Looked at what might happen if we experienced a recession like the last two recessions to the. Org 9 11 and the International Financial banking crisis weve experienced most recently in 2008, and 9 what we see is that if we were to experience a recession like the combination or combine of those two the average over a 3 year peddler almost a billion dollars in revenue all the Revenue Growth this is showing you the top line which is in the light gray showing you our revenue projects projection that is assumed in the Financial Plan and the dark gray is showing you in a recession what we think will happen with the revenue so as you can see the revenue increases were assuming a recession happening you know in 2017 and this almost immediately we lose all the growth tb the first two years and have negative growth we lose by the third year out we still are no where close to recovery where we otherwise would have been if this were to happen the bottom trying to show you the impacts in terms of t
Box is where we are in the budget so we issued the budget instructions in november the governor put out the proposal and the department sent their budget on february 23rd this month we are updating the 5 year Financial Plan which is the joint report and were beginning our conversations with various Budget Stakeholder and starting our budget process in my youll all hear the controllers 9 month update our financial look at where we are that gives us a sense of how much additional unspent money might be available whether Revenue Growth and expenditures savings to help balance that and on june 1st, the mayor will give a balanced budget to the board were early in the process but the departments have a lot of work so for youll be hearing from them from this committee and theyll welcome the opportunity to 0 meet you with individually to sharing their ideas ill be happy to answer any questions. Thank you, ms. Howard colleagues, any questions for ms. Howard. Supervisor tang. Going back to slide
Mayor, i havent worked for a mayor yet that will take an cross the board up to the time cut but look at options and be able to make discussions about those choices from the policy point of view the mayor is continuing to focus on his shared prosperity that is included as part of his budget instruction to ask the departments his proposals focus on affordability and shared prosperity but address fiscal sustainability for the city and government efficiency but address government efficiency and Customer Service and helps to address the population growth were experiencing other instructions are similar to what youve seen before in terms of focusing on the departments for the direct impacts to the public we continued to ask the departments to review tare fees to look at things that are not appraisement appropriate to charge and engage with the stakeholders and work there the processes with the public so we kind of are starting our review in the Mayors Office of Department Proposals the blue
Associated with our Public Safety hiring plan plan also assumes the package from november of the increases in the mta baseline the citys minimum wage and the renewal of the Childrens Fund so those restraining order incorporated into the projections and finally we assume that in the first year of the budget which was the second year of last years budget the funding for capital and it are based on what was actually opportunity by i did mayor and the board so im going to go into revenues and talk about expenditures. Ms. Howard just so our community is clear and members of the public those numbers were compiled a few moose good this is to get an action item on the full 5 year plan in the next few weeks. Thats correct three weeks is what were talking about i expect updated numbers in the next week this is the because of the 5 year Financial Plan and well talk about the update in a couple of weeks on the revenue does the Revenue Growth is strong throughout the 5 year frontals assuming there
Expenditures grow more quickly than the revenues are growing our fiscal strategy is really youre not to cut programs and services but to grow at a slower rate instead of growing the cost of government by 23 percent grow at 18 percent that is closer to cip and identify the revenues solutions that what about part of that package so we propose in the plan a number of fiscal strategies to solve the gaps in every year including reviewing Capital Spending and restructuring some of the debt and generating savings and manage the benefit costs the contract we negotiate with the employees as well as the good work both the retirement and Health Services to manage city costs as they generate returns in the Pension System we assume some new ref revenue over and above what is in the plan as a portion of the solving the gap here managing our nonpersonnel costs this is again not making reductions but growing more slowly than the base case it assumes inflation and slightly less increase and then lookin