RBI has kept its benchmark interest rate unchanged at 6.5% for more than a year, sticking to a relatively hawkish stance as inflation remains above its 4% target. With uncertainty over prices of vegetables and pulses, the RBI is unlikely to shift its stance anytime soon while expectations of a rate cut have been delayed to the end of the year.
Experts caution on prolonged high pulse prices until new crop in October, impacting food inflation. In April, pulse inflation was 16.8%, with tur at 31.4%, gram at 14.6%, and urad at 14.3%. Government eases import restrictions, including duty-free lentils imports, to address production challenges.
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The Indian government has increased the stock limit for wholesalers of tur and urad dal from 50 metric tonnes to 200 metric tonnes to boost the supply of these pulses in the market. Additionally, the time period for which importers can hold their stocks after clearance has been doubled to 60 days.
The slow onset of monsoon in India has delayed sowing of key crops such as paddy, oilseeds and pulses, as the country has received deficient rainfall, which may lead to lower yield. Private weather forecaster, Skymet, has predicted a "dismal" outlook until the first week of July, which is crucial for preparing fields for the kharif season. Soyabean, which requires a high amount of water, is expected to be one of the most affected crops.