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Chance of winning, is that correct? >> we should be careful about probabilities this high because once the probability gets that high, its not so clear that it matters whether its 91%, 95% or 99% but yes, thats right. the probability is high enough that my side is reporting it as currently above 99%. >> just, is it possible to get a hundred percent probability on one of these things? >> it is never possible to get exactly a hundred percent probability. if my site says 101%, you should worry. >> ...

You used to calculate this, professor? >> the princeton election consortium uses entirely state polls, state polls are the most accurate of the polls that are available to polling analysts in the u.s., and so what we do is we take each state, take the available polls for the last two weeks, actually a little bit shorter period now, calculate a median, so arrange them in order and calculate the median of those polls, figure out the possibility from that of whos ahead in either state, in each of t...

>> you need god? >> im at 46. >> what was coming in? >> probably about 113. >> im just feeling as though my stomach is eating itself. >> you come in fourth place in survivor? >> you have got to remind me that i didnt win. >> no. thats pretty. good there is a lot of people running around naked in the jungle. >> i had clothes on for the most part. >> fourth pretty good. firsty people liked you. you get into tv and then you get hired by "the view" as -- and you are a traditional, conservative woman...

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>> it may be that darren wilsons account was the most accurate and he was, in fact, charging. i dont know. there are people who have seen that happen and have very conflicting accounts. >> heres the problem. many people incorrectly conclude from the no indictment that that is a judicial finding of innocence. that is completely incorrect. there is no double jury there. he can face civil charges. a new prosecutor could come in and bring charges all over again, if they wanted to. politically, thats...

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