so here, advantage romney. let s go to income. we made the cut at 75,000. lower income is 65%. higher income 35% split. 100,000 is the exit poll split. look where wisconsin slots in, in between illinois and michigan again, not quite as low income as ohio. what does that mean? here are the margins. romney won by a point, most evangelical, lower income, less college educated. illinois, a lot higher income, a lot less evangelical. romney won by double digits. what s the wisconsin number going to be? if you were to do this like spreads, thomas, you would make romney a five-point favorite, and you would say, i wouldn t be surprised if it s somewhere in this range, five to ten points, if demographics are destiny. but turnout is a whole other