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British Pound Unable To Extend Gains Vs Euro And Dollar Amid 2021 Brexit Trade Friction Fears
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Pound Sterling Technical Analysis: GBP/EUR Eyes 1 1250, GBP/USD Targets 1 42 Into 2021 As Brexit Deal Provides Sterling Relief
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Euro-to-Dollar rate fails to post fresh 31-month highs, near-term volatility liable to increase, dollar looks for new-year respite on seasonal grounds
There will be erratic euro-to-dollar (EUR/USD) trading over the final few sessions of 2020 with low trading volumes and position adjustment dominating.
The Euro will gain some relief from a Brexit trade deal being in place and last-minute window dressing could push EUR/USD higher.
Momentum has, however, slowed with the pair at 1.2200 on Monday from earlier highs at 1.2250.
Near-term coronavirus fears are liable to limit any dollar selling, especially with Europe vulnerable to the new variant. Seasonal factors also tend to trigger a notable dollar recovery in January.
EU trade deal removes substantial pound-to-dollar exchange rate downside risks, major barriers to sustained gains as UK economic reservations continue
Relief over a UK/EU trade deal has removed the near-term downside risks for the pound-to-dollar rate with fears that a no-deal scenario would weaken the UK currency substantially.
The pound, however, will be unsettled by fears over trade friction with the limited scope of the deal also an important restraining factor as services are not covered. Coronavirus restrictions will also undermine near-term economic activity and act as an important headwind for the pound.
A weaker US dollar has dominated thin currency markets with the pound-to-dollar rate around 1.3570. Trading volumes will remain very low in the short term and London markets will be closed on Monday which will maintain the risk of erratic currency moves.
Updated: the GBP/EUR spot rate at time of writing: +0.18% at €1.1038.
The GBP/USD spot rate at time of writing: +0.34% at $1.35103.
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The British Pound to Euro (GBP/EUR) exchange rate is consolidating around the 1.35 handle on Tuesday 29 December, having fallen by almost 1% over the course of yesterday s UK Bank Holiday trade. One factor limiting GBP gains is the rapid spread and likely economic impact of COVID in the UK, including the new reported strain says Gavin Friend, Senior Market Strategist at National Australian Bank. Another reason why we see GBP not rallying strongly against the EUR is the UK will see some negative economic impact from its decision to exit the EU area. The UK’s independent Office for Budget Responsibility has forecast the UK will see a 4% loss in economic growth over fifteen years, than otherwise would have been the case if the UK had stayed in the EU. The true extent of
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