In optical dating, especially single-grain dating, various patterns of distributions in equivalent dose (De) are usually observed and analysed using different statistical models. None of these methods, however, is designed to deal with outliers that do not form part of the population of grains associated with the event of interest (the ‘target population’), despite outliers being commonly present in single-grain De distributions. In this paper, we present a Bayesian method for detecting De outliers and making allowance for them when estimating the De value of the target population. We test this so-called Bayesian outlier model (BOM) using data sets obtained for individual grains of quartz from sediments deposited in a variety of settings, and in simulations. We find that the BOM is suitable for single-grain De distributions containing outliers that, for a variety of reasons, do not form part of the target population. For example, De outliers may be associated with grains that have
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Summary:
For decision makers grappling with data, Bayesian Networks are an overlooked asset. Affordable? Yes. Performance and applicability to edge devices? Yes again. Here s a practical guide to how Bayes Nets can solve enterprise problems.
In part one of this series, we covered some basic probability theory principles - and compared Machine Learning approaches to Bayesian Belief Nets (Can Bayesian Networks provide answers when Machine Learning comes up short?). In this article, we ll dig a little deeper into Bayesian Belief Networks and how they can be applied to complex decisions.
Understanding Bayesian Inference
In my practice, I find most people involved with advanced analytics, such as predictive, data science, and ML, are familiar with the name Bayes, and can even reproduce the simple theorem below. Still, very few have any experience implementing Judea Pearl s Bayesian Belief Networks: