corridor or exports flows, that can continue to be fraught with risk. and the final thing is the other producing regions, you know, we are seeing some sort of climate change, unfortunately, which does create havoc across the world, particularly tropical countries. so, whether it s floods or droughts, inevitably you re going to see some of that in some key producing region. and i think that, again, may affect the supply side. so, bottom line, unfortunately, i think prices are not likely to get back to levels we saw pre 2019, the pre covid levels because the whole world has structurally changed. costs are higher, inflation is here, the cost of processing and shipping things are high. so prices may come off a little bit, but we re not going to go back to levels we saw five years ago, for example. so, kona, i mjust wondering, do we as consumers who, let s be frank, have been used to pretty cheap food for some years,
effective depends very much on the perceptual threshold. so, for example, in weight, if i compare two weights, i need at least two grams of difference for 100x100 grams to perceive that difference at all. now, over time, that becomes more, so i maybe forget that last week, you know, that carton of milk or that little piece of tea or so was slightly heavier than this week. so, companies understand what the perceptual threshold for the different units is, they have good chances to make shrinkflation successful. kai, are retailers, are they nervous about raising prices? oh, yes. that is a big issue.
so i would say that at least 50% was absorbed by the company and 50% was given back to the industry, so to the market. but again, this is up to the fact that we can do it because we are a family company. and, antonio, you negotiate with all the big retailers around the world. i m wondering how difficult have those negotiations been, given these surging prices? yeah, you know, i totally understand also their position because if i compare what is happening to retailer in this moment, you know, costs like energy that in the past were less than 1%, now we are to 5%, 6%, 7% that at the end they buy and very sell the products to consumers. so i would say that it s very, very tough discussion for sure. and we got many example
written the book on this. it s called the invisible game: the secrets and the science of winning minds and winning deals. kai markus mueller, a real pleasure having you on this show. and, kai, let s start with this. what are some of the tips and tricks that retailers use? well, there is a wealth of them in consumer psychology. but i ll tell you a few of them. a very, very, very strong component is, for example, the default effect. so, for example, if you have a subscription, it renews by default, and we have trouble thinking about the renewal, wejust let it go. then there are things like red signs for discounts. people have learned these things, over and over that red signs give you pleasure. people believe that they get a good deal, despite the fact that they are actually playing a game that is set by the company that sells these products. and, kai, i m wondering,
and, you know, we don t have the same access to the profit structures of our branded suppliers, but we do challenge them as hard as we possibly can. ok, so let s start with the raw ingredients. take wheat, for example. before the pandemic, about four years ago, a bushel of wheat was trading on the market at $4.70. that spiked when russia invaded ukraine one year ago. the same amount of wheat went up to almost 13 bucks a bushel. but at the end of march this year, it was sitting at around $7, much less than the peak, but still 47% higher than before the pandemic. it s a similar story with cooking oil. before the pandemic, a pound of soybean oil was trading at around $0.29. after the war began, that shot up to nearly $0.76, so more than doubled. and now it s settled somewhere in between at around $0.55 a pound. still, 90% more than before the pandemic. much of those costs follow the same