Dave Leip News Today

As Democrats try to hold the Senate through defending red states, a look at the rise and fall of split Senate outcomes in presidential years.KEY POINTS FROM THIS ARTICLE— This is the second part of our history of presidential-Senate split-ticket results, from World War II to now. This part covers the mid-1980s to present, a timeframe that started with many instances of split results and ended with hardly any at all.— In 1984 and 1988, amidst large GOP victories at the presidential level, mor...

Since the South Carolina Republican Party introduced the state's "First in the South" presidential primary in 1980, the race has often positioned one GOP contender as the unquestioned front-runner moving into later primaries. In 2024, South Carolina could once again prove decisive in the Republican presidential primary, albeit as a potential final nail in the coffin. Heading into Saturday's contest, former President Donald Trump holds a dominant position in the GOP race ove...

As Democrats try to hold the Senate through defending red states, a look at the rise and fall of split Senate outcomes in presidential years.KEY POINTS FROM THIS ARTICLE— In the post-World War II era, there have been nearly 200 instances of states voting for one party for president and another for Senate in presidential election years.— This type of ticket splitting has generally been to the benefit of Democrats, who have been out of the White House for a slight majority of that timespan.—...

Since the South Carolina Republican Party introduced the state's "First in the South" presidential primary in 1980, the race has often positioned one GOP contender as the unquestioned front-runner moving into later primaries. In 2024, South Carolina could once again prove decisive in the Republican presidential primary, albeit as a potential final nail in the coffin. Heading into Saturday's contest, former President Donald Trump holds a dominant position in the GOP race ove...

Recent non-major party vote strongest out west -- and not in the states likeliest to decide 2024.KEY POINTS FROM THIS ARTICLE— Potentially weak major party nominees paired with a long list of third party candidates could lead to a higher-than-usual level of third party voting in 2024.— Recent third party performance has generally been strongest in western states and weakest in the South.— The states that are most likely to decide the 2024 election have not had high average third party voti...

Roosevelt entered the fray by forming the Progressive Party, often called the Bull Moose Party.

Trend from 1996-2020 shows a much larger partisan gap between bigger and smaller counties, with 2000 and 2016 as key contributors.KEY POINTS FROM THIS ARTICLE— The presidential voting gap between the nation’s most populous counties and the rest of the nation has nearly tripled from 1996 to 2020.— The 2000 and 2016 elections were the biggest contributors to this gap.— While there is nearly a 40-point difference between the top and bottom halves, the gap did not grow from 2016-2020.

Just 151 out of 3,100+ counties cast half the national vote; gap between top and bottom half expanding.KEY POINTS FROM THIS ARTICLE— Just about 150 of the nation’s more than 3,100 counties cast half of the nation’s presidential vote in 2020.— As we typically see at the state level, the more vote-rich counties are more Democratic, while the thousands of smaller counties that make up the bottom half are more Republican.— This political gulf has widened. Despite similar overall national p...

How the 2020 map provides a template for 2024.KEY POINTS FROM THIS ARTICLE— In 2020, Donald Trump would have needed to flip 37 additional Electoral College votes to reach 269, thereby winning an effective majority in the Electoral College, thanks to a likely Republican advantage if the Electoral College produces a tied outcome.— The 2024 Electoral College map will reflect the 2020 census’s reallocation of electoral votes. Using this new map, the GOP will need to flip 34 electoral votes (do...

Also some larger observations on how all the states have trended.KEY POINTS FROM THIS ARTICLE— The West Coast states have all been Democratic-leaning in nearly every recent presidential election.— One exception was Oregon, which leaned slightly right of the nation in 2000, although it is now a solidly blue state.— Looking nationally, Biden was the best-performing recent Democratic nominee in several Sun Belt states — many of which will be at the center of the 2024 campaign.— Donald Tru...