Transcripts For CNBC Squawk Box 20161125

Complete report. And macys Ceo Terry Lundgren will join us at 7 00. And jerry storch will also join us live. Stocksindicating opening higher. Ri the dow would open higher by 52, the nasdaq, 3 1 2, and the s p 1 1. 63. In asia, hang seng, higher bay half percent. European equities have been relatively flat. Right now all are lower. The italian market, theres a big referendum being held on sunday, november 4 t december 4. The economist endorsed a no vote to telling italians when they go to the polls to vote no. The underlying issue is this doesnt speak to the core issues that the italian people face. If they vote no, what happens here . How does this spin out . Everybody thinks its gloom and doom. I dont think people believe that anymore in the wake of brachial plexus and the election. So you tell me what youre thinking, ill think the opposite. The elite think it will be horrific, the polls say no. Which makes me think yes. Thats way too confusing. If they vote no, there will be a general election, and that general election will be about whether they stay in the euro. It would be stupid for italy to leave the euro. They get the advantages of germany being in the euro, the cheaper currency. They have not done the reforms which may help them do better. They havent grown since they joined the euro. Do you think thats a result of it . Im thinking so, but also lack of reforms. This is a tough medicine story. If italy were to reform it would do better, but it had a chacnce not to reform to get the cheap euro through germany. You understand the logic there, that if germany gets is part of the euro, it makes the euro have a higher value than it otherwise would. Yeah. Yeah. Okay. Doesnt that make italian stuff more expensive . I guess it might. Next. Let me think about that. The next big countdown for the markets is the fed meeting. Poli policymakers appear confident that the economy is strengthening enough to warrant a hike. The feeling is the fed will be ready to raise rates when they meet in december. The advance report on trade comes out at 8 30 a. M. Eastern. You may not be excited about this, but they have come out earlier now in the cycle with the advance trade deficit. The markets are glomming on this. They trade this market now more than the fuller number. The advanced trade deficit than the actual trade deficit . They get it out earlier. It gives you the goods part, not the services part. Opec leaders will gather in vienna next week to discuss cuts. Iran and iraq may balk at the cuts. You can just repeat this story over an over again. Its groundhog day. Why would the saudis go for big cuts which would raise the price of oil, help u. S. Ill production . It would also help the saudis who are running short on money. This is in that regard. I can ask any question, you can help. Its not true. Youre three for three already. Lets check out the price of oil now. 47. 53. Right in the zone. Drum said he was working hard on thanksgiving to keep another u. S. Manufacturer from moving production to mexico. Trump tweeting yesterday trying to get Carrier Air Conditioning Company to stay in indiana. Making progress. Will know soon. Earlier this year carrier announced it was moving its furnace plant in indianapolis to mexico, taking 1400 jobs with it. Trump made several references during the campaign saying if it moved to mexico the company would pay a hefty tax on imports to the u. S. Carrier has confirmed that they had discussions with the Incoming Administration but has nothing to announce at this time. I talked to several manufacturers, its not just the trade agreement, its the cost of labor and everything that makes it so much cheaper to do stuff in mexico. By a factor of what . Some guys were like five or ten. There was no way on certain things that was manufactured that it couldnt be automated. Even if they could, it was still difficult to justify u. S. Production. Carrier is part of united technologies. Can you imagine being the ceo of thanksgiving, and the president of the United States is pressuring you youre a huge free market advocate what do you think about that pressure . I think its awful. The reason jobs move, it makes the company more competitive. You have to ask why arent the jobs here in the u. S. More competitive and work on those factors, instead of stopping the walls of capital. Its like when politicians think theyll wave a wand and say capital will go here because i want it to. Capital goes where its valued. You cant fight those forces. And the idea of putting tariffs on imports coming back to the u. S. . Im not a fan of tariffs. Its frustrating for americans that we export a lot of goods, we try to export to certain parts of the world, and they put up barriers, or the way they treat our intellectual property is wrong. So this is going to be a threehour version of the old tonight show. I will play ed mcmahon. Ill throw things your way and youll answer them. 4 for 4. Wilbur ross expected to be named commerce secretary. The billion naire is said to be getting the position. He is known for buying failed companies. I have an opinion on this. Tell me. I love wilbur, had opportunities to talk to wilbur. It troubles me to think that wilbur will be involved with things which will have huge implications for his companies that bothers me. Wilbur has a huge sprawling empire, and i think hes a totally honest individual. I dont quite get how he can do this or do that and not somehow affect his company. You should call in, weilbur. Hes a smart guy, friend of the show. But i dont get how the conflicts will be able to be assuaged. Thats my issue. Im done. Do i read now . Yes. Says steve. That would be me. Many americans are sleeping off thanksgiving, some are at work, others are looking for a bargain. This is a live shot right now of the mall of america, just outside of the twin cities in minnesota. Thats busy. You think thats busy . Its before 6 00 in the morning out there. Right now we want to head to dayton, ohio. Thats where we find Courtney Reagan this morning. Every year she gets to go home and still report. Im on to you. Lets hear your report. Well understand why youre really in dayton, ohio. Its my favorite day of the year. I love black friday. I swear i would come out here even if i wasnt reporting. Its kind of an experience for a lot of people. The big box retailers are headlining the early shopping. Then folks come out to the mall even those people that say they rarely come here anymore at all. We have not gone to sleep yet. Really . Yes. We had our turkey, moved out at 6 30 and have been going strong. I probably only come during this time. I dont usually shop at the mall. Its probably been at least six months. Ive been to walmart and kohls and target and i think thats it. Then headed here. Targets ceo, Brian Cornell, says the store response has been positive. He calls traffic strong. Hover boards sold out quickly along with the 10 teddy bears. Apple products, game pads, dyson vacuums. There were a lot of fitbits and jbl speakers still left over. Traffic and sales at target. Com up double digits. It is also walmart. Coms big the days so far. Their biggest sellers, tvs, cookware, drone drones, pajamas. Lots of variety in the lines, but everyone was making it through in about 15 minutes. And captify, which is a search engine, says gaming is number one when it comes to product searches. With the xbox, nintendo 3 ds and the play station 4 the top searches. Black friday biggest discounts are what folks are really looking for. Right now its the point at the mall where some shoppers take a break and come home, go back out, but everybody is optimistic and stores are saying the traffic is about the same as last year if not a little bit higher at this point in the day. Back to you guys in new york city. We know youll be ever vigilant, thanks, courtney. Its cool. I was born there. She does a great job. You were born there . I was born in dayton, ohio. Big army base there, right . My dad was involved. And a jesuit school. We have a great guest host today, dana telsey is here to give her retail forecast. When i was growing up, my father explained black friday this way, this is the first day of the year where retailers went into the black and became profitable. Is that still true or has the Holiday Shopping season gotten longer . Holiday shopping season has gotten longer, begins earlier. Feels like halloween is not really halloween anymore because it immediately turns into the Holiday Season. The other thing thats different, speaking of that word promotions. We saw promotions all over when courtney was at the mall. Retailers plan those pro momoti. Ecommerce is helping to driver sales, stores help drive profits. The harmonization of physical and digital, its happening, you need both. Some day our kids will look back and say you are looking at bricks and mortar as if they were different . Is thats what happening . This is the year when more people buy online and pick up in store. When they go to the store, they typically spend 30 more. Thats whats changing. Its changing the land of retail. Will it be a good season . I think it will be a decent season. When you look since 2009 theres been an average increase of 3. 4 . We should see around 3. 3 , could be 3. 8 if you exclude walmart what do you have to buy . Velvet . Youre right. Velvet is everywhere. Whats up with velvet . All clothing coming out in velvet. Velvet shoes, dresses, hats. I remember george on seinfeld wanted to be ensconced in velvet. Do you remember that . No. Buy it for your wife. Thats good to know. If it doesnt matter where you buy it, does it matter when . No, its getting closer and clos closer. But is black friday going to be outdated along is it outdated now . Its a bit outdated, but its still the unofficial kickoff to the season given that it really starts back by halloween. Theres a buzz and aura. Its a promotional tool to use. Yeah. Orient towards a seingle day. Families are together. Going out and hitting the stores. We see that. Have you checked your channels this morning yet . Ive been out there. I just had danielle at kohls. You do this every year. You pick up your thing and read from your blackberry. Were on a smartphone now. And i got this keyboard. Lets talk about that later. What are your channels saying . Kohls, danielle is at kohls that was busy. Serang was at best buy. These are your employees. Of course. Joe is in boston at the mall, said that was busy. Target getting traffic. I was in macys last night, you could feel it, it was a winter wonderland. Victorias secret, crowded address can be. And urban outfitters, check out calvin klein, its busy. Check out the crowds last night going into macys. I just went no best buy about a month ago, the service is fantastic now. They changed that whole thing. If you go to a bricks and mortar store, you better have service there. The instore shops of different brands. The other one who is doing better lately, have you seen coach . Look at their instore shop on 5th avenue. Its the coach house. Does this make you buy any of the stocks . Do you buy macys, do you buy coach . I would buy some of the stocks. Our names are up over 16 since november 4th. Always what happens post black friday weekend, was it not as good . Will we have a long season . They may come in and that will give the opportunity. If we get lower taxes, more consumer spending, that sets retail up for a good year in 2017. We talked about who is doing well. Should we save for later who is not doing well . Thats a tease. Michelle has tout taught me about tv. So tune in for later about who is not doing well. The dow and s p 500, you know this, at record levels. Should we expect the rally to roll on into december . Joining me is rob morgan from sethi financial group. He said his numbers point to no rate hike really . And rich steinberg is here. Lets start with the no rate hike. Whats up with that . Steve, you quoted me a lot in your fed survey. I have. You know im not afraid to be in the minority. I think fed chair yellen telegraphed this in october when she gave her inflation overshoot speech. Even though the minutes yesterday said that the fed is continuing to prepare us for a hike, i dont think theyll do it in december. Rich, you want to have at that . The tenyear has gone up from 1. 75 to 2. 