Street journal, first on china, greg, everyone seems to think that if you dont get a deal, if you can push back tariffs, for now that might be just as good as one, what do you think . Certainly we are past the days where every sickle things got worse, things look worse, the markets took it on the chin, we are now in a stage where things arent getting worse, thats okay, nice if we got better, nice of phase 1 deal but honestly just like staying where we are is satisfactory for the markets. I think, neil, the way to think about it on the trade front we reached a new equilibrium, higher uncertainty, more unilateral action but the markets having sort of got use today the new equilibrium and will take it hard if the equilibrium gets worse. Neil lets say we dont get a delay on tariffs, i imagine that would not be well received . People are putting 75 probability that we delay the the december 15th tariff increases that would be my expectation as well, i dont expect things to be terrible. Neil
Reporters. Abigail, get us started, please. Abigail that divergence you were talking about, the major average slightly higher on the day, that stands out. We have a different situation with different indexes on the week. The s p 500 up for a third week in a row. The nasdaq outperforming this week, but one piece of underperformance is the faang complex. 0. 25 on index down the week. Down for the second week in a row. Index stuckhas this in its own way. Heres a longerterm weekly chart of the faang index. We see these beautiful gains until the end of 2018 when the volatility started. The 40 week moving average in yellow, that is the equivalent of the 200 day moving average. It is hard to see the markets overall climbing too much higher, though that has been happening. It will be interesting to watch how this plays out. Right now, the faang stuck in this range, taylor. Taylor you are stealing my faang, so im going to steal your sauce. This has been outperforming that s p 500 for most of th
Underperformed. Joe i thought the fed would have to cut again. [laughter] japans u. S. Treasury holdings falling 28. 9 billion, the latest number here. 1. 15l by 28. 9 dollars to trillion. This is according to the treasury department. Nonetheless, japan remains on top as the biggest holder of u. S. Treasuries. Caroline lets dive deeper into our market reporters. At the close, what were you watching . Luke scarlet had a good reference with treasuries in the past. Lets look at treasuries in the future. We have a chart showing the 10 year yield in the one year forward yield. The difference between them on the bottom panel here. But we have got here is that throughout the course of the year, people became very much doubting around the time of the first rate cut and the time that the u. S. Dollar offshore yuan broke seven. A strong move downwards in the yellow line and purple line. That is when people started to think we are in for a global recession, world is over. Since then, you see thos
Do is to preemptively narrow production. Both the private sector are heading in the right direction. Speaks candidly about preparing for the next downturn. We are more cautious compared to 2009. Elizabeth warren talks about how she would fix u. S. Trade policy. It is all straight ahead on bloomberg best. Hello and welcome, i am nejra cehic. Interviews, news and analysis from Bloomberg Television around the world. Showingeconomy has been stress in the trade war. A new report tells a positive story. China showing raising hopes over the countrys recovery. Do these numbers mean and does one swallow make a summer . Certainly a positive headline. The official and private sector are heading in the right direction. There is some seasonal effect behind it. Chinas pmiin probably spilled over to the rest of the region. It is certainly a positive number, but we are not seeing any signs of a sustained rebalance. There are encouraging numbers. Ut of china a short time ago we got numbers going the ot
Of bonds versus stocks. We know that as stocks has been rallying, so have bonds. That is interesting because because the correlation between them has been declining over time. The correlation is at the lowest going back a year. But and actually might still be attractive to be buying stocks over bonds. If you look at the chart here inside the terminal, when looking at the dividend yields about the 10 year yield, dividend yield is still offering more return than the 10 year treasury yield. So even though bonds and stocks are high, actually still might make sense to buy dividends over treasury yields. Lets bring volatility and the vix into the equation. What we are looking at is the vix curve. Up, it is this melt at super low levels. The lowest levels we have seen in about a year. Beneath the surface we are seeing the curve steepen. The steepest in three years. Basically what this tells us is even though volatility is low right now, the implied volatility going out further is steepening t