arctic blast paralyzed iowa. we have record cold weather, snowfall, record everything. nobody can forecast what the turnout is going to be. are we in for an iowa surprise? plus, mike in the middle. this place is a joke. republ republican threaten to shut down the government. we ve wasted an entire week. if he doesn t show up, i guess we ll just have to wrap it up without him and assume that these were bribes. plus, replacing george santos. people are concerned about safety, about the economy. how much are biden and trump shaping races where they re not on the ballot? inside politics reporting from inside the corridor of power starts now. good morning. i m manu raju. it is finally here. after months of rallies, handshakes and photo ones, the presidential candidates will face off tomorrow in the first contest of 2024. the stage has been set in the hawk eye state and now the political world is reacting to a major new poll from the des moines register and nbc ne
campaigns. you can add desa we haven t s this kind of lead heading into the caucuses like this, a non incumbent candidate. if this is what the results look like monday night, donald trump s going to be well on his way to quashing the competition and moving towards this nomination. you re so right. this is finally the time for voters to vote. polls are polls. they are a snapshot in time. voters vote it matters here. just dig deeper in this final poll. about the undecided aspect. who is undecided here in this state. mind is made up. 68% of voters in iowa say that, iowa republican voters say their mind is made up. there s still about a quarter of the vote who say they could be persuade, but it is different per candidate here, as david was talking about the dominance of
somewhat of a drag, but i think what you saw there is her not betting on trump s popularity helping her gang busters in that district. i think, look. nationally, how people feel about biden and trump really matters, but in this district, george santos and that legacy really matters and tom is a known name. so i think bouncing these two things is really interesting. is the standing of the two leading national candidates going to be important or are the specifics of that race going to be important? i d be looking to how people think about the legacy of santos and people s recognition. but it s also the democratic branch that even in a district like new york, it s a swing district. new trump poll out, biden down by eight points nationally to trump. 33-41. how much of the democratic brand, david, impacting races down ticket like this one?
support, it s not just the intensity of support inside the republican base, but who the support is coming from. which is why we see you re doing so well in new hampshire because independents can play in the primary, but looking at the calendar, has a lot more closed primaries where it s dominated by republicans and conservatives than the contests were dominated by moderates and independents. that is nikki haley s math challenge. just to dive deeper with nikki haley. about her support. the polls are talked about the jaw dropping nature of her unennewu unenthusiastic supporters. extremely unenthusiastic. 49% trump. 9% for haley. then you talk about where the support lies. margaret, you talked about this. 49% of republican voters are supporting haley as first choice, but that is 50% of independents and democrats. as david was just saying there, the problem for haley is that in new hampshire, that s where most
so there s no question that trump supporters are the most committed so they are perhaps the most likely to turn out. but some of them have to drive the farthest as well. supporters in rural areas. nikki haley is looking for the suburbs. weather now is part oof it but no one has more on the line than florida governor desantis who knows he needs a second place finish here. he s campaigning aggressively here today. he says he needs a second place finish. jeff, stay warm, my friend. we ll talk to you soon. my panel is with me now to break this down. margaret from axios, david chal, david, you re back. you were in iowa. barely made it back in time for this show. give us your lay of the land. where is this race now and how significant is tomorrow? one of the things i find