4. I think the bond market will go bonkers if the fed does not start to raise here. I think the bond market has already taken care of the decision for the fed. I think youre right. Rob, if the fed is not going to hike, it better start walking it back now and put expectations more in line with where they are. Thats been a critical determinant for the Federal Reserve over the last several years, where is the market priced . Theyve been keen to not upset the market at least on fed day. How far can the fed funds rate move from where the market is now . When rich said they already have it priced in. Maybe more than one price, maybe two. I agree with rich, they should raise rates in december. Certainly the bond market is telling us that. The fed is gaining ammo to fight the next recessionment but i think shes probably in the minority now on the committee, but i think from yellens comments she seems adamant about this. Rich, i want to use this time to explore the contrarian side of the rally. I want to make sure were not missing anything. Everybody seems so optimistic right now. I dont want to work against that optimism on a holiday, day after a holiday, but is there something that could go wrong here . Is the market too optimistic about policies from the president elect . Is there something were missing in terms of valuations that could derail this rally . Im always on the show as a valuation guy. Its hard to come up with s p values now because im not sure if the rhetoric will equal reality in washington. We know well get tax rate cuts, have lregulatory issues, but we also have a strong issue. Traders have basically hijacked investors. We had a parabolic move in small cap. 23 of that is financials. The flow of capitals from etfs and parity traders and momentum traders may have brought the market up further. We could go further up going into the Holiday Season. But well be borrowing from peter to pay paul into next years returns. So we are reevaluating our s p target. We were at 2100. Its overshot that this year. Next year, were at 2300. Evaluating what will happen when dana was talking about the consumer, well have to see, what kind of tax rates we get through, and how much the consumer will step up. Rich, when you talk about those levels for stocks what are you assuming for yields . Where is the tenyear going . You have already seen a pull back on some of the bond proxy dividend stocks from this. The market priced in lower longer. So we think at 3 the tenyear starts to become competition for stocks. As an endowment or foundation, if you have a 4 spend policy you can put money into the tenyear and start to get closer to where the spend policy could be. Rob, same question. Give us have you thought through the contrarian side of this rally . Is there something we need to be wary of or miss iing among this unbridled optimism here . Sure, the consensus expectation is that s p 500 earnings next year will grow double digits. Thats caused me to have a target on the s p of 2400. Wow. So the contrarian side of it is that we dont see that type of growth. In recent years, analysts have been optimistic to start several of the previous few years. Then they reined in expectations as the year has gone along. I guess i guess im believing ive drunk the koolaid on the double digit growth. If earnings dont appear, you can worry about valuations, and there is a big number baked in now when it comes to what the expectations are for profits. Thanks, guys. Sad news from the world of entertainment. Hollywood has lost one of its most iconic tv moms. Florence henderson died at the age of 82 there heart fail areas. She started in show business address a sias a singer but will always be known for playing carol brady on the brady bunch. One of my favorite lines was dont use the word stinker, peter. Coming up, could the dollar derail the rally . We look at how the currency markets could impact stogs, p plus more shopping, more retail. But first, this day in history. U. S. Dollar at an eightmonth high today. Joining us is dara maher. The dollar index at a 14year high recently. Its amazing. Theres only one or two questions in your world. How much higher does it keep going higher, and however does it go . I think it will keep going higher addres the u. S. Yields k going higher. You were asking earlier what could derail it . For me the one that hits home is optimism in terms of what trump can bring in. We are focusing on one leg of the trump agenda we have homeland, investment, markets can only concentrate on one thing at a time. Maybe because theres too many men in markets. Maybe its more than one thing, tax reform and infrastructure spending. Thats two. Are we in danger of cherry picking the good bits . Of course you can extract these things. Thats what the dollar is doing. At the same time you have the fed hike nailed in. Does that prevent you from a forecast at this point . Where are we at with the euro . I think we stick around 1. 05. We have the italian referendum coming up, a couple banana skins in europe, but ultimately europe is not breaking up. We wiwill discount that europe trend. Dollaryen feels like its getting away a bit. I think that gets capped around 1. 15. What happens in europe, this is good for europe, but its taken on the chin of the u. S. When it comes to companies. Is this going to help european economies . How long did the ecb try to engineer a weaker euro . Draghi was talking that down for years. Donald trump did it. In a nanosecond. Its an echo to that dollar move. Thats great. The not so good is you are worried about italy, france, austrian election. You dont wawant people who wil there. The your euro faces an existl threat can i point out this is a reporter who is laying the ground work for taking several trips to europe next year by making this story important . Im not saying youre wrong. I want to point out the underlying current. Like courtney being in dayton, you want to get to france, italy. Rome is nice in december. Rome is nice in december. Sorry to interrupt. You dont think she can shop at 1. 05 . The euro always faced this challenge. Plenty want to say the euro will break up for a, b, c, d were at e. I think we might be at m at the moment. We will get through this again. The italian referendum well get through, the french elections. When you have a big move like this, theres collateral damage. Which currencies out there have been taken along for this ride and it doesnt make sense for them. Em. Emerging markets. So you think theres a purchase in their assets or in the currency itself . Em gets help with weaker currency. You dont want a currency falling so quickly that people are saying wrath other than making assets more attractive, its making yours se assets le attractive. Thats what theyre having to contend with. That would be the collateral damage. Mr. Maher, thank you very much. Not to be confused with bill maher. No relation, and i dont get paid like he does. That one says kelly now they just changed it. Steve. Shoppers are looking for bargains. We want to know if the consumer is more confident in 2016 verses a year ago. Terry lundgren joins us at the top of the hour with an early report on black friday foot traffic. As we head to break, a look at wednesdays s p 500 winners and losers. That was wonderful. Bravo. Great. Pretty good. Wasnt bad. Parts werent bad. I didnt like it. Was bad. Was awful. Get them away. Boo i have access to the oil markets and gold markets. Okay. Im plugged into equities trade confirmed and i have Global Access 24 7. Meaning i can do what i need to do, then i can focus on what i want to do. Visit learnfuturestoday. Com to see what adding futures can do for you. They are the natural borns enemy of the way things are. Yes, ideas are scary, and messy and fragile. But under the proper care, they become something beautiful. Come on, wake up come on, why ya sleepin . Come on what time is it . Its go time. Come on. Lets go, lets go, lets go. Woooo hoooo yeah i feel like i went to bed an hour ago. Ill make the cocoa. Get a great offer on the car of your grownup dreams at the mercedesbenz winter event. Its the look on their faces that make it all worthwhile. Thank you santa now lease the 2017 c300 for 389 a month at your local mercedesbenz dealer. The market. Redict but through good times and bad. At t. Rowe price. Weve helped our investors stay confident for over 75 years. Call us or your advisor. T. Rowe price. Invest with confidence. Welcome back. I cant wait for wilfred to get here to enjoy the christmas music. Black friday is here, officially kicking off the Holiday Shopping season. Here to talk trends and the state of the consumer, matt chase. What are you hearing . Happy black friday. Is that a holiday . You wish somebody happy black friday . It is. Happy thanksgiving, happy black friday, cybermonday. Coming off good, strong numbers from october. The survey work weve done indicates well have almost record breaking crowds this year. 137 Million People out there over the weekend. 74 will be out shopping today. Some great deals. Were looking for a strong holiday. 74 of the 139 million will shop today . Yes. The stories online are 59 of americans will shop on this Holiday Weekend. Over the next three days. How does that compare to last year . About on target. Same . Higher than last year. Overall sales will be up. Consumers will spend more. As a buckeye its hard to say the team up north, the university of michigan came out on friday with good numbers. Very positive. The strong numbers from october, the commerce put those out. For the First Time Ever weve seen 25 of people say they plan to spend more this year than last year. Have the retailers i want this question to dana and matt, have the retailers hired the people for these crowds coming . Thats one thing weve seen changing. As the nature of shopping changed, as people adopted new strategies and tactics to deal with the crowds and things consumers want, buy online, pick up on store, you had to reconfigure parking lots, the insides of stores, have different kinds of associates and staff on duty this weekend. This doesnt begin to address the things you see in the distribution centers. What are you hearing . The same thing. They hired the people . They hired the people, trained the people. And what about christmas on a sunday . Really big saturday. Thats a good thing. Its colder this year than last year. Matt, lets get serious for a minute. Theres a new president coming in. Theres a threat of tariffs. A lot of your people source a lot of their stuff overseas. How concerned are ceos of retail conglomerates and Retail Stores that there could be tariffs. A lot of policies need to be addressed when the president elect is sworn in, the new Congress Comes back. Theres a lot of positive things we can talk about. No one pays higher corporate taxes than retailers. The devil is always in the details. So when you have a consumer economy that imports 2 trillion worth of goods, and its driven by consumer spending, if you tax imports, it will create a question. Sfrnl is that a yes . Its something we worry about. Will this cause you to change your valuations on companies . Consumers wanted lower prices and retail verers have to figurt how to get more profit for those items. What about so talking about the election impact, the potential policies under donald trump, in the immediate wake of the election, is that 59 slightly higher than last year because of the election and the boisterous response from markets . Clearly this was a Campaign Season and an election unlike any that weve seen. It was an enormous distraction for consumers. It was tough for retailers to break through the clutter and for consumers to think about anything else. What we saw was there was a good bump. We think theres been a nice run up. Any difference between rhett and blue states . Not that weve seen. But it will be interesting when retailers report their sales. They get it both ways. The red states will be buying because theyre happy. The blou staue states will be b as therapy. Theres a bit of that, i suppose. Coming up, avoiding porch pirates. Every year millions of americans have packages stolen there their front door. Find out how to avoid being a victim. Squawk box will be back in a moment. Welcome back. U. S. Equity futures at this hour, were doing good. Up 50 points on the dow. 1. 8 or 1. 37 on the s p. Not much on the nasdaq. More importantly, reserves have arrived. Reserves. Thanks. Wilfred frost. Welcome. Good morning. To rescue us. How was your first thanksgiving in the United States . It was very lovely, thank you. Went up, saw a tiny bit of the parade. I think watching it on tv is easier. Hard to get close. Very nice day. Relaxing. Tell us about your meal . I didnt actually have turkey. Despite all the planning we had done. Very nice, we didnt have turkey. If you want citizenship, i think you have to have five years of eating turkey on thanksgiving . That it . Thankfully you have a visa system that allows me to be here without s without citizenship. A tougher visa system than you may think. Wilfred frost is here for the rest of the show. Last year 23 million americans had packages stolen off their doorstep, according to our next guest. How do you protect those Holiday Gifts you order online and avoid being a victim of a porch pirate . Joining us is lori torres from parcel pending. I bet you have a product that helps. We do. Good morning. Thanks for having me. What is it . We have electronic smart lockers to manage packages across the country at apartment communities, because porch pirates are a huge problem for couriers, homeowners, apartment renter s. How often does it happen . Daily. Its a big problem. 1. 5 billion packages will get delivered between now and christmas. Its a huge problem. Do u. P. S. , fedex, who do you pitch to . Do you pitch to apartment complexes . To the Delivery Companies . Are you pitching to amazon . Directly to consumers . How do you sell this . Parcel pending is at apartment communities, all the couriers are using us. Fedex, u. P. S. , amazon, all will deliver packages into the lockers. It notifies the resident they have a parcel pending. They can pick up that package 24 7 at their convenience. Its safe and secure. What if i dont live in an apartment complex that has one of these. General tips for somebody with a real porch and a front door . Theres a lot of ways to protect packages. One of those ways is we see a lot of video cameras being placed outside the residence. Lockers are across the company. Some providers like fedex, u. P. S. , amazon have lockers as well. You can ship your item to a secure locker. There are different ways to protect those packages, like have it shipped to your office or to a neighbor. James at our office does so many packages. It happens daily. How many incidents of package pirating are there . Last year there were 23 million packages that were reported as stolen. How many packages were delivered . Last year, total packages, my gosh, billions. Billions of packages and 23 millions. So theres a small chance your package will be stolen. Thats right. Its true, you want to make sure you have a secure way to have your package, thats why theres different sliolutions now. In the big cities like new york, l. A. , chicago, theres locker systems throughout the city. And u. P. S. Is doing designated ste centers to pick up. Also also the pit bull. To have a dog. The pit bull, yeah. Thats Old Technology thing. Thank you. It may be a small problem, but if its your problem, it stinks. Theres also insurance. I want people to know the cost its not there for christmas. Michelle, youre a data person. Were getting yelled out by rob. Thats why you buy online and pick up in store. I like the phrase porch pirates. Billions of packages, 23 million stolenful. Dont let the facts get in the way. Still to come on squawk box, how one Small Clothing retailer competes with the big boys. Thats coming up next. This car is traveling over 200 miles per hour. To win, every millisecond matters. Both on the track and thousands of miles away. With the help of at t, Red Bull Racing can share critical information about