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New And Existing Home Sales: Fact vs Spin – Investment Watch

Existing home sales, reported last Thursday, were down 3.7% from February (down 6.3% in February). Wall St was thinking they would rise 0.8%. The seasonally adjusted annualized sales rate dropped to 7-month lows. The reason for struggling existing home sales is three-fold. First and most obvious is rising mortgage rates. If the Fed had not been throwing at least $80 billion per month at the mortgage market, mortgage rates would have been rising since last April and would be much higher than current mortgage rates. This would have prevented the double digit housing price inflation of the last 12 months, which to a large degree is starting to “freeze” housing market activity.

Stock Market Risk-Taking Is Going Parabolic – Investment Watch

The “beta” for long/short equity hedge funds has more than tripled vs the average beta since at least December 2018. Beta is the most common measure of stock or portfolio volatility relative to a broad equity index. Technically, beta is the percentage change in a stock (or fund) for every one percent change in the index.  A stock/fund with a beta of 1 tends to move in percentage correlation with the index. A beta of 2 means a stock/fund moves 2% for a 1% move – up or down – in the index. As this applies to long/short hedge funds, it means these funds in aggregate have substantially increased their long exposure to the riskiest stocks. For long/short funds, it also likely signals that the net long position is at its highest in a long time and/or the amount of margin/leverage applied is soaring. Hedge funds have been underperforming passive investment funds and the broad indices. My bet is this huge allocation to riskier stocks is a reckless effort to raise hedge fund perform

Buying ARKK Is Like Playing Russian Roulette – Investment Watch

I first presented ARKK as a short idea in the January 3, 2021 of my  Short Seller’s Journal issue at $124.49. And of course like every other insanely overvalued stock or ETF, it continued to run higher, with a high-close of $156 on February 12th. As air seems to be leaking out the stock bubble, ARKK has taken a 25% beating since the high-close. At one point Friday it was down 32% from the high-close. ARKK is an ETF that has attracted a high degree of speculative interest because it has invested heavily in many of the high-beta, Silicon Valley “tech” and bio-tech stocks. These are stocks that have captured the market’s imagination to such an extreme degree that once again, just like in 1999, earnings or even the potential to generate earnings are irrelevant. The ARKK Invest website describes its investment thesis as “disruptive innovation.” It harkens back to 1999 when earnings were dismissed as “old economy” and the value of dot.com’s was derived from “clicks

Dave Kranzler: A modest proposal for price discovery in the silver market | Gold Anti-Trust Action Committee

Dave Kranzler: A modest proposal for price discovery in the silver market | Gold Anti-Trust Action Committee
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