Page 357 - Cone News Today

Florida. earlier i told you, where the center of the storm was earlier this morning there were 17 storms within 100 miles and only one ib made landfall in florida in 2004, now where the center of dorian is, we went back to 1950, found 12 storms, only one made landfall two years ago on the florida peninsula. some in the gulf, many in the atlantic. a lot can happen here, percentages are on our side, every storm is different. lets take the cone of uncertainty. from miami up to georgia, the steering...

Because this was out of the cone yesterday. we always say follow the cone. remember the cone is wide. st. croix wasnt even in it yesterday. what happens after that? what happens after that 70 mile-per-hour wind goes throug puerto rico? it will make a run at florida as a category 2 or higher hurricane. this is the storm right now getting a lot brighter in color overnight. that means the center is getting more intense. still a 60 mile-per-hour storm. but you can see it on radar from puerto rico. n...

The big high pressure thats going to steer this thing back to the west, stronger, weaker remains to be seen. so were going to watch. anywhere in this area, even up to the georgia coast and the south carolina coast, we have to pay attention. two-thirds of the time we expect the center to be somewhere in that cone. lets pay attention to it over the next few days and watch for those changes. >> lets talk about the next few hours. impact on puerto rico. the eastern side of the island. which is part ...

It will be a guarantee if this storm basically goes right over the center of puerto rico and as far as rain is concerned, thats really ramped up in the last day or so as well as far as the forecast goes. we were looking at two to four inches of rain, were talking six to ten. some areas more and that will produce quite a bit of flooding as well as mudslides as we go through the next 24 to 48 hours. >> what about the rest of the u.s. coastline? we can see the cone headed toward florida. >> thats r...

Land and thats a 70 to 80% probability well see the winds. it will be a guarantee if this storm basically goes right over the center of puerto rico and as far as rain is concerned, thats really ramped up in the last day or so as well as far as the forecast goes. we were looking at two to four inches of rain, were talking six to ten. some areas more and that will produce quite a bit of flooding as well as mudslides as we go through the next 24 to 48 hours. >> what about the rest of the u.s. coast...

Thats what helps build them. helps intensify them. that very warm water. so that is what were expecting. in the short term, weve got the path narrowed down pretty well. over the open atlantic. then you see this odd shift to the west. basically make a bee line for florida. now, where in florida exactly, the entire coast from jacksonville all the way down toward miami is in that cone. the real question is why the sudden turn. typically these storms always want to veer to the north. it takes a very...

Factors when it comes to the extended forecast. look at this cone. i mean, the cone is really important in this case because two thirds of the time, alisyn, we can see the center of the storm anywhere inside this cone. and that means from the south carolina coast all the way down to south florida, any of those areas could be impacted because it all depends on the strength of this ridge. theres so many different factors to go into this, so everybody in this area, we just needs to be ready to have...

U.s. virgin islands. this storm is going to run right across the virgin islands and into the eastern half of puerto rico thats what was hit so hard last time by maria. the cone is wide. five days away, the cone is 200 miles on either side. even one of the models ive been looking at, the american model takes this and misses florida altogether a lot like matthew. so we have a lot more options here and 120 hours away in a model is a long, long time. gusts of 70. hurricane hunter just left curac cur...

Stronger, why? >> we actually, if you look over history, the track were doing better over time with improvements in the models with intensity. intensity still very tough. its the ocean parameters. less interaction over some of the mountains. that means less time over water. with time, we are forecasting hurricane. theres plenty of time to strengthen. weve got to watch for updates on forecast. weve got to be careful not just to look at the forecast now. watch for the updates because it does chang...

>> i think it is the thing that weve been talking about for the last few days here, we stressed the uncertainty, and look at this cone, wolf, we expect the center to be anywhere in this cone two thirds of the time. so the big thing we have to stress is not the center forecast, not just where that line is, not where the center, but listen to where it could be, anywhere from georgia, the entire coast of florida, were letting people know, if youre in there, you have to assume youre going to be impa...