every inch of the car from virtually anywhere. Brakes are getting warm. Confirmed, daniel you need to cool your brakes. Understood, brake bias back 2 clicks. Giving them the agility to have speed precision. Because no one knows like at t. You are gonna love this place. Im more of a milkshake guy. Then id say expand your horizons. Im very openminded no no, expand your horizons. Its the name of a smoothie. Yeah, i see they have bee pollen. Two of my favorite allergies. Trust me, john grows half this stuff in his own backyard. Its true. Two of my usuals, please. Add spirulina. Is that a. Noodle . Its his first time. Mmm. Thats almost as good as a milkshake. Cheers get together and shop small on Small Business saturday. Welcome back to squawk box on cnbc. Look at your screen right now. We have a chopper standing over flying over best buy in paramus, new jersey. And there is a line out the door. That looks like good news. Doesnt it, dana . Well discuss black friday. But small retailers also important to focus on. They themselves get a boost on black friday. Joining us now, paul tribble. Thanks very much for joining us. Morning. Your Luxury Shirt Company founded six, seven years ago. First thing i know from reading into your notes, its a really big day for you. The percentage of total sales over this weekend is very high that you expect to gain. Yes. The last two months of the year well do about 40 of the entire year. The majority comes in this seven, eightday period. Black friday is where it begins. Were 35 off today. Were an Internet Retailer but we pulled discounts up like a lot of people. The next seven days is important for us. And the main route of your sales is direct customer online sales. It is. We started as an online business. But since then weve already diversified our own stores in midatlantic. Were also in nordstrom and Specialty Stores throughout the country. Want to touch on the election. Thats been something you cited as affecting sales. Is it picking up . I think it is. The election was a distraction. I think now whether youre happy or devastated youve had two weeks to let it all set in and people are waking up saying the economy is not as bad as we thought it was and were ready to spend. In terms of policies moving forward, how this could affect your business and consumers business, you manufacture shirts in europe and some here but theyre much more expensive. Do you think theres a bit of a wakeup call who expect its easy to bring jobs back and its not going to have effects on consumer pricing . I think there is. Its a different economy than it was 50 years ago. For us we have factories in italy and poland and turkey and scotland and the United States. And so, you know, i think the idea of sort of disruptive trade policy and tariffs to bring things back to the United States can be difficult. For us we bought the second oldest shirt maker in the United States last year. We are making sure its in the u. S. , but its a smaller portion of what we do. Its very high end. What percentage and whats the difference in terms of the cost . Its about 2 of what we do. Sales. Yeah. We do that in the United States. Small factory in richmond, virginia. Majority of what we do is ready to wear. O go online, get a nice shirt. That would be 145. In virginia it starts about 300. You work with a master pattern maker. How much of that difference is the spoke part which is more expensive to have a shirt made for you . The made in the u. S. Is going to be premium. Labor cost. And then just the customization there. I would say you are going to get a significant bump in terms of labor cost. Give us three things that donald trump can do to make it easier for you to manufacture in the u. S. To manufacture in the u. S. , i think its one of the things is immigration. You know, i think were talking about having people more people come in. But we need people who know how to sew. You cant find those people. Thats more immigration. Right now coming in from the polish factory to teach us in the u. S. In terms of how to weve lost that. In the 1970s we did 70 of our clothing here. Now we do about 4 of our clothing in the United States. It takes training. What else . What about tax cuts . Tax cuts are going to be helpful. Thats going to put money back into what were doing and we can reinvest. Help your sales too . Of course it will help sales. Consumer side, people will be spending more. Obamacare is another thing. I think theres some good things that came out of that. I dont think toss it all away, but revisions will be helpful. Is that part of the labor cost issue . It is. I think if there are tweaks there to make the cost, you know, easier on employers and easier on people, thats helpful. Trade policy makes me a little bit nervous. We have to be globalist because the supply chain demands it. And youve also got immigration. Take ten seconds to tell us how awesome the shirts are. Theyre the best shirts made in the country right now. I want to give him a chance. He answered all of our questions on business. We have to make it worthwhile for him to come in. We have a few stores well. D. C. , richmond. But we have a very simple business. We make an incredible shirt and take care of people. As long as the economy continues to hum along, well be in good shape. Good luck. We love your animal spirits. Thank you. Coming up, swipe with caution. Tips on protecting your bank account this Holiday Weekend or any time you use plastic to pay. Plus Macys Herald Square opening up about an hour ago. Flagship store in new york city. Terry lundgren is going to check in. B squawk box returns in a just a moment. How will you keep up with the new demands of todays Digital Economy . The fact is some believe they wont need a Traditional Bank down the road, so at cognizant, were helping banking and Financial Services Companies Think digital, be untraditional, and reimagine what the bank of the future can be. Our clients can now leverage customer intelligence to predict their financial needs and provide more contextualized products and services. Were creating new platforms across channels so customers can effortlessly invest, borrow, lend, transactwhereverwhenever they choose. And were digitizing the way banks run, driving efficiencies and delivering new value for their customers in return. Digital works for banking and Financial Services. Lets talk about how digital works for your business. They are the natural borns enemy of the way things are. Yes, ideas are scary, and messy and fragile. But under the proper care, they become something beautiful. Shop until you drop. The nations retailers are open for business this black friday. Well check in with the ceo of macys Terry Lundgren for retail recon. The november jobs report just one week away. La salle network joins us to talk about the state of the nations job force. Plus the musthave toys this Holiday Season. What do you mean for christmas little boy . A look at what kids will be asking for. No. No. I want a rifle. Youll shoot your eye out, kid. My, how things have changed. As the second hour of squawk box begins right now. Ho ho ho. Live from the beating heart of business new york city this is squawk box. Welcome back to squawk box here on cnbc. Youre looking at a live shot or you were just now of macys Flagship Store in new york city. Sort of slightly busy for 7 00 a. M. Not super busy yet. We did see crowds out front earlier when they opened door. The ceo of macys Terry Lundgren will be joining us in a bit to talk the Holiday Season. You dont want to miss that. Watching futures this morning. Wall street will be closing early today at 1 00 p. M. Futures board is expected to open higher. Dow expected 55 higher. Nasdaq by three. Of course we were cloesed yesterday. We had a decent bit. Slight gains, europe though pretty much flat. Worried about you wilfred. Youre questioning whats in the prompter. Just read whats in there. All right . Well get through this. Itll be great. Im not worried about that. But it was an odd headline there. Dont question. Just read it. I did just read it and i regret it. Lets check out european equities. They were weaker this morning because there was concern about pretty flat. Lets call it flat and move on. The economists told italians to vote no on the referendum. And that is important why . Because economists all economists agree im being snide if they vote no it will be doom and gloom and the world will end and the euro could be destroyed. Exaggerates. Its significant shortterm uncertainty versus what economists are saying saying they arent the perfect political reforms for the country. So to vote them in for the longterm might not be good. But the rest of europe will be focused do you think the rest of europe gets a message from the u. S. . No. Not at all. Hold on. It may be possible. We dont know whats going to happen, but certainly one of the things thats happened is what a lot of the elite economists have said was that the fiscal side has to take the reins from monetary side. And reforms. So maybe now they get the message. You still dont get over the mention. You do need deeper integration, fiscal integration. Until that happens, youve got Different Countries on that level. And youve got these rules. How many more times can mario draghi say please help me . He begs every meeting. How about over in the Japanese Central bank, please help me . And they dont. Stan fisher, janet yellen have all said please help me. Heres the bottom line truth we should remember. When the Central Banks help out federal governments, federal governments dont change like they need to. Bottom line. When theyre staring down the barrel of a 7 yield at the same time you have to say Central Banks withholding aid to the economy to force governments to do things is not in the purview of the central bank. The question i think youre getting at which is at the moment greece has taken it on the chin because they thought the worst outcome of leaving would be much worse for them. The issue will germany take their foot off the countrys throats if a more meaningful country is threatening to possibly leave, that could be the thing that changes the pressure that germany puts in terms of ladies and gentlemen, there is so much brain power on this set this morning. I should leave. The average iq would go way up. Lets look at broader markets right now. Show you the price of oil which has been hovering between 45 and 50. Wondering if theres going to be a breakout move driven by expectations for more demand, expectations for more supply, expectations of a higher dollar. And the saudis going crazy. Wti lower. The dollar taking a rest this morning. Weaker across the board against the euro, yen, and pound. 1. 05 is what it will cost you. 113 yen for every dollar. And pound will cost you 1. 24. The price of gold has gotten pummelled since the election. Which has been interesting. Not an inflationary trend. Theres a concern maybe well get inflation. But you dont see it the price of gold. 1,187. Per ounce. Some political news to tell you about. Wall street journal citing people close to the situation say wilbur ross is expected to be named commerce secretary under president trump. The billionaire chairman of wl ross and company is known for buying up failed companies. Also a longtime and frequent guest here on cnbc. An investor in the greek economy, investor in the steel sector many years ago. People who like him call him a turnaround specialist. And those who dont call him a vulture. Wilburs a good guy. Back to the retail and Consumer Stores may have opened thursday night, but the Retail Federation says the bulk of the traffic will still be today. Courtney reagan from dayton, ohio, joins us now with more. Take it away, courtney. Reporter hi. Good morning again, steve. So the national Retail Federation says that 60 , nearly 60 of this country will shop at some point this weekend and threequarters of them are going to do it today. Deloitte says that peak traffic actually should begin at about now running over the next two hours. But thursday night thanksgiving hours really belong to those big box retailers and the anchor stores like jcpenney, target, walmart. Shopping center jll says at its ten centers with thanksgiving hours, 90 are reporting moderate to strong traffic at either the same or above last year. Sales on par with last thanksgiving. Now, number of shoppers we spoke to have been out all night and theyre not done yet. Kohls first. Start at kohls. Then to dicks. Then came here. Yesterday we started at meyers. And we finished there and went back home and then got ready for dinner. Then came back and shopped at walmart, kohls, target, ultra. And then came here. Reporter now, target says thanksgiving day is in the record books for its biggest day online ever. Traffic and sales up double digits. Adobe is still tallying the online total yesterday thanksgiving day but so far looks like its on track to hit the 2 billion mark which is what they had been looking for. Today online sales for black friday could hit 3 billion for the first time and that would be up 11 from last year. Back to you in new york city. Thanks so much, courtney. Now lets check back in with our guest host. Black friday guest for how many years now in. A long time. You talked earlier. Why dont you recap whos doing well. Were seeing in terms of whos doing well out there, foot locker is doing well. Pink victorias secret. My team is out there. And thats what were seeing. When i was there last night, victorias secret and pink was slammed with people. The ability to be able to have an experience and sell goods while the promotions are there too, thats what works. I saw it at macys. Saw definitely calvin klein. That was working also. Coaches working too. And cosmetics. Everyone doing selfies. When theyre doing selfies, theyre spending on cosmetics. That makes so much sense. To you. Social media drives sales. Come on, steve. You take the odd selfie as well. I did a facetime call the other day for the first time. Theyre great, arent they . Well, you know, my wife was a little concerned about it. She was like this is not a good look. A lot of chin. You need to buy more cosmetics. It never occurred to me. I was going to say whos not doing well . Yoer seeing some retailers with big promotions. Look at abercrombie where its 50 off. Their hollister business is doing better than the abercrombie. When you see 50 off at this point, that sends a bad signal to you . 