essentially moving sideways, but on my forecast, i think it will tip into the economy contracting over the next couple of quarters as the drug wins out. the next couple of quarters as the drug wins out- the next couple of quarters as the drug wins out. that means you are ”redictin drug wins out. that means you are predicting an drug wins out. that means you are predicting an official drug wins out. that means you are predicting an official recession. - predicting an official recession. that is right. we are predicting a mild recession by historical standards. i wouldn t get too worried about whether it is a recession, the big picture is we ve got an economy which is weak and essentially on its knees, before the full impact of higher interest rates has been felt. so i think that is the main message, whether there is a technical recession, which is defined as two quarters of consecutive contractions in gdp, or whether we bounce around with the economy moving sideways. the