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Shadow Risk: What Crisis Simulations Reveal about the Dangers of Deferring U.S. Responses to China's Gray Zone Campaign against Taiwan

Download the Brief The Issue This brief explores escalation dynamics in Chinaโ€™s gray zone campaign targeting Taiwan based on the results of 20 crisis simulations. CSIS finds that U.S. policymakers face shadow risk in gray zone confrontations: the desire to avoid short-term escalation triggers an increased appetite for risk in future disputes. In other words, deferring U.S.
East China Sea Japan General United States United Kingdom T Ai Pei New Zealand
Source: csis.org

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