As if lenders and vendors don’t have enough other stuff to worry about, the budgetary standoff in the U.S. doesn't look like it will abate soon, raising the likelihood of the first government shutdown since 2019. Current funding for federal operations will end on October 1 unless a deal is reached or the proverbial can kicked down the road. Thousands of federal workers might be furloughed without pay. Sure it will be temporary, and its wider impact will likely be limited, but still even talking about it is lousy. According to Morgan Stanley, the last 20 government shutdowns that occurred since 1976 "appear to have had limited impact on the economy." As for bond prices, a shutdown may cause some "temporary instability", but this is not a given. There is talk of a short-term Continuing Resolution (CR) providing funding until later this year, but federal agencies, including HUD and Treasury, will cease to function normally. The National F
With the Fed set to end its MBS purchases tomorrow, removing free money from the MBS market, where do you think home affordability will go from here? Mortgage rates are already at their highest levels since 2008 and in theory, a large buyer exiting the space should push MBS prices down and thus mortgage rates up. As one California mortgage executive wrote to me, “Home prices ran up 20 to 30 percent for two years, as Fed Chair Powell could not figure how to get his foot off the accelerator. There are good borrowers and good LTVs out there, but most have been priced out of the market with home values rising 20 percent per year. Take the free money away, and none of this is sustainable.” There is debate about if the Fed’s actions have created some sort of housing bubble. It remains to be seen whether home prices work their way lower, we see no price increases for a couple of years, or the pace of appreciation merely moderates. Helping affordability, more lenders are r