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Heat. 45-44%. dont think can win it but look at numbers like this, maybe got a shot. >> for all the talk of the trump momentum, does need to crack the blue wall to have a chance of winning. has he? >> he has not cracked it. democrats use the term the blue wall. 18 states plus the district of columbia won in every election back to 1992. everything blue on the map the democrats have won. significance is they start at 242. takes 270 to win. start with 242, almost to the finish line. has donald trum...

Could help decide the next president of the united states. welcome to "the lead." im jake tapper. in every single cnn analysis of the electoral map, hillary clinton has started at or above the magic number of 270 electoral votes. that means irrespective of how the battleground states would break, she had enough electoral votes to secure the presidency. that is until today. david chalian is over at the magic wall. david, four big shifts in our labeling today, all of them moving towards trump. >> ...

Obama won by nine points. shes up seven. wisconsin. obama won seven points. shes up six. get to pennsylvania. bring this down a little bit. that was five point race. she has a five point lead. no evidence hes cracked the wall. knocking and closer than two weeks ago but not broken through. >> on the path to 270, where does it stand? >> officially cnn count is 272-2 -- bring new hampshire back into the toss-up category. doesnt want to go. toss-up category. now take into account. trump winning in a...

Working class. hes taking this ad, cutting it up, running the highlights two minutes at a time. the idea is to break through all the noise and all the ads in the final weekend. the trump campaign says they believe the message is positive. its a contrast to clintons negative ad. >> a two-minute tv commercial not cheap at all. brian, thanks very much for that. the tightening race has brought some changes to cnns electoral map. david chalian is with us. david, it looks like hillary clinton is now s...

>> its not a question of optimism, its looking at the data and whats going on in the battleground states. i agree with steve, shes overwhelmingly the favorite. she has many more paths, she has the demographics on her side, the recent electoral college history that heavily favors the democratic party. the polls have tightened and both campaigns agree they began tightening before the comey announcement because the affordable care act, the wikileaks stuff. he has the ability to read from the headli...

>> absolutely. next monday, joe, youll see that big unity rally with secretary clinton and president obama and the first lady and former president bill clinton. it underscores how important this state is. the fact that the clinton campaign wants to defend it, feeling perhaps a little jittery as theyre seeing the polls getting tighter. and just to follow up on what youre saying, they want to sols solidify theupport they already have, the path to 270. shes not focused at this point on trying to wi...

These congressional district and one in nebraska and maine and ohio and hinorth carolina. that could be a reach if he does not get north carolina, you would say clinton is over the magic number even though trump does all of that. that takes you the hell mary path that trumps campaign is throwing. even if all of this is breaking their way and they cannot get one of these states, clinton is over. they are looking to a couple of the blue states. we talked about this, michigan in particular, if they...

Mitt romney got 73%. but at least donald trump leading in utah. you are seeing conservative consolidation. that is two pieces of good news for trump. look at the state of georgia. traditionally a ruby red state. a dead heat there in georgia. the clinton campaign working the early voting there. they dont think they can win it but numbers like this maybe they have a shot. >> so trump does need to crack what democrats call the blue wall. is he doing 245. >> hes hes banging on the door but hes not c...

There trump will go past 270. we are feeling good. you take a look at michigan where we have is a dead heat and colorado. a state thats a dead heat. i dont think mr. trump gets enough credit for and mr. trump, we feel good that hes going to be able to win it. you look at a number of absentee of early votes and a number of these states, we are ahead of the pace. we are the ones on offense. >> lets me address the criticism. if you come up short and michigan is a four point race. the question is go...

Handle the economy, and that is the number one issue. so this -- this good report, the way things are going, unemployment ticking down, this is good news for hillary clinton. but also remember, the other piece of why its good news for hillary clinton. this is barack obamas economy, guys. hes at 55% approval. far better than donald trump or hillary clinton. the last poll we took nationally showed that 54% of the country thinks things are going well in the country. thats the highest of the obama p...