It seems investors once again looking past the difficult months that may be ahead. Pricing forwards month statements are nine months ahead hoping we get past the virus. There could be difficult time ahead but this week you will not know it. David i should say. Thank you to Abigail Doolittle for that report on the markets. Overnight we were reminded of the complexities of the u. S. China relationship as a Foreign Ministry spokesman congratulated Vice President biden even as the trumpet ministration was bidding u. S. Investments in unspecified Chinese Company they say is tied to the chinese army. Richard haass published a Foreign Affairs piece called repairing the world in which he lays out the issues that will be in President Bidens inbox the day he walks into the oval office. Welcome. Great to have you with us. China is in the inbox but is not the first thing. The first thing is covid19. Richard i agree. China is in the inbox and will be for president as for the eye can see your the br
Thank you for being with us on this simulcast, Bloomberg Radio, Bloomberg Television worldwide. Tremendous news flow wrapped around the details of a worsening pandemic worldwide, and indeed across this nation. Also looking at markets off the faxing news, futures up 10, dow futures up the vaccine news, futures up 10, dow futures up. New low on the vix as well. Looking at the calendar, everybody is recalibrating. Weve got a major house recalibration of the equity markets out moment ago. Jonathan at Credit Suisse, Jonathan Golub, they have a forecast yearend on the s p for the end of 2021 with a 12 upside. The 2021 forecast is designed to answer what the future will look like in the future. He makes the point at the end of this paragraph that the rotation into the cyclicals will largely be behind us, and they stay overweight on tech, also overweight on the financials. That is just a flavor of where Credit Suisse are at this morning. Tom the conversation forward, and i cant say enough on r
Green shoots rhetoric. What makes it interesting going into november, the financials had already been up 30 out of the march low, plus the yield curve has, in. The yield curve has come in. It is puzzling why the banks are up so much. It has to do with the narrative of the traders and investors buying cyclical stocks on the potential for strong recovery. Guy i will cheat david i will cheat. You and i talk when we are not on television. What is going on with the yen . Abigail those are some of my favorite conversations because we can move back and forth. The yen does bring attention to itself over last year. It is up about 4 . When you have stocks at alltime highs, you have bonds at record highs, although folks will say the fed the yen is a pure play haven. Over the last year, up about 4 . Some traders might like the fact that stocks are higher, but theyre probably hedging for the possibility there could be choppiness ahead. That is true for the vix. The vix is still above 20. That is in
The russell 2000, another alltime high, up 2. 1 . The s p 500 up a solid 1. 5 . Important is the cyclical reopening rotation we had happening in recent weeks, often it comes at the cost of tech but that is not happen today. The nasdaq 100 is up 1 . This is a bully lock cyclical rotation on the expectation of normalizing economy this is a goldilocks cyclical rotation on the expectation of normalizing economy. I know we have been talking about whether or not it will last. If we take a look at the sectors on the month, it does suggest the cyclical rotation is on the way. Take a look at energy, up 30 . Heading toward its best monthly performance ever. That is the foam oh buying we have around that is the fomo buying we have around energy, but also financials. We have stocks off to the races. Taylor is interesting as we talk about the reflation trade in the outlook for politics. We are looking at bond yields up three basis points on the 10 year, five basis points on the 30 year that goes in
So that is pretty evenly split, actually. Theres certainly quite a lot of recognition that Central Banks need to think about new toolkits. We are going to go to some questions now, but if you want. O use the platform to submit i think larry gave an excellent description of what the core problem is that the developed world faces, that there is a glut of saving and a , and it of investment really means that we have to have fiscal policy, structural policy, and things other than. Ust relying on Central Banks i think Central Banks need to do what can come about they can. Adopting a system called flexible average inflation targeting, i think this is an appropriate change. Somewhat improve the scope of Monetary Policy to show that shortterm Interest Rates are often constrained by the effect of lower bound. I think it is helpful in preventing a cycle of falling inflation feeding falling inflation expectations, but i strongly believe Central Banks need to be independent and need to do everythi