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Calculated Risk: Schedule for Week of April 18, 2021

Calculated Risk: Schedule for Week of April 18, 2021
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Will the US fiscal cliff crash markets?

MacroBusiness Access Subscriber Only Content at 1:20 pm on April 9, 2021 | 1 comment We have noted a few times recently that the US economy faces a hiccup later this year and early next as its fiscal stimulus growth pulse crashes with year-on-year comparisons. This goes to the often overlooked fact that when it comes to GDP growth inputs, it is the rate of change in spending that matters not the absolute amount. There will be considerable growth offsets as the private economy roars back open and enjoys catch-up growth but the fiscal downdraft will be strong while we wait for the second round stimulus of the Biden infrastructure plan. Albert Edwards at Societe General has more:

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This Is An Unprecedented, Bad Combo : Why Some Traders See A Shock Growth Hit Dead Ahead

by Tyler Durden Thursday, Apr 08, 2021 - 03:50 PM Over the weekend, we explained why both Goldman and JPM expect economic activity in April and May to top Anything We ll See In Our Careers , on the back of four main factors: i) continued stimulus injections, ii) $1.5tn in excess savings, which Goldman expects that to rise to about $2.4tn, or 11% of GDP, iii) a record share of respondents planning to purchase a home in the coming months, and iv) $4.44 trilion currently sitting in US money market fund. But what happens then. Will the record stimulus tailwind - and soaring inpuct costs - become a margin-crushing headwind which will hammer the economy in the second half?

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January 2021 Coincident Indices Are Inconsistent In Their Assessment Of Economic Conditions

January 2021 Coincident Indices Are Inconsistent In Their Assessment Of Economic Conditions
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Coronavirus Economic Weekly News 28March 2021

Coronavirus Economic Weekly News 28March 2021
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