50 off for black friday is the new this is what youre going to do. Then youre going back to 40 . Is there a theme here . Is it clothes, electronics, games . Some theme you can tell us about . Clothing is doing well. Thats one of the things we should ask Terry Lundgren about. Theyve seen a pickup in momentum in apparel. Jewelry is slower lately. Thats something you want to watch carefully. You would throw out promotion, throw out price if you could give some Colder Weather the most important thing. Outer wear and cold weather accessories. We need that and coming fast. But retail inventory levels are lean. Greater sales growth than inventory growth. We just showed the stocks for abercrombie. While those retailers have recovered, they have not. They dont look good. Theyre down 43 year to date. Having issues. Theres trouble and theyre having to fix the stores. Aber ccrombie is in the midst of those arent buying opportunities . Id wait it out. I think there are other buying opportunities. The buying opportunities i see, l brands, lululemon. Brands with a lot of value. Youll see a lululemon, leaner margins, levels. Dana, its been up strong. Do you think thats theres l brands by the way. Down 25 . Exactly. But if you look at the overall retail index, its been up very strong. Has it gone too far too fast . I think thats the opportunity. Is this a much bigger advantage this weekend and discount period for online retailers. The cost also associated with the bricks and mortar guys to have the bigger footprint of people, is that a big cost or do Retailers Online also have to invest more in terms of matching that demand . The multichannel shopper shops more than the Single Channel shopper. You need to have both together. The multichannel shopper is someone who uses both the internet and shopping in a store. Got it. Stick around because were going to talk more about online particularly now millions of americans shopping from the comfort of their own homes. This black friday while the computer used to be the traditional place to shop from home, mobile phones are taking over. But our next guest says not so fast. Lets tender to ceo of nightline security vinny troy. Thanks for joining us. Whats your top tip in terms of helping people avoid being hacked or scammed while shopping online this weekend . So i think Online Shopping isnt as much of a concern. I mean, certainly you want to make sure if youre doing it from your home youre probably okay. You want to make sure youre not using your credit card on public wifis or places like that. The bigger concern for consumers right now are the gas pumps. I mean, the technology with gas pump skimmers has evolved to such a new place where theyre completely undetectable. The devices slide into the credit card slot. So consumers will have no way of knowing that theres a skimmer in the device. So the device will actually just read credit card numbers. I think thats probably the bigger risk for consumers right now. I dont know that wha this is. Do you know what this is this gas pump skimmer . Explain, vinny. Sure. Its a well spread thing at this point. But basically criminals will go to gas pumps and put this tiny device into the gas pump and it will just read credit card numbers. Then they go back around to the devices and pull the skimmer out. So its interesting. Its fairly common thought that you can be hacked when youre buying online, but generally speaking youre saying normal shopping when you go shopping with your credit card its just as easy for people to rip you off. Sure. I think physical shopping is probably more susceptible at this point. You know, with all of the large data breaches that weve seen, you know, Companies Like target or home depot or whoever the latest breach is, theyre starting to get their stuff together. When youre shopping online, it is much more difficult to steal the information than it would be physically because you could literally just kind of even as simple of stealing someones wallet. Or with a skimmer. If youre at a restaurant, they could use a skimmer where they swipe it on the spot. So i mean, theres many more ways to physically get somebodys card number. For people shopping in brick and motor stores, what do you think of apple pay . Is that something that adds another level of hackability or something that protects shoppers . I love apple pay. Apple pay and google pay. I think that is completely the future because it completely randomizes the credit card numbers. Whenever you make a transaction, the credit card number is never transmitted. Its a completely sort of encrypted number. Theres literally nothing to steal. I mean, if more people would adopt that, the problem would go away much faster. How much larger is this problem becoming and what takes it away and what minimizes it . I mean, theres no slowdown to credit card theft and credit card fraud. And really at this point the only thing consumers can do unfortunately is to just make sure theyre looking at their credit card statements. Its one of those things where i hear from people all the time, you know, if i get fraudulent charges on my credit card im not going to worry about it because ill call the bank and theyll reverse the charges. Its not necessarily that simple all the time. The last thing you want is to look at your statement after a couple months and realize youve been hit with all these charges that are fraudulent mixed in with regular transactions. Im confused. What about the chips . I thought the chips were going to we rounded one where it said dont put your trust into chips. Why not . I thought that was going to solve a lot of problems. Not at all. So the chip is only designs to prevent your card number from being imprinted on another card. But the actual chip, you know, whenever youre doing a normal process, it transmits the card number completely unencrypted. I mean, its not very effective at all. And did i read in the notes that if you have an Android Phone, you can stand near somebody else with an Android Phone clarify that for me. What the vulnerabilities are there. It is possible. It uses a technology called nfc. It would take a look. You literally have to be almost on top of the person to pull that off. If youre a consumer, dont leave your phone kind of laying around at the mall or wherever and youll probably be safe from that. Are there a series of things that are no brainers, low hanging fruit stuff that should be done either through government regulation or the Credit Card Companies or even individual users of credit cards to make the world more secure, make their own credit card information more secure . Sure. I mean, im not sure if its low hanging fruit at this point. I think part of the problem is even when you look at the gas pumps, the adoption of the technology or adoption of new technology to prevent fraud is very expensive. So its a very time consuming process. From the consumer perspective, the best thing you can do is stay on top of your statements and make sure you dont have all these charges. And certainly dont use your debit card. Because the last thing you want is for your money to be drained out of your account. Thank you very much for joining us this morning. Thank you. Appreciate it. Coming up, Terry Lundgren the ceo of macys going to join us to talk what hes expecting to see during the holiday rush. Hes our guest after this break. And later a closer look at jcpenneys turnaround. A 20 gain in price over the past year. Can the company keep it up as we head into the holiday rush . Squawk box will be right back. Mary buys a little lamb. One of millions of orders on this companys servers. Accessible by thousands of suppliers and employees globally. But with Cyber Threats on the rise, marys data could be under attack. With the help of at t, and security that senses and mitigates Cyber Threats, their Critical Data is safer than ever. Giving them the agility to be open secure. Because no one knows like at t. Welcome back to squawk box. Football fans treated to three courses of nfl games on thanksgiving to go along with their turkey, stuffing, and pumpkin pie. The Detroit Lions hosted the minnesota vikings. The score was tied with 40 seconds left when Sam Bradfords pass was intercepted setting up a gamewinning field goal. Detroit beat minnesota 1613. Longtime rivals Washington Redskins to dallas to take on the cowboys. Check this out from terrence williams. Gets the touchdown. Dallas went on to win. Im auditions for a sports broadcast. How am i doing here . Good. Ive never read sports before. All right in the night cap the steelers were taking on the colts. It was all pittsburgh winning big over colts. Im literally on the edge of my seat. Are you . Great. In f this economic thing doesnt work, im in sports broadcasting. I was glued. Now we got to go. Ceo of macys joins us. Plus ceo of hudsons bay Gerald Storch will share his outlook for the Holiday Shopping season and talk foot traffic. Squawk box will be right back. Hey steve check out this guys leg. Yeah looks like a real nasty moving back in with his parents. What . No. I just broke my leg. No, this is a full blown move in to the basement, youre gonna be out of work without that money from. Aflac you might miss your rent. Aww i just moved out. Bummer man. Hey i used to have my own place. Yeah . No, no i live with my mom, but its cool. Health can change but the life you love doesnt have to, keep your lifestyle healthy with. Aflac on this black friday, lets bring in macys Ceo Terry Lundgren who joins us from the macys Flagship Store. Hows it going so far this morning . Are you seeing big crowds and how much of an indicator is that for the weekend and the season . Well, first of all, it actually started last night. I was here at 5 00 p. M. When we opened the doors at Macys Herald Square to 16,000 people that were wrapped around the entire building waiting to get in. So theres no question that theres still an interest in black friday, end of thursday into black friday. The crowds are continuing to be steady. We are showing the video of the crowd from last night and everybody coming in. What do you think is bringing them in this year . Why are they coming . Well, first ofr all, i continue to believe weve talked about this in the past. That the way the consumer shops today, they start on their phone, do their research. They decide where theyre going to buy, what categories theyre going to want to buy, what price theyre prepared to pay. Then they come in to experience the product inside that brick and mortar facility. Thats us. Thats whats happening. Thats why theyre here. Then once they get here on a value day like today, theyre going to buy. Theyre not going to wonder if itll be there tomorrow. Here its an urgent response and reaction. Thats why theyre here buying. That combination of using technology and the experience of being inside the store is the way the consumers are shopping today and will continue to do so in the future. Terry, its dana tel see, hi. I was at the store 10k last night and it was busy. You talked about apparel picking up. Whats the key driver where apparel is gaining momentum . The dress business has been very strong. Were starting to see that carry over into social occasion dresses as well. Not just daytime dresses but evening dresses into social occasions. That whole category has been strong for us. I notice thats been reported. Not everyone is talking about apparel sales picking up. We clearly are seeing apparel sales picking up. For us it must be market share gain. Thats from the great brands we have. Tommy hilfiger has been on fire for us. Speaking of apparel, i saw that you guys were talking to steve about velvet and he was saying he wouldnt wear velvet. But i got this jacket pulled for him. Im saving it for him. Steve, youd look great in that. This would be perfect for steve, dont you think . I think it would be excellent for him. I think its the right color. Terry, i want to see you in it. Just for you. 59. 