Page 24 - Absentees News Today

Him there. but if past is pro log for absentee "lets go." heres what we look at for the last hour. he ran on election day in 2016, but in the absentees, hes got 59%. so you might expect saccones absentee number to be a lot closer to that 61 to 67. if it anything like that. in washington county, youre looking at the meeting with trump. if its the same thing that happened and youre looking at 53 from the absentee, so if there is a chance at 45 gains

847. again, what we know here is the history, the history is that a couple things. first of all, we know trump won this district -- excuse me, this county with 63% in 2016. we know when they counted the absentees only, they only got 56% of those. the republican kind of drops off. on top of that, saccone has been running south of trumps number, pretty much across the board in this district. you knock that down to 50% and you say its a 50/50 district here, youre not looking at much in terms of a g...

It fell. it fell to 59. thats kind of the history on these absentee ballots, they tend -- look, stale republill an win? they tend to favor democrats on election day. if that past holds, that the republican got 59. if that pattern holds, youre looking at 51 in the absentee for saccone. youre not making up that kind of gap. washington county, its very republican. not westmoreland at 60% here. he was about 61.5% here. if that same thing happened with the absentees, there could even be a chance that...

Manchin democrat. but were going back to steve kornacki at this point. >> i havent added enough wrinkles. im going to add one more there is two x factors. one is the remaining outstanding vote. no change in that since the last time i came on. two, then, the absentee situation. now let me give you three. state law in pennsylvania calls for a recount if the final margin in a race is within half a percentage point. 0.5. well, these are not the exact numbers. the exact numbers right now are conor la...

Got something from the absentees but i think this might have been the last two precincts we were talking about. that might be the election day vote. if thats the election day vote, then what we were just talking about goes doubly because the lions share doing well in allegheny, the democrats doing especially well in the absentee ballots. >> i have to ask you graphically over your other shoulder the viewers can see, it says 98% in. is that us? will that automatically update, and is 98% kind of th...

Preliminary totals, just the final once weve finished everything. >> meaning release the final total of the entire countys vote? >> after weve recorded the absentees. >> well have to do some math when you do that. hearing about and saccone campaign is talking about provisional and military ballots. trying to pin down how many are out there. do you have a sense of how many provisional ballots were cast? >> i do not. we didnt start on those yet. focus was on getting the absentees counted. military...

All the vote. we add the absentees in, thats going to be pretty much what weve got. i got to say, we teased this possibility earlier. we have to check the decimal point. if it ends up within half a point. if the margin between lamb and saccone, if the margin were 0.5% or less, then we go to a recount. lamb would be less than half a percentage vote. if he got that up in the absentee ballots, then youre not counting recount anymore. if it stayed in that range, we would be talking recount. >> so if...

Absentee ballots. >> steve, in my calculations here, i actually wrote 95. before when you told me all that stuff about the precincts, cornell belcher -- the numbers steve laid out for us before, if you were doing it in your head it was something like that or a tie. thats why i kept saying a tie. there you are at a statistical tie. the allegheny absentees look like theyre going to decide this, and they will probably decide this in favor of conor lamb. >> and some young man or woman in the lamb ca...

Extrapolate that, were sitting at 600 or so absentee ballots. if you have to make up 650 votes, we split that, now were 1300. we split the 650 in two, 1625. youre probably going to get -- lets say you have to get 1625 out of 2600 -- okay, you probably need about 63% of the vote. thats probably what saccone would need to get if these estimates are right. 63%. how did he do? could he get 63% in these remaining absentees? 53 is what he got election day, 57 is what he got election day, 58. he would ...

To leave them at 650 and then youll just have absentees in washington, westmoreland an update there. we are now expected -- theyre counting the absentee ballots in both of these counties, so we do now think well get absentees out of these counties tonight. greene, only about 200 absentees there. basically what that means, if those indeed are the precincts, to make up 650 in those absentees, saccone has to pretty dramatically overperform what he did on election day in these republican areas. i li...