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U.S. consumer confidence is expected to have cooled a touch this month in the Conference Board's monthly survey due later today, although the big release of the week is clearly Friday's PCE inflation gauge. Even though Federal Reserve interest rate expectations have receded to little more than one cut over the remainder of the year, broader financial conditions captured by the Chicago Fed index are at their easiest since November 2021 - four months before the Fed began its tightening campaign. This leaves the Fed with an ongoing conundrum as to whether its restrictive monetary policy has been enough to drag inflation durably back to its 2% target as economic growth keeps humming.

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