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@OSU (46%) Illinois needs Michigan to lose at least twice to have a chance. Going by win percentage, 15-2 (88.2%) edges out 17-3 (85.0%), which would be the case if M drops a game and the Illini win out. 14-3 is an 82.4% mark, so running the table would do it for the Illini if the Wolverines lost two of their remaining games. About that last bit: given the above win probabilities, Illinois has a 7.2% chance at winning out. Say Illinois goes 4-1 down the stretch; thatd put them at 16-4 (80.0%). ...
Source: mgoblog.com