Adriaan Kruger The important figure to watch is the annual growth, which an economist says will show the economy shrank by around 7% compared to 2019. Picture: iStock Economists generally expect that the economy would have continued its recovery in the last quarter of 2020 – with forecasts mostly around the 5% level – but that the Covid-19 pandemic would see gross domestic product (GDP) shrink by around 7%. Statistics SA will announce the GDP figures for the final quarter of 2020 and the year today. Hugo Pienaar, chief economist at the Bureau for Economic Research, says the team at the University of Stellenbosch expects further economic recovery in the fourth quarter of 2020, but that the figure will not be as strong as the growth in the.
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Economy probably contracted by 7% last year
Economists expect further recovery in the final quarter of 2020 to be announced on Tuesday, but it will take years to reach pre-Covid levels. 00:01
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The severity of the expected contraction makes the economic shocks of 2009 look mild. Image: Waldo Swiegers, Bloomberg
Economists generally expect that the economy would have continued its recovery in the last quarter of 2020 â with forecasts mostly around the 5% level â but that the Covid-19 pandemic would see gross domestic product (GDP) shrink by around 7%.
Statistics SA will announce the GDP figures for the final quarter of 2020 and the year as a whole on Tuesday (March 9).
Statistical and economic data published this week will provide the first estimate of how South Africa’s Covid-19 lockdowns has impacted its GDP over the past…
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Ina Opperman After a disastrous 2020 when the South African economy was seriously damaged, economists expect some slow growth. Picture: AFP/File/Jekesai NJIKIZANA Professor Jannie Rossouw from Wits Business School has a stark message for what he expects in the future: “Hardship for people who cannot find jobs and stay unemployed.” Hugo Pienaar, chief economist of the Bureau for Economic Research (BER) at the University of Stellenbosch, expects a two-speed recovery in 2021, with exports benefitting from a robust global economic recovery. “Domestic demand may be more sluggish, especially if we experience a severe third wave. This could see some of the recovery that should have taken place in 2021 postponed into 2022. “The strength of the recovery will also crucially be influenced.