Fed Barkin News Today

It’s all about March US payrolls today with consensus expecting another decent job growth of 214k in combination with a slightly lower unemployment rate (3.8% from 3.9) and firm wage pressure (0.3% M/M & 4.1% Y/Y). The rather high consensus bar and this week’s failed test push US yields through the roof suggests that those levels will be able to hold into this week’s close. The dollar proved to be vulnerable when the long end of the curve underperformed (rising inflation expectations?!...

Japanese stock markets and JPY still account for today’s biggest market move in a telling sign about current market momentum. The Nikkei closed slightly over 2% higher. USD/JPY sets a new YTD high at 149.40 with both the psychologic 150 mark and the 2022 (151.95) and 2023 (151.91) tops coming dangerously close.

The GBP/USD pair posts modest losses during the early Asian session on Thursday.

The GBP/USD pair posts modest losses during the early Asian session on Thursday. The recovery of the US Dollar (USD) and US Treasury bond yields exerts some selling pressure on the pair. At the press time, GBP/USD is trading at 1.2665, up 0.01% on the day. Meanwhile, the US Dollar Index (DXY) surges to 102.45, the highest in three weeks.

The dollar loved the combination of higher yields and some risk aversion with the trade-weighted greenback rallying from 101.42 to 102.20. Technically, DXY stays trapped in the downward trend channel since early November. EUR/USD fell from 1.1045 to 1.0942. A firmer floor below core bond yields could help a more firm bottoming out pattern in the dollar as well.

Pound US Dollar Exchange Rate Soars

Outlook: Data today will be critical to the dollar. We get the personal-consumption expenditures price index, where the core is forecast up 0.2% m/m i

In a repeat of previous sessions, the core bond sell-off slowed and even went slightly into reverse during a rather dull European trading session. The peace lasted again until the start of US trading when Treasuries started slipping away without strong trigger. Intraday US yield changes are currently close to zero compared to yesterday’s record closing highs, but they are pushing for a break above 5% (2-yr), 4.5%(5-yr), 4.34% (10-yr) and 4.42% (30-yr).

The USD/CHF pair is looking to stretch its recovery above the immediate resistance of 0.8970 in the Asian session. The Swiss franc asset has rebounded

Fed speakers show growing divergence on how to proceed with monetary policy. Atlanta Fed Bostic (non-voter) is inclined to pause at the June meeting, but he confirmed that the committee is still out on the issue. If he had a bias between going up or down as a next move, it would still be up. Resilient consumer spending and tight labour markets pose upside inflation risks even as the Fed’s earlier tightening measures will start having a bigger impact.