There are reasons why rational nuclear latent states often want to stay non-nuclear.
As Iran’s next leader, President-elect Ebrahim Raisi, signals a hardening of Tehran’s foreign policy, negotiations in Vienna over the 2015 nuclear deal, known as the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA), may have an even slimmer chance of an agreement that would strengthen it. After former President Donald Trump removed the United States from the nuclear deal in 2018 and reinstated harsh economic sanctions against Iran, Tehran responded by enriching uranium beyond the limits imposed by the JCPOA and producing uranium metal. Critics of the JCPOA are calling for a new, more comprehensive deal rather than a return to the time-limited terms of the JCPOA in order to permanently foreclose the possibility of a nuclear-armed Iran. Yet, no one should automatically assume that this is Iran’s ambition. After all, nobody knows for sure that it has decided to build nuclear weapons. While Iran may wan
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