99. I would get that jacket. I can wear it to one of my shows with my blues band. I could be a good look for a musical show. Can i just ask the election and the consumer what kind of mood is the consumer in and is it different in different parts of the country . You know, listen. Im watching you guys reporting how strong the stock market is. Obviously there is a strong reaction to this election. I think the countrys glad that this is behind us now. We know the decision and we can decide how were going to respond to that. Based on what ive seen so far particularly last night and the crowds today, im encouraged. The consumer has money in their pocket. They have the savings accounts are strong. Youre seeing wage growth improving. Unemployment is at very powerful, almost full employment here. So were in a position, i think, for consumption to take hold. Its just a matter of seeing what happens and what changes over the next several months. But im encouraged. Terry, just quickly what about price points . The likes of target and walmart over the last 24 hours. Have you seen the smaller ticket items being the main things getting off the shelves . Its actually a combination. Like, we have a 15 gift set. So if you dont want to commit to a big fragrance purchase, you can get six different a variety of six different sample sizes that are sort of what we call luxury sample sizes. And at the same time the apple watch is selling very well. And highend Technology Items are selling well. Its for us not just lower price. I think thats what a store like macys has to offer the best. That is the wide range, wide selection of various products and price points. And that stock up 11 so far this year. Good luck today and this weekend. Thanks very much. Thanks for the jacket, terry. Steve, the race is on. I think i might try to get the jacket before you. You already have a velvet smoking jacket, i bet. I do. Not a red one though. Of course he does. What color is the jacket . Its dark navy blue. Of course. James bond. How good are they in the back . Theyre playing blue velvet. Both of you can get a red and each wear red. That was a lot cheaper than i paid for it. I have to say. More expensive. Tna. You can say that on tv . Still to come on squawk box, well tell you how president elect donald trump spent his thanksgiving. First look at the futures. Dow opening to the tune of higher 57 points. Were back in a moment. What i love most about tempurpedic mattresses. Is that they contour to your body. You just have to lay back in my tempurpedic, and it just kind of forms to my body. It comes up to you, like hey, there you are. Hey, there you are. Im going to put you to sleep now. It keeps us comfortable and asleep at night. Can i take a nap now. Its our biggest event of the year. And a great time to buy a tempurpedic, with our best prices on all tempurpedic mattresses. Save up to 600, now thru november 29th. Get your tempurpedic. The most highly recommended bed in america. Welcome back to squawk box here on cnbc. Check out the futures at this hour. Strengthening ever so slightly. We came in this morning, michelle read the board. That would be another new high if we close higher. Every one every point, right, is a record high . An intraday on the s p wednesday. What was the intraday . Yorm off the top of my head. And Terry Lundgren pointing out earlier that he thinks the better stock market plays a role in the more optimistic consumer. And maybe helping optimism out there. The next big countdown for the markets will be the fed meeting. The latest fed minutes show appearing confident. Enough to warrant an increase soon. The minutes released late wednesday, they back the general feeling the fed is ready to raise ratss when they meet in december. Just one piece of Economic Data today. The trade deficit out at 8 30 a. M. Eastern. Im the only one excited about this. Its done a good job at telegraphing where it was going to go. I like it. Its great having steve reading a generic fed read as an anchor. Its like get the nfl. Youre so excited about it. Its like your team plays every day. Ahead of the opec meeting, saudi arabia is said to be backing the steepest cut possible removing about 2 from the worlds oil supply. But iraq might balk at the cuts. Lets show you the price of crude oil at this hour. Decline of 1 for wti. 47. 42 per barrel. Donald trump says he was working hard on thanksgiving to keep another u. S. Manufacturer from moving production to mexico. Trump tweeting yesterday hes trying to get Carrier Air Conditioning Company to stay in indiana. Making progress, will know soon. Earlier this year the carrier announced it was moving its furnace plants to indianapolis from indianapolis to mexico. Taking 1400 jobs. Trump made several references to carrier during the campaign saying if it moves to mexico, the company will face a hefty tax on imports to the u. S. Carrier confirmed to cnbc its had discussions with the Incoming Administration but nothing to announce at this time. This is a very big, highprofile test for donald trump on trade. Can he do that . Can he slap tariffs on just carrier . Or somehow construe it . First hes got to be in office, right . Got to get to january 20th. But hes got a lot of lateral hes got a lot he can do on trade when it comes to executive order. In other words, just on his own. Which could be driven. So this is the downside people were talking earlier this morning. Before you arrived wilfred, we were asking what the downside was were missing in the market. The trade shoe hasnt dropped yet. And that thats something that could potentially spook the market and kind of rein in this. Tax cuts and infrastructure spending. Right. All good news. Id say the bigger potential negative surprise is priced in were going to get some form of infrastructure spend. Thats still yet to be delivered. I know thats general consensus on wanting to see that delivered. But theres not general consensus on how its funded. I wrote a piece last week ill tweet it out again. I wrote about the deficit and how that can be something that attenuates what donald trump can accomplish. Where did the Tea Party Republicans come down, how does the public feel about this . How does the fed react to this . Right. And on top of that, Interest Rates have gone up. Its the reason whats driving them up which is what matters. Thats why we havent seen markets derail. If we start to see rates soar because its getting out of hand, thats not a good reason to have higher rates. Could be something that derails coming down later. What we call bond vigilantes. Small business saturday was a big win for local retailers last year. Shoppers spending about 16 billion. This Year American express which created the shopping holiday said it should be on par with last year. Kate roger joins us with more details about that. Reporter hey there. Its a big year every year for Small Businesses. And local retailers like tons of toys here where we are today are hoping for a lot of foot traffic. Now, they tell us their Customer Service is what sets them apart from their big box competitors. We absolutely pride ourselves on tons of toys, we do the free wrap, free delivery for local people. So we go above and beyond for the service. And i think that theres a really strong push and Grassroots Movement for shop small. When its picked up by an organization like amex its that much stronger. This is the sixth year amex has sponsored this holiday. 95 million customers around the country went out and shopped small at local retailers. Restaurants, salons, and more. The good news for Small Companies is Early Research shows that 76 of customers who are aware of the holiday say they plan to get out there and support a local retailer just like tons of toys this year which is fantastic news for small Companies Like them. And they do black friday, Small Business saturday, tons of savings sunday. Then they do an aentscyber monday. They do promotions all through the weekend. Back over to you. Kate, i heard a number from a Government Official last week. If you spend a dollar at a Small Business, 70plus percent stays in your community. Reporter tons of toys, their owner you saw he does a lot of rallying in the community to get people to not only shop at his business but businesses across the street. Theyre located on a highway and they said a lot of people dont realize they support each other as well. As you said, the dollars stay within the business and community at large. Hiring helps jobs. More people get out and spend. Its a win all around. Great stuff. Thank you very much. Steve, i want to follow up on one point. Thats obviously local community. I think its local. I think ultimately it depends, like, you could follow the dollar through. Help out a Big Department store. Shareholders get that money eventually. And so the shareholder, what is the wealth of the shareholder, what is their propensity to spend that dollar . I think that there is a need to help Small Business and i like the idea that people know when they do it they may spend a little bit more but theres a value to them in the community. And you always need a bit of local retailers in addition to the national retailers. Plus you have thats whats bringing the physical to the store. People go and they want to support the local businesses. Lets go from that which is not unrelated to talking about jobs. Next friday i cant believe its going to happen again. Happens every month. But it seems to happen faster. Joining us now ceo of National Staffing and kre kruting form la salle networks. Weve been on a roll in this economy. Weve been creating a lot of jobs but a lot of complaints about whether theyre good jobs. Whats your take on that . I think its going to continue. Im fairly confident that well see at least a mid150, 160 job report coming in for the november numbers. And well continue going through. My clients were working with around the country are optimistic about deregulation from the new administration. I think were seeing that in the stock market and see that on main street with hiring. Tom, what was your take on the texas judge who overruled the new overtime rules . Was that a good or Bad Development . Strong development for the employer market. It was an obama appointee judge who ruled in favor of the states. With that not happening, it was a late notice. It was to take effect on december 1st. So just one week before it was to take effect, the judge overruled it. But it stops employers from having to either a, limit employees from working over 40 hours which is detrimental to the employees career, or b, decrease their salary cost which would have resulted in getting laid off to accommodate increases. Let me take the other side of that. You could take a guy okay. Im paying you 24,000 and im making you a manager. And youre going to work as so long as i want you to work. That seems unfair, doesnt it . Well, i think theres exceptions. And there was a lot of talk of having a retail exemption. What was happening was a lot of the national Retail Stores were doing that exact thing and making somebody a manager and assistant manager and having him clean the toilets at 2 00 in the morning and that wasnt right. Where it is detrimental is when you have a lot of companies nonprofits, Service Organizations that hire a lot of College Graduates between 30,000 and 40,000 a year and the goal is work as hard as you can and overcome to get opportunities. The starting from the mail room mentality that started this country was getting thrown out the window. What other areas get affected by this. What do you think of the restaurant pace . How do you think about that . It doesnt affect the restaurant anything that was an hourly job to begin with didnt really affect it. Many are overtime eligible. Didnt get a lot of talk were colleges and universities where they employee a ton of people and the budgets arent as big. Work more than 40 hours a week. A ton of nonprofits were getting hit hard from staff. Where the people want to put in more time but the budgets arent allowing to pay higher salaries. Like i said, a lot of marketing, advertising, inside sales based organizations where they hire a ton of people out of college. And the goal is work your butt off and get promoted. Those ones got tom, were going to have to have you back to talk about this. But i want to ask about this. Where are you seeing strong growth right now from your clients . Were seeing it a lot in the consumer package good distribution model. So a lot of companies that are implementing big systems and then hiring a lot of supply chain experts. Were seeing a ton of stuff in back Office Accounting procurement. And technology is always a big one. Were seeing a ton of right now sales hiring. What does erp stand for . Id been trying to find that out from folks at s. A. P. For years. Electronic retail processing . I just made that up. Thats good. Its an enterprise system. So it incorporates back office and sales. What about regionally . Where is the hiring happening right now . I think were still seeing it in the big cities. Were seeing it in new york, chicago, l. A. It is the two different americas of the big urban markets that are feeling more of the pain. I heard Terry Lundgren say earlier that 14,000 people were at macys in new york. How many were in tulsa or new orleans or madison, wisconsin. Wheres main street on this . Tom, youre a champ for coming in on the day after thanksgiving and joining us. We appreciate it. Glad to be on with you. Coming up on squawk box, were going to go shopping. Star wars, pokemon. A look at what your kid will be throwing a tantrum for this Holiday Season. A roundup of hot days coming up on squawk box. S my headquarte. This is where i trade and manage my portfolio. Since i added futures, i have access to the oil markets and gold markets. Okay. Im plugged into equities trade confirmed and i have Global Access 24 7. Meaning i can do what i need to do, then i can focus on what i want to do. Visit learnfuturestoday. Com to see what adding futures can do for you. Black friday is in full swing. Joining us this morning from the lord and taylor Flagship Store in new york city, Hudsons Bay Company ceo gerry storch. Are you getting any good indications about the Holiday Season . It just started but the national Retail Federation has more this year than last year. I think when its all said and done, the headlines are going to be, black friday lives on but its an allchannel black friday including the internet. So all the reports from various retailers, everyone all around the country are that people in line when stores opened. It feels just like black fridays have felt forever. All about the dealing. People come out for black friday because they love finding the deals like our 39. 