be showing up in most polls it s based on an npr poll suggesting the president s team is behind governor romney when it comes to independent voters by 12 points and a cbs new york times poll that reflects the same numbers. a deficit for the president when it comes to independent voters. how does this work? michael barone is the senior political analyst and fox news contributor. i guess the theory is the republicans and democrats will be split and the independents will make the difference? and romney is winning with them? that s the theory. 2008 democratic party identifier outnumbered republicans 32 points. 2010 party identification was even. that s from exit poll data. if the parties are even in strength as when they are in
now experience means nothing, because the american electorate is changing too fast for us poor pundits to keep up with it. a new article in the national journal points out that if president obama faced an electorate with the same racial and ethnic composition of the 1980s, president obama would have lost the 2008 election. joining me now, alicia menendez, the host of huff post live and professor of science at emory university. professor, you have studied this demographic change that occurred in the electorate. you went over this exit poll data and all this information for the national journal in putting that article together. what are the big changes between now and say the reagan era on who is going to the polls in american and voting? well, i think the biggest change, by far, has been the dramatic increase in the
now experience means nothing, because the american electorate is changing too fast for us poor pundits to keep up with it. a new article in the national journal points out that if president obama faced an electorate with the same racial and ethnic composition of the 1980s, president obama would have lost the 2008 election. joining me now, alicia menendez, the host of huff post live and professor of science at emory university. professor, you have studied this demographic change that occurred in the electorate. you went over this exit poll data and all this information for the national journal in putting that article together. what are the big changes between now and say the reagan era on who is going to the polls in american and voting? well, i think the biggest change, by far, has been the
let s take a break to the magic wall to show why we re predicting why walker will keep his job as governor of wisconsin. number one, it s obvious. red is republican. you see a lot of red. dane county here, this is the key county for democrat, 8% of the population. democrats say their turnout operation worked well there. but tom barrett the democrat getting 60% and scott walker getting 40% right there. barrett needs to be up around 70% in this key county right there. let s come back to the map here a little bit. this is waukesha county. the key county for republicans in this state. 75%, scott walker got just over 70% last time. he s overperforming. as we go from county to county, come up here, brown county, where green bay is, walker getting 60% with 75% of the vote in. that s an improvement from two years ago. you can pick your key county across the state. everything we see so far. the republican incumbent, scott walker overperforming and barrett is underperforming. we ll bre
number one, it s obvious. red is republican. you see a lot of red. dane county here, this is the key county for democrat, 8% of the population. democrats say their turnout operation worked well there. but tom barrett the democrat getting 60% and scott walker getting 40% right there. barrett needs to be up around 70% in this key county right there. let s come back to the map here a little bit. this is waukesha county. the key county for republicans in this state. 75%, scott walker got just over 70% last time. he s overperforming. as we go from county to county, come up here, brown county, where green bay is, walker getting 60% with 75% of the vote in. that s an improvement from two years ago. you can pick your key county across the state. everything we see so far. the republican incumbent, scott walker overperforming and barrett is underperforming. we ll break it down what it means for the state, for the governor in november. dana bash is joining us and also the former white h