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U.S. recession: The U.S. seems to be dodging a recession. What could go wrong?

Inflation falling, unemployment low, and the Federal Reserve could cut interest rates. Wells Fargo economists predict a soft landing, but still see elevated recession risk due to signs of weakness in the labor market. The effects of higher interest rates may be slower this time as companies refinance debt and buffers like savings and credit card borrowing dwindle. The return of inflation could put policymakers in a tight spot, unable to cut rates and potentially considering rate hikes. Unforesee...
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Top 8 threats to the global economy in 2024: A pessimist's guide

The Middle East conflict, with the potential to choke off oil flows and push inflation higher, poses a risk to global growth. This conflict could escalate tensions in the Red Sea and draw Iran deeper into the fighting. The Federal Reserves pivot to rate cuts could be burned by a supply shock from the Middle East or looser financial conditions. Europe faces the risk of a deep recession as the European Central Bank and Bank of England conclude their tightening cycles. The global economy could be i...
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View: Being a growing global power means baring oneself to global crosswinds

2024 is likely to be a year where political risks eclipse hard economic risks. These go beyond the possibility of an escalation of tensions in Ukraine, or the Gaza conflict spreading to the larger Arab world. Elections are known to breed uncertainty, and a record 40 elections (in countries that represent a little over 40% of both global GDP and population) are due in 2024. I would keep an eye on three major elections, apart from our own general election:
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