99 cashmere sweater at lord taylor. Or 39 coats. People love the deals on black friday. Now, while it is more on an allchannel black friday, on these days where thanksgiving day and black friday are rivaling cyber monday for it doesnt mean the instore sales are at the expense of it. Steve has got a question for you, gerry. Yep. What are you seeing in terms of the categories out there . Are you seeing apparel picking snup any categories that are working for you and is the cold weather going to get here to help us . Thats a great question. We finally see coats starting to sell better. It is colder than last year. All of us retailers have been waiting for this. Last year was just so hot all the way up until christmas, we dont have that now. Thats not the forecast for now. But we are seeing outer wear start to sell. So we are seeing it start to trend nicely. Got it. Gerry, thank you so much. Good luck this big weekend for you guys. We thank you for taking the time to do this. Still come out for the deals. We didnt talk about velvet. We didnt. But you and i are going to macys. Were going to go get both of you need red. Its sbn decided. But still to come on squawk box, what toys your children want and where to find them. As we go to break, futures are heading to a higher open about 60 points for the dow. Well be right back. Today, were seeing new technologies make healthcare more personal with patientcentric, digital innovations; from selfmonitoring devices that can interpret personal data and enable targeted care, to Cloud Platforms that invite providers to collaborate with the patients they serve. Thats why over 90 of the top 25 Global Pharmaceutical Companies are turning to cognizant. Our domain experts, technologists, digital and data specialists, clinicians and scientists are transforming the way Clinical Research sites collaborate with pharmaceutical companies, and enhancing Patient Engagement with innovative platforms and solutions. Our populations growing healthcare needs present growing opportunities for our clients to advance the future of medicine with digital, and improve the quality of lives. What toys will be the must haves this Holiday Season . Aditi roy joins us with a look. Hi, aditi. Reporter hey there, michelle. This is the paw patrol interactive robotic dog. It speaks two languages. French and english. And it actually has infrared sensors in front so if it runs into your child, it will go the other direction. Just one example of how tech is infiltrating the toy industry. In fact, tech related products are topping this years holiday list for kids. It speaks to a larger trend of technology topping many holiday lists. The Consumer Technology Association Reports a record 116 million americans plan to buy tech during the busy Holiday Shopping season. Another trend is traditional brands tapping into technology. So you can make a drone with legos, play virtual playdoh. Many are wifi enabled. So given the opportunity to take something and really go to your ipad or android and program something for it to move. I think thats very cool. So you learn coding, you kind of understand how things work. And so to see an item you created through technology, through the robotics, it allows the child to kind of feel they created something on their own. And of course the hot seller toy the hatchimals, they use Robotic Technology to hatch. The company that created them is known for their Innovative Solutions and have a separate robotics division. Thanks so much. Coming up, amazon and apple getting ready for a big Holiday Season. We talk tech and holiday expectations. Ahead of the open on wall street, a shortened session today. Squawk box coming right back. S looked up to the sky and said, why not . And Collaboration Tools from intel made Rocket Science simple for actual rocket scientists. And the launch crew met for a moment of reflection. Before any of this, cdw orchestrated a collaboration solution using pcs with intel 6th gen core vpro processors. Collaboration by intel. Orchestration by cdw. Calling all bargain hunters. Its black friday. We check in to Stores Across the country. A toy story. The official kickoff of the Holiday Shopping season. We have a rundown of the hottest dolls, games, and gadgets as the final hour of squawk box begins right now. Live from the most powerful city in the world, new york, this is squawk box. You know that song, wilf . Good. Its a good one. Michelles been making fun of wilfreds lack of knowledge of thanksgiving for over a week now. I dont think its gotten old yet. Its funny. At wilfreds expense, no . Its fine. Shes been having a ball with it. Hes very tall. He can take it. Theres a lot to learn. All right. Im Michelle Carusocabrera along with Steve Leisman and wilfred frost. Wilfred did not have turkey yesterday. Thats right. Im saving up for christmas. It is black friday. Shoppers are flooding stoers across the country. Youre looking at the mall of america in minnesota. Were going to show you any second. There it is. Showing you all morning. Were going to have much more on the morning. Dana telsey has been covering retail for longer than she wants to admit here on wall street. First, though, a check on the markets. We are less than 90 minutes away from the opening bell. Futures right now suggesting a positive open. A new high for the dow yesterday. S p as well. Right . Anything new new intraday high nearly for the s p. So the Optimism Post election continues. Show you whats going on with european markets at this hour. They were pretty flat to negative most of the morning. And now the ftse has turned higher. But barely. This is flat trade. The big news over there is that the economist the magazine had recommended italian voters vote no and that key referendum coming up. And the dollar is taking a breather. This has been one of the huge stories since the election. A megarun. But it is weaker against the euro and the yen. Almost 1. 06. Pound, its weaker against the pound which will cost you a buck 24 this morning. It is a shortened day of trading today. The New York Stock Exchange and nasdaq will close at 1 00 p. M. Eastern time. The bond markets close later at 2 00 p. M. Eastern time. Commodities and car insurancety markets also observing the holiday and have a shortened session. Although currency markets never actually close. Im not sure about that. They dont. And even the bond market doesnt really close. But the stock market closing at 1 00. First time earlier than the bond market. Did it used to be . Never really caught that before now. Here are the stories investors will be talking about today. Wilbur ross expected to be named commerce secretary. Considered a turnaround specialist. Known for buying up failed companies. Opec leaders also gather next week to discuss Oil Production cuts. Saudi arabia backing the steepest cuts possible. Moving about 2 from the worlds oil supply. But iran may balk at those ideas. The price of oil is around 47 and change. Coming up any minute now. Is it leer now . It was lower by about 3 cents. We will get that to you right away. There it is. Down 43 cents. Is that right . Or almost 1 . And theres one piece of Economic Data today. Were 30 minutes from the october trade deficit. Which steve is excited about, by the way. A lot of exciting events. Weve got middle of next week opec meeting. Then the italian referendum zblps a fed meeting in there too . What . Interest rate hike. And a lot of retailers reporting sales and earnings next week. Everybodys got their thing that theyre excited about. Speaking of which, black friday is in full swing right now. Courtney reagan joins us live from dayton, ohio, and what we can expect on one of the busiest shopping days of the year. Reporter we are seeing and hearing optimistic undertones from shoppers and retailers around the country. Target and macys and much more. Mall traffic here is picking up. Deloitte expects the next two hours is the heaviest mall traffic of the morning. Some consumers have been out all night. Others went home to refuel before coming out to continue their holiday tradition. Its been great. Its a little less people this year. Black fridays going great. I wouldnt want to spend it any other way after thanksgiving. Good. Really good. Theres some good deals. Reporter now, amazon says that black friday is already on pace to beat 2015 in terms of the number of items that have been ordered. Amazon says that alexa devices and the tv stick, its fire stick are among the top sellers as well as a crock pot, a smart plug and headphones. Target Ceo Brian Cornell says the u. S. Consumer is strong and that means its a great time to be a retailer. He also classified that whooes seen in stores so far as strong. He likes what hes seen also online hitting some records there for target. Thanksgiving day is targets best day ever on its website. Traffic and sales up double digits. So some good news there. Hover boards selling out. The 10 teddy bear selling out at target. Apple products and hoover vacuums also among the best sellers. Here at the mall in dayton, ohio, ive seen a number of victorias secret pink bags and a lot of starbucks cups. That is another retailer measure we look at on a day like black friday. The number of people that are hitting those restaurants and those fast food places to fuel up along the way. They get a nice bump on black friday too. Back to you all in new york. Thanks, courtney. If you are out shopping today, tweet us pictures of the crowds squawkcnbc. How are the big box retailers doing . What about the walmarts, the targets of the world . My team oes out. Joe was just at walmart and basically saw busy lines. Also on the target side, that seems particularly busy going through the night and frankly into the morning. Been seeing a little bit longer lines, too, there. I think the big boxes are doing okay. I think they prepared for it. I think they had special door buster deals. It just seems theres a greater sense of urgency this year than last year. In the stock market world, youre deciding do i go with the big box retailers or the specialty retailers . Where does it come down in your view . I think in my view right now, were seeing good things going on at the big box retailers. Were seeing it at best buy, at walmart. And thats working. What changes . I think whats happening with integrating online and the competitiveness on price. Its sharper than its ever been. What happened there . The stock up 8 . The earnings were better than expected. Right . And Brian Cornell is out there this morning saying theyve got a good start to the season. I heard is that suggesting that people are spending on smaller ticket items rather than bigger ticket items . I think overall typically on the bigger ticket items, theres spending there. Look at jcpenney. They got a real benefit from putting appliances in their stores and helped drive the comp. Its a much higher average transaction. Whats happening with the big box retailers is their inventories are clean, they have the musthave items that are there and its driven traffic. Inventory is a big story. Right . I remember in the wake of the financial crisis, 2008, that winter was set up for 2006 inventory and the bottom fell out of the entire world. Right . Fifth avenue was empty. Now we have the opposite situation. It feels like weve gotten this surprise turn because the election of donald trump and inventories are incredibly lean. Retailers are going into the season with inventories probably half the amount of last year in terms of the percentage increase. So its a much lower increase. Its going to be a better profit season. And the other thing you have this year, more new items and demand. Whether its virtual reality, gaming consoles throughout, whether its look at the tvs out there that best buy is selling. And whether its velvet and some of the items flare pants. A little bit higher waisted pants working. So new things. And active wear is still out there. May not have the growth rate it had before, but still go to active wear sales. And dont forget cosmetics. Were going to get red jackets and flare pants as well. Im not sure how i feel about it. Every half an hour we talk about the velvet. Its 60 bucks. No reason not to. Velvet. Back to the markets. Lets get some information into the trading day. Joining us now is michael farr. Also lindsey pieza. Michael, do you have a velvet jacket . You know, steve, oddly i dont. But i have been listening to the blue velvet song there. Thats got to be a top five for your band, right . Are you considering a velvet jacket . I am now, steve. Im glad. I try to do whatever squawk box tells me to do. They set the fashion tone. Let me ask a serious question then. Michael, is the Retail Consumer back in this market . Are they interested in this market now that the dow is soaring again . They seem to be. The markets do rally. Its one of those continues selffeeding loops. They spend a little bit more when feeling better. We have to watch the did the, watch the consumer debt. Consumer spending has been strong for a long time. This feels like a better Holiday Spending time for retail. Are you optimistic . Are you changing now in terms of your outlook for the km i . Certainly the bar for the consumer has been set relatively high going into this spending season, this Holiday Season. But as weve seen the consumer has seen a lot of volatility shifting the goods and services in their basket. But the pace has been remained lackluster. Were cautiously optimistic hoping some of this optimism from a new administration coming in with progrowth policies will translate into the consumer loosening their pursestrings. As of late, we havent seen that. And remember the reality of the economy at this point has not been changed since the first week of november prior to the election. So the consumer is still facing waning momentum in terms of income, moderate job creation, and of course the hold on, lindsey. Wages have been doing pretty well, right . You have a fed thats worried about wages. Jobs have been doing well. Im a little bit it looks like all the ingredients are in place for the consumer to do well here. Well, the fed is concerned about the labor market gaining momentum from here. To your point, absolutely. Wanls have been inching higher. When we look at the overall income component, it has been waning down to a 3 growth rate. Still positive but down from 4 at the start of the year. And down from 6 at the end of 2014. Its still that Second Derivative decliner that consumers are seeing when they look at their household balance sheet. In terms of employment, again, still positive. But were trending at a pace less than 180,000. At the end of last year when the fed opted to raise rates for the first time in eight years, we were gaining jobs at a nearly 250,000 pace. It depends if youre focused on the Glass Half Full, glass half empty. But were still seeing downward momentum from where the fed told us we would be in the aftermath of that first rate hike. We were talking earlier thats a good point, steve. You go ahead, michael. I was just going to say i think were seeing a lot of people choosing that Glass Half Full. Not only are the consumers going out for the shopping season, but i think buyers on wall street are doing the same thing. Every one of these programs that we think were really going to like from the administration and clearly a year off, were embracing. And any of the bad stuff were dismissing. We have a real bull market Glass Half Full mentality driving Prices Higher without a lot of evidence and indeed the dollar surge is going to trend gdp. The higher Interest Rates are going to hurt that consumer too. So right now it feels like were getting caught up in the euphoria and maybe this emperor trump may not be wearing as many clothes as people think. What would derail markets, how much more of an increase can they take . You know, its a great question. Whenever it starts to affect the consumer. And i think were already seeing with the Mortgage Rates already at 4 and higher, we should start to see housing sales slow. I leave that to steve, of course. But i think well start to see that car purchases. It depends if they stay there for awhile. But this 2. 