Looked at what might happen if we experienced a recession like the last two recessions to the. Org 9 11 and the International Financial banking crisis weve experienced most recently in 2008, and 9 what we see is that if we were to experience a recession like the combination or combine of those two the average over a 3 year peddler almost a billion dollars in revenue all the Revenue Growth this is showing you the top line which is in the light gray showing you our revenue projects projection that is assumed in the Financial Plan and the dark gray is showing you in a recession what we think will happen with the revenue so as you can see the revenue increases were assuming a recession happening you know in 2017 and this almost immediately we lose all the growth tb the first two years and have negative growth we lose by the third year out we still are no where close to recovery where we otherwise would have been if this were to happen the bottom trying to show you the impacts in terms of t
Plan would also want to point out i have the gentleman from the Controllers Office that answer revenue questions and want to thank thank you to harvey rose and mr. Campbell if the boards budget and Analyst Office in the shared budget plan 0 produced to show the shared trends over the next 5 years so i thought today i would talk about the Key Assumptions workplace the 5 year explain and go over the general fund case essential the cost to operate our government the government we have today over the next 5 years and share fiscal strategies how to bridge the gaps between revenues and expenditures and thinking about what might happy in a recession scenario with our 5 year Financial Plan against to help us think through 0 the impact of on economic downturn should that occur and finally ill talk about the mayors budget that was issued at the same time with the 5 year Financial Plan all our offices should have a copy you if dont feel youve seen the yellow document well be sure to get you one i
Supervisor katie tang as well as commissioner eric mar Supervisor Scott Wiener and supervisor norman yee i want to thank Jennifer Lowe and Charles Kremenak madam clerk, any announcements . Yes. Electronic devices. Completed speaker cards and documents to be included should be submitted to the clerk. Items acted upon today will appear on the march 17 board of supervisors agenda unless otherwise stated okay. Thank you madam clerk colleagues two agenda items one substantive a 5 year budget plan want to thank everyone for this and looking at looking forward to a fruitful next month. Number one the finalized plan for 2015 through 2020 and requesting a mayors office. And to speak on item number one. Good afternoon, supervisors its a pleasure to you here with you, we kickoff the budget season im here to talk to you about the citys proposed 5 year Financial Plan not an action item in front of you by will be in the next several weeks once we complete on update to the plan would also want to poi
Associated with our Public Safety hiring plan plan also assumes the package from november of the increases in the mta baseline the citys minimum wage and the renewal of the Childrens Fund so those restraining order incorporated into the projections and finally we assume that in the first year of the budget which was the second year of last years budget the funding for capital and it are based on what was actually opportunity by i did mayor and the board so im going to go into revenues and talk about expenditures. Ms. Howard just so our community is clear and members of the public those numbers were compiled a few moose good this is to get an action item on the full 5 year plan in the next few weeks. Thats correct three weeks is what were talking about i expect updated numbers in the next week this is the because of the 5 year Financial Plan and well talk about the update in a couple of weeks on the revenue does the Revenue Growth is strong throughout the 5 year frontals assuming there
Expenditures grow more quickly than the revenues are growing our fiscal strategy is really youre not to cut programs and services but to grow at a slower rate instead of growing the cost of government by 23 percent grow at 18 percent that is closer to cip and identify the revenues solutions that what about part of that package so we propose in the plan a number of fiscal strategies to solve the gaps in every year including reviewing Capital Spending and restructuring some of the debt and generating savings and manage the benefit costs the contract we negotiate with the employees as well as the good work both the retirement and Health Services to manage city costs as they generate returns in the Pension System we assume some new ref revenue over and above what is in the plan as a portion of the solving the gap here managing our nonpersonnel costs this is again not making reductions but growing more slowly than the base case it assumes inflation and slightly less increase and then lookin