jacking up interest rates, raising bar owing costs. on thursday our first look at u.s. economic growth for the second quarter, another decline in gdp is expected. of course, two quarters of a loss in a row is a sign of a recession, so are we head there had? here is the treasury secretary. the labor market is now extremely strong. we are in a period of transition in which growth is slowly. we re likely to see some slowing of job creation, but i do i don t think that that s a recession. a recession is broad-based weakness in the economy. we re not seeing that now. we re not seeing that now, but here is this from someone who used to have that job, the former treasury secretary larry somers. i think there is a very high likelihood of recession when we ve been in in kind of situation before. recession has essentially always followed when inflation has been high and unemployment has been low. soft landings represent a kind of triumph of hope over experience, i think we re v
At the Money: Forecasting Recessions with Claudia Sahm (January 31, 2024 ) Investors don’t like recessions. But how can they tell if one’s coming? There’s an…
recession has essentially always followed when inflation has been high and unemployment has been low. soft landings represent a kind of triumph of hope over experience, i think we re very unlikely to see one. to be clear forecasting recessions is tricky stuff, but one thing, the data might not point to it until several months after the fact. in fact, you really don t know you are in a recession until you re basically out of it. and as yellen points out, the labor market remains strong. the jobless rate just 3.6%. how cuff a recession with such a strong jobs market? and there are signs that inflation may be peaking, gas prices still falling, now down to $4.36 a gallon this morning, a sign potentially that inflation could be easing. we will get more insight on friday when the fed s favorite measure on inflation is released, the pce index.