to hire. I need indeed. Indeed you do. Indeed instant match instantly delivers quality candidates matching your job description. Visit indeed. Com hire some of the best trends in tech. Bane out, and Key Highlights include a crowded buyers market ahead, and it budgets remain strong. When it comes to a. I. , a lot of industries and jobs are made for animation. And lets go to david. I wanted to start with some of the macro takeaways here, and when we go into a recession, thats one place we see companies cut. We have seen several years of cios reflecting cuts in budgets, necessary pullbacks, et cetera, less so than historic downturns because tech has become so essential to the way we operate businesses, and we are seeing sentiment turning more positive and increasing in budgets this year. Because of a. I. . Well, its a number of things, and the austerity measures in the last 18 months, but, yes, a. I. Is a huge driver of demand at this point. We talk about more of the montaization, and people say wait until next year, and they point to q1, and does that seem ambition to you . I actually think, you know, theres a lot of technologies where we might advise a wait and see or a posture of wait until maturity, and this is not one of them, and we see a. I. Uniquely disruptive and uniquely capable of driving innovation, and the hold back is the time it takes to redesign your business processes to make use of these new technologies. I think you will you are already seeing the cross in our client base the applications of this new capability. Think about the last time you were given a tool that would allow you to improve Business Productivity by 8 or 10 . For some of those macro bulls, and for those that argue its going to provide support to markets and global economies over the next three to five years, you dont think that is misplaced . Not at all. We will have a roadmap of innovation, that will likely last a decade. I think theres a broad range of places i think it will, first and foremost, drive the efficiency in every industry, and theres a number of attractive startups as well, and if you just follow the most prevalent use cases of Code Development and acceleration, and things like knowledge assistance for customer handling and other applications, i think you will find yourself with plenty of investment opportunities. People argue that proponents of a. I. And the evolution of the Technology Want to down play the affects of the employment, and by that i mean the jobs that are going to get lost. Do you think there will be a number of people that might be displaced . Theres no shortage of analyst that published impact assessments and head count numbers, and we will see that transition historically, and transitions have created new opportunities as well, and we are seeing that as well. Reskilling, redeployment and so forth will be pretty important, i think, in this wave. Absolutely, its going to be a significant disruption to daytoday workers. Everybody says call centers, and i feel like thats the poster child for the jobs that will be disrupted or replaced by a. I. What other industries do you think we should watch there . Yeah, i think, you know, i will say first of all that we are seeing the disruption develop quite broadly, whether you are in health care, retail or oil and gas and you are one of our clients, you are deploying generative a. I. , and its a Software Deployment acceleration, and knowledge assistance where its being used to handle customer handling or self discovery, and you will find the most important places, and if you think about industries that turns out to be highly concentrated those activities turn out to be highly concentrated. And Tech Companies are quite impacted. But are those Companies Hiring fewer workers or laying off workers as a result . I think the ones that are furthest along in the journey this is a complex journey, and the ones furthest along in the journey have already done so and you will see more in the next three to five years. And there was a roundtable last week, and it was about whether or not regulation acts as a drag to innovation. I wonder if you think whether or not regulators have a handle on the technology to put a drag on what is already happening, obviously . They have the authority and power to do so. It would be in my experience unprecedented for them to move that quickly, and certainly over a threeyear horizon, i think regulation will become very, very important. Thank you for joining us with the insights. We look forward to hearing back from you. Thank you. Wall street is buzzing about broadway shows today and how attendance might be a indicator. Theres a number of people going to broadway shows and they have been falling faster than normal in recent weeks. You can see there the 2023 line. They will be monitoring to see if it picks up in the fall. They say its important to watch because Consumer Services are an important reason why the economy has held up despite the fed hikes. You talk about goods and services all the time. This fits right into that . Why do you think that is . You follow broadway closer than anybody i know . The consensus is new york lost attendance of suburbanites, and some argue because its a lack of hits, and maybe broadway got by on novelty in the pandemic, and tourism is easier to predict. Its a shame for new york city. We need that. It brings in a lot of revenue. Look at the markets here as we head out. We are around session highs. Energy leads the gains as crude Oil Continues to climb. We are around 92 a barrel. And arm is selling off today, but still obviously had a strong start. Its off the lows of the day. Of course, the big event of the week will be the fed decision on wednesday. We are not expecting any major changes from fed chair powell, but the tone will be important and so will the dots on the forecast of where they think the rates will be going next year. Yeah, and we are in an ear earnings vacuum, and its about pmis and housing this week. Yeah, we will wait to see about government shutdowns and student loans, and its a little early to tell if it will drag our economy down. Well said. Lets get to the judge and the half. Front is center this hour, a return of volatility. Why some say we are in for a rocky stretch for stocks. The Investment Committee sizing up the marchets next move. Josh brown, shannon, Joe Terranova and steve weiss joining me for the hour. Theres the s p 500, good for onethird of 1 . And the tenyear note yield 432. Thats the story of the day, weiss, we are mostly hanging in there. Yep