These are your markets with a little bit of uncertainty because of a drone attack in saudi arabia over the weekend. Trying to figure out the implications for the middle east and geopolitical tensions. This is what we are seeing in european stocks. Crude oil off the highs we saw the last couple of days where it surged from 17. Press conference from Boris Johnson yesterday, a little bit of weakness when it comes to pound. Watch out for the Supreme Court hearing. We are expecting it couple of days but it starts today on the thingsy of some of the parliament but also the government are trying to do with brexit. Economic nobelhe prize winner coming up at 11 a. M. London time. Lets get the first word news. Vivina in the u. K. Is where we begin. The Supreme Court starts hearing the case against Prime Minister Boris Johnsons suspension of parliament. At the center of the debate is if the decision is a matter for the court. The court may not rule until next week. President trump says the u. S.
Few parts, part one is an assessment of current recession risks. And i would argue that they are considerable, high and rising and will go through the logic as to why. Or two, most recessions or all recessions have a proximate cause generally lots of things going on that are behind the downturn but you can put your finger on the thing that is the approximate reason for the downturn. All do that and ill talk about what could take us down, trade war would be a topic. We can talk about that in some detail. Then well talk about the roadmap to recession, a lot of different indicators, you want to be focused on to gauge how things are playing out whether hes right or wrong. Then well talk about policy. Monetary policy and the response to recession and because Interest Rates are already very low, the federal funds rate target is at 2 today, i think next week itll be a one and three quarters. Thus on a whole lot of room between that and 0. That is we need fiscal policy to play a key role in th
The talk is broken down into a few parts, part one is an assessment of current recession risks. And i would argue that they are considerable, high and rising and will go through the logic as to why. Or two, most recessions or all recessions have a proximate cause generally lots of things going on that are behind the downturn but you can put your finger on the thing that is the approximate reason for the downturn. All do that and ill talk about what could take us down, trade war would be a topic. We can talk about that in some detail. Then well talk about the roadmap to recession, a lot of different indicators, you want to be focused on to gauge how things are playing out whether hes right or wrong. Then well talk about policy. Monetary policy and the response to recession and because Interest Rates are already very low, the federal funds rate target is at 2 today, i think next week itll be a one and three quarters. Thus on a whole lot of room between that and 0. That is we need fiscal
Downturn but you can put your finger on the thing that is the approximate reason for the downturn. All do that and ill talk about what could take us down, trade war would be a topic. We can talk about that in some detail. Then well talk about the roadmap to recession, a lot of different indicators, you want to be focused on to gauge how things are playing out whether hes right or wrong. Then well talk about policy. Monetary policy and the response to recession and because Interest Rates are already very low, the federal funds rate target is at 2 today, i think next week itll be a one and three quarters. Thus on a whole lot of room between that and 0. That is we need fiscal policy to play a key role in the response and not talk about that and put into the context of experience that we had ten years ago now with the recovery act and other policy responses. Does that sound okay . Okay. Part one recession risks, as they said their height and rising, that gives you a sense, this is a major
Test. Test. Test. Test. Test. Test. Test. Test. Test. Test. Test. Test. Test. Test. Test. Test. Captioning performed by vitac there are some well known differences in the current economic environment compared to past environments that make the yield curve a little less of an indicator. The probabilities are pretty high. If you take the unjusted measure, and the other financial variabilities, a year from now, the Second Quarter of 2020, the probability of recession is roughly twothirds. If i make an adjustment, its still high, its not far away. The shaded bars represent recessions. Every time this measure goes over 40 , weve had a recession. And theres a lot of more fundamental reasons to be a little nervous about whats going on out there and why recession risks are high. If you look globally, a number of Major Economies are already in recession or pretty close. Germany, italy, the uk, brexit is complicating things for them. Mexico, brazil, singapore, its small but most open economy on