this post authored by John Fernald, Huiyu Li, and Mitchell Ochse
The COVID-19 pandemic has caused massive disruptions to the U.S. educational system. Research on school closures - particularly combined with parental income loss - implies that children are likely to attain lower levels of lifetime education compared with pre-pandemic trends. Projections show learning disruptions could lower the level of annual economic output by 1/4 percentage point on average over the next 70 years. The effect is small the first 5-10 years then peaks at a loss of 1/2 percentage point in about 25 years when the children reach prime working age.
2020 Lessons, 2021 Priorities this post authored by Mary C. Daly
What lessons should we take from a difficult year - and what should our priorities be for 2021? Overcoming the harsh and uneven economic impacts of COVID-19 and returning to full employment and sustainable 2% inflation will be the Federal Reserve’s chief concerns. But success will require us to have confidence in the power of our tools.
The following is adapted from a presentation by the president and CEO of the Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco to the Arizona State University Economic Forecast Luncheon on December 1.
Hello everyone. It’s safe to say that 2020 has been a year to remember. Twelve months ago, we were in the midst of the longest economic expansion in U.S. history. Unemployment sat near historic lows, wages and incomes were rising, and inflation was moving gradually back toward our 2% target.