Page 8 - Bear Indicator News Today

Australian shares are set to open higher after the S&P 500 hit a record. The $A has rebounded, oil has extended its rally and the US 10-year yield has plunged.

Johannes Eisele/Getty Images Stocks have been flat over the last month, but pockets of speculation endure. In a recent piece, Lance Roberts argued that stocks are in a bubble that will eventually burst. He shared five indicators that show stocks over-extension. Stocks have effectively gone sideways over the last month, with the S&P 500 down just 0.4% since April 21. But thats unlikely to be the continued fate of stocks as the economic rebound that investors have be...

Stocktake: Retail investors more convinced of market bubble Bullish outlook remains despite assessment of stock value about 2 hours ago   Fund managers are bullish but not euphoric – that’s the takeaway from Bank of America’s (BofA) latest fund manager survey. Contrarians will be concerned that the percentage of managers overweighting stocks remains close to all-time highs. So too is the number of managers taking above-average levels of risk, prompting BofA’s Michael Hartnett to cauti...

MacroBusiness Access Subscriber Only Content at 1:20 pm on April 20, 2021 | 0 comments As usual, the accelerated COVID business cycle that we have dubbed the Amphetamine Cycle, is moving at a lightening pace. Previously, I’ve described the contest of market narratives as good news is good news, good news is bad news and bad news is good news. Q1 was defined by good news is good news with rising yields and stocks plus a strong DXY.  Q2 has shifted to bad is good news with falling yields, risi...

MacroBusiness Access Subscriber Only Content Cross-posted from ZH: It was exactly one month ago that Wall Street exhaled a sigh of relief, and according to the March BofA Fund Manager Survey, consensus among Wall Street’s professionals was that Covid was  biggest tail risk”, both  taper tantrum were now viewed as bigger risks. Perhaps in retrospect declaring victory over covid was premature in light of today’s J&J vaccine halt, but in the meantime, a bulled up Wall Street has only go...

Bond tantrum, inflation, higher taxes: biggest tail risks Share A bond tantrum, inflation and higher taxes are seen as the biggest risks to markets, which Bank of America says are most often associated with a boom rather than a recession. The risk repositioning comes as US equities are in the midst of another record reset rhythm. The S&P 500 rose to a record high in intraday trading on Tuesday (Wednesday AEST), though it was little changed at 1pm. Global investors are positioned for a boom: Ban...

by Tyler Durden Friday, Apr 09, 2021 - 12:09 PM Of all the metrics we have seen in the past year trying to capture the sheer mania and frenzy of the retail rotation into stocks - a process also known as "distribution" because it allows legacy investors to offload to new bagholders - none is better than the following statistic from BofAs Michael Hartnett, who in his latest Flow Show notes "the big flow to know", namely that inflows to stocks past 5 months ($576bn) exceed inflows in prior 12 yea...

ASX to slip, Fed policy meeting in focus Save Share Australian shares are poised for a modest opening dip to start the week after bonds sold off anew on renewed bets the US economic recovery is set to accelerate and interest rate forecasts may need a reset. ASX futures were down 3 points or 0.04 per cent to 6767. On Friday the S&P/ASX 200 rose 53 points or 0.8 per cent to 6766.81. The local currency slipped 0.3 per cent; the Bloomberg dollar spot index rose 0.3 per cent. The yield on the US 10-...

Wall Street’s fear index fell below 20 for the first time in almost a year, a sign that some market watchers say signals a renewed equities rally.

Then, as now, the S&P was at a 20-year high in terms of valuation, the forward price/earnings ratio then just above 19 and now surpassing 22 – yet for those who choose to compare equity earnings yields to Treasury yields, the gap is pretty close: 3.7 percentage points then versus 3.3 now. The spread on high-yield bonds has made an almost-perfect round trip in the past year, sitting right at extreme lows, which fits into a sense that generous credit markets are lubricating the economy and mark...