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I think we will be winning new hampshire. it is jobs. it is fix our military. take care of our vets. dont let the world take advantage of us. i dont know if im a great messenger but the message is the right message. >> what is the smart thing about saying hes ahead in pennsylvania? no poll finds that at all. >> he said something thats true. iowa, those are states that are very close and he could win. pennsylvania seems to be pulling away for hillary clinton and so does new hampshire. >> and nort...

>> probably mcmullen. >> if you are free for going for mcmullen as donald trump for the winner in utah? hillary clinton? >> sure. even though i dont want my vote to be driven as an anti-this is one case where i feel like its important. >> steve, donald trump if he loses this, this is not on the battle ground map. he is assuming he is going to win utah according to the campaign. if he loses this state, getting to 270 electoral votes, i dont know if its impossible, but it will be very, very diffic...

Town voters there are identified as mormon. hes trailing trump for six points. jacob soboroff is joining me now. ja jacob, utah is the only place that people know who evan mcmullin is. he does not have a lot of recognition in the 50 states. >> reporter: alto get the 270 electoral votes, you need to win the white house. thats because as you said of the huge mormons population here. i spent some time here with one of those republican voters that can help turn the tie and stop donald trump, take a ...

270. if he can win florida though, that path to 270, that very narrow, very precarious path for donald trump, it does still exist. >> lets look at that. lets say he does well in florida. show us the path. show me the way. >> the very easy to follow five color nbc battleground map here. >> this isnt easy. >> all the shades of blue -- i could do a different one next time but the key is this. the ones that are the burnt orange color, these are the tossup states. if youre donald trump, you have to s...

33,187 in 2012. no wonder katy perry held a rally for clinton in clark county on saturday literally gave a ride to some attendees to some of the early voting spots afterwards. in a one-two punch, president obama was in the same county the next day. if theres a single person on earth who knows this data inside and out, its mitch stewart. currently a partner at 270 strategists. i want to start with this before we get to the early voting data. its important for folks to understand when you were sit...

Error, lets not say someone is ahead or behind. its a tie. florida if you look at the bloomberg politics poll, its a tie based on this poll but we do look at trend lines. a man who has had two to three to four of the worst weeks ever and this week desecrating the gettysburg battlefield with his speech accusing sexual accusers of doing things that are actionable in the court of law, hes up two in this poll in the state of florida. the trend lines are not as horrific as 99.98769% of the people on ...

Today "the washington post" officially declared that it considers the state of utah to now be a toss-up in the presidential election this year. which is hilarious. democrats have lost the state of utah by over 40-point margins in three of the last four elections. the best republican showing there in -- sorry, the best democratic showing there in 20 years was still democrats losing by over 20 points in utah. i mean, if utah is now a toss-up, if a democrat might win utah this year, then the one th...

Ooh, fail. im in trouble. >> i like the fact he was in intelligence as i understand it. >> who would have thought a guy from utah was only on the ballot in, what, 11 states, could be the guy to ultimately take down donald trump. >> well, that kind of remains to be seen but that would be something, wouldnt it? >> may not seem, craig, like losing to six electoral votes here in utah is a big deal to the republican bus things are incredibly tight in that race for 270 electoral votes so it would be a...

Trumps campaign, the republican national committee employ just 1400 staffers in 16 states. how well does that work for those who turn out for election day. early voting data offers some potential insight. according to "the washington post," the end of saturday, staffers s s celebrated 39,148 people had vetted compared to 33,187 in 2012. no wonder katy perry held a rally for clinton in clark county on saturday literally gave a ride to some attendees to some of the early voting spots afterwards. i...

>> today? >> probably mcmullin. >> and if youre faced with the choice of going for mcmullin, donald trump as the winner in utah, hillary clinton? >> sure. i really -- even though i dont want my vote to be driven as an anti-this is one case where i feel like its important. >> tam ron, in a sign of how close things are here, republican vice presidential candidate mike pence will be in utah today. that is something that you normally wouldnt see at this stage of the presidential campaign. but the si...