38 level on the 10year this morning, thats a big number. Thats the number barry called for and all have been looking for for quite a while. Thats a big deal today. 2. 38 on the 10year. If we break through that, we could see weakness. All right. We will watch for that number. Thanks guys and lady. Thank you. Coming up, thanksgiving on the road. What to expect if youre traveling this weekend. Thats next. And a lot still ahead on squawk Box Including breaking Economic News. A preview of apples black friday and a look inside the toy economy this Holiday Season. Stay tuned. Squawk box will be right back. At the Marine Mammal center, the environment is everything. We want to do our very best for each and every animal, and we want to operate a sustainable facility. And pg e has been a partner helping us to achieve that. Weve helped the Marine Mammal center go solar, install electric vehicle charging stations, and become more energy efficient. Pg e has allowed us to be the most Sustainable Organization we can be. Any time you help a customer, its a really good feeling. Its especially so when its a customer thats doing such good and important work for the environment. Together, were building a better california. Welcome back. Apple celebrating black friday with seasonal deals. Its skipped out on the shopping event in past years. But instead of offering sales on its products, the iphone maker is bundling in gift cards worth up to 150 on select purchases. Youll get a 100 gift card when you buy an ipad pro. Well have more on apple and black friday discounts in the next half an hour. Doesnt necessarily like black friday, apple. Interesting sign of a strong brand that doesnt feel it needs to embrace it. More fallout from the strike at lufthansa. They canceled 800 flights today and tomorrow. Affecting more than 30,000 passengers. The pilot union putting pressure on the companys management asking for an average annual pay increase. Lufthansa has canceled more than 2600 flights since they started striking this week. Shares of lufthansa which trade over in europe lower by right now 0. 75 . Generally its true france and germany in general. One of the busiest weekends to hit the road. Phil lebeau is on the road with what to expect this Holiday Travel season. Reporter today black friday people usually look at and say its going to be light traffic out there. Yes, thats true. A lot of people who are usually going into work are not working or in the case of many americans, millions of americans, they are shopping. So the folks at waze which is the Navigation App owned by google. You put in where your destination is, they give you the best route there with the least traffic jams, the fewest delays, et cetera. Theyve crunched the data. Look at the Top Destinations when it comes to black friday. Theyve broken it down by some categories. Overall, more destinations in other words, people type in take me to a particular walmart or the closest walmart. Up 85 on black friday. There you see the other Top Destinations. Costco, bed bath beyond. Not surprised the top restaurant people are looking for destinations to, mcdonalds. But these two stats really shouldnt surprise us, but they really put into perspective just how crowded the roads are on sunday when everybody is returning from thanksgiving weekend. You have traffic jam alerts up 240 . Accident alerts i dont know if you use waze but it shows you if theres an accident ahead, its up 100 . The bottom line is this. Much heavier traffic on sunday. Later today youll see a pickup in traffic. But its just interesting to take a look at where people are headed and what theyre looking for when theyre out there typing in different destinations on the Navigation App. Dana telsey was really impressed by that data showing where people were going in terms of walmart. Right . I loved it. Up 85 . Thats terrific data. The ability to plug in where theyre going. One of the interesting things are whats the least retailer the retailer that is the least number of people who want to go to it. That i would love to know. Im going to go check them out. I want to speak to them. Thank you, phil. Reporter im sure they can tell you. You bet. Thanks, phil. Coming up, may for force be with you. Star wars themed smartphones flying into japan ahead of star wars rogue 1. Were coming right back. Welcome back to squawk box. The futures now suggesting a positive open. New high for the dow yesterday. If we continue like this, it would be another strong session as we look at the u. S. Futures at this hour. Calling all star wars fans including michelle. Softbank celebrating the release of rogue one by releasing star wars themed smartphones. You can choose dark side and light side. And additions of the android. The phone features a star wars themed alarm clock, ring tones, and emojis. On sale in japan in early december. I want to see the back of them. Otherwise its still normal. Would you choose the dark side or light side . Dark because i like a black phone. But fundamentally my morals are good. I loved luke sky walker. Football fans treated to three courses of nfl games on thanksgiving to go along with your turkey, stuffing, and pumpkin pie. The lions hosted the vikings. Score tied with 30 seconds left when Sam Bradfords pass was intercepted. That would set up a gamewinning field goal. Detroit with a buzzer beater beating minnesota 1613. Longtime rivals Washington Redskins traveling to dallas taking on the cowboys. Check out this catch by dallas receiver terrance williams. Just managed to get his toes down in the end zone for the touchdown. Look at that. Look at that. There it is. He is in upon further review its called a touchdown. Dallas unfortunately went on to win 3125. In the night cap the Pittsburgh Steelers in indianapolis to take on the colts. It was all pittsburgh. Steelers won big over the colts 287. You dont love Americas Team . Im a giants fan. I have been imbred to i wont pass judgment. To not like dallas. Id like to like dallas. Theyre a fine football team. I just cant like dallas. But you just dont. Not your cup of tea. Whereas you read it neutral the first time. You shoed your true colors in this read. I have friends who like dallas and to look at that rookie quarterback and that rookie running back, it is extraordinary to watch. I would like to like them. But just cannot. Fair enough. Fair enough. Still to come here on squawk box, breaking Economic News just minutes away from key trade data. Well bring you those numbers next. Plus we told you earlier that black friday is back for apple. Well tell you what it means for the tech giant. As we head to break, dow up by 60 points. Were back in a couple minutes. Welcome back. Were just seconds away from u. S. Trade deficit data. Lets take a look at the Interest Rate complex this morning. The 10year, 2. 37 . And michelles going to tell me if thats at or near i think we hit 2. 40 but not on a closing basis. 2. 43 . Its the closing record . No. The high of wednesday. Whats the close record is my question. Youd have to go back to i thought you said you did that. No you have to go back to paul volcker. I meant recently. Lets take a look at the 2year now. We were 1. 15 before. Now its 1. 14 and change. It was 1. 17 on wednesday. Question we may ask dana or rick lets go to rick with the numbers right now. Good morning, rick. Good morning. The october trade balance which of course is a trade deficit is 62 billion. Thats about 3 billion more of a deficit than we were expecting. Last month a very subtle revision by still hanging with a 56 billion handle. Now, 62 billion is kind of interesting because its about the fifth biggest this year. Its not that bad really. The High Water Mark was june at 64 billion. So it fits right in. Of course we still have some inventories data to come out. Retail inventories up 0. 4 . Im sorry. Down 0. 4 . Wholesale inventories also down 0. 4 . Both these are definitely different than we expected. We expected inventories to be up a couple of tenths both retail a enwholesale. Does it mean . Inventory being down sometimes can be a good thing. Hopefully its because all the widgets are flying off the shelves. Weve seen a lot of cycles. Maybe were actually getting the rubber to the road in this regard. Some of the numbers look good and that seemed to coincide with the surprise election given a sort of extra couple of cylinders to the engine. The big story, of course, is what you were all discussing. Interest rates. The high close on yield for this move cycle is 235. 5 from last week. Looks like a chance to break it today. Dollar index down a quarter. When youre hovering, that isnt such a big deal. But we do have one other issue we want to focus on, of course. That is the notion of how much higher can Interest Rates go. The market isnt the market it used to be. And i still think that were looking at a lot of offsides type trading. Those are huge bias in this market that even if rates went up, theyd be capped. But now all bets are off. And u. S. Leads not only on the notion of its Central Bank Going in a more tightening direction, but also the notion that theres fairy dust back inside the system. The fed couldnt do it. Many other entities in the u. S. Tried to do it. That fairy dust, that magic, that confidence. Its back. No legislation has been pased on the new information. But the markets are hopeful to the extent that rates may go higher than many think. When does that fairy dust run out . Well, you know, in the old days and youre a sharp guy in the old days it was selfgoverning, so to speak. Rates would go up to a certain level, it would thereat l back. The problem with trying to pick that spot this time, wilfred, is we dont really know where rates would be if it wasnt for all the thumbs on the scale not only here but across the scale over the last handful of years. But if i had to pick one level at least for the next quarter or so, anybody above a 260 to 262. I think that is your biggest resistance level well above current rates. Thank you, rick. The trade balance number but of course it is the trade deficit. We assumed for what decades now that its a trade deficit. This is one of the issues in this election, right . That donald trump has not explicitly stated by implicitly stated we should not accept that its always going to be a trade receive did it. Well, yeah. Theres an immediate issue here which is this number being a little more than expected or quite a bit more than expected really raises its going to be a subtraction from growth. Unless it shows up in inventories. Im trying to gdp could be lower because of this number . Right. Subtraction from ultimate growth here. So we need to look at where these inventories went. Possibly this is retailers being optimistic about the upcoming season. You said retail inventories were light. So something comes into the border, it has to go somewhere. So what ends up being a negative ends up being a positive some place else. Trying to figure out where it went. But its an important number to follow. It helped us out for the Third Quarter and well see about the impact on the fourth quarter. Ultimately you talk about a fascinating topic which is about reversing the deficit and trying to get more jobs and less subtraction on the deficit. More on politics right now, rumors are swirling as we get more clues about who will be in president elect trumps administration. Eamon javers joins us now. Reporter good morning. We dont know who else exactly will join the administration, but we do have word for you on Donald Trumps thanksgiving menu. Heres down at maralago in palm beach. The president elect is surrounded by family down there. Theyve gave us an idea of whats on the menu last night including large florida stone crabs, mr. Trumps wedge salad, also pan sered chilean sea bass, and three layer trump chocolate cake. Of course they said there was some turkey on the menu as well. Not taking the entire day off, he said in a tweet late yesterday he was in fact working. Heres the tweet from donald trump yesterday. He said im working hard even on thanksgiving trying to get Carrier Air Conditioning Company to stay in the u. S. All caps, making progress, will know soon. That led to the inevitable question for carrier, what are you going to do about that plant in indiana which became the focal point of so much on the campaign trail this year in 2016. Carrier tweeted about an hour later saying carrier has had discussions with the Incoming Administration and we look forward to working together. Nothing to announce at this time. To so the question is whether theres something to announce in the future. Could we see something today or over the weekend for the workers in indiana whose jobs are being outsourced to mexico. Will carrier his First Political victory over the holiday. Have you seen this before . Has a company backed down to this kind of pressure that you recall . I cant think of one just off the top is of my head here. But they have found themselves in the political cross hairs in the past of course. Its not a comfortable position for corporate executives. You might think whatever they lose financially by keeping those jobs in the United States, they might gain politically. And you might say with a new administration coming in, the carrier executives might decide, look, this is just worth it for us to get out of the political cross hairs even hope its going to cost us. A major defense contractor. Theres implications there too, right . And the question is whether shareholders and wall street will forgive them for that move or whether theyll punish them for that move. To maximize profits for shareholders. Now the political winds have changed. The Incoming Administration is going to put pressure on a lot of those companies to bring jobs back to the United States. You look at a company