Nowhere is the African demographic boom more obvious than in Nigeria, where the current population of 219 million, according to the U.S. Central Intelligence Agency’s (CIA) World Factbook most recent estimate, is projected to increase to around 400 million by 2050, at which point it will likely displace the United States as the third largest country in the world by population. By the end of the century, some credibly project that Nigeria’s population will be greater than China's, where the birth-rate fall has been especially dramatic, leaving it second to only India in populational globally.
There are already signs Biden is making good on his promises. Administration officials spoke out against a corrupt judge who nearly made it onto Guatemala’s constitutional court. The U.S. Congress passed a law to create the Engel List, a directory of corrupt officials in the Northern Triangle who will face sanctions, and Senate Democrats introduced a bill to sanction Honduran President Juan Orlando Hernández for suspected drug-trafficking ties. The U.S. Treasury and Justice Departments have pledged to step up support for local prosecutors.
For reformers to succeed, though, they cannot let the past repeat itself. In the late 2010s, elites in Guatemala and Honduras mounted a powerful backlash against anti-corruption initiatives. Venal judges let the powerful off the hook. Business groups like Guatemala’s CACIF lobbied Washington to retract anti-corruption support. And the region’s legislatures reduced sentences for grift and blocked campaign finance reforms.
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President Biden is adopting a different approach than his predecessor to an increasing number of migrants who are arriving at the southern border after fleeing hardship in their home countries.
News reports cite high numbers of migrants seeking to cross into the United States from Mexico. How does this compare to past surges?
Apprehensions at the U.S. southern border have been on the rise since April 2020, and now number nearly eighty thousand per month. While the upsurge is significant, it is just half of the 2019 peak levels. It also differs in makeup: Today, the majority of migrants are Mexican, not Central American, and they are single adults, not families. This presents different challenges for the United States. Though the numbers are rising, this wave may be easier to manage humanely with fewer minors on the move.