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Of whites fell by two points again. its been a consistent trend. it went from 74% down to 72%. looking at florida there was a -- look at this. a fouroint drop in the soters since 2008. there was a four point drop in the share of the white vote in ohio since four years ago. made up mostly in the voters. the racial composition of the electorate in virginia was identical to what it was in virginia national popular vote again is going to be looks likeq; right on the nose. the closest state to the na...

Looks steeper. all that by 9:00, folks. keim your eye on loudoun county in virginia, hamilton county in ohio and hillsborough. they were bush counties in 04. obama counties in 08. if they are going to move back and forth, it will happen. polls close at 9:00 in wisconsin. 10:00 brings us iowa and nevada. something else to watch, the margins among whites and hispanics. doesnt the president break among 40% in white voters. can romney hold the president under 70% among hispanics. in our most recent ...

Matrix in their polling. could you break that down for us? how could the majority of the media polls be wrong? >> its unlikely that the romney camp is right, but their hopes are squarely vested in the notion that the totality of the public polling that its been wrong and that the model that they predict which will lead them to victory is one seen only by them is going to manifest itself tonight. theyve vested squarely in the belief that in state after state that the model that all of the media a...

49%/49%. and finally one more about the challengers images. for mitt romney, 45%/44%. for john kerry 45%, 44%. i wont bring up the whole massachusetts aspects. bush went on to win that race thanks to a razor thin victory in ohio. so lets dig deeper inside the numbers. we all know it comes down to turnout. tomorrow it will come down to turnout but its more complicated. the single most important question will be what is the racial composition of the electorate? and then, of course, the second ques...

Four president obama. they surveyed 9% of likely voters up for grabs meaning theyre undecided and they have a more positive feeling towards president obama than romney. in one part you have good news with governor romney with independents, but the undecideds that we talk about every minute of every day or at least in this poll breaking for obama. >> i think that chuck todd had a good analysis where they pointed out that the racial composition of the voters is really of significance. where is tha...

Of a seam less thing. >> watch another angle as the car flies at grinner. covering him with sparks and flames. its almost inconceivable how he doesnt get crushed. >> that was close. >> he holds his camera steady until the very last second. >> just standing there like i was hypnotized thinking -- what a great -- im looking at the screen, i am looking at composition. >> i hate to say that but carnage is the money shot in our world. we hate wrecks. but tv loves it. thats why the spectators come. th...

Determine how close this race is and maybe ultimately who the winner is but barack obama has real advantages among real large constituencies as well. >> would you agree with that analysis, it has to be 29 points for romney, david? >> i dont think it has to be that large. again, i go back to where bush was in terms of 2004, around 17. maybe a little bit higher than that. i mean, one of the things that steve gets at in terms of what ron brownstein has raised and that is one of the things the polls...

It sounds credible. why? why is he losing so much ground in places where hes generally popular? >> i think theres a pretty simple formula to use to explain a lot of movement at the state level. in the places where obama won a lot of bush voters, obama has fallen back a lot and state like wisconsin, won by 14. dead heat now. he won indiana by 1% last time even though bush won it 20% and not competitive and true across the north. but in the south obama didnt really pick up white bush voters. inste...

That we evolved, the thing we became good at were those gut level instinctive judgments do i trust this person to go hunting with? >> yes. >> do i trust this person to take care of my kids? id glad to hear that. thank you. people dont judge based on the issues and theyre not knowledgeable enough. the fact of the matter is were best designed to make those gut level character judgments. >> part of whats said here by this group what will they learn is were not educating our college students well en...

Obama and mitt romney both in ohio today, the focus is likely to shift back to the economy. rob and paula, back to you. >> thanks a lot, karen. this thursday, its the candidates for vice president who will meet face to face, and our own martha raddatz will moderate that debate. abc, of course, will carry it live. it all kicks off at 9:00 p.m. eastern time. they say bind could be feeling the pressure. the president did so poorly. now pressure on joes shoulders to come out there and kind of mayb...