like apple and you think what kind of pressure will they be under over the course of the next year. And what tools will donald trump really have to force those companies to go against their economic best interests in this era of globalization. All of that to be sorted out as we go along here. Great stuff. Thank you very much for that. You bet. Were going to talk about apple now but under a different topic. Because black friday is back for the tech giant who previously sat out on the shopping rush festivities. Offering deals which might give a boost to the slumping iphone sales. Joining us now ed lee. Good morning to you. Morning, guys. Lets kick off with apple. They have joined the black friday discount party. But not wholeheartedly. And we dont know exactly all the things theyre going to offer discounts. Theyve done a hundred dollars off a laptop. Its not a huge discount. So people look at that as youre not really doing this. Apple is a funny company that way. They have necessary items Everyone Needs or wants an iphone. Its an important thing for people to want to have. People are going to buy that anyway. If you want get a deal, you can try to get it, of course. Laptops, these higher end items seen as luxury goods. If youre going to buy it, youre going to buy it. They dont need to participate the way other companies do. They hadnt done deals to show the strength of their brand. The fact they have, does it sho e the weakness of their iphone sales . It does. I think thats an absolute factor here. Theyre still experimenting with the different discounts and ways to participate and sort of new sales opportunities. I think, you know, the head of the merchandising for apple, its unclear their overall strategy. Thats always a great selling point. But theyve traditionally not been great at participating in sort of traditional sales channels, traditional sales opportunity zblps this story is not that far from the prior story. App sl potentially going to come under some pressure from the political side as well. Can they make more iphones in the of course they can. But then you pay 2,000 for an iphone, theyre manufactured in the u. S. No problem. I think longer term, you know, there might be i think apples plan for domestic sort of workers is, look, we have a growing services business. We have a growing sort of, you know, just our intellectual property. Thats where they want to add workers. Thats their growth in terms of the u. S. Workforce. In terms of the actual products, its hard to kind of get the same economies of scale by manufacturing these things in the u. S. And another political factor for apple if we did see a low off tax to repatriate cash abroad, what should they be doing with that cash . Would they jump on that opportunity . Like 200 billion theyve got offshore and they get a nice tax holiday break bringing it back, yeah, you know you should buy uber if i was them. If theyre interested and if theyre serious about a new product, selfdriving cars is one of their big pushes. Theyve pulled back on that more recently. But this is important. This is very important. Because does apple lack the cash or the borrowing ability to do anything it wants in the United States right now . And will that 200 billion change one wit what they do . Thats a great point. Theyve got enough might, enough power and cash that they can do what they want. At the same time i think you had that much cash on your books. It does change our calculus a bit. There are other big things to go out for whether it is an uber or other Major Technology you dont have in house. It would make a buyback easier for sure. Of course that would boost the stock. Carl icahn could jump back into the mix and say hey. Selling more square foot. Its one of the biggest throughout. And how much is it when i see best buy sales does it depend whether theyve got a cool new phone or not . It helps. Best buy didnt get the watches at the beginning. Only a couple of them. Then as watches start doing better, they got it. But what do you see in terms of the upgrade cycle . This past one we saw the new iphone. I think next year is the big year when iphone 8 comes out, itll be the tenth anniversary. Is this a big day for them. Profitable day. Theyre going to take full advantage of today. Analysts arm of adobe estimates a 15 gain over the same time last year. Yes, its going to be big for online shoppers. Thanks so much. Coming up, let the countdown to christmas begin. Well talk to a top toy expert about which dolls and gadgets will be bringing in the bucks this year. Thats next. Whats Critical Thinking like . A basketball costs 14. Whats team spirit worth . cheers whats it worth to talk to your mom . Whats the value of a walk in the woods . The value of capital is to create, not just wealth, but things that matter. Morgan stanley this is my retirement. Retiring retired tires. And i never get tired of it. Are you entirely prepared to retire . Plan your never tiring retiring retired tires retirement with e trade. Im in vests and as a vested investor in vests i invest with e trade, where investors can investigate and invest in vests. Or not in vests. Sign up at etrade. Com and get up to six hundred dollars. Welcome back to squawk box. You may have heard us earlier talking about velvet jackets. Terry lundgren offering one to steve and its arrived. But im slightly sad. You should be angry. Im wearing this red velvet jacket. Its so nice and soft. Wheres mine . I wanted one too. And its a slim fit. And i thought we had a deal where you were going to do it and i was going to do it and then you bailed on me. He didnt send me one. Terry bailed on me. Terry, thank you very much. It looks great. Steef, its very hugh hefner. I never would have thought myself in velvet at all. In the modern day now. Is this the thing they do. Is it good quality velvet. It is. I have to talk to our ethics people whether or not i can accept this. Its only 60 bucks, pay for it. Is it within our rules . Im going to leave the tag on. You have to wear it christmas also. Okay. We know who terrys favorite is. Thank you, terry. Lets check in with morgan brennan. Shes live at jcpenneys. Reporter good morning. Happy day after thanksgiving. So were inside jcpenney and thanksgiving has been good to jcpenney app least this long island location. They opened their stores yesterday at 3 00 p. M. Marking the earliest of the major retailers to open up on thanksgiving. And since then it has been extremely busy in this store. Ill show you what i mean here. You can see merchandise on the floors, boxes on the floors. The staffers are only just now getting around to cleaning up parts of this store. And yesterday we saw long lines coming into jcpenney ahead of its afternoon opening. And in terms of whats being sold, store staffers here are telling me theyre selling a lot of athleisure, boot, makeup through the sephora boutiques. Also a lot of appliances. Particularly packages of appliances which the retailer just started selling as a bet on the housing recovery as part of its turnaround strategy. Now, amid growing competition, jcpenney likely with other ideals much earlier this year than in years passed. It pushed out ads to mobile users. Ahead of thanksgiving. So thats jcpenney. But i tell you this location is attached to its Roosevelt Field mall which is owned by Simon Property group. Ill tell you put out in the mall a lot of foot traffic out there as well. Weve seen that since early this morning. Lines come into some of the retailers there. When i was out, a lot of car traffic and other shopping complexes. I drove by a lot of cars in the parking lot. I say that because both as a consumer and a reporter whos covered black friday in the past, it feels busier out here than in years past. Guys . Thank you so much. In fact, lets discuss more about what people are shopping for. Lets talk about toys. Because theres always a super hot toy. Laura shact is here on the set. Shes the toy insider moms toy officer. Good to have you here. What do you have here . Lets start with smart tech. You can grab it on black friday. This is the curio watch. Theyre known for tablets for kids but now they have wearable technology. With these watches kids can actually play games, take pictures, videos, add effects. But this is also bluetooth connected. Kids can connect to each other. Can you monitor where your kid is . Not on this. But when parents connect kids connect to their parents phones they can make and receive calls too. 59. 99. Usually 29. 99 today. Toys r us. This is a classic. We havent seen this in 30 years. It is back. I played this when i was a kid. Usually 19. 99. Now going to be 10 at toys r us. Theres no chips in this though. How do you feel about the toy retailers this season . I think they have some new things that will make it interesting. Not just this. Its trolls also. Theres some life in toys. Would you buy the stocks . Hasbro . Dont know the manufacturers as well. The retailers, walmarts going to benefit from toys. Run through the other stuff over there. Hurry up. We all remember it. Its its going to be 50 off at kohls today. Lincoln logs. Lincoln logs, 100 years old. I love that. Is it still made from wood . It is still made from wood and made in the usa by the way. Love the analog toys coming back. Thank you so much. Analog is back. The toy and the jacket. Christmas early. When we return, much more from guest host dana tulsy as black friday kicks into high gear. Stay tuned, were back in just a minute. Is it because so many go after it the same way . Chasing after short term returns. Instead if getting caught up with the crowd, the Investment Managers at pgim take a long term view, teaming specialized active investing with riskmanagement rigor, to seek out global opportunities. We manage over a trillion dollars this way, attracting many of the worlds leading investors. Partner with pgim. The Global Investment management businesses of prudential welcome back. Lets get to our guest host. Whats so funny . Its the jacket. The jacket . What jacket . Oh, this jacket. Its great. Dana, its my special pleasure, every day i get to do the day after thanksgiving. Tell us some of the winners and losers. I think coach is going to be a winner this Holiday Season. Okay. I think youre going to see ulta the cosmetics area be a winner this Holiday Season. Typically the day after thanksgiving, black friday, is the largest Appliance Retail sales day of the year. Appliances . Yeah. People go out and buy refrigerators . Yes. Theres great deals and theyre buying for themselves. Stoves, washing machines. Jc penney. Look, honey, i bought you a washing machine for christmas. How would that go over in your home . Not well. I think foot locker will do well this season. Best buy should do nicely. And who not . I think youre going to see some of those apparel retailers have a tough time. Tell me about this tiffanys store right next to Donald Trumps home. That tiffany store, the new york store, counts for around 8 of their sales. Not anymore. It will be interesting to see as we go through the Holiday Season. Thats their annual sales. So theyre getting destination shoppers, definitely with the tourist trend and in terms of people walking through its not as much. How worried will they be throughout his administration he still uses his trump tower a lot . Would that be a big hit to them too . You have the Side Entrance and online. Biggest thing with tiffany is new products are coming out. Check out the customized watch. What about gucci and prada. Its tough. You mentioned you bought a new skirt, we hear a lot of people are. Guy told me 100 hit rate for people who were able to get in the store. They felt victorious so they felt they had to buy something. You didnt talk about like dicks Sporting Goods. Thomas at the palisades mall and seeing good traffic in dicks Sporting Goods. That seems to be working. Hes there with his daughter al li. I think overall Sporting Goods not as strong as it was last year. Last year was a big year. Continued strength. What about surprises . Some of the jewelry areas weaker. Kays done a lot of advertising. And frankly giving deals. Comp stores were better than expected but still down versus last year. Always great having you on. Thank you so much for having me. Coming up, todays top stories and stocks to watch ahead of the opening bell. Well be right back. Theres a lot of places you never want to see 7. 95. [ beep ] but youll be glad to see it here. Fidelity where smarter investors will always be. 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Earlier we asked you to send us tweets about your black friday experience. Im wearing a red velvet jacket. One viewer at cabelas today. Heres his view from the line before it opened this morning. Look at that. Opens in 30 minutes, line halfway around the store. Thank you from macys for sending me this red jacket. You look fantastic. And a couple other props. I know what youre saying, wilfred. Good year for the retailing stock ths coming year . I think 2017 will be a good year for retailing stocks. More money in the hands of consumers, more money in the hands of retailers. All right. Lets look at the markets, Pay Attention today, dow and s p alltime closing highs on wednesday. Right now the markets were open here, s p would open higher by 3, dow by 55 and nasdaq by 3. So the s p and dow would be if they closed at these levels today at yet more new alltime highs. And weve got a little bit of Oil Price Weakness this morning. We had sort of flat to soft market at the moment in european trade. Asian trade was slightly positive this morning. Our thanks to dana. Shell be back monday morning with the rundown of actually what happened on black friday and who is the best winners. Thanks also to steve and michelle. Thats it for squawk box. Squawk on the street is next. The rush is on. Black friday finally here as the unofficial start to the Holiday Shopping season gets underway. As bargain hunters line up looking for deals, were going to also explore how you can make money in the retail sector. Good morning and welcome to squawk on the street. Im david faber with sara eisen and mike santoli and we are live from the New York Stock Exchange. Jim and carl both